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At least 163 records · Page 9

Combining Push-Forward Measures and Bayes' Rule to Construct Consistent Solutions to Stochastic Inverse Problems

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data on quantities of interest. The solution, given as a probability measure, is derived using a Bayesian updating approach for measurable maps that finds a posterior probability measure, that when propagated through the deterministic model produces a push-forward measure that exactly matches the observed probability measure on the data. Our approach for finding such posterior measures, which we call consistent Bayesian inference or push-forward based inference, is simple and only requires the computation of the push-forward probability measure induced by the combination of a prior probability measure and the deterministic model. We establish existence and uniqueness of observation-consistent posteriors and present both stability and error analyses. We also discuss the relationships between consistent Bayesian inference, classical/statistical Bayesian inference, and a recently developed measure-theoretic approach for inference. Finally, analytical and numerical results are presented to highlight certain properties of the consistent Bayesian approach and the differences between this approach and the two aforementioned alternatives for inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Consistent Space Runtime (CSPACER) v1.0

This software provides a runtime for communication-bound applications, especially with irregular communication patterns. The target programming abstraction for the runtime is the space consistency model, which defines consistency guarantees at the granularity of memory spaces. This model has relaxed consistency semantics that enables a wide range of runtime optimizations. The runtime leverages threading to accelerate communication primitives, especially collective operations. It also allows efficient pipelining of communication operations and enable constructing a consistent state of multiple unordered communication activities targeting a memory space. The runtime uses a reduced API design that decomposes complex communication primitives in traditional general-purpose runtime into a sequence of simpler steps. To improve the productivity of using this runtime, we provide communication patterns commonly used for regular scientific computing applications and irregular data analytics. These communication patterns offer skeletons for the integration with application computation to allow efficient overlap.

Ibrahim, Khaled↗

Consistent Feature Extraction From Vector Fields: Combinatorial Representations and Analysis Under Local Reference Frames

This dissertation presents research on addressing some of the contemporary challenges in the analysis of vector fields—an important type of scientific data useful for representing a multitude of physical phenomena, such as wind flow and ocean currents. In particular, new theories and computational frameworks to enable consistent feature extraction from vector fields are presented. One of the most fundamental challenges in the analysis of vector fields is that their features are defined with respect to reference frames. Unfortunately, there is no single “correct” reference frame for analysis, and an unsuitable frame may cause features of interest to remain undetected, thus creating serious physical consequences. This work develops new reference frames that enable extraction of localized features that other techniques and frames fail to detect. As a result, these reference frames objectify the notion of “correctness” of features for certain goals by revealing the phenomena of importance from the underlying data. An important consequence of using these local frames is that the analysis of unsteady (time-varying) vector fields can be reduced to the analysis of sequences of steady (timeindependent) vector fields, which can be performed using simpler and scalable techniques that allow better data management by accessing the data on a per-time-step basis. Nevertheless, the state-of-the-art analysis of steady vector fields is not robust, as most techniques are numerical in nature. The residing numerical errors can violate consistency with the underlying theory by breaching important fundamental laws, which may lead to serious physical consequences. This dissertation considers consistency as the most fundamental characteristic of computational analysis that must always be preserved, and presents a new discrete theory that uses combinatorial representations and algorithms to provide consistency guarantees during vector field analysis along with the uncertainty visualization of unavoidable discretization errors. Together, the two main contributions of this dissertation address two important concerns regarding feature extraction from scientific data: correctness and precision. The work presented here also opens new avenues for further research by exploring more-general reference frames and more-sophisticated domain discretizations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Transferability and Collection Consistency in Marine Renewable Energy

