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At least 163 records · Page 9

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cost analysis of alternative large-scale high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis hydrogen production facilities

We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.

Balance of plant (BOP) process equipment↗

Shared mooring system designs and cost estimates for wave energy arrays

For floating renewable energy devices to become more cost-efficient and commercially scalable, their mooring system designs must be low-cost and suited for large-scale installations. Large arrays of floating devices, such as wave energy converters (WECs), will likely be designed with an individual mooring system for each device in the array. However, new mooring technology advancements provide options to use shared mooring lines to connect adjacent devices to one another, reducing the total number of anchors in the array, thereby reducing material use and cost. Here, this paper explores the design, modeling, and cost analysis of shared mooring systems for various sizes of arrays consisting of heaving oscillating water column (OWC) WECs. Shared mooring systems for WEC arrays sized in 2 x N and N x N grid layouts are designed to meet the relevant design standards, checking their performance with a nonlinear time-domain dynamic simulation, and the costs of each are calculated and compared. Several assumptions are taken in the design process to produce efficient results, providing a preliminary optimization for guidance on design decisions rather than a full, detailed design analysis. Mooring system costs per WEC were found to decrease as the number of WECs in the array increase, up to certain array sizes. The 2 x 3 array had the lowest mooring system cost per WEC out of all arrays considered, with a 60% cost reduction relative to using individual mooring systems. The 3 x 3 and 4 x 4 arrays achieved a 50% cost per WEC reduction. In addition to these significant cost reductions, the shared mooring system designs can provide advantages through smaller mooring system footprints, lower installation times, and less seabed disturbance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Component innovations for lower cost mechanical vapor compression

Despite significant capital and operating costs, mechanical vapor compression (MVC) remains the preferred technology for challenging brine concentration applications. Here, this work seeks to assess the dependence of MVC costs on feedwater salinity and desired water recovery and to quantify the value of improved component performance or reduced component costs for reducing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) of MVC. We built a cost optimization model coupling thermophysical, heat and mass transfer, and technoeconomic models to optimize and identify low cost MVC system designs as a function of feedwater salinity and water recovery. The LCOW ranges over 3.6 to 6.1 $\$$/m 3 for seawater feed salinities of 25–150 g/kg and water recoveries of 40–80 %. We then perform sensitivity analysis on parameter inputs to isolate irreducible costs and determine high value component innovation targets. The LCOW was most sensitive to evaporator material costs and performance, including the overall heat transfer coefficient in the evaporator. Process and material innovations such as polymer-composite evaporator tubes that reduce evaporator costs by 25 % without reducing heat transfer performance by more than 10 % would result in MVC cost reductions of 8 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Levelized Cost of Exergy Framework

Exergy is the amount of energy within a substance or within a transfer of energy that can be used to produce work or some other useful output when interacting with some reference environment. Two different energy systems that produce the same output with the same exergetic efficiency must necessarily have the same amount of exergy input, even if the amount of energy input to the two systems is vastly different. For example, a low-grade heat-driven desalination would require far more energy input than a reverse osmosis (RO) plant producing the same amount of water, but if their exergetic efficiencies were the same, they would require the same amount of exergy input. Thus, comparisons between different energy sources on the basis of energy is not always appropriate. Instead, a comparison on a per unit exergy basis provides more insight on the cost-effectiveness of different energy sources and systems. In this presentation, we describe a framework for analyzing the levelized cost of exergy (LCOEx) for both inputs and outputs of various energy systems. Our framework illustrates how the cost per unit exergy of a system's energy source, as well as the exergetic efficiency of the system, greatly affect the cost of the system output. We use the levelized cost of electricity as a benchmark value for LCOEx, due to electricity's ubiquity as an energy source, and because it is relatively inexpensive on a per unit exergy basis. The LCOEx of various heat sources are then compared to the LCOEx of electricity. Medium- and high-grade industrial heat (> 150 degrees C) produced by natural gas tends to have an LCOEx on par with electricity. This is due to the low cost of natural gas, as well as the high exergy content of heat at higher temperatures. Meanwhile, low-grade heat tends to be an expensive exergy source, owing to the low exergy content of the low-grade heat. We first apply our framework to desalination, where RO has come to dominate, due to the low LCOEx of the energy source (electricity) and relatively high exergetic efficiency of RO compared to thermal desalination systems. We then use this framework to highlight an opportunity for dehumidification systems to experience a similar cost improvement as desalination has. If an electrically-driven, high exergetic efficiency dehumidification system were developed (such as the membrane-based dehumidification systems proposed in literature), it would use a low cost exergy source with a high exergetic efficiency and could potentially lower the cost of dehumidification in the way that RO has done for desalination. Finally, we apply our framework to various fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, gasoline, etc.) and energy systems across different sectors (desalination, dehumidification, vehicles, etc.) to understand the variation in the cost of exergy input and exergetic efficiency of different systems and technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of Life Support Recycling and Resupply

