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At least 163 records · Page 9

Correction to “COCOMO2: A Coarse-Grained Model for Interacting Folded and Disordered Proteins”

Biomolecular interactions are essential in many biological processes, including complex formation and phase separation processes. Coarse-grained computational models are especially valuable for studying such processes via simulation. Here, we present COCOMO2, an updated residue-based coarse-grained model that extends its applicability from intrinsically disordered peptides to folded proteins. This is accomplished with the introduction of a surface exposure scaling factor, which adjusts interaction strengths based on solvent accessibility, to enable the more realistic modeling of interactions involving folded domains without additional computational costs. COCOMO2 was parametrized directly with solubility and phase separation data to improve its performance on predicting concentration-dependent phase separation for a broader range of biomolecular systems compared to the original version. COCOMO2 enables new applications including the study of condensates that involve IDPs together with folded domains and the study of complex assembly processes. COCOMO2 also provides an expanded foundation for the development of multiscale approaches for modeling biomolecular interactions that span from residue-level to atomistic resolution.

Molecular interactions↗

Assessing Current and Future Infrastructure Hazards

Project Objective Execute intelligent analytics via an advanced analytical framework, to assess the current state of offshore infrastructure, evaluate infrastructure life, and identify technologies to reduce infrastructure hazards, costs, and extend infrastructure life. Approach &amp; Results thus Far• Build comprehensive dataset• Perform data-driven analytics to evaluate infrastructure integrity<p> 1. Remaining lifespan</p><p> 2. Likelihood of future risk</p><p>• Apply data-driven advanced spatial, statistical, and Machine Learning (ML) models to quantify existing infrastructure integrity</p><p>• Release data and models through a smart, online platform hosted by Energy Data eXchange (EDX)</p>

Romeo, Lucy F.↗

Microchannel-based Membrane-less Extraction of Li from Unconventional Lithium Sources & the Separation of REE