Concerns about the potential effects of tidal turbines and wave energy devices on the marine environment continue to slow siting and permitting/consenting of single devices and arrays worldwide. While research studies and early results from post-installation monitoring over the past decade have informed interactions between marine renewable energy (MRE) devices, marine animals, and habitats, regulators still demonstrate considerable reluctance to accelerate the permitting/consenting process for devices and arrays. Furthermore, the MRE industry is struggling with the high costs of baseline assessments and post-installation monitoring, as well as long timelines for obtaining permits, which leads to uncertainty and risk related to project financing. Regulators require assessment and monitoring information to allow them to carry out the necessary analyses to describe, permit/consent, and manage the environmental risks associated with new MRE technologies and new uses of ocean space. One way to reduce risks to the industry and the environment and to allow for acceleration of the permitting/consenting process could be to transfer learning, analyses, and data sets from one country to another, among projects, and across jurisdictional boundaries. In addition, data are collected around early-stage MRE devices using many different methods, instruments, and measurement scales. If similar parameters and accessible methods of data collection were used for baseline assessments and post-installation monitoring around all early-stage devices and MRE developments, the results would be more readily comparable. This comparability would lead to a decrease in scientific uncertainty and support a common understanding of the risk of MRE devices to the marine environment. This in turn would facilitate more efficient and shorter permitting/consenting processes, which would decrease the financial risk for MRE project development. As a means of addressing the concept of transferring data (information, learning, analyses, and data sets) among projects and collecting data consistently, Annex IV has developed a data transferability process that has been socialized with the MRE community, which includes regulators, industry, developers, consultants, and researchers. The data transferability process consists of five components: 1. A Data Transferability Framework brings together data sets in an organized fashion, compares the applicability of each data set for use on other projects, and guides the process of data transfer 2. A Data Collection Consistency Table provides preferred measurement methods or processes, reporting units, and the most common methods of analysis or interpretation and use of data 3. A Monitoring Data Sets Discoverability Matrix allows a practitioner to discover data sets based on the approach presented in the Framework 4. Best Management Practices (BMPs) include five BMPs related to data transferability and collection consistency 5. An Implementation Plan presents an approach for implementing and applying the data transferability process. This report documents the background and development of the data transferability process and associated components and summarizes the next steps needed to successfully implement and apply the data transferability process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]

This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nine time steps: ultra-fast statistical consistency testing of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v3.0)

The Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) suitewas developed as an alternative to requiring bit wise identical output for quality assurance. This objective test provides a statistical measurement of consistency between an accepted ensemble created by small initial temperature perturbations and a test set of CESM simulations. Here, we extend the CESM-ECT suite with an inexpensive and robust test for ensemble consistency that is applied to Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) output after only nine model time steps. We suggest that adequate ensemble variability is achieved with instantaneous variable values at the ninth step, despite rapid perturbation growth and heterogeneous variable spread. We refer to this new test as the Ultra-Fast CAM Ensemble Consistency Test (UF-CAM-ECT) and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice, including its ability to detect small-scale events and its applicability to the Community Land Model (CLM).The new ultra-fast test facilitates CESM development, porting, and optimization efforts, particularly when used to complement information fromthe original CESM-ECT suite of tools.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Self-consistent Pauli corrections in Brueckner-Hartree-Fock calculations

A scheme is introduced which makes it feasible to make completely self-consistent Brueckner-Hartree-Fock (BHF) and renormalized BHF calculations for spherical, closed-shell and axially-symmetric deformed nuclei. The usual requirement or orbital self-consistency has been imposed, as well as self-consistency in the starting energies and occupation probabilities. Previously, only approximate forms were used for the Pauli operator. This approximation is removed and a method for making the necessary Pauli corrections to the reaction matrix during the approach to self-consistency is presented. A discussion of the symmetries which reduce the problem to one of manageable proportions is included.

Braley, R. C.↗

Numerical experiments on consistent horizontal and vertical resolution for atmospheric models and observing systems

Simple numerical experiments are performed in order to determine the effects of inconsistent combinations of horizontal and vertical resolution in both atmospheric models and observing systems. In both cases, we find that inconsistent spatial resolution is associated with enhanced noise generation. A rather fine horizontal resolution in a satellite data observing system seems to be excessive when combined with the usually available relatively coarse vertical resolution. Using different strength horizontal filters, adjusted in such a way as to render the effective horizontal resolution more consistent with vertical resolution for the observing system, may result in improvement of the analysis accuracy. However, the increase of vertical resolution for a satellite data observing system is desirable. For the conventional data observing system with better vertically resolved data, the results are different in that little or no horizontal filtering is needed to make spatial resolution more consistent for the system. The obtained experimental estimates of consistent vertical and effective horizontal resolution are in a general agreement with consistent resolution estimates previously derived theoretically by the authors.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Numerical experiments on consistent horizontal and vertical resolution for atmospheric models and observing systems

