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At least 163 records · Page 9

High-Resolution Fire Weather Index Data for the Conterminous US (1980–2099), Version 1

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution fire weather index datasets calculated from observation (gridMet, Livneh, Daymet V4), reanalysis (AgERA5), downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Aside from the daily FWI datasets, we also include a set of FWI extreme indicators at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, including 1) fwixx: maximum FWI; 2) fwisa: mean FWI. For annual fwisa, it refers to the season with the maximum seasonal average; 3) fwils: Length of fire season over a specified period, where fire season is defined as the days exceeding the median value of the normalized FWI during the reference period (1980-1984); 4) fwixd: Number of extreme fire weather days over a specified period, where extreme day is defined as the day with FWI > the 95th percentile of the FWI during the reference period (1980-1984). All FWI datasets cover 1980-2020 baseline and the model simulated products including the downscaled products additionally include 2021-2099 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling (Final Report)

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis as observed from space

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be a powerful proxy for photosynthesis and gross primary productivity (GPP). The recently launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) features the required spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio to retrieve SIF from space. Here, we present a downscaling method to obtain 500 m spatial resolution SIF over California. We report daily values based on a 14 d window. TROPOMI SIF data show a strong correspondence with daily GPP estimates at AmeriFlux sites across multiple ecosystems in California. We find a linear relationship between SIF and GPP that is largely invariant across ecosystems with an intercept that is not significantly different from zero. Measurements of SIF from TROPOMI agree with MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices – the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation index (NIR$_v$) – at annual timescales but indicate different temporal dynamics at monthly and daily timescales. TROPOMI SIF data show a double peak in the seasonality of photosynthesis, a feature that is not present in the MODIS vegetation indices. The different seasonality in the vegetation indices may be due to a clear-sky bias in the vegetation indices, whereas previous work has shown SIF to have a low sensitivity to clouds and to detect the downregulation of photosynthesis even when plants appear green. We further decompose the spatiotemporal patterns in the SIF data based on land cover. The double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis is due to two processes that are out of phase: grasses, chaparral, and oak savanna ecosystems show an April maximum, while evergreen forests peak in June. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis corroborates the phase offset and spatial patterns driving the double peak. The EOF analysis further indicates that two spatiotemporal patterns explain 84 % of the variability in the SIF data. Results shown here are promising for obtaining global GPP at sub-kilometer spatial scales and identifying the processes driving carbon uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DSGAN

This study develops a neural network-based approach for emulating high-resolution modeled precipitation data with comparable statistical properties but at greatly reduced computational cost. The key idea is to use combination of low-and high- resolution simulations to train a neural network to map from the former to the latter. Specifically, we define two types of CNNs, one that stacks variables directly and one that encodes each variable before stacking, and we train each CNN type both with a conventional loss function, such as mean square error (MSE), and with a conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN), for a total of four CNN variants. We compare the four new CNN-derived high-resolution precipitation results with precipitation generated from original high resolution simulations, a bilinear interpolater and the state-of-the-art CNN-based super-resolution (SR) technique. Results show that the SR technique produces results similar to those of the bilinear interpolator with smoother spatial and temporal distributions and smaller data variabilities and extremes than the original high resolution simulations. While the new CNNs trained by MSE generate better results over some regions than the interpolator and SR technique do, their predictions are still not as close as the original high resolution simulations. The CNNs trained by CGAN generate more realistic and physically reasonable results, better capturing not only data variability in time and space but also extremes such as intense and long-lasting storms. The new proposed CNN-based downscaling approach can downscale precipitation from 50~km to 12~km in 14~min for 30~years

LIU, ZHENGCHUN↗

Downscaling Synthetic Populations to Realistic Residential Locations

High-fidelity pattern of life (PoL) models require realistic origin points for predictive trip modeling. This paper develops and demonstrates a reproducible method using open data to match synthetic populations generated from census surveys to plausible residential locations (building footprints) based on housing attributes. This approach presents promise over extant methods based on housing density, particularly in small neighborhood areas with heterogeneous land-use.

