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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Footprints of the QCD Crossover on Cosmological Gravitational Waves at Pulsar Timing Arrays

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have reported evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies, possibly originating in the early Universe. We show that the spectral shape of the low-frequency (causality) tail of GW signals sourced at temperatures around T ≳ 1 GeV is distinctively affected by confinement of strong interactions (QCD), due to the corresponding sharp decrease in the number of relativistic species, and significantly deviates from ∼ f 3 commonly adopted in the literature. Bayesian analyses in the NANOGrav 15 years and the previous international PTA datasets reveal a significant improvement in the fit with respect to cubic power-law spectra, previously employed for the causality tail. While no conclusion on the nature of the signal can be drawn at the moment, our results show that the inclusion of standard model effects on cosmological GWs can have a decisive impact on model selection. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Franciolini, Gabriele (ORCID:0000000268929145)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions

his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Robustness of Spectrogram Classifiers with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

Signal analysis and classification is fraught with high levels of noise and perturbation. Computer-vision-based deep learning models applied to spectrograms have proven useful in the field of signal classification and detection; however, these methods aren't designed to handle the low signal-to-noise ratios inherent within non-vision signal processing tasks. While they are powerful, they are currently not the method of choice in the inherently noisy and dynamic critical infrastructure domain, such as smart-grid sensing, anomaly detection, and non-intrusive load monitoring. Currently, these models can be brittle, which makes them susceptible to noisy input. This also means they have sub-optimal stability of explanation outputs. Experts and technicians using these models to make decisions in real world scenarios need assurance that a model is performing as it is supposed to. The classification or prediction outputs it generates should be sound and grounded, not likely to change in the presence of shifting noise landscapes. In this work, we explore the idea of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDE's) to improve the robustness of models trained to classify time series data and the effect of NSDE's on the explainability of outputs. We then test the effectiveness of these approaches by applying them to a non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) dataset that consists of simulated harmonic signals injected into a real building.

Brogan, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Business Models on PV-Battery Dispatch Decisions and Market Value

PV-battery hybrid projects dominate interconnection queues in some regions in the United States, but few projects have been operational long enough to assess how the hybrid capabilities may be used in practice. We interview plant operators and analyze empirical dispatch data for eleven large-scale PV-battery hybrids in three organized wholesale markets in the United States. We use the dispatch data and wholesale market prices to estimate the market value of our sample hybrids in 2020. The empirical increase in market value of a PV-battery hybrid relative to a standalone PV plant varies by project and ranges from $\$$1 to $\$$48/MWhsolar. The premium is driven by market, location, technical characteristics of the PV and battery asset, and battery dispatch strategies. In contrast to the widespread assumptions in the PV-battery hybrid modeling literature, only three of the eleven project operators optimize battery usage for wholesale market revenue as merchant plants. Instead, the majority of operators in the sample have alternate objectives. For example, load-serving entities target peak load reductions, incentive program participants focus on compliance with program requirements, and large energy consumers prioritize resiliency and utility bill minimization. Understanding prevalent dispatch signals and the degree of alignment with system-wide grid needs can increase the market value of PV-battery hybrids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members’ confidence is well calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Improved Decision Making for the Smarter Grid: Geomagnetic Disturbance Implicit Modeling Uncertainty Quantification

Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.

grid analysis↗