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NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1975

Community level impacts of expanding underground coal mining

The potential secondary consequences of rapid community growth in deep mining localities and the ability of affected communities to absorb and manage such growth are discussed. Areas discussed include Sweetwater County, Wyoming, and Marion and Monongalia Counties, West Virginia.

Coates, V. T.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Lack of agreement over the use and ownership of the internationally shared resources (such as air space, outer space and the oceans) leading to international conflict

The lack of adequate institutional mechanisms to regulate, monitor and govern the use of commonly owned world resources appears to be politically destabilizing and subject to socioeconomic pressures of overpopulation, food shortages, cartelism, terrorism, and wealth distribution to developing countries. The capacity and propensity to wage war and its potential consequences are elaborated. It is shown that technology is one of the dominant factors affecting the exploration and management of commonly shared resources.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2017

Principles of Sociology in Systems Engineering

Systems engineering involves both the integration of the system and the integration of the disciplines which develop and operate the system. Integrating the disciplines is a sociological effort to bring together different groups, often with different terminology, to achieve a common goal, the system. The focus for the systems engineer is information flow through the organization, between the disciplines, to ensure the system is developed and operated with all relevant information informing system decisions. Robert K. Merton studied the sociological principles of the sciences and the sociological principles he developed apply to systems engineering. Concepts such as specification of ignorance, common terminology, opportunity structures, role-sets, and the reclama (reconsideration) process are all important sociological approaches that should be employed by the systems engineer. In bringing the disciplines together, the systems engineer must also be wary of social ambivalence, social anomie, social dysfunction, insider-outsider behavior, unintended consequences, and the self-fulfilling prophecy. These sociological principles provide the systems engineer with key approaches to manage the information flow through the organization as the disciplines are integrated and share their information. This also helps identify key sociological barriers to information flow through the organization. This paper will discuss this theoretical basis for the application of sociological principles to systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

Bray, Alleen↗

NASA NTRS1989

Knowledge-based control of an adaptive interface

The analysis, development strategy, and preliminary design for an intelligent, adaptive interface is reported. The design philosophy couples knowledge-based system technology with standard human factors approaches to interface development for computer workstations. An expert system has been designed to drive the interface for application software. The intelligent interface will be linked to application packages, one at a time, that are planned for multiple-application workstations aboard Space Station Freedom. Current requirements call for most Space Station activities to be conducted at the workstation consoles. One set of activities will consist of standard data management services (DMS). DMS software includes text processing, spreadsheets, data base management, etc. Text processing was selected for the first intelligent interface prototype because text-processing software can be developed initially as fully functional but limited with a small set of commands. The program's complexity then can be increased incrementally. The intelligent interface includes the operator's behavior and three types of instructions to the underlying application software are included in the rule base. A conventional expert-system inference engine searches the data base for antecedents to rules and sends the consequents of fired rules as commands to the underlying software. Plans for putting the expert system on top of a second application, a database management system, will be carried out following behavioral research on the first application. The intelligent interface design is suitable for use with ground-based workstations now common in government, industrial, and educational organizations.

Lachman, Roy↗

NASA NTRS2020

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

land use land cover change↗

NASA NTRS1992

Environmental effects consideration: A case study - Lessons learned

This paper discusses the importance for serious consideration of environmental effects and associated risks by management early in the development cycle of a facility. A case study on the Space Shuttle provides information with regard to some of the environmental effects issues encountered and the lesson learned. The importance of early management action to enable the acceptance of known environmental risks, or to make program adjustments to avoid their potential consequences, is emphasized.

Vaughan, William W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The control of satellites with microgravity constraints: The COMET Control System

The COMET attitude determination and control system, using inverse dynamics and a novel torque distribution/momentum management technique, has shown great flexibility, performance, and robustness. Three-axis control with two wheels is an inherent consequence of inverse dynamics control which allows for reduction in spacecraft weight and cost, or alternatively, provides a simple means of failure-redundancy for three-wheel spacecraft. The control system, without modification, has continued to perform well in spite of large changes in spacecraft mass properties and mission orbit altitude that have occurred during development. This flexibility has obviated imposition of early stringent ADACS design constraints and has greatly reduced commonly incurred ADACS modification costs and delay associated with program maturation.