Simple numerical experiments are performed in order to determine the effects of inconsistent combinations of horizontal and vertical resolution in both atmospheric models and observing systems. In both cases, we find that inconsistent spatial resolution is associated with enhanced noise generation. A rather fine horizontal resolution in a satellite-data observing system seems to be excessive when combined with the usually available relatively coarse vertical resolution. Using horizontal filters of different strengths, adjusted in such a way as to render the effective horizontal resolution more consistent with vertical resolution for the observing system, may result in improvement of the analysis accuracy. The increase of vertical resolution for a satellite data observing system with better vertically resolved data, the results are different in that little or no horizontal filtering is needed to make spatial resolution more consistent for the system. The obtained experimental estimates of consistent vertical and effective horizontal resolution are in a general agreement with consistent resolution estimates previously derived theoretically by the authors.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Accuracy of the Generalized Self-Consistent Method in Modelling the Elastic Behaviour of Periodic Composites

Local stress and strain fields in the unit cell of an infinite, two-dimensional, periodic fibrous lattice have been determined by an integral equation approach. The effect of the fibres is assimilated to an infinite two-dimensional array of fictitious body forces in the matrix constituent phase of the unit cell. By subtracting a volume averaged strain polarization term from the integral equation we effectively embed a finite number of unit cells in a homogenized medium in which the overall stress and strain correspond to the volume averaged stress and strain of the constrained unit cell. This paper demonstrates that the zeroth term in the governing integral equation expansion, which embeds one unit cell in the homogenized medium, corresponds to the generalized self-consistent approximation. By comparing the zeroth term approximation with higher order approximations to the integral equation summation, both the accuracy of the generalized self-consistent composite model and the rate of convergence of the integral summation can be assessed. Two example composites are studied. For a tungsten/copper elastic fibrous composite the generalized self-consistent model is shown to provide accurate, effective, elastic moduli and local field representations. The local elastic transverse stress field within the representative volume element of the generalized self-consistent method is shown to be in error by much larger amounts for a composite with periodically distributed voids, but homogenization leads to a cancelling of errors, and the effective transverse Young's modulus of the voided composite is shown to be in error by only 23% at a void volume fraction of 75%.

Walker, Kevin P.↗

Our Sun V: A Bright Young Sun Consistent with Helioseismology and Warm Temperatures on Ancient Earth and Mars

The relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth and Mars have been difficult to account for with warming from greenhouse gases. A slightly more massive young Sun would be brighter than predicted by the standard solar model, simultaneously resolving this problem for both Earth and Mars. We computed high-precision solar models with seven initial masses, from Mi = 1.01 to 1.07 solar mass - the latter being the maximum permitted if the early Earth is not to lose its water via a moist greenhouse effect. The relatively modest early mass loss that is required remains consistent with observational limits on mass loss from young stars and with estimates of the past solar wind obtained from lunar rocks. We considered three types of mass loss rates: (1) a reasonable choice of a simple exponential decline, (2) an extreme step-function case that gives the maximum effect consistent with observations, and (3) the radical case of a linear decline which is inconsistent with the solar wind mass loss estimates from lunar rocks. Our computations demonstrated that mass loss leaves a fingerprint oil the Sun's internal structure large enough to be detectable with helioseismic observations. All of our mass-losing solar models were consistent with the helioseismic observations; in fact, our preferred mass-losing cases were in marginally better agreement with the helioseismology than the standard solar model was, although this difference was smaller than the effects of other uncertainties in the input physics and in the solar composition. Mass loss has only a relatively minor effect on the predicted lithium depletion; the major portion of the solar lithium depletion must still be due to rotational mixing. Thus the modest mass loss cases considered here cannot be ruled out by observed lithium depletions. For the three mass loss types considered, the preferred initial masses were 1.07 solar mass for the exponential case and 1.04 solar mass for the step-function and linear cases; all of these provided high enough solar fluxes at Mars 3.8 Gyr ago to be consistent with the existence of liquid water. For a more massive early Sun, the planets would have had to be closer to the young Sun in order to end up in their present orbits; the orbital radii of the planets would vary inversely with the solar mass. Both of these effects contribute to the fact that the early solar flux at the planets would have been considerably higher than that of the standard solar model at that time. In fact, the 1.07 solar mass exponential case has a flux at birth 5% higher than the present solar flux, while the radical 1.04 solar mass linear case has a nearly constant flux over the first 3 Gyr only about 10% lower than at present. The early solar evolution would be in the opposite direction in the H-R diagram to that of the standard Sun.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗

