Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “distributed estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for \(\alpha +\beta \) Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aqueous Bromide Discharges from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants: Points of Origin, Concentration Ranges, and Effluent Treatment Costs

Bromide discharges from coal-fired power plants have received increased attention from regulatory bodies due to their contribution to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in downstream drinking water treatment plants. Here, this paper characterizes the relative contributions of bromide from coal feedstocks and bromine-based mercury control processes, estimates the distribution of bromide concentrations at 85 active coal-fired power plants across the United States (U.S.) with wet flue gas desulfurization units, and estimates the cost of bromide removal from wastewater discharge using year 2020 data. Bromide discharges are estimated at the plant level using a combination of the reported coal rank and composition combusted, estimates of bromide addition in mercury control techniques under multiple halogen addition scenarios, and the estimated flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater flow rate. The median, simulated plant-level estimation of total FGD wastewater flow is 18.3 gallons/min at a bromide concentration of 319 mg/L, equivalent to ~11.6 tonnes/year of bromide discharges to the environment. Next, we evaluated the expected cost of employing the best available technology (BAT) to control bromide discharges in FGD wastewater to prevent contributions to DBP formation. Treatment would need to remove more than 99.8% of bromide to reach the 0.2 mg/L voluntary incentive program (VIP) limit. The total cost of treatment depends on whether disposal is on- or off-site; the average costs for all plants combined come to an average of $110 million ($95.2/kgal) in 2021 U.S. dollars for on-site disposal, or $134 million ($115/kgal) for off-site disposal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) v1.0

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) is a python package that implements low and high-level functionality for performing qualitative and quantitative gamma-ray imaging analyses. Such analyses enable the use of gamma-ray spectrometers and/or imagers to estimate the distribution and quantity of radiological materials in an environment. Free-moving 3D imaging requires additional information about the 3D trajectory and orientation of the system, however all of these methods can be applied to 2D static gamma-ray imaging as well. The package includes methods (MLEM and MAP) for distributed source reconstruction, methods (PSL) for point source reconstruction, the ability to ingest and utilize quantitative detector response functions (for absolute analyses), and the ability to perform 3D estimation of dose-rates from quantitative reconstructions.

Joshi, Tenzing↗

LL18-Signal Analysis-NDD2Ad (Final Report)

Under favorable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially-distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection, and scaling with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning, and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic, and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely-held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The geometry of signal space: a case study of direct mapping between seismic signals and event distribution

SUMMARY Under favourable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal-space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection and scaling, with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the MagLim lens sample from the combination of SOMPZ and clustering and its impact on cosmology

ABSTRACT We present an alternative calibration of the MagLim lens sample redshift distributions from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first 3 yr of data (Y3). The new calibration is based on a combination of a self-organizing-map-based scheme and clustering redshifts to estimate redshift distributions and inherent uncertainties, which is expected to be more accurate than the original DES Y3 redshift calibration of the lens sample. We describe in detail the methodology, and validate it on simulations and discuss the main effects dominating our error budget. The new calibration is in fair agreement with the fiducial DES Y3 n(z) calibration, with only mild differences (<3σ) in the means and widths of the distributions. We study the impact of this new calibration on cosmological constraints, analysing DES Y3 galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements, assuming a Lambda cold dark matter cosmology. We obtain Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.04, σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.07, and S8 = 0.81 ± 0.04, which implies a ∼0.4σ shift in the Ω − S8 plane compared to the fiducial DES Y3 results, highlighting the importance of the redshift calibration of the lens sample in multiprobe cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through December 31, 2019

On April 24, 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted the Project 57 safety experiment in western Emigrant Valley northeast of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site) on lands withdrawn by the Department of Defense (DOD) for the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). The test was performed to (1) assess a technique for estimating plutonium distribution resulting from a nonnuclear detonation, (2) develop biomedical evaluation techniques for use in plutonium-laden environments, (3) evaluate methods of surface decontamination, and (4) evaluate instruments and field procedures for the prompt estimation of alpha contamination (Shreve, 1958). Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the land surface. Following the experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Various radiological surveys were performed in the area and the DOE expanded the demarked Contamination Area (CA) in 2007 by posting signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) outside of the original fence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: (Jan 1 - Dec 31 2018)