Grossman, Walter↗

NASA NTRS2008

Heart Rhythm Monitoring in the Constellation Lunar and Launch/Landing EVA Suit: Recommendations from an Expert Panel

Currently there are several physiological monitoring requirements for Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in the Human-Systems Interface Requirements (HSIR) document, including continuous heart rhythm monitoring. However, it is not known whether heart rhythm monitoring in the lunar surface space suit is a necessary capability for lunar surface operations or in launch/landing suit the event of a cabin depressurization enroute to or from the moon. Methods: Current US astronaut corps demographic information was provided to an expert panel of cardiovascular medicine experts, including specialists in electrophysiology, exercise physiology, interventional cardiology and arrhythmia. This information included averages for male/female age, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, cholesterol, inflammatory markers, echocardiogram, ranges for coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores for long duration astronauts, and ranges for heart rate (HR) and metabolic (MET) rates obtained during microgravity and lunar EVA. Results: The panel determined that no uncontrolled hazard was likely to occur in the suit during lunar surface or contingency microgravity ops that would require ECG monitoring in the highly screened US astronaut population. However having the capability for rhythm monitoring inside the vehicle (IVA) was considered critical to manage an astronaut in distress. Discussion: Heart rate (HR) monitoring alone allows effective monitoring of astronaut health and function. Consequently, electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring capability as a clinical tool is not essential in the lunar or launch/landing space suit. However, the panel considered that rhythm monitoring could be useful in certain clinical situations, it was not considered required for safe operations. Also, lunar vehicles should be required to have ECG monitoring capability with a minimum of 5-lead ECG (derived 12- lead) for IVA medical assessments.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Clarifying the trophic state concept to advance macroscale freshwater science and management

For over a century, ecologists have used the concept of trophic state (TS) to characterize an aquatic ecosystem's biological productivity. However, multiple TS classification schemes, each relying on a variety of measurable parameters as proxies for productivity, have emerged to meet use‐specific needs. Frequently, chlorophyll a, phosphorus, and Secchi depth are used to classify TS based on autotrophic production, whereas phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, and true color are used to classify TS based on both autotrophic and heterotrophic production. Both classification approaches aim to characterize an ecosystem's function broadly, but with varying degrees of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes considered in those characterizations. Moreover, differing classification schemes can create inconsistent interpretations of ecosystem integrity. For example, the US Clean Water Act focuses exclusively on algal threats to water quality, framed in terms of eutrophication in response to nutrient loading. This usage lacks information about non‐algal threats to water quality, such as dystrophication in response to dissolved organic carbon loading. Consequently, the TS classification schemes used to identify eutrophication and dystrophication may refer to ecosystems similarly (e.g., oligotrophic and eutrophic), yet these categories are derived from different proxies. These inconsistencies in TS classification schemes may be compounded when interdisciplinary projects employ varied TS frameworks. Even with these shortcomings, TS can still be used to distill information on complex aquatic ecosystem function into a set of generalizable expectations. The usefulness of distilling complex information into a TS index is substantial such that usage inconsistencies should be explicitly addressed and resolved. To emphasize the consequences of diverging TS classification schemes, we present three case studies for which an improved understanding of the TS concept advances freshwater research, management efforts, and interdisciplinary collaboration. To increase clarity in TS, the aquatic sciences could benefit from including information about the proxy variables, ecosystem type, as well as the spatiotemporal domains used to classify TS. As the field of aquatic sciences expands and climatic irregularity increases, we highlight the importance of re‐evaluating fundamental concepts, such as TS, to ensure their compatibility with evolving science.

classification↗

NASA NTRS2006

Integrated Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation, and Accreditation Strategy for Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations and provide critical information and data supporting key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision-making. Their usage requires the implementation of a rigorous approach to verification, validation and accreditation (W&A) and establishment of formal process and practices associated with their application. To ensure decision-making is suitably supported by information (data, models, test beds) from activities (studies, exercises) from M&S applications that are understood and characterized, ESMD is establishing formal, tailored W&A processes and practices. In addition, to ensure the successful application of M&S within ESMD, a formal process for the certification of analysts that use M&S is being implemented. This presentation will highlight NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management approach for M&S W&A to ensure decision-makers receive timely information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality.