Self-Consistent Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling: Theoretical Studies

A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere- ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we solve an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond [2001], we calculate the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our code. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has has been comprehensively studied, and compare our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and, their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. This changes the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Self-Consistent Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

A self-consistent ring current (RC) model has been developed that couples electron and ion magnetospheric dynamics with the calculation of the electric field. Two new features were taken into account in order to close the self-consistent magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling loop. First, in addition to the RC ions, we have solved an electron kinetic equation in our model. Second, using the relation of Galand and Richmond, we have calculated the height integrated ionospheric conductances as a function of the precipitated high energy magnetospheric electrons and ions that are produced by our model. To validate the results of our model we simulate the magnetic storm of May 2, 1986, a storm that has been comprehensively studied by Fok et al., and have compared our results with different theoretical approaches. The self-consistent inclusion of the hot electrons and their effect on the conductance results in deeper penetration of the magnetospheric electric field. In addition, a slight westward rotation of the potential pattern (compared to previous self-consistent results) is evident in the inner magnetosphere. These effects change the hot plasma distribution, especially by allowing increased access of plasma sheet ions and electrons to low L shells.

Six, N. Frank↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: The May 2-7, 1998, Storm

Complete description of a self-consistent model for magnetospheric ring current interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is presented. The model is based on the system of two kinetic equations; one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes the wave evolution. The effects on ring current ions interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and back on waves, are considered self-consistently by solving both equations on a global magnetospheric scale under non steady-state conditions. In the paper by Khazanov et al. [2002] this self-consistent model has only been shortly outlined, and discussions of many the model related details have been omitted. For example, in present study for the first time a new algorithm for numerical finding of the resonant numbers for quasilinear wave-particle interaction is described, or it is demonstrated that in order to describe quasilinear interaction in a multi-ion thermal plasma correctly, both e and He(+) modes of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves should be employed. The developed model is used to simulate the entire May 2-7, 1998 storm period. Trapped number fluxes of the ring current protons are calculated and presented along with their comparison with the data measured by the 3D hot plasma instrument Polar/HYDRA. Examining of the wave (MLT, L shell) distributions produced during the storm progress reveals an essential intensification of the wave emissions in about two days after main phase of storm. This result is well consistent with the earlier ground-based observations. Also the theoretical shapes and the occurrence rates for power spectral densities of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are studied. It is found that in about 2 days after the storm main phase on May 4, mainly non Gaussian shapes of power spectral densities are produced.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Electric Field, Ring Current, Plasmasphere, and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Initial Results

Further development of our self-consistent model of interacting ring current (RC) ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is presented. This model incorporates large scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and treats self-consistently not only EMIC waves and RC ions, but also the magnetospheric electric field, RC, and plasmasphere. Initial simulations indicate that the region beyond geostationary orbit should be included in the simulation of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Additionally, a self-consistent description, based on first principles, of the ionospheric conductance is required. These initial simulations further show that in order to model the EMIC wave distribution and wave spectral properties accurately, the plasmasphere should also be simulated self-consistently, since its fine structure requires as much care as that of the RC. Finally, an effect of the finite time needed to reestablish a new potential pattern throughout the ionosphere and to communicate between the ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere cannot be ignored.

Gamayunov, K. V.↗

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Consistency of In Situ and Remote-Sensing Observations with Stratiform Rain Column Simulations - Part I

Occurrences of jet engine power loss and damage have been associated with flight through fully glaciated deep convection at -10 to -50 degrees Centigrade. Power loss events commonly occur during flight through radar reflectivity (Zeta (sub e)) less than 20-30 decibels relative to Zeta (dBZ - radar returns) and no more than moderate turbulence, often overlying moderate to heavy rain near the surface. During 2010-2012, Airbus carried out flight tests seeking to characterize the highest ice water content (IWC) in such low-radar-reflectivity regions of large, cold-topped storm systems in the vicinity of Cayenne, Darwin, and Santiago. Within the highest IWC regions encountered, at typical sampling elevations (circa 11 kilometers), the measured ice size distributions exhibit a notably narrow concentration of mass over area-equivalent diameters of 100-500 micrometers. Given substantial and poorly quantified measurement uncertainties, here we evaluate the consistency of the Airbus in situ measurements with ground-based profiling radar observations obtained under quasi-steady, heavy stratiform rain conditions in one of the Airbus-sampled locations. We find that profiler-observed radar reflectivities and mean Doppler velocities at Airbus sampling temperatures are generally consistent with those calculated from in situ size-distribution measurements. We also find that column simulations using the in situ size distributions as an upper boundary condition are generally consistent with observed profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and retrieved rain rate. The results of these consistency checks motivate an examination of the microphysical pathways that could be responsible for the observed size-distribution features in Ackerman et al. (2015).

