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At least 163 records · Page 9

Quantification of Lanthanides in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

To enable the deployment of molten salt reactor technology, the development of off-gas treatment systems and advanced monitoring tools capable of operating with high temperatures and radiation fields while delivering near real-time information is necessary. Here, we aim to fulfill this requirement and proposes laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for monitoring molten salt aerosol streams. A sheath gas measuring method was developed to protect optical elements from aerosol particles and to ensure a relatively constant aerosol stream for measurement. An aqueous system was studied to demonstrate the utility of LIBS for monitoring possible fission products in an aerosol stream: Gd, Nd, and Sm up to 2000 parts per million (ppm). A calibration model was built using partial least squares (PLS) regression with five, six, and nine latent variables for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. This calibration model successfully estimated the concentrations of three test samples, which were validated with inductively charged plasma optical emission spectroscopy measurements at a 99.9% confidence interval. To enhance these models, a genetic algorithm was used to filter the spectra before entering the PLS model, thereby limiting the spectral features being regressed to those with greater correlations to concentration. This allowed for the number of latent variables used in the PLS models to be reduced to four, three, and three for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. Finally, the genetic algorithm-filtered PLS models were used to predict the concentrations of the aerosol stream on a real-time dataset and resulted in a 73%, 18%, and 25% improvement in root mean squared error of prediction compared to the original PLS models developed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Verification and Validation of MFiX-PIC

This work is aimed at verification and validation (V&V) of particle-in-cell (PIC) approach in the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX-PIC) which was officially released in April 2019. Under verification, the results from MFiX-PIC are compared with exact or analytical solutions, while experimental results are used for benchmarking under validation. The test suite consists of the following cases: Terminal velocity. Particle advection in time-varying flow field. Particle settling in a dense medium. Evaporation. Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Minimum fluidization. Mini-circulating fluidized bed. The cases reported in a format consistent with the existing Verification and Validation Manual (Musser et al., 2018) explore a wide range of flow velocities and concentration regimes. Only one case considered in this work verifies the implementation of heat and mass transfer routines in MFiX-PIC, while a few other studies are currently underway to further expand the validation space in reacting flows. This study highlights the need for a rigorous analysis to objectively quantify the effect of model parameters. In addition, there is a scarcity of high-quality experimental data in the literature suitable for validating PIC methodology. Future efforts would include performing experiments which provide results for a valuable database. While designing such experiments, particle count should be significant to have sufficient particles per parcel while maintaining an optimal parcel to cell volume ratio. Also, datasets should have objectively assessed experimental uncertainty whereby confidence interval in those measurements become more explicit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Milestone 1.2.11: H 2 Production from Surrogate Non-Native Corrosion Plumes on Aluminum 6061-T6 Fuel Cladding Surrogates

Thick, localized, “non-native” corrosion plumes have been identified on Advanced Test Reactor fuel elements, raising concern on their impact on the radiolytic formation of molecular hydrogen gas (H 2 ) from aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) under proposed extended (> 50 years) dry storage conditions. Here, we report our findings on H 2 generation from the gamma irradiation (up to 52 MGy) of surrogate “non-native” corrosion plume coupons: ambient-temperature-corroded (~350 days in water) aluminum alloy 6061 (AA6061) coupons in helium gas environments with ~0% added relative humidity. Additionally, we provide a comparison of proposed ASNF drying techniques— vacuum drying only, vacuum drying + 100 °C for 4 hr, and vacuum drying + 220 °C for 4 hr—on the yield of H 2 from these surrogate systems. The presented data indicates that similar amounts of H 2 (~2 × 10–3 µmol J–1) are formed from gamma irradiated AA6061 coupons corroded under different temperature regimes, i.e., ambient/350 days vs. 90 C/30 days. These findings validate current, complimentary modelling predictions based on high-temperature-corrosion irradiation data only. Further, the application of a heat treatment procedure (100 and 220 °C), in conjunction with vacuum drying, accelerated the rate at which a steady-state H 2 yield was attained, in comparison to vacuum only, due to the removal of H 2 precursors in the form of adsorbed waters. Interestingly, within the confidence limits of our measurements, negligible difference in total H 2 yield was found between the two investigated heat treatment procedures.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New methods and results for quantification of lightning-aircraft electrodynamics