This final report provides an overview of the Project's entire duration, covering July 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. It primarily focuses on the achievements, technological developments, and unique challenges the team faced while working on separating and extracting Lithium from produced waters. The project's primary aim was to create an integrated, high-throughput, membrane-less, and modular microfluidic platform that could extract Lithium from unconventional sources. We have successfully met all goals and milestones envisioned in the SOPO document. The most critical primary milestones, including the Go-No-Go milestone (refer to the Gantt chart in the Appendices), were successfully accomplished. We demonstrated phase separation (>90%) and extraction (>85%) performance in the MPSE using synthetic, and representative produced water composition feed at 50 ml/min total flow through MPSE 36. We have also performed a parametric study of the MPSE operations, beyond the scope of SOPO, exploring operating conditions of current and broader interest. The extended investigation of operational parameters is concurrent with our efforts to seek further development of the MPSE technology beyond the scope of the Project. Along these lines of development, we have made efforts to be responsive to DOE calls for technological developments of other types of resources (beyond PW) for the recovery of Critical Materials and higher TRL development (beyond TRL 4). During the work on this Project, we developed and implemented three innovative technical approaches that emerged from our efforts to successfully meet the Project milestones. The innovative & original technical approaches developed and implemented in this Project are now the contributions to process engineering that could be clearly credited to the Project. First, Convergent Design Approach is a comprehensive feedforward & feedback loop of four design phases: i) design for functionality, ii) design for manufacturing, iii) design for sustainability, and iv) design for market. Next was Process Intensification. A major aim of this Project was to create an innovative phase separation & extraction microscale-based technology for Li separation – thus the words microchannel-based in the Project title. A microscale-based technology is intrinsically in the center of the Process Intensification domain as defined by its unique principles. Therefore, Process Intensification was implicitly envisioned in the Project’s SOPO. Lastly, Time Scale Analysis is a novel tool for discovering the needs and directions of Process Intensification implementations in any process technology. This Project is fully credited for developing and implementing the three novel technical approaches mentioned above. These are general contributions to process engineering that emerged from this Project. Beyond the original SOPO scope, the OSU-U.Pitt research group utilized a Convergent Design methodology, integrating first-principles mathematical modeling with experimental validation on the Minimum Development Vehicle. By creating these Digital Twins, the team rapidly assessed manufacturing iterations to support TEA analysis. This framework further enabled the development of advanced Surface Modification Techniques, where hydrophobic and oleophobic coating strategies were optimized via Digital Twin tools and validated through rigorous 100-hour longevity testing. TEA Analysis: The closing efforts of this Project were focused on the TEA analysis. TEA analysis had two primary functions: i) enabling critical assessments of design variations withing 10 the Concurrent Design Approach, thus enabling evolution of the MPSE design to reach faster- better-cheaper alternatives; and ii) to create a bridge between the accomplishments of this Project and future projects of higher TRL, beyond TRL 6 level. It is important to note that the TEA model created in the Project stirred the technological solutions for the recovery of critical materials toward a vision of a very profitable modular plant that has unique zero-waste water discharge signature. More importantly, thanks to our experimental performance data and conservative assumptions, the TEA model predicts minimal technological and investment risks. Low cost of a modular unit of a nominal capacity of [1000 tons of Li 2 CO 3 /year] positions the MPSE based technology within the reach of community investors, thus offering a paradigm shift in the development of critical technologies. The project successfully navigated two primary challenges: solvent selection and manufacturing adaptation. Restricted by the SOPO to existing literature for lithium recovery, the team identified a critical need for a "material excellence program" to develop next-generation solvents, eventually concluding with a preliminary investigation into promising Ionic Liquids (ILs). Simultaneously, COVID-19 supply chain disruptions forced a pivot from traditional manufacturing to advanced additive methods at ATAMI-OSU. By transitioning from stainless steel to 3D-printed polymer substrates, the team achieved a transformative three-order-of- magnitude reduction in manufacturing costs and compressed prototyping timelines from several months to just two days. The MPSE technology offers significant energy, environmental, and economic advantages by overcoming the traditional bottlenecks of phase-separation hardware and contactor size. Unlike conventional mixer-settlers or membrane-based systems, MPSE operates without moving parts or fouling-prone membranes, achieving robust performance even with challenging, viscous, or particulate-heavy feeds. Key performance metrics include an energy intensity reduction of 5–50x (3–40 kJ/m 3 ) compared to incumbent technologies and a dramatic reduction of processing time to under 60 seconds, which drastically reduces the physical plant footprint. These technical efficiencies translate into superior economic outcomes; for a 100 t/year Li 2 CO 3 facility, implementing MPSE is projected to nearly halve contactor CAPEX (from $\$$6.08M to $\$$3.01M) and significantly increase the project's Net Present Value (NPV), derisking new investment and enabling distributed critical-mineral processing configurations. The commercialization of MPSE technology is being spearheaded by Vigsur Dynamics Inc., which has adopted a structured, parallel approach to technical and business development since its formation in January 2026. Following extensive customer discovery and engagement with the Oregon State University accelerator, Vigsur Dynamics is working to establish a business model that transitions from pilot demonstrations to modular hardware sales, ultimately aiming for a "build-own-operate" service strategy. Current technical milestones—including 100 hours of continuous operation, superior energy efficiency, and successful 6-unit modular scale-up— provide a foundation for this transition. Backed by ongoing IP licensing and a growing network of industrial and venture advisors, the company is actively de-risking the platform to replace conventional mixer-settler systems in the critical minerals market.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 1