Brief human space missions supply all the crew's water and oxygen from Earth. The multiyear International Space Station (ISS) program instead uses physicochemical life support systems to recycle water and oxygen. This paper compares the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of recycling to the LCC of resupply for potential future long duration human space missions. Recycling systems have high initial development costs but relatively low durationdependent support costs. This means that recycling is more cost effective for longer missions. Resupplying all the water and oxygen requires little initial development cost but has a much higher launch mass and launch cost. The cost of resupply increases as the mission duration increases. Resupply is therefore more cost effective than recycling for shorter missions. A recycling system pays for itself when the resupply LCC grows greater over time than the recycling LCC. The time when this occurs is called the recycling breakeven date. Recycling will cost very much less than resupply for long duration missions within the Earth-Moon system, such as a future space station or Moon base. But recycling would cost about the same as resupply for long duration deep space missions, such as a Mars trip. Because it is not possible to provide emergency supplies or quick return options on the way to Mars, more expensive redundant recycling systems will be needed.

recycling↗

The Impact of Lower Launch Cost on Space Life Support

The development of commercial launch systems has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. NASA's Space Shuttle had a cost of about $1.5 billion to launch 27,500 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), $54,500/kg. SpaceX's Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. Space launch costs were very high for decades, typically about $20,000/kg, and it was understood that this high launch cost made it necessary for long human missions to recycle water and oxygen to reduce logistics mass. Short missions such as Apollo or Shuttle used stored and resupplied life support materials, but for a much longer mission such as the International Space Station (ISS), recycling saves logistics mass and reduces launch cost. The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) will be computed for resupply logistics and for a recycling system similar to that on the ISS. The LCC includes the costs of development, launch, and operations. The new low launch cost makes open loop life support much cheaper than before. Direct logistics resupply would be less costly than recycling for future human missions, such as a long term moon base, a Mars mission, or a future space station in LEO.

life support↗

Advancing Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Performance and Cost Using Silica Storage Media

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) is an electricity storage system that is suitable for long-duration energy storage (10-1000 h) due to its low marginal cost of energy capacity. We present a techno-economic model of a PTES system that uses particle thermal energy storage. Particles have low costs and can be operated over a wide temperature range leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs compared to other PTES designs. We show how the round-trip efficiency, specific power output, capital cost, and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) depend on parameters such as the pressure ratio, heat exchanger approach temperature and pressure loss, and maximum temperature. We compare particle-PTES (P-PTES) performance to PTES which uses liquid thermal energy storage - i.e. molten salt hot storage and methanol cold storage (MS-PTES). We find that using silica particles for storage advances PTES technology: P-PTES can be operated at higher maximum temperatures than MS-PTES. Furthermore, P-PTES can achieve lower approach temperatures in the heat exchangers than MS-PTES without increasing capital costs, because P-PTES uses direct-contact heat transfer in fluidized bed heat exchangers. As a result, we find that P-PTES systems achieve higher round-trip efficiency than MS-PTES (66 % versus 57 %) and lower LCOS (e.g. 0.115 +- 0.03 $/kWhe versus 0.171 +- 0.04 $/kWhe for 10 h discharge). The low cost of particles and containment means that P-PTES can provide long-duration energy storage at low capital cost per unit energy capacity. For example, the total capital cost per unit energy reduces from 245 $/kWhe at 10 h to 38 $/kWhe at 100 h. These costs are considerably lower than MS-PTES (72 $/kWhe at 100 h) and also outcompete current and future Li-ion battery system projections (100-265 $/kWhe).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.↗

Space program payload costs and their possible reduction

The possible ways by which NASA payload costs might be reduced in the future were studied. The major historical reasons for payload costs being as they were, and if there are technologies (hard and soft), or criteria for technology advances, that could significantly reduce total costs of payloads were examined. Payload costs are placed in historical context. Some historical cost breakdowns for unmanned NASA payloads are presented to suggest where future cost reductions could be most significant. Space programs of NOAA, DoD and COMSAT are then examined to ascertain if payload reductions have been brought about by the operational (as opposed to developmental) nature of such programs, economies of scale, the ability to rely on previously developed technology, or by differing management structures and attitudes. The potential impact was investigated of NASA aircraft-type management on spacecraft program costs, and some examples relating previous costs associated with aircraft costs on the one hand and manned and unmanned costs on the other are included.