The NASA F-106 collected data on the rates of change of electromagnetic parameters on the aircraft surface during over 700 direct lightning strikes while penetrating thunderstorms at altitudes from 15,000 t0 40,000 ft (4,570 to 12,190 m). These in situ measurements provided the basis for the first statistical quantification of the lightning electromagnetic threat to aircraft appropriate for determining indirect lightning effects on aircraft. These data are used to update previous lightning criteria and standards developed over the years from ground-based measurements. The proposed standards will be the first which reflect actual aircraft responses measured at flight altitudes. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the distribution of the peak electromagnetic rates of change for consideration in the new standards are obtained based on peak recorder data for multiple-strike flights. The linear and nonlinear modeling techniques developed provide means to interpret and understand the direct-strike electromagnetic data acquired on the F-106. The reasonable results obtained with the models, compared with measured responses, provide increased confidence that the models may be credibly applied to other aircraft.

Pitts, Felix L.↗

Estimating the Modified Allan Variance

The third-difference approach to modified Allan variance (MVAR) leads to a tractable formula for a measure of MVAR estimator confidence, the equivalent degrees of freedom (edf), in the presence of power-law phase noise. The effect of estimation stride on edf is tabulated. A simple approximation for edf is given, and its errors are tabulated. A theorem allowing conservative estimates of edf in the presence of compound noise processes is given.

Allan Variance↗

On the Transition and Migration of Flight Functions in the Airspace System

Since ~400 BC, when man first replicated flying behavior with kites, up until the turn of the 20th century, when the Wright brothers performed the first successful powered human flight, flight functions have become available to man via significant support from man-made structures and devices. Over the past 100 years or so, technology has enabled several flight functions to migrate to automation and/or decision support systems. This migration continues with the United States NextGen and Europe s Single European Sky (a.k.a. SESAR) initiatives. These overhauls of the airspace system will be accomplished by accommodating the functional capabilities, benefits, and limitations of technology and automation together with the unique and sometimes overlapping functional capabilities, benefits, and limitations of humans. This paper will discuss how a safe and effective migration of any flight function must consider several interrelated issues, including, for example, shared situation awareness, and automation addiction, or over-reliance on automation. A long-term philosophical perspective is presented that considers all of these issues by primarily asking the following questions: How does one find an acceptable level of risk tolerance when allocating functions to automation versus humans? How does one measure or predict with confidence what the risks will be? These two questions and others will be considered from the two most-discussed paradigms involving the use of increasingly complex systems in the future: humans as operators and humans as monitors.

Morris, Allan Terry↗

On the Statistical Analysis of X-ray Polarization Measurements

In many polarimetry applications, including observations in the X-ray band, the measurement of a polarization signal can be reduced to the detection and quantification of a deviation from uniformity of a distribution of measured angles of the form alpha plus beta cosine (exp 2)(phi - phi(sub 0) (0 (is) less than phi is less than pi). We explore the statistics of such polarization measurements using both Monte Carlo simulations as well as analytic calculations based on the appropriate probability distributions. We derive relations for the number of counts required to reach a given detection level (parameterized by beta the "number of sigma's" of the measurement) appropriate for measuring the modulation amplitude alpha by itself (single interesting parameter case) or jointly with the position angle phi (two interesting parameters case). We show that for the former case when the intrinsic amplitude is equal to the well known minimum detectable polarization (MDP) it is, on average, detected at the 3sigma level. For the latter case, when one requires a joint measurement at the same confidence level, then more counts are needed, by a factor of approximately equal to 2.2, than that required to achieve the MDP level. We find that the position angle uncertainty at 1sigma confidence is well described by the relation sigma(sub pi) equals 28.5(degrees) divided by beta.

Strohmayer, T. E.↗

A Large Ordinary Chondrite Shower in the Dominion Range

The US Antarctic Meteorite Program has visited the Dominion Range in the Transantarctic Mountains during several different seasons, including the 1985, 2003, 2008, 2010, and 2014 seasons. Total recovered meteorites from this region is over 2000. The 2008 and 2010 seasons have been fully classified and, respectively) revealing the presence of a large meteorite shower that comprises approximately 60% of all samples recovered in those two seasons. The oil immersion classification suggests that this shower is LL chondrite material, whereas published magnetic susceptibility (MS; log chi) measurements yield L chondrite values. However, usually random sampling of a large collection like this would uncover EOC material for which we have prepared thin sections. In this case, no LL chondrite materials have been found in thin section, suggesting that the shower might instead be an L chondrite. L and LL chondrites are notoriously difficult to distinguish using oil immersion techniques. To better characterize this large group of samples, we have decided to examine some of the large members of this group, using EMPA analysis of the olivines to verify the classifications. With a compositional link between this subset of samples, and the MS measurements, we can more confidently classify the samples making up this pairing group. Subsequently, more accurate and meaningful comparisons may be drawn between this pairing group and some other Antarctic pairing groups such as from the Queen Alexandra Range (QUE), and Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue (LEW). electron microprobe analysis

