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At least 163 records · Page 9

Technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry: Review and assessment of mitigation drivers through 2070

Fully decarbonizing global industry is essential to achieving climate stabilization, and reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050–2070 is necessary to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper assembles and evaluates technical and policy interventions, both on the supply side and on the demand side. It identifies measures that, employed together, can achieve net zero industrial emissions in the required timeframe. Key supply-side technologies include energy efficiency (especially at the system level), carbon capture, electrification, and zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock. There are also promising technologies specific to each of the three top-emitting industries: cement, iron & steel, and chemicals & plastics. These include cement admixtures and alternative chemistries, several technological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking, and novel chemical catalysts and separation technologies. Crucial demand-side approaches include material-efficient design, reductions in material waste, substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials, and circular economy interventions (such as improving product longevity, reusability, ease of refurbishment, and recyclability). Strategic, well-designed policy can accelerate innovation and provide incentives for technology deployment. High-value policies include carbon pricing with border adjustments or other price signals; robust government support for research, development, and deployment; and energy efficiency or emissions standards. These core policies should be supported by labeling and government procurement of low-carbon products, data collection and disclosure requirements, and recycling incentives. In implementing these policies, care must be taken to ensure a just transition for displaced workers and affected communities. Similarly, decarbonization must complement the human and economic development of low- and middle-income countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of Cross-Border Renewable Energy Trading in South Asia [Slides]

India's national renewable energy zones for wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) could become regional green power resources if South Asian countries liberalize their rules for cross-border energy trading (CBET). Similarly, Nepal's wealth of hydropower could be more valuable to Nepal and its neighbors with greater market integration. These are the findings of a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that tested trading scenarios for wind power, solar power, and hydropower among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The NREL study found that wheeling power through India's interstate transmission system (ISTS) could be just as efficient operationally as building new high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines from the renewable energy zones directly to the importing country. This means that CBET integration could substitute for new long-distance HVDC transmission - which could cost billions of dollars - while delivering to all participating countries the same benefits for renewable energy development and decarbonization.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Cross-Border Electricity Trading and Renewable Energy Zones

India's national renewable energy zones for wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) could become regional green power resources if South Asian countries liberalize their rules for cross-border energy trading (CBET). Similarly, Nepal's wealth of hydropower could be more valuable to Nepal and its neighbors with greater market integration. These are the findings of a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that tested trading scenarios for wind power, solar power, and hydropower among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The NREL study found that wheeling power through India's interstate transmission system (ISTS) could be just as efficient operationally as building new high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines from the renewable energy zones directly to the importing country. This means that CBET integration could substitute for new long-distance HVDC transmission - which could cost billions of dollars - while delivering to all participating countries the same benefits for renewable energy development and decarbonization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Why Plan for Utility-Scale Solar?

The Solar@Scale project is a DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office-funded collaboration between the American Planning Association and International City/County Management Association (ICMA) to provide best practices and guidance for local communities in planning for large-scale PV development. As a member of the Solar@Scale advisory committee, I have been asked to present on trends and land use projections for large-scale solar to demonstrate why local governments will likely see growing demand for solar energy development. These slides represent an introduction to projections from NREL's Standard Scenarios, Cambium, LBNL's Utility-Scale Solar report, and other data sources on the level of solar energy development that can be expected across the country.

48 EE - Weatherization and Intergovernmental Progr↗

Creating a Research Enterprise Framework for Transdisciplinary Networking to Address the Food–Energy–Water Nexus

Urbanization, population growth, and the accelerating consumption of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources bring unprecedented challenges for economic, environmental, and social (EES) sustainability. It is imperative to understand the potential impacts of FEW systems on the realization of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as the world transitions from natural ecosystems to managed ecosystems at an accelerating rate. A major obstacle is the complexity and emergent behavior of FEW systems and associated networks, for which no single discipline can generate a holistic understanding or meaningful projections. We propose a research enterprise framework for promoting transdisciplinarity and top-down quantification of the interrelationships between FEW and EES systems. Relevant enterprise efforts would emphasize increasing FEW resource accessibility by improving coordinated interplays across sectors and scales, expanding and diversifying supply-chain networks, and innovating technologies for efficient resource utilization. This framework can guide the development of strategic solutions for diminishing the competition among FEW-consuming sectors in a region or country, and for minimizing existing inequalities in FEW availability when a sustainable development agenda is implemented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar Energy Research Institute for India and the United States (SERIIUS): Lessons and Results from a Binational Consortium

