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At least 163 records · Page 9

Orbit transfer operations for the Space Shuttle era

Orbit transfer operations are reviewed relative to the objectives, operational factors, and crew model concepts of future mission requirements. The review is based on studies presently underway and on projected needs and goals of the Space Shuttle era. Numerous tradeoff studies and further analyses are needed before the best form of the manned geostationary vehicle becomes fixed. However, the Shuttle can provide the necessary low-orbit logistics service for dispatching manned geostationary missions on as frequent a schedule as will be needed to serve the advanced geostationary satellites of the near future.

Davis, H. P.↗

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Projecting Electric Vehicle Electricity Demands and Charging Loads

After over a century of petroleum dominance, electric vehicles are rapidly disrupting the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes as variable renewables replace dispatchable fossil generators. It is critically important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system, and the value of flexible electric vehicle charging to better balance electricity demand and supply. This talk focuses on methods to project electricity demand for EV charging with high spatiotemporal fidelity to enable electricity system modeling and analysis and summarizes results from recent NREL studies in this area.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Mobile radio alternative systems study. Volume 1: Traffic model

The markets for mobile radio services in non-urban areas of the United States are examined for the years 1985-2000. Three market categories are identified. New Services are defined as those for which there are different expressed ideas but which are not now met by any application of available technology. The complete fulfillment of the needs requires nationwide radio access to vehicles without knowledge of vehicle location, wideband data transmission from remote sites, one- and two way exchange of short data and control messages between vehicles and dispatch or control centers, and automatic vehicle location (surveillance). The commercial and public services market of interest to the study is drawn from existing users of mobile radio in non-urban areas who are dissatisfied with the geographical range or coverage of their systems. The mobile radio telephone market comprises potential users who require access to the public switched telephone network in areas that are not likely to be served by the traditional growth patterns of terrestrial mobile telephone services. Conservative, likely, and optimistic estimates of the markets are presented in terms of numbers of vehicles that will be served and the radio traffic they will generate.

Tucker, W. T.↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance x,ary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are (1) determining, what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major U.S. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimility with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider un-modelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.↗

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance vary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are: (1) determining what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major u.s. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort-topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimality with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider unmodelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.↗

An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

Wheeler, Mark↗

A Study of Performance Portability of Low-bit Fused Matrix-Vector Multiplication Kernels in SYCL

Understanding the causes of performance gaps between a portable programming model and a vendor-specific programming model is important for improving performance portability. This paper studies performance portability of low-bit fused general matrix-vector multiplication kernels in SYCL on vendors’ graphics processing units (GPUs). This work introduces the use case, explains the kernel implementations in detail, evaluates the performance of the CUDA, HIP, and SYCL kernels on datacenter, desktop, and laptop GPUs, and investigates the causes of performance gaps. The results show that loop unrolling, kernel dispatch overhead, and sum reduction contribute to the gaps.

Jin, Zheming [ORNL] (ORCID:000000027197780X)↗

A cross-platform execution engine for the quantum intermediate representation

Hybrid languages like the quantum intermediate representation (QIR) are essential for programming systems that mix quantum and conventional computing models, while execution of these programs is often deferred to a system-specific implementation. Here, we develop the QIR Execution Engine (QIR-EE) for parsing, interpreting, and executing QIR across multiple hardware platforms. QIR-EE uses LLVM to execute hybrid instructions specifying quantum programs and, by design, presents extension points that support customized runtime and hardware environments. We demonstrate an implementation that uses the XACC quantum hardware-accelerator library to dispatch prototypical quantum programs on different commercial quantum platforms and numerical simulators, and we validate execution of QIR-EE on IonQ, Quantinuum, and IBM hardware. Our results highlight the efficiency of hybrid executable architectures for handling mixed instructions, managing mixed data, and integrating with quantum computing frameworks to realize cross-platform execution.

LLVM↗

Analysis of San Francisco Bar Pilot Dispatch Records: Preliminary Report

Maritime pilots licensed by the San Francisco Board of Pilot Commissioners perform safety-critical tasks in a demanding environment, working in all weather and at all times of day and night. Since 1850, San Francisco maritime pilots have been known as Bar Pilots because their duties include guiding ships safely across the large sand bar that lies west of the Golden Gate. Schedules and Work Hours Records for San Francisco Bay Bar Pilots were analyzed to determine the minimum and maximum work periods, the frequency of extended work hours, the frequency of night work and the rotation of work hours. A mathematical model is being applied to predict fatigue in order to identify schedules that may have a high likelihood of fatigue. This presentation provides a progress report on the research thus far.

marine pilots↗

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ocean recovery of Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters.