During the late 1950s, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted a series of safety experiments to determine if a nuclear device subjected to a large conventional explosives detonation would result in a nuclear yield. The AEC obtained temporary use of a large portion of western Emigrant Valley from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) for one of these experiments: Project 57. Following the Project 57 safety experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Emigrant Valley is part of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). For safety and security reasons, access to the NTTR is controlled using both physical (i.e., fences) and administrative (e.g., signs and postings) controls. Therefore, the public cannot access the Project 57 site and there are no known human receptors that routinely access the site. Project 57 was detonated on April 24, 1957, in Emigrant Valley approximately 13 mi (21 km) northeast of the north end of Yucca Flat. This test was undertaken to develop: (1) a means of estimating immediate distribution and long-term redistribution of plutonium dispersed during a nonnuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in likely plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of decontaminating ground areas, pavements, and building materials; and (4) alpha survey instruments and field monitoring procedures to promptly estimate contaminant deposition. Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the ground surface. Various radiological surveys have been performed in the area since Project 57 was conducted. The AEC delineated the area containing radioactive material based on radioactivity surveys performed shortly after the test was conducted. A designated Contamination Area (CA), marked by a fence, was established later. The distribution of americium-241 (Am-241) in the area was determined again in a 1997 flyover, which showed Am-241 ranging from as much as 70,000 counts per second (cps) at ground zero to background (<70 cps). This survey also documented Am-241 radioactivity on the ground surface beyond the east side CA fence at levels of up to 150 cps. In 2007, the DOE expanded the CA by posting “Contamination Area” signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) beyond the original fence, which formed a new CA boundary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrete Fracture Network Modeling to Estimate Upscaled Parameters for the Topopah Spring, Lava Flow, and Tiva Canyon Aquifers at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

This report describes the results of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) simulations for the Topopah Spring Aquifer (TSA), Lava Flow Aquifer, and Tiva Canyon Aquifer (TCA), at Pahute Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), formerly the Nevada Test Site. The research focuses on calculating upscaled groundwater flow and contaminant transport parameters using DFNs generated according to fracture characteristics observed in the TSA, LFA and TCA at Pahute Mesa. The highly fractured and heterogeneous nature of these aquifers makes them candidates for stochastic DFN modeling of radionuclide transport on a small scale with subsequent upscaling. One hundred independent DFN realizations are generated for each aquifer, and the upscaled parameters for continuum simulations of subsurface flow and transport in fractured media at Pahute Mesa are calculated. Our goal is to implement a modeling approach that can translate parameters to larger-scale models that account for local-scale flow and transport processes, such as channelization of flow and transport along a few well connected, large fractures. Additionally, to simulate advective and advective-diffusive transport through the fracture networks, the Time Domain Random Walk (TDRW) approach is applied to account for matrix diffusion into a finite half-space. Moreover, a novel approach to calculate dynamic (active) fracture surface area to reflect flow channeling is implemented. This work will improve the representation of radionuclide transport processes in largescale, regulatory-focused models by providing estimates of hard-to-measure flow and contaminant transport parameters at large scales. In this report, we (1) show recent results of flow and transport simulations on multiple DFN realizations of the TSA, LFA, TCA; (2) discuss the resulting distributions of estimated upscaled parameters; (3) describe the estimation of upscaled parameters for an equivalent parallel-plate continuum model and (4) present a comparison between simulated transport from the equivalent continuum model and an actual DFN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Distribution function of nuclei from $\mathcal{e}^±$ scattering in the presence of a strong primordial magnetic field

The amplitude of the primordial magnetic field (PMF) is constrained from observational limits on primordial nuclear abundances. Within this constraint, it is possible that nuclear motion is regulated by Coulomb scattering with electrons and positrons (e ± s), while e ± s are affected by a PMF rather than collisions. For example, at a temperature of 10 9 K, thermal nuclei typically experience ~ 10 21 scatterings per second that are dominated by very small angle scattering leading to minuscule changes in the nuclear kinetic energy of order $\mathcal{O}$(1) eV. In this paper the upper limit on the effects of a possible discretization of the e ± momenta by the PMF on the nuclear momentum distribution is estimated under the extreme assumptions that the momentum of the e ± is relaxed before and after Coulomb scattering to Landau levels, and that during Coulomb scattering the PMF is neglected. This assumption explicitly breaks the time reversal invariance of Coulomb scattering, and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is not a trivial steady state solution of the Boltzmann equation under these assumptions. Here we numerically evaluate the collision terms in the Boltzmann equation, and show that the introduction of a special direction in the e ± distribution by the PMF generates no directional dependence of the collisional destruction term of nuclei. Large anisotropies in the nuclear distribution function are then constrained from big bang nucleosynthesis. Ultimately, we conclude that a PMF does not significantly affect the isotropy or big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Microscopic calculation of fission product yields with particle-number projection

Fission fragments' charge and mass distribution is an important input to applications ranging from basic science to energy production or nuclear nonproliferation. In simulations of nucleosynthesis or calculations of superheavy elements, these quantities must be computed from models, as they are needed in nuclei where no experimental information is available. Until now, standard techniques to estimate these distributions were not capable of accounting for fine-structure effects, such as the odd-even staggering of the charge distributions. In this work, we combine a fully microscopic collective model of fission dynamics with a recent extension of the particle number projection formalism to provide the highest-fidelity prediction of the primary fission fragment distributions for the neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu. Here, we show that particle-number projection is an essential ingredient to reproduce odd-even staggering in the charge yields and benchmark the performance of various empirical probability laws that could simulate its effect. This new approach also enables for the first time the realistic determination of two-dimensional isotopic yields within nuclear density functional theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