Tuccillo, Joe↗

Global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections

This dataset provides the results of a global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections. The total projection variance for a set of climate metrics is partitioned into contributions from: scenario uncertainty, model/GCM uncertainty, downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty, and interannual variability. The contribution from each source is expressed as a percentage of the total variance. Seven climate metrics are analyzed: Annual average temperature (avg_tas.nc) Annual total precipitation (tot_pr.nc) Annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (max_tasmax.nc) Annual maximum 1-day precipitation (max_pr.nc) Annual number of extremely hot days (hot_days.nc) Annual number of extremely wet days (wet_days.nc) Annual number of dry days (dry_days.nc) Extremely hot/wet days are defined to occur when temperature/precipitation exceeds the local 99th percentile defined over 1980-2014. Dry days are defined to occur when daily precipitation is less than 1mm. all_metrics_timesliced.nc gives the results for all metrics averaged over three 20-year periods: 2020-2039, 2050-2069, 2080-2099. For more details on the methods, see: Lafferty & Sriver, Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6, npj Climate & Atmospheric Science (2023) An interactive visualization of this data can be found at: https://lafferty-sriver-2023-downscaling-uncertainty.msdlive.org

Lafferty, David↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (MEME-CCS)

This effort employs and adapts an existing, rigorous multiscale electricity modeling platform at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NET) from the ARPA-E FLECCS program. NREL's modeling platform includes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model, which projects future electricity generation mixes at sub-state-level resolution that are downscaled to the unit-level to enable hourly, zonal or nodal electricity production cost modeling in the PLEXOS model. The resulting hourly price data from PLEXOS is provided to technology developers under the ARPA-E FLECCS program to enable technology-specific economic analysis. The ReEDS-PLEXOS modeling suite is well-established for examining electric sector futures with high renewable energy penetrations, energy storage, electrification, and distributed generation. The key advancement proposed herein utilizes collaboration with CCS experts at the University of Wyoming and the FLECCS teams to create innovative methods for representing CCS and NET in the ReEDS and PLEXOS models. Expanded technology options, new operational parameterizations, and detailed data defining CO2 capture, transportation, and storage systems are being integrated into these models to allow an unprecedented combination of scope and resolution for exploring the future of CCS and NET. The resulting capabilities will take advantage of high-performance computing resources to permit wide-ranging scenario analysis to assess CCS and NET deployment under alternative CO2 prices, fossil fuel prices, electricity demand growth, and other electric sector characteristics. Final outcomes will include publicly available hourly grid operation and price data for any U.S. region of interest along with open-access capacity expansion tools for evaluating CCS/NET systems. These products will help an emerging CCS/NET industry in the United States by providing economics-driven guidance to technology developers while informing policy and investment decisions in the public and private sectors.

air capture↗

Forty-year hydropower generation reanalysis for Conterminous United States

First published in 2022, the RectifHyd dataset provides hydrologically consistent estimates of monthly net generation for approximately 1,500 hydropower plants in the United States, addressing a gap in industrial surveys that have collected monthly generation data from only ~10% of plants post-2003. Here we present RectifHydPlus—an extended and enhanced dataset that improves on both the proxy information and temporal downscaling methodology adopted in RectifHyd. In addition to providing updated estimates of historical monthly generation for 590 plants with >10 MW nameplate capacity from 1980 through 2019, RectifHydPlus adds a hydrological control dataset that isolates the influence of historical water availability on generation. The new hydrological control dataset is suited to applications seeking to represent the capabilities of the contemporary fleet subject to historical interannual variability in climate. RectifHydPlus also includes a forty-year, daily-resolution, spill-adjusted water release time series for each dam, allowing users to aggregate generation estimates to the desired temporal resolution.

