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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Variational autoencoders for at-source data reduction and anomaly detection in high energy particle detectors

Detectors in next-generation high-energy physics experiments face several daunting requirements, such as high data rates, damaging radiation exposure, and stringent constraints on power, space, and latency. To address these challenges, machine learning in readout electronics can be leveraged for smart detector designs, enabling intelligent inference and data reduction at-source. Variational autoencoders (VAEs) offer a variety of benefits for front-end readout; an on-sensor encoder can perform efficient lossy data compression while simultaneously providing a latent space representation that can be used for anomaly detection. Results are presented from low-latency and resource-efficient VAEs for front-end data processing in a futuristic silicon pixel detector. Encoder-based data compression is found to preserve good performance of off-detector analysis while significantly reducing the off-detector data rate as compared to a similarly sized data filtering approach. Furthermore, the latent space information is found to be a useful discriminator in the context of real-time sensor defect monitoring. Together, these results highlight the multifaceted utility of autoencoder-based front-end readout schemes and motivate their consideration in future detector designs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning-accelerated 3D carbon storage reservoir pressure forecasting based on data assimilation using surface displacement from InSAR

Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Local Interstellar Medium Properties and Deuterium Abundances for the Lines of Sight Toward HR 1099, 31 Comae, beta Ceti, and beta Cassiopeiae

We analyze Goddard High-Resolution Spectrograph data to infer the properties of local interstellar gas and the Deuterium/Hydrogen (D/H) ratio for lines of sight toward four nearby late-type stars-HR 1099, 31 Comae, beta Ceti, and beta Cassiopeiae. The data consist of spectra of the hydrogen and deuterium Lyman-(alpha) lines, and echelle spectra of the Mg IIh and k lines toward all stars except beta Cas. Spectra of the RS CVn-type spectroscopic binary system HR 1099 were obtained near opposite quadratures to determine the intrinsic stellar emission line profile and the interstellar absorption separately. Multiple-velocity components were found toward HR 1099 and beta Cet. The spectra of 31 Com and beta Cet are particularly interesting because they sample lines of sight toward the north and south Galactic poles, respectively, for which H I and D I column densities were not previously available. The north Galactic pole appears to be a region of low hydrogen density like the 'interstellar tunnel' toward epsilon CMa. The temperature and turbulent velocities of the Local InterStellar Medium (LISM) that we measure for the lines of sight toward HR 1099, 31 Com, beta Cet, and beta Cas are similar to previously measured values (T approx.7000 K and xi = 1.0-1.6 km/s). The deuterium/hydrogen ratios found for these lines of sight are also consistent with previous measurements of other short lines of sight, which suggest D/H approx. 1.6 x 10(sup -5). In contrast, the Mg abundance measured for the beta Cet line of sight (implying a logarithmic depletion of D(Mg) = +0.30 +/- 0.15) is about 5 times larger than the Mg abundance previously observed toward alpha Cen, and about 20 times larger than all other previous measurements for the LISM. These results demonstrate that metal abundances in the LISM vary greatly over distances of only a few parsecs.

Piskunov, Nikolai↗

Determination of cloud parameters from infrared sounder data

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) plan is concerned with the need to develop a uniform global cloud climatology as part of a broad research program on climate processes. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) has been approved as the first project of the WCRP. The ISCCP has the basic objective to collect and analyze satellite radiance data to infer the global distribution of cloud radiative properties in order to improve the modeling of cloud effects on climate. Research is conducted to explore an algorithm for retrieving cloud properties by utilizing the available infrared sounder data from polar-orbiting satellites. A numerical method is developed for computing cloud top heights, amount, and emissivity on the basis of a parameterized infrared radiative transfer equation for cloudy atmospheres. Theoretical studies were carried out by considering a synthetic atmosphere.

Yeh, H.-Y. M.↗

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Rheology of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Inferred from Satellite Radar Interferometry Data using an Inverse Control Method

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is surrounded by large floating ice shelves that spread under their own weight into the ocean. Ice shelf rigidity depends on ice temperature and fabrics, and is influenced by ice flow and the delicate balance between bottom and surface accumulation. Here, we use an inverse control method to infer the rigidity of the Ronne Ice Shelf that best matches observations of ice velocity from satellite radar interferometry. Ice rigidity, or flow law parameter B, is shown to vary between 300 and 900 kPa a(sup 1/3). Ice is softer along the side margins due to frictional heating, and harder along the outflow of large glaciers, which advect cold continental ice. Melting at the bottom surface of the ice shelf increases its rigidity, while freezing decreases it. Accurate numerical modelling of ice shelf flow must account for this spatial variability in mechanical characteristics.