Vanvleck, E. M.↗

Cost analysis of atmosphere monitoring systems

A methodology was developed to predict realistic relative cost of life support systems and to define areas of major cost impacts in the development cycle. Emphasis was given to tailoring the cost data for usage by program planners and designers. Cost estimates can be completed using the developed equations for varying degrees of equipment refinement, as well as comparative costs between different functional methods. Cost analysis of two leading atmosphere monitoring systems, namely the mass spectrometer and the gas chromatograph, is discussed. A summary of the approach used in developing the cost estimating techniques is presented. Included are the cost estimating techniques, the development of cost estimating relationships, and the atmosphere monitoring system cost estimates.

Yakut, M. M.↗

Analysis of costs of gallium arsenide and silicon solar arrays for space power applications

A parametric analysis was performed to compare the costs of silicon and gallium arsenide arrays for Earth orbital missions. The missions included electric power in low Earth orbit (LEO), electric power in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO), and power for electric propulsion of a LEO to GEO orbit transfer mission. Inputs to the analysis for all missions included launch and purchase costs of the array. For the orbit transfer mission, the launch and purchase costs of the electric propulsion system were added. Radiation flux as a function of altitude and rediation tolerance as a function of cell type were used to determine power degradation for each mission. Curves were generated that show the sensitivity of launch-array cost and total mission cost to a variety of input parameters for each mission. These parameters included mission duration, cover glass thickness, array specific cost, array specific mass, and solar cell efficiency. Solar concentration was considered and the sensitivities of cost to concentration ratio, concentrator costs, and concentrator mass were also evaluated. Results indicate that solar cell development should give a high priority to reducing array costs and that the development of low cost, lightweight, solar concentrators should be pursued.

Jefferies, K. S.↗

A cost analysis for the implementation of commonality in the family of commuter airplanes, revised

The acquisition costs determined for the NASA family of commute airplanes are presented. The costs of the baseline designs are presented along with the calculated savings due to the commonality in the family. A sensitivity study is also presented to show the major drivers in the acquisition cost calculations. The baseline costs are calculated with the Nicolai method. A comparison is presented of the estimated costs for the commuter family with the actual price for existing commuters. The cost calculations for the engines and counter-rotating propellers are reported. The effects of commonality on acquisition costs are calculated. The sensitivity calculations of the cost to various costing parameters are shown. The calculations for the direct operating costs, with and without commonality are presented.

Creighton, Tom↗

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

Unal, Resit↗

A Cost Comparison of Alternative Approaches to Distance Education in Developing Countries

This paper presents a cost comparison of three approaches to two-way interactive distance learning systems for developing countries. Included are costs for distance learning hardware, terrestrial and satellite communication links, and designing instruction for two-way interactive courses. As part of this project, FSEC is developing a 30-hour course in photovoltaic system design that will be used in a variety of experiments using the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). A primary goal of the project is to develop an instructional design and delivery model that can be used for other education and training programs. Over two-thirds of the world photovoltaics market is in developing countries. One of the objectives of this NASA-sponsored project was to develop new and better energy education programs that take advantage of advances in telecommunications and computer technology. The combination of desktop video systems and the sharing of computer applications software is of special interest. Research is being performed to evaluate the effectiveness of some of these technologies as part of this project. The design of the distance learning origination and receive sites discussed in this paper were influenced by the educational community's growing interest in distance education. The following approach was used to develop comparative costs for delivering interactive distance education to developing countries: (1) Representative target locations for receive sites were chosen. The originating site was assumed to be Cocoa, Florida, where FSEC is located; (2) A range of course development costs were determined; (3) The cost of equipment for three alternative two-way interactive distance learning system configurations was determined or estimated. The types of system configurations ranged from a PC-based system that allows instructors to originate instruction from their office using desktop video and shared application software, to a high cost system that uses a electronic classroom; (4) A range of costs for both satellite and terrestrial communications was investigated; (5) The costs of equipment and operation of the alternative configurations for the origination and receive sites were determined; (6) A range of costs for several alternative delivery scenarios (i.e., a mix of live-interactive; asynchronous interactive;use of videotapes) was determined; and (7) A preferred delivery scenario, including cost estimate, was developed.

Ventre, Gerard G.↗

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