This book describes the development, functioning, and results of a successful binational program to promote significant scientific advances in Earth-abundant photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), advanced process/manufacturing technologies, multiscale modeling and reliability testing, and analysis of integrated solar energy systems. SERIIUS is a consortium between India and the United States dedicated to developing new solar technologies and assessing their potential impact in the two countries. The consortium consists of nearly 50 institutions including academia, national laboratories, and industry, with the goal of developing significant new technologies in all areas of solar deployment. In addition, the program focused on workforce development through graduate students, post-doctoral students, and an international exchange program. Particular emphasis was placed on the following efforts: creating disruptive technologies in PV and CSP through high-impact fundamental and applied research and development (R&D); identifying and quantifying the critical technical, economic, and policy issues for solar energy development and deployment in India; overcoming barriers to technology transfer by teaming research institutions and industry in an effective project structure; building a new platform for binational collaboration using a formalized R&D project structure, along with effective management, coordination, and decision processes; creating a sustainable network and workforce development program from which to build large collaborations and fostering a collaborative culture and outreach programs. This includes using existing and new methodologies for collaboration based on advanced electronic and web-based communication to facilitate functional international teams. The book summarizes the general lessons learned from these experiences.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States

Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.

Cost analysis↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

H2@Scale Program Multi-Party Cooperative Research and Development Agreement: California Hydrogen Infrastructure Research Consortium Task (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00754)

Many stakeholders are working on hydrogen and fuel cell products, markets, requirements, mandates, and policies. California has been leading the way for hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) deployment. This leadership has advanced a hydrogen network that is not duplicated anywhere in the United States and is unique in the world for its focus on providing a retail fueling experience. In addition, the advancements have identified many lessons learned for hydrogen infrastructure development, deployment, and operation. Other interested states and countries are using California's experience as a model case, making success in California paramount to enabling market acceleration and uptake in the United States. The technical research capability of the national laboratories can be used to assist California in decisions and evaluations, as well as to verify solutions to problems impacting the industry. Because these challenges cannot be addressed by one agency or one laboratory, a hydrogen research consortium has been organized to combine and collaborate. The collaboration aims to ensure that data are available to evaluate projects and inform decision makers, independently verify and validate component solutions, provide experimental results for future hydrogen infrastructure, increase the availability of technical experts for quick-need issues for California hydrogen infrastructure development, deployment, operation, and technology advances. The proposed tasks include data collection from operational stations, component failure fix verification (i.e. nozzle freeze lock), new fueling methods for medium and heavy duty applications, and ensuring hydrogen quality is maintained. U.S. leadership for hydrogen technologies is rooted in California, a location for implementing many H2@Scale pathways such as reducing curtailment and stranded resources, reducing petroleum use and emissions, and developing and creating jobs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Rising infrastructure inequalities accompany urbanization and economic development

Impending global urban population growth is expected to occur with considerable infrastructure expansion. However, our understanding of attendant infrastructure inequalities is limited, highlighting a critical knowledge gap in the sustainable development implications of urbanization. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2019, we examine country-level population-adjusted biases in infrastructure distribution within and between regions of varying urbanization levels and derive four key findings. First, we find long-run positive associations between infrastructure inequalities and both urbanization and economic development. Second, our estimates highlight increasing infrastructure inequalities across most of the countries examined. Third, we find greater future infrastructure inequality increases in the global south, where inequalities will rise more in countries with substantial urban primacy. Fourth, we find that infrastructure inequality may evolve differently than economic inequalities. Overall, advancing sustainable development vis-à-vis urbanization and economic development will require intentional infrastructure planning for spatial equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Strategic Trade Atlas 2014-2018. Country- and Commodity-Based Views

A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

Strategic Trade Atlas 2015-2019: Country- and Commodity-Based Views

A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This study focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues;(e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Presentation: SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This paper focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues; (e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SMR Current Status: Development Needs and Global Perspectives

Defined as nuclear reactors with a power output up to 300 megawatts electrical (MWe) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and targeted for multipurpose applications, small modular reactors (SMRs) have been recognized as a very promising, clean, affordable, and sustainable energy source by many countries. At present, more than 80 SMRs are under design, development, demonstration, deployment, and beyond (4D+) phases worldwide. This study focuses on the current world status of SMRs and focuses on the necessary developments to accelerate the process of adopting SMRs as a major energy source globally. SMRs are not a new concept, but they do represent a new vision for older concepts if the challenges inherent within them are mitigated with strategic and realistic solution approaches. The major challenges for SMRs 4D+ like any new reactors are: (a) qualifying the advanced fuel-to-reactor design; (b) supporting rapid scaled/prototypic experimentations; (c) maintaining local and global codes, standards, and licensing; (d) supply chain issues;(e) effective cradle-to-grave nuclear fuel cycle and fuel material transportation, and (f) mitigating financial and environmental risks. These upfront challenges can be mitigated with a synergistic solution approach among the various stakeholders: industry, academia, research, government, and international entities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Tigers at a crossroads: Shedding light on the role of Bangladesh in the illegal trade of this iconic big cat

Abstract Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand.

Uddin, Nasir↗