Due to continuing global energy market trends, driven heavily by the abundant preserves of natural gas, there is an immediate need to reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) for the current domestic nuclear power industry and for future reactor developments. This is to ensure that nuclear power generation remains an economically competitive and viable option in the energy market. O&M costs include labor-intensive preventive maintenance (PM) programs, which involve manually-performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequency and time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of their condition. This has resulted in an expensive, labor-centric business model to achieve high capacity factors. Fortunately, there are technologies (advanced sensors, data analytics, and risk assessment methodologies) that can enable the transition from a labor-centric business model to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will result in a significant reduction of PM activities, laying the foundation for real-time condition assessment of plant assets, reducing overall labor and part costs. To enable this transition, PKMJ Technical Services LLC is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (operated by the Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) and the Public Services Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC in the Integrated Risk-Informed Condition-Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform Project. In this report, the configuration of a digital cloud platform using Microsoft Azure is discussed, data from the PSEG Salem Nuclear Generating Station Units 1 & 2 are imported into a digital cloud platform, and the data is used for an evaluation of several key areas: cost impact analysis, risk-informed model development, and preventive maintenance strategy optimization. First, the cost impact analysis reviews which plant assets are potential good candidates for condition-based monitoring. Next, INL utilized the data in their local environment to develop the risk-informed model; which provides estimates of failure rates and probability of failures of assets based upon their past performance. The developed model is performed on assets selected from the cost impact analysis. Lastly, engineers assess the preventive maintenance strategy for the selected assets at PSEG against maintenance strategies in the nuclear industry for similar assets to potentially identify acceptable justification for the extension of current maintenance frequencies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Inverse Analysis with Variational Autoencoders: A Comparison of Shallow and Deep Networks

Inverse problems are applied to determine unknown properties by matching observational data with a physical model that often takes many parameters as input. To overcome the underconstrained nature of inverse problems and achieve good performance, an approach is presented involving regularization with a technique known as a variational autoencoder (VAE), which is trained to map a high-dimensional parameter space with a complex structure to a low-dimensional latent space with a simple structure. We apply this approach to unconditioned realizations of the parameters (heterogeneous hydraulic fields) for a hydrogeological inverse problem. Two types of hydraulic conductivity fields are used to evaluate the characterization for the different levels of heterogeneity complexity of the physical inputs. This approach keeps the computational cost of generating the training data low. The reason is unconditioned realizations neither rely on the observational data used to perform the inverse analysis nor require any groundwater flow model forward runs. In addition, this approach applies regularization on a low-dimensional latent space from the VAE and increases optimization efficiency through automatic differentiation. Furthermore, two different neural network (NN) structures are tested for their utility in using the VAE for inverse analysis. The performance of a deep, convolutional neural network strongly depends on the dimensionality of the latent space, which requires tuning. In contrast, a shallow, dense neural network provides consistently accurate characterization without tuning. Furthermore, our approach evaluates the advantages of the shallow, dense neural network over the deep, convolutional one and enables future application to a wide range of inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Condition monitoring and anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems

The modern industrial environment is equipping myriads of smart manufacturing machines where the state of each device can be monitored continuously. Such monitoring can help identify possible future failures and develop a cost-effective maintenance plan. However, it is a daunting task to perform early detection with low false positives and negatives from the huge volume of collected data. This requires developing a holistic machine learning framework to address the issues in condition monitoring of high priority components and develop efficient techniques to detect anomalies that can detect and possibly localize the faulty components. This paper presents a comparative analysis of recent machine learning approaches for robust, cost-effective anomaly detection in cyber-physical systems. While detection has been extensively studied, very few researchers have analyzed the localization of the anomalies. We show that supervised learning outperforms unsupervised algorithms. For supervised cases, we achieve near-perfect accuracy of 98% (specifically for tree-based algorithms). In contrast, the best-case accuracy in the unsupervised cases was 63%—the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) exhibits similar outcomes as an additional metric.

Marfo, William↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fermilab PIP-II machine protection system digitized data noise elimination scheme and its FPGA implementation

In Fermilab's PIP-II machine protection system, beam loss signals from various detectors are digitized at 125 MS/s. Noise from both high-frequency sources and low-frequency 60 Hz AC power equipment can contaminate the data. To suppress noise across these ranges—especially 60 Hz and its harmonics, which overlap with beam loss signal frequencies—advanced digital processing beyond standard filtering is required. Several real-time functional blocks were simulated and tested on an FPGA: (1) a dual time-constant discharging integrator filter, (2) a de-ripple baseline extraction and storage block, and (3) a fast-recovery discharging integrator. The nonlinear IIR integrator filter removes high-frequency noise and feeds into the baseline extractor. Upon detecting abrupt beam loss, it switches to a longer time constant to prevent baseline distortion. The de-ripple block calculates a valid baseline by averaging over multiple 60 Hz periods, storing results in a 4096-word FPGA RAM. This baseline is subtracted from raw data before integration by the fast-recovery block, which resets quickly after use. All blocks achieved expected performance and were successfully implemented on a low-cost FPGA.