Rain↗

Toward Consistent Long-term Records of Cloud Fraction from MODIS and VIIRS for CERES

In order to produce a long-term and stable climate record of Earth’s energy budget for NASA’s Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, a consistent cloud fraction record across different measurement platforms­­ is a crucial first step. As Aqua satellite is approaching the end of its operational lifetime, NOAA-20 VIIRS observations on the JPSS-2 spacecraft will be used for cloud detection to continue the long-term Earth energy budget record. Two steps are designed to achieve this goal. The first step is a quick approach that revises the CERES NOAA-20 VIIRS Edition 1 A (CV Ed1A) cloud mask to incorporate Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) water vapor and CO_2 channels into the VIIRS cloud mask (CV Ed1B) to produce a consistent cloud fraction with CERES MODIS Edition 4 (CM Ed4) to avoid potential discontinuity when Aqua orbit drifts beyond tolerance before the next Edition is completed. The second step is to develop, as part of CERES next edition (Ed5), a unified MODIS and VIIRS cloud mask using common channels to produce consistent cloud products with improved radiative transfer models, refined clear sky predictions, new GMAO reanalysis products, and the latest radiance collections of MODIS and VIIRS data. This poster will present cloud fraction comparison between CV Ed1B and CM Ed4, as well as the preliminary results of ongoing Ed5 including pixel level cloud mask results, monthly global cloud fraction differences between MODIS and VIIRS (consistency), and initial validation using CALIPSO data (accuracy).

CERES↗

Development of a Consistent GEOsat Cloud Property Dataset for the CERES Climate Data Record

Cloud properties are critical for understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and cloud feedbacks. At NASA Langley Research Center, the Satellite ClOud and Radiative Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) provides real-time and historical analyses of clouds derived from Geostationary satellite (GEOsat) data for weather and climate applications. For the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) program, the global constellation of GEOsats has been analyzed since 2000 to help characterize and account for the diurnal cycle of clouds and their radiative impacts in the CERES climate data record. Obtaining consistent cloud properties over the GEOsat data record during the CERES era is a major objective but a significant challenge considering the diversity of imaging capabilities deployed during that time. The GEOsat data analysis approach for the current CERES Edition-4 (Ed4) data products was focused on accuracy and consistency with MODIS by employing as much spectral information as possible from each satellite. However, the inconsistent use of spectral information across GEOsats led to marked discontinuities in the spatial and temporal record of cloud properties that had to be accounted for post facto in downstream CERES processing. This paper reports progress in developing a new GEOsat analysis system for the next CERES edition (Ed5) that has potential to improve cross-platform consistency and continuity. In this approach, the spectral channel complement is limited to just 3-channels during daytime, ~0.65 µm (VIS), ~3.9 µm (NIR), and ~10.8 µm (IR), common to nearly all of the satellites in the record. At night, a 2-channel approach is taken with the NIR and IR, and ~6.7 µm bands that includes a machine learning approach for optically thick cloud properties. A tradeoff is the potential for reduced accuracy particularly using data from the more advanced satellites that have more spectral channels (e.g. SEVIRI, AHI and ABI) that are known to help improve thin cirrus detection, cloud-aerosol discrimination and estimates in other difficult conditions that challenge cloud remote sensing. The new continuity approach is applied to one month of global GEOSat data for each year of the CERES record since 2000 and compared with the Ed4 GEO and MODIS cloud property time series in order to evaluate the level of improved consistency in the GEOsat record and to assess the accuracy impacts. Cloud fraction will also be assessed with CALIPSO data. Outstanding issues and challenges will be discussed. The results are expected to guide future work needed to develop a more robust GEOsat cloud data record for CERES.

CERES CDR↗