ice velocity↗

Carbon monoxide mixing ratio inference from gas filter radiometer data

A new algorithm has been developed which permits, for the first time, real time data reduction of nadir measurements taken with a gas filter correlation radiometer to determine tropospheric carbon monoxide concentrations. The algorithm significantly reduces the complexity of the equations to be solved while providing accuracy comparable to line-by-line calculations. The method is based on a regression analysis technique using a truncated power series representation of the primary instrument output signals to infer directly a weighted average of trace gas concentration. The results produced by a microcomputer-based implementation of this technique are compared with those produced by the more rigorous line-by-line methods. This algorithm has been used in the reduction of Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites, Shuttle, and aircraft data.

Wallio, H. A.↗

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data acquisition and reduction for the University of Virginia superconducting magnetic suspension and balance facility

The problems associated with data acquisition and reduction in the U. Va. superconducting magnetic suspension and balance facility are similar to those in free-flight ranges (or tunnels). The model undergoes a quasi-six-degree-of-freedom motion which must be monitored both in position and angular orientation from which the aerodynamics must be inferred. The data acquisition problem is made more difficult because geometric constraints prevent direct visual access to the model in the Mach 3 wind tunnel. The methods, accuracies, and problems associated with the acquisition of data are discussed.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Data acquisition and reduction for the U. Va. superconducting magnetic suspension and balance facility.

The problems associated with data acquisition and reduction in the University of Virginia superconducting magnetic suspension and balance facility are similar to those in free-flight ranges (or tunnels). The model undergoes a 'Quasi-six-degree-of-freedom' motion which must be monitored both in position and angular orientation from which the aerodynamics must be inferred. The data acquisition problem is made more difficult because geometric constraints prevent direct visual access to the model in the Mach 3 wind tunnel. The methods, accuracies and problems associated with the acquisition of data are discussed.-

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Distribution of Mount St. Helens dust inferred from satellites and meteorological data

Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Laver, J. D.↗

Search for magnetically-induced signatures in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We search for signals of magnetically-induced effects in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory. We apply two different methods. One is a search for sets of events that show a correlation between their arrival direction and the inverse of their energy, which would be expected if they come from the same point-like source, they have the same electric charge and their deflection is relatively small and coherent. We refer to these sets of events as “multiplets”. The second method, called “thrust”, is a principal axis analysis aimed to detect the elongated patterns in a region of interest. We study the sensitivity of both methods using a benchmark simulation and we apply them to data in two different searches. The first search is done assuming as source candidates a list of nearby active galactic nuclei and starburst galaxies. The second is an all-sky blind search. We report the results and we find no statistically significant features. We discuss the compatibility of these results with the indications on the mass composition inferred from data of the Pierre Auger Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Designing optimal experiments: an application to proton Compton scattering

Interpreting measurements requires a physical theory, but the theory’s accuracy may vary across the experimental domain. To optimize experimental design, and so to ensure that the substantial resources necessary for modern experiments are focused on acquiring the most valuable data, both the theory uncertainty and the expected pattern of experimental errors must be considered. We develop a Bayesian approach to this problem, and apply it to the example of proton Compton scattering. Chiral Effective Field Theory (χEFT) predicts the functional form of the scattering amplitude for this reaction, so that the electromagnetic polarizabilities of the nucleon can be inferred from data. With increasing photon energy, both experimental rates and sensitivities to polarizabilities increase, but the accuracy of χEFT decreases. Our physics-based model of χEFT truncation errors is combined with present knowledge of the polarizabilities and reasonable assumptions about experimental capabilities at HI γ S and MAMI to assess the information gain from measuring specific observables at specific kinematics, i.e. to determine the relative amount by which new data are apt to shrink uncertainties. The strongest gains would likely come from new data on the spin observables Σ 2x and Σ 2x' at ω≃140 to 200 MeV and 40° to 120°. These would tightly constrain γ E1E1 –γ E1M2 . New data on the differential cross section between 100 and 200 MeV and over a wide angle range will substantially improve constraints on α E1 –β M1 , γ π and γ M1M1 –γ M1E2 . Good signals also exist around 160 MeV for Σ 3 and Σ 2z' . As a result, such data will be pivotal in the continuing quest to pin down the scalar polarizabilities and refine understanding of the spin polarizabilities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