Wu, Jinyuan [Fermilab]↗

Status Report on Fast Flux Test Facility Mechanistic Fuel Failure Experiment Analysis with BISON for Post Irradiation Examination Support

The renewed interest in metallic U-Zr nuclear fuel alloy has led to a drive for deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving the phenomena observed under irradiation conditions. The Department of Energy Advanced Fuel Campaign has developed infrastructure to support metallic fuel development, including Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) of legacy Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Mechanistic Fuel Failure (MFF) experiments. The PIE performed on legacy FFTF MFF experiments gives insight on metallic fuel performance and can address the lack of knowledge and scarcity of reliable data identified in several studies over recent years. Unfortunately, PIE efforts can cost significant time and resources which can impede the progress of metallic U-Zr fuel development. Metallic U-Zr fuel performance modeling can be used to inform PIE efforts on regions of interest for relevant investigations and can help understand phenomena observed in PIE. This report demonstrates the current progress of FFTF MFF fuel performance simulations using the BISON fuel performance code and discusses the support provided by simulation to PIE efforts. Progress in temperature, profilometry, fission gas release, plenum pressure, and zirconium redistribution simulation results have been demonstrated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advancing Ethanol-to-Jet cost Effectiveness via direct conversion to n -Butene-Rich olefins and Co-Product Valorization

Ethanol is a promising feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production; however, conventional routes face significant energy and cost challenges, particularly due to the ethanol dehydration step to ethylene. Here, this study leverages breakthrough experimental data to perform comprehensive techno-economic and life-cycle assessments of an innovative ethanol-to-jet process. The process employs a single-step catalytic conversion, enabled by multifunctional Cu-ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst, to directly upgrade ethanol into a mixed olefin stream rich in n-butene. The single-step conversion eliminates the costly ethanol dehydration step in the conventional process. High selectivity toward n-butene offers key advantages: it simplifies downstream oligomerization into jet-range hydrocarbons and enables the co-production of renewable n-butene alongside sustainable aviation fuel. The analysis estimates a minimum fuel selling price as low as $\$$2.50 per gallon, whether using corn ethanol or cellulosic ethanol from corn stover. Life cycle CO 2 equivalent emissions are projected to be as low as 10.6 g CO 2 eq/MJ sustainable aviation fuel, representing over 70% reduction compared to conventional petroleum-based jet fuel. This one-step ethanol upgrading approach not only facilitates SAF and n-butene co-production but also provides operational flexibility. The ability to tailor product outputs allows the ethanol-to-jet process to adapt to varying feedstocks, incentive programs, and market dynamics, ultimately enhancing the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel production.

Xu, Yiling [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

OrbNet Denali: A machine learning potential for biological and organic chemistry with semi-empirical cost and DFT accuracy

We present OrbNet Denali, a machine learning model for an electronic structure that is designed as a drop-in replacement for groundstate density functional theory (DFT) energy calculations. The model is a message-passing graph neural network that uses symmetryadapted atomic orbital features from a low-cost quantum calculation to predict the energy of a molecule. OrbNet Denali is trained on a vast dataset of 2.3 × 10 6 DFT calculations on molecules and geometries. This dataset covers the most common elements in biochemistry and organic chemistry (H, Li, B, C, N, O, F, Na, Mg, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Br, and I) and charged molecules. OrbNet Denali is demonstrated on several well-established benchmark datasets, and we find that it provides accuracy that is on par with modern DFT methods while offering a speedup of up to three orders of magnitude. For the GMTKN55 benchmark set, OrbNet Denali achieves WTMAD-1 and WTMAD-2 scores of 7.19 and 9.84, on par with modern DFT functionals. For several GMTKN55 subsets, which contain chemical problems that are not present in the training set, OrbNet Denali produces a mean absolute error comparable to those of DFT methods. For the Hutchison conformer benchmark set, OrbNet Denali has a median correlation coefficient of R 2 = 0.90 compared to the reference DLPNO-CCSD(T) calculation and R 2 = 0.97 compared to the method used to generate the training data (ωB97X-D3/def2- TZVP), exceeding the performance of any other method with a similar cost. Similarly, the model reaches chemical accuracy for noncovalent interactions in the S66x10 dataset. For torsional profiles, OrbNet Denali reproduces the torsion profiles of ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP with an average mean absolute error of 0.12 kcal/mol for the potential energy surfaces of the diverse fragments in the TorsionNet500 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards

This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Structure-aware graph neural network based deep transfer learning framework for enhanced predictive analytics on diverse materials datasets

Abstract Modern data mining methods have demonstrated effectiveness in comprehending and predicting materials properties. An essential component in the process of materials discovery is to know which material(s) will possess desirable properties. For many materials properties, performing experiments and density functional theory computations are costly and time-consuming. Hence, it is challenging to build accurate predictive models for such properties using conventional data mining methods due to the small amount of available data. Here we present a framework for materials property prediction tasks using structure information that leverages graph neural network-based architecture along with deep-transfer-learning techniques to drastically improve the model’s predictive ability on diverse materials (3D/2D, inorganic/organic, computational/experimental) data. We evaluated the proposed framework in cross-property and cross-materials class scenarios using 115 datasets to find that transfer learning models outperform the models trained from scratch in 104 cases, i.e., ≈90%, with additional benefits in performance for extrapolation problems. We believe the proposed framework can be widely useful in accelerating materials discovery in materials science.

Chemistry↗

Advancing Grid Resilience through Smart Charge Management: Findings from Maryland’s Pilot

This report presents research findings from a four-year Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot program conducted by Maryland’s largest electric utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), and Delmarva Power & Light (DPL)—to evaluate strategies for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and enhancing grid stability. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory collaborated with all project partners and examined the effectiveness of Time-of-Use (TOU) and Load Balancing (LB) strategies in managing peak demand, deferring costly infrastructure upgrades, and reducing grid constraints at the feeder level. Using charging data from over 4,600 EV drivers, the study analyzed SCM’s impact on the distribution systems of BGE and Pepco, which consists of over 2000 feeders. Unlike prior research that focused on system-wide trends or synthetic feeders, this analysis offers granular, feeder-level insights based on real-world operational data. It highlights how transformer density, load profiles, and infrastructure constraints influence smart charging performance. Results show feeder-level conditions play a crucial role in SCM effectiveness, with most feeders benefiting more from LB, while TOU-based SCM may be sufficient for others. By 2035, LB reduced peak charging loads by 27% on average, compared to 23% under TOU-based SCM, though some feeders saw reductions exceeding 35%, while others experienced minimal impact. Feeders with higher transformer utilization and limited capacity benefited more from LB, which more effectively distributed charging demand during off-peak hours. Beyond reducing grid constraints, SCM offers long-term operational and financial benefits. By shifting EV charging demand strategically, utilities can optimize asset utilization, delay infrastructure investments, and enhance grid performance. In terms of infrastructure upgrade deferrals, at the feeder level, LB consistently reduced peak charging loads and resulting infrastructure upgrade costs, particularly in high EV enrollment areas, decreasing the number of overloaded transformers by up to 35%, while TOU-based SCM achieved 20-30% reductions depending on feeder characteristics. At the system level, LB has the potential to defer total upgrade costs by $\$$186 million for BGE, compared to $\$$159 million under TOU-based SCM. For Pepco, TOU-based SCM performed slightly better, deferring upgrade costs by $\$$30 million, compared to $\$$29 million under LB. Section 4.5 reviews some of the system differences between BGE and Pepco. However, as EV adoption scales, TOU-based SCM will introduce secondary peak charging loads, reinforcing the need for more advanced, adaptive SCM approaches to prevent new grid challenges. As EV adoption continues to grow, feeder-level managed charging strategies will be essential for mitigating grid stress, improving infrastructure efficiency, and maintaining energy affordability for consumers. This report provides critical insights for utilities, Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), and state agencies on the role of feeder-specific smart charging in infrastructure planning, policy development, and grid modernization. The findings underscore the importance of tailored, data-driven SCM solutions that align with local grid conditions, ensuring a resilient, cost-effective transition to increasing EV adoption while safeguarding distribution system performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