Hydroelectricity↗

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Addressing climate mitigation while meeting global electrification goals will require major transitions from fossil-fuel dependence to large-scale renewable energy deployment. However, renewables require significant land assets per unit energy and could come at high cost to ecosystems, creating potential conflicts between global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Here, we explore the potential biodiversity implications of alternative future global electrification pathways as depicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs), i.e., alternative trends in societal development. We examined the intersection of high-resolution estimates of global energy densities for ten renewable and conventional technologies with global richness data to estimate technology-specific biodiversity footprints (species per GWh), whereas a Cumulative Biodiversity Impact (CBI) score was used to assess land and biodiversity outcomes of alternative scenarios. Downscaled electricity generation scenarios (2020-2100) were also constrained by alternative land conservation and energy development policies. Unexpectedly, variation among SSPs did not exhibit a clear tradeoff between global climate mitigation and CBI. Rather, CBIs were an outcome of total infrastructure development to meet electricity demand (from population growth and GDP) and the total magnitude of renewable energy development and storage technologies. Renewables assembled along a spectrum from land sharing to sparing. At the land sharing end, biomass-powered electricity from dedicated crops contributed the most to biodiversity impacts due to low energy density, whereas land-sparing technologies (solar) caused more-intense land degradation, but in smaller areas. Our results suggest that local land conservation practices and strategies promoting energy diversification could have greater implications for future biodiversity conflicts than global socioeconomic drivers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced CMIP6 Climate Projections Across the Conterminous United States

This dataset comprises high-resolution climate projections at 1/24 degree grid (~4km) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) that are part of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, primarily based on the computer vision approach called super-resolution. We train two separate networks: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). The networks are trained using Daymet observations, originally available at a 1 km resolution. For training purposes, the Daymet data is interpolated to 1/24 degree (~4km), 0.25 degree and 1 degree, which serve as high, intermediate and low-resolution inputs respectively. For each of the SRCNN and SRGAN network, we use a two-step resolution enhancement, the first step generates 4x refinement from 1 degree to 0.25 degree and the second step generates 6x refinement from 0.25 degree to 1/24 degree (~4km). We downscale daily scale precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for the six CMIP6 GCMs for 1980 to 2019 in the historical period and 2020 to 2059 in the near-term future under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 and 245 (SSP585 and SSP245) emission scenarios. We also perform double bias-correction with Daymet observations using a quantile mapping approach, first for GCMs prior to making predictions at 1 degree grid and second after making final predictions at ~4km.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Relationships between summertime surface albedo and melt pond fraction in the central Arctic Ocean: The aggregate scale of albedo obtained on the MOSAiC floe

As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), the HELiX uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during summer 2020. Albedo measurements were obtained with stabilized pyranometers, and melt pond fraction was calculated from orthomosaic imagery from a surface-imaging multispectral camera. This study analyzed HELiX flight data to provide insights on the temporal and spatial evolution of albedo and melt pond fraction of the MOSAiC floe during the melt season as it drifted south through Fram Strait. The surface albedo distributions showed peak values changing from high albedo (0.55–0.6) to lower values (0.3) as the season advanced. Inspired by methods developed for satellite data, an algorithm was established to retrieve melt pond fraction from the orthomosaic images. We demonstrate that the near-surface observations of melt pond fraction were highly dependent on sample area, offering insight into the influence of subgrid scale features and spatial heterogeneity in satellite observations. Vertical observations conducted with the HELiX were used to quantify the influence of melt pond scales on observed surface albedo as a function of sensor footprint. These scaling results were used to link surface-based measurements collected during MOSAiC to broader-scale satellite data to investigate the influence of surface features on observed albedo. Albedo values blend underlying features within the sensor footprint, as determined by the melt pond size and concentration. This study framed the downscaling (upscaling) problem related to the airborne (surface) observations of surface albedo across a variety of spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ORBIT-2: Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling

Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation model for global, hyper-resolution climate downscaling. ORBIT-2 incorporates two key innovations: (1) Residual Slim ViT (Reslim), a lightweight architecture with residual learning and Bayesian regularization for efficient, robust prediction; and (2) TILES, a tile-wise sequence scaling algorithm that reduces self-attention complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling long-sequence processing and massive parallelism. ORBIT-2 scales to 10 billion parameters across 65,536 GPUs, achieving up to 4.1 ExaFLOPS sustained throughput and 74–98% strong scaling efficiency. It supports downscaling to 0.9 km global resolution and processes sequences up to 4.2 billion tokens. On 7 km resolution benchmarks, ORBIT-2 achieves high accuracy with R2 scores in range of 0.98–0.99 against observation data.

Wang, Xiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165451943)↗