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At least 163 records · Page 9

Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

Dieterly, D. L.↗

Automatic Detection of Electric Power Troubles (ADEPT)

ADEPT is an expert system that integrates knowledge from three different suppliers to offer an advanced fault-detection system, and is designed for two modes of operation: real-time fault isolation and simulated modeling. Real time fault isolation of components is accomplished on a power system breadboard through the Fault Isolation Expert System (FIES II) interface with a rule system developed in-house. Faults are quickly detected and displayed and the rules and chain of reasoning optionally provided on a Laser printer. This system consists of a simulated Space Station power module using direct-current power supplies for Solar arrays on three power busses. For tests of the system's ability to locate faults inserted via switches, loads are configured by an INTEL microcomputer and the Symbolics artificial intelligence development system. As these loads are resistive in nature, Ohm's Law is used as the basis for rules by which faults are located. The three-bus system can correct faults automatically where there is a surplus of power available on any of the three busses. Techniques developed and used can be applied readily to other control systems requiring rapid intelligent decisions. Simulated modelling, used for theoretical studies, is implemented using a modified version of Kennedy Space Center's KATE (Knowledge-Based Automatic Test Equipment), FIES II windowing, and an ADEPT knowledge base. A load scheduler and a fault recovery system are currently under development to support both modes of operation.

Wang, Caroline↗

Automatic Detection of Electric Power Troubles (ADEPT)

Automatic Detection of Electric Power Troubles (A DEPT) is an expert system that integrates knowledge from three different suppliers to offer an advanced fault-detection system. It is designed for two modes of operation: real time fault isolation and simulated modeling. Real time fault isolation of components is accomplished on a power system breadboard through the Fault Isolation Expert System (FIES II) interface with a rule system developed in-house. Faults are quickly detected and displayed and the rules and chain of reasoning optionally provided on a laser printer. This system consists of a simulated space station power module using direct-current power supplies for solar arrays on three power buses. For tests of the system's ablilty to locate faults inserted via switches, loads are configured by an INTEL microcomputer and the Symbolics artificial intelligence development system. As these loads are resistive in nature, Ohm's Law is used as the basis for rules by which faults are located. The three-bus system can correct faults automatically where there is a surplus of power available on any of the three buses. Techniques developed and used can be applied readily to other control systems requiring rapid intelligent decisions. Simulated modeling, used for theoretical studies, is implemented using a modified version of Kennedy Space Center's KATE (Knowledge-Based Automatic Test Equipment), FIES II windowing, and an ADEPT knowledge base.

Wang, Caroline↗

Evapotranspiration Based Irrigation Trials Examine Water Requirement, Nitrogen Use, and Yield of Romaine Lettuce in the Salinas Valley

Cool season vegetables require adequate soil moisture to assure that maximum yield and quality are achieved. On California’s central coast, where the majority of cool season vegetables are produced in the US, long-term overpumping of irrigation water has reduced groundwater levels and led to environmental degradation. Two evapotranspiration (ET) based irrigation field trials were performed near Salinas CA (USA) to determine if ET-based irrigation scheduling could conserve water while producing romaine lettuce (cv. Sun Valley) of commercially viable yield. Sprinklers were used for seed germination and crop establishment. Four drip irrigation treatments were then imposed using a randomized complete block design with six replications. The CropManage decision support model was used to estimate the full (100%) crop water requirement based mainly on ET replacement. Other treatments included 50% 75% and 150% of the full water requirement. The 100% treatment received 185 mm of water in 2015 and 247 mm in 2016, both of which were well below prior guidance and grower reports. Yields from the 100% and 150% treatments were not significantly different and were similar to industry average, while yields were significantly lower for the 50% and 75% treatments. The 100% treatment had the highest water use efficiency, and the 100% and 150% treatments together had the highest nitrogen recovery efficiency. Irrigation of romaine near the 100% ET replacement level can potentially reduce environmental impacts associated with nitrate leaching and surface runoff.

CropManage decision support system↗

Optimization in the design of a 12 gigahertz low cost ground receiving system for broadcast satellites. Volume 1: System design, performance, and cost analysis

The technical and economical feasibility of using the 12 GHz band for broadcasting from satellites were examined. Among the assigned frequency bands for broadcast satellites, the 12 GHz band system offers the most channels. It also has the least interference on and from the terrestrial communication links. The system design and analysis are carried out on the basis of a decision analysis model. Technical difficulties in achieving low-cost 12 GHz ground receivers are solved by making use of a die cast aluminum packaging, a hybrid integrated circuit mixer, a cavity stabilized Gunn oscillator and other state-of-the-art microwave technologies for the receiver front-end. A working model was designed and tested, which used frequency modulation. A final design for the 2.6 GHz system ground receiver is also presented. The cost of the ground-terminal was analyzed and minimized for a given figure-of-merit (a ratio of receiving antenna gain to receiver system noise temperature). The results were used to analyze the performance and cost of the whole satellite system.

Ohkubo, K.↗

Energy recovery from solid waste

A recent group study on the problem of solid waste disposal provided a decision making model for a community to use in determining the future for its solid waste. The model is a combination of the following factors: technology, legal, social, political, economic and environmental. An assessment of local or community needs determines what form of energy recovery is desirable. A market for low pressure steam or hot water would direct a community to recover energy from solid waste by incineration to generate steam. A fuel gas could be produced by a process known as pyrolysis if there is a local market for a low heating value gaseous fuel. Solid waste can also be used directly as a fuel supplemental to coal in a steam generator. An evaluation of these various processes is made.