Cost effective recovery of the expended Space-Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB) from the ocean will result in significant overall cost savings to the Space Shuttle Program. The ocean recovery mission begins with the dispatching of the recovery team to the predicted splashdown area. The SRBs, drogue parachutes and main parachutes must be tracked, located, retrieved, and transported to land where they will be refurbished and recycled for reuse. Trade studies to be conducted will consider the recovery mission requirements and weigh the advantages, disadvantages and costs of various candidate recovery systems. Major parameters effecting the selection of the final system will ensure that the system will meet overall objectives. Large- and small-scale SRB model testing has been conducted to establish characteristics of SRBs during water entry, floating free and under tow.

Junker, L. J.↗

Human Automation Teaming: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

Full autonomy seems to be the goal for system developers in almost every area of the economy. However, as we move from automated systems to autonomous systems, designers have needed to insert humans to oversee automation that has traditionally been brittle or incomplete. This creates its own problems as the operator is usually out of the loop when the automation hands over problems that it cannot handle. To better handle these situations, it has been proposed that we develop human automation teams that have shared goals and objectives to support task performance. This paper will describe an initial model of Human Automation Teaming (HAT) which has three elements: transparency, bi-directional communications, and human-directed execution. Transparency in our model is a method for giving insight into the reasoning behind automated recommendations and actions, bi-directional communication allows the operator to communicate directly with the automation, and finally the automation defers execution to the human. The model was implemented through a number of features on an electronic flight bag (EFB) which are described in the paper. The EFB was installed in a mid-fidelity flight simulator and used by 12 airline pilots to support diversion decisions during off-nominal flight scenarios. Pilots reported that working with the HAT automation made diversion decisions easier and reduced their workload. They also reported that the information provided about diversion airports was similar to what they would receive from ground dispatch, thus making coordination with dispatch easier and less time consuming. These HAT features engender more trust in the automation when appropriate, and less when not, allowing improved supervision of automated functions by flight crews.

Human-Autonomy Teaming↗

CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (“CalCSP”) (Final Technical Report)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage offers a unique and strategic opportunity to support California’s clean energy transition. Unlike photovoltaic (PV) systems, CSP with thermal storage can generate electricity after sunset and during periods of high demand, making it a valuable complement to intermittent renewable resources. CSP also provides synchronous, inertia-contributing generation, long-duration storage, and flexible dispatch—capabilities increasingly important as thermal plants retire. This report summarizes the findings of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market or “CalCSP study,” which evaluated the technical, economic, environmental, and policy factors that influence the deployment of CSP technologies in California. The CalCSP study was conducted to assess how CSP can contribute to California’s long-term decarbonization goals while enhancing grid reliability, supporting local economic development, and making efficient use of land and transmission resources. It draws on detailed modeling of CSP performance and costs, site suitability analysis, policy reviews, and stakeholder engagement across utilities, regulators, developers, and community organizations. The analysis focuses on mature molten-salt tower technology and incorporates lessons learned from the global CSP fleet, distinguishing today’s CSP from earlier first-of-a-kind projects in the U.S. The findings support a more prominent role for CSP in California’s evolving clean energy landscape. With strategic planning, targeted policy support, and continued cost improvements, CSP can complement PV and batteries to deliver reliable, around-the-clock clean electricity—especially in areas with high solar resource and constrained grid capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS): Memory Representation and Procedural Implications for Airborne Communication Modalities

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) has been under development for the past ten years through a joint US Army and NASA cooperative agreement. MIDAS represents multiple human operators and selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators as they interact with simulated systems. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. Specific examples include: nuclear power plant crew simulation, military helicopter flight crew response, and police force emergency dispatch. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communications issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

Human-Centered Technologies and Procedures for Future Air Traffic Management

The use of various methodologies to predict the impact of future Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts and technologies is explored. The emphasis has been on the importance of modeling coordination and cooperation among multiple agents within this system, and on understanding how the interactions among these agents will be influenced as new roles, responsibilities, procedures and technologies are introduced. To accomplish this, we have been collecting data on performance under the current air traffic management system, identifying critical problem areas and looking for examples suggestive of general approaches for solving such problems. Using the results of these field studies, we have developed a set of concrete scenarios centered around future designs, and have studied performance in these scenarios with a set of 40 controllers, dispatchers, pilots and traffic managers.

Smith, Philip↗