Satterwhite, C. E.↗

Detector Based Calibration of a Portable Imaging Spectrometer for CLARREO Pathfinder Mission

The Climate Absolute Refractivity and Reflectance Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder (CPF) mission is being developed to demonstrate SI-traceable retrievals of reflectance at unprecedented accuracies for global satellite observations. An Independent Calibration of the CPF sensor using the Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance (GLAMR) is planned to allow validation of CPF accuracies. GLAMR is a detector-based calibration system relies on a set of NIST-calibrated transfer radiometers to assess the spectral radiance from the GLAMR sphere source to better than 0.3 % (k=2). The current work describes the calibration of the Solar, Lunar Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) that was originally developed as a calibration demonstration system for the CLARREO mission and is now being used to assess the independent calibration being developed for CPF. The methodology for the radiometric calibration of SOLARIS is presented as well as results from the GLAMR-based calibration of SOLARIS. The portability of SOLARIS makes it capable of collecting field measurements of earth scenes and direct solar and lunar irradiance similar to those expected during the on-orbit operation of the CPF sensor. Results of SOLARIS field measurements are presented. The use of SOLARIS in this effort also allows the testing protocols for GLAMR to be improved and the field measurements by SOLARIS build confidence in the error budget for GLAMR calibrations. Results are compared to accepted solar irradiance models to demonstrate accuracy values giving confidence in the error budget for the CLARREO reflectance retrieval.

Aytac, Yigit↗

GJ 3929: High-precision Photometric and Doppler Characterization of an Exo-Venus and Its Hot, Mini-Neptune-mass Companion

We detail the follow-up and characterization of a transiting exo-Venus identified by TESS, GJ 3929b (TOI-2013b), and its nontransiting companion planet, GJ 3929c (TOI-2013c). GJ 3929b is an Earth-sized exoplanet in its star’s Venus zone ( P b = 2.616272 ± 0.000005 days; S b = 17.3 +0.8 -0.7 S ⊕ ) orbiting a nearby M dwarf. GJ 3929c is most likely a nontransiting sub-Neptune. Using the new, ultraprecise NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory, we are able to modify the mass constraints of planet b reported in previous works and consequently improve the significance of the mass measurement to almost 4σ confidence ( M b = 1.75 ± 0.45 M ⊕ ). We further adjust the orbital period of planet c from its alias at 14.30 ± 0.03 days to the likely true period of 15.04 ± 0.03 days, and we adjust its minimum mass to m sin i = 5.71 ± 0.92 M ⊕ . Using the diffuser-assisted ARCTIC imager on the ARC 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory, in addition to publicly available TESS and LCOGT photometry, we are able to constrain the radius of planet b to R p = 1.09 ± 0.04 R ⊕ . GJ 3929b is a top candidate for transmission spectroscopy in its size regime (TSM = 14 ± 4), and future atmospheric studies of GJ 3929b stand to shed light on the nature of small planets orbiting M dwarfs.

Exoplanets↗

Representative Phenomena of Cyclic Turbulent Combustion in High-Pressure Fuel Sprays

Abstract Cyclic variations in conventional diesel combustion engines can lead to large differences in engine out emissions even at steady operation. This study uses an optically accessible constant-pressure flow chamber to acquire fuel injections in quick succession to analyze mixing, auto-ignition, and combustion of diesel-surrogate n-heptane using multiple high-speed optical diagnostics. Prior studies have utilized fewer injections and/or they rely on analysis of ensemble average behavior. These approaches do not yield information on injection-to-injection variation or provide confidence in utilizing individual injection measurements for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics(CFD) model validation. In this study, a large set of 500 injections is used to obtain global parameters including liquid length, vapor penetration length, ignition delay time, and lift-off length. Results for multiple injections are presented to illustrate large injection to injection variations. Potential sources for these variations are analyzed to conclude localized, small scale turbulence and rate of injection variations as the likely sources. Then, a statistical method based on z-scores is proposed and implemented to identify instantaneous injections that best represent the bulk data-set of jet boundaries measured independently by three different diagnostics. This synthesis of statistics-guided screening of data set and ensemble-average analysis offers higher confidence for CFD model validation relying upon both a representative single and average injection results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Polyethylene density uncertainty in the simulation of neutron detectors