Dalton, C.↗

Technology assessment: What should it be?

The necessity of uncovering unsuspected relationships in proposed actions is discussed along with the feasibility of using decision theoretical models to cope with problems of uncertainty in the future-oriented analyses characteristic of assessments. It is shown that it is necessary to integrate the results of technology assessment with other program analyses and that results of technology assessment be supplied in a form that permits integration with other information.

Black, G.↗

A Monte Carlo approach to competition strategy

Variables taken into account in glider flight strategy decisions are modeled. These include height of clouds, distance between thermals, time of day, water ballast, present altitude, weather changes, lift organization, and distance to goal, as well as the strength of the next thermal. Results of the Monte Carlo atmospheric model are discussed.

Teter, M. P.↗

Distributed semantic networks and CLIPS

Semantic networks of frames are commonly used as a method of reasoning in many problems. In most of these applications the semantic network exists as a single entity in a single process environment. Advances in workstation hardware provide support for more sophisticated applications involving multiple processes, interacting in a distributed environment. In these applications the semantic network may well be distributed over several concurrently executing tasks. This paper describes the design and implementation of a frame based, distributed semantic network in which frames are accessed both through C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) expert systems and procedural C++ language programs. The application area is a knowledge based, cooperative decision making model utilizing both rule based and procedural experts.

Snyder, James↗

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

Exact Solutions to Time-dependent Mdps

We describe an extension of the Markov decision process model in which a continuous time dimension is included in the state space. This allows for the representation and exact solution of a wide range of problems in which transitions or rewards vary over time. We examine problems based on route planning with public transportation and telescope observation scheduling.

Boyan, Justin A.↗

Space Based Communications

Current space lift launches on the Eastern and Western Range require extensive ground-based real-time tracking, communications and command/control systems. These are expensive to maintain and operate and cover only limited geographical areas. Future spaceports will require new technologies to provide greater launch and landing opportunities, support simultaneous missions, and offer enhanced decision support models and simulation capabilities. These ranges must also have lower costs and reduced complexity while continuing to provide unsurpassed safety to the public, flight crew, personnel, vehicles and facilities. Commercial and government space-based assets for tracking and communications offer many attractive possibilities to help achieve these goals. This paper describes two NASA proof-of-concept projects that seek-to exploit the advantages of a space-based range: Iridium Flight Modem and Space-Based Telemetry and Range Safety (STARS). Iridium Flight Modem uses the commercial satellite system Iridium for extremely low cost, low rate two-way communications and has been successfully tested on four aircraft flights. A sister project at Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) using the Globalstar system has been tested on one rocket. The basic Iridium Flight Modem system consists of a L1 carrier Coarse/Acquisition (C/A)-Code Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, an on-board computer, and a standard commercial satellite modem and antennas. STARS uses the much higher data rate NASA owned Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), a C/A-Code GPS receiver, an experimental low-power transceiver, custom built command and data handler processor, and digitized flight termination system (FTS) commands. STARS is scheduled to fly on an F-15 at Dryden Flight Research Center in the spring of 2003, with follow-on tests over the next several years.

Simpson, James↗

Human-Interaction Challenges in UAV-Based Autonomous Surveillance

Autonomous UAVs provide a platform for intelligent surveillance in application domains ranging from security and military operations to scientific information gathering and land management. Surveillance tasks are often long duration, requiring that any approach be adaptive to changes in the environment or user needs. We describe a decision- theoretic model of surveillance, appropriate for use on our autonomous helicopter, that provides a basis for optimizing the value of information returned by the UAV. From this approach arise a range of challenges in making this framework practical for use by human operators lacking specialized knowledge of autonomy and mathematics. This paper describes our platform and approach, then describes human-interaction challenges arising from this approach that we have identified and begun to address.

Freed, Michael↗

Capacity of Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) on Gaussian and Webb Channels

This article computes the capacity of various idealized soft-decision channels modeling an optical channel using an avalanche photodiode detector (APD) and pulse-position modulation (PPM). The capacity of this optical channel depends in a complicated way on the physical parameters of the APD and the constraints imposed by the PPM orthogonal signaling set. This article attempts to identify and separate the effects of several fundamental parameters on the capacity of the APD-detected optical PPM channel. First, an overall signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) parameter is de ned such that the capacity as a function of a bit-normalized version of this SNR drops precipitously toward zero at quasi-brick-wall limits on bit SNR that are numerically the same as the well-understood brick-wall limits for the standard additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. A second parameter is used to quantify the effects on capacity of one unique facet of the optical PPM channel (as compared with the standard AWGN channel) that causes the noise variance to be higher in signal slots than in nonsignal slots. This nonuniform noise variance yields interesting capacity effects even when the channel model is AWGN. A third parameter is used to measure the effects on capacity of the difference between an AWGN model and a non-Gaussian model proposed by Webb (see reference in [2]) for approximating the statistics of the APD-detected optical channel. Finally, a fourth parameter is used to quantify the blending of a Webb model with a pure AWGN model to account for thermal noise. Numerical results show that the capacity of M-ary orthogonal signaling on the Webb channel exhibits the same brick-wall Shannon limit, (M ln 2)=(M 1), as on the AWGN channel ( 1:59 dB for large M). Results also compare the capacity obtained by hard- and soft-output channels and indicate that soft-output channels o er a 3-dB advantage.

Dolinar, S.↗

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

risk analysis↗