Hale, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The NASA cryogenic fluid management technology program plan

During the past three decades, NASA has been designing and using large quantities of cryogenic fluids for propulsion system propellants, coolants for experiments, and for environmental control systems. As a consequence, an erroneous conclusion has been drawn that the technology exists for using large quantities of cryogens in space for long periods of time. The attempt here is to dispel that myth and to present the technology needs that require development in order to support the NASA programs of the future. A NASA program, developed through the impetus of the Marshall Space Flight Center and the Lewis Research Center and supported by all NASA centers is outlined. The current state of the art is discussed along with specific needs for near future missions. Then, using the Space Exploration Initiative mission set, cost/benefit projections are made for the development of advanced cryogenic fluid management techniques. Earth based and space based test programs are discussed relative to the technology requirements for liquid storage, supply, and transfer for fluid transfer and advanced instrumentation.

Faddoul, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Based Ornithology: On the Wings of Migration and Biophysics

The study of bird migration on a global scale is one of the compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Space based technology offers new opportunities to shed understanding on the distribution and migration of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Migration is an incredibly diverse and complex behavior. A broad outline of space based research must address three fundamental questions: (1) where could birds be, i.e. what is their fundamental niche constrained by their biophysical limits? (2) where do we actually find birds, i.e. what is their realizable niche as modified by local or regional abiotic and biotic factors, and (3) how do they get there (and how do we know?), that is what are their migration patterns and associated mechanisms? Our working hypothesis is that individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance, driven by satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat, will help us to explain the variability in avian species richness and distribution. Dynamic state variable modeling provides one tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic models describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. Further these models provide an ecological forecasting tool for science and application users to address what are the possible consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Commercial Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectroscopy Sensors for Sub-Ambient Carbon Dioxide Detection

Carbon dioxide produced through respiration can accumulate rapidly within closed spaces. If not managed, a crew's respiratory rate increases, headaches and hyperventilation occur, vision and hearing are affected, and cognitive abilities decrease. Consequently, development continues on a number of CO2 removal technologies for human spacecraft and spacesuits. Terrestrially, technology development requires precise performance characterization to qualify promising air revitalization equipment. On-orbit, instrumentation is required to identify and eliminate unsafe conditions. This necessitates accurate in situ CO2 detection. Recursive compensation algorithms were developed for sub-ambient detection of CO2 with commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors. In addition, the source of the exponential loss in accuracy is developed theoretically. The basis of the loss can be explained through thermal, Doppler, and Lorentz broadening effects that arise as a result of the temperature, pressure, and composition of the gas mixture under analysis. The objective was to develop a mathematical routine to compensate COTS CO2 sensors relying on NDIR over pressures, temperatures, and compositions far from calibration conditions. The routine relies on a power-law relationship for the pressure dependency of the sensors along with an equivalent pressure to account for the composition dependency. A Newton-Raphson iterative technique solves for actual carbon dioxide concentration based on the reported concentration. Moreover, first principles routines were established to predict mixed-gas spectra based on sensor specifications (e.g., optical path length). The first principles model can be used to parametrically optimize sensors or sensor arrays across a wide variety of pressures/temperatures/ compositions. In this work, heuristic scaling arguments were utilized to develop reasonable compensation techniques. Experimental results confirmed this approach and provided evidence that composition broadening significantly alters spectra when pressure is reduced. Consequently, a recursive compensation technique was developed with the Newton-Raphson method, which was subsequently verified through experimentation.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated System Health Management: Foundational Concepts, Approach, and Implementation

A sound basis to guide the community in the conception and implementation of ISHM (Integrated System Health Management) capability in operational systems was provided. The concept of "ISHM Model of a System" and a related architecture defined as a unique Data, Information, and Knowledge (DIaK) architecture were described. The ISHM architecture is independent of the typical system architecture, which is based on grouping physical elements that are assembled to make up a subsystem, and subsystems combine to form systems, etc. It was emphasized that ISHM capability needs to be implemented first at a low functional capability level (FCL), or limited ability to detect anomalies, diagnose, determine consequences, etc. As algorithms and tools to augment or improve the FCL are identified, they should be incorporated into the system. This means that the architecture, DIaK management, and software, must be modular and standards-based, in order to enable systematic augmentation of FCL (no ad-hoc modifications). A set of technologies (and tools) needed to implement ISHM were described. One essential tool is a software environment to create the ISHM Model. The software environment encapsulates DIaK, and an infrastructure to focus DIaK on determining health (detect anomalies, determine causes, determine effects, and provide integrated awareness of the system to the operator). The environment includes gateways to communicate in accordance to standards, specially the IEEE 1451.1 Standard for Smart Sensors and Actuators.

Figueroa, Fernando↗