Simulations with the Monte Carlo N-Particle® (MCNP®) code are frequently used to study neutron coincidence counters for international safeguards. Reducing sources of uncertainty enables more accurate simulations, which reduces the need for expensive or impossible measurements. Accurately specifying the density of polyethylene is crucial for accurate simulations. The density of polyethylene ranges from 0.88 to 0.97 g/cm 3 and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) ranges from about 0.944 to 0.965 g/cm 3 . The density of a specific detector should be measured exactly for the best simulations. Here, the density of the blue/white Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) bulk polyethylene was measured to be 0.9594 +- 0.0013 g/cm 3 at 1-sigma confidence. The density was calculated from repeated measurements of the various polyethylene dimensions for volume, and weighing the polyethylene for the mass. The AWCC neutron detection efficiency was simulated for each polyethylene density. The relative range of efficiencies (3σ) was 3.4% for unspecified polyethylene, 0.9% for HDPE, and 0.3% for the measured density. The impact of modeling small features such as screws was also studied and was found to be a negligible 0.2%. Measuring polyethylene density can reduce its role in uncertainty from one of the largest to one of the smallest contributors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗

Search for X-ray polarization in the Crab pulsar

Results of a search for X-ray polarization in the Crab pulsar are presented which were obtained by observing the pulsar at 2.6 and 5.2 keV with identical X-ray polarimeters aboard OSO 8. The polarization in different portions of the X-ray light curve is analyzed, the polarization contribution due to the nebula is removed, and the results of the analysis are given for isolated portions of both the primary pulse and the interpulse at 2.6 and 5.2 keV. No evidence for X-ray polarization is found at the 99% confidence level; 3-sigma upper limits to the polarization at 2.6 keV are given along with the largest polarization allowed at 5.2 keV by the 99% confidence counter. It is noted that the trailing edge of the interpulse at 2.6 keV is 26% polarized at the 92% confidence level, while the 5.2-keV polarization measurement of 40% in the leading edge of the primary pulse is different from zero at 96% confidence. X-ray and optical polarization measurements are compared.

Silver, E. H.↗

Application of radiochromic gel dosimetry to commissioning of a megavoltage research linear accelerator for small–field animal irradiation studies

To develop and implement an efficient and accurate commissioning procedure for small-field static beam animal irradiation studies on an MV research linear accelerator (Linatron-M9) using radiochromic gel dosimetry. The research linear accelerator (Linatron-M9) is a 9 MV linac with a static fixed collimator opening of 5.08 cm diameter. Lead collimators were manually placed to create smaller fields of 2 × 2 cm 2 , 1 × 1 cm 2 , and 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 . Relative dosimetry measurements were performed, including profiles, percent depth dose (PDD) curves, beam divergence, and relative output factors using various dosimetry tools, including a small volume ionization chamber (A14), GAFCHROMIC™ EBT3 film, and Clearview gel dosimeters. The gel dosimeter was used to provide a 3D volumetric reference of the irradiated fields. The Linatron profiles and relative output factors were extracted at a reference depth of 2 cm with the output factor measured relative to the 2 × 2 cm 2 reference field. Absolute dosimetry was performed using A14 ionization chamber measurements, which were verified using a national standards laboratory remote dosimetry service. Absolute dosimetry measurements were confirmed within 1.4% (k = 2, 95% confidence = 5%). The relative output factor of the small fields measured with films and gels agreed with a maximum relative percent error difference between the two methods of 1.1 % for the 1 × 1 cm 2 field and 4.3 % for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 field. These relative errors were primarily due to the variability in the collimator positioning. The measured beam profiles demonstrated excellent agreement for beam size (measured as FWHM), within approximately 0.8 mm (or less). Film measurements were more accurate in the penumbra region due to the film’s finer resolution compared with the gel dosimeter. Following the van Dyk criteria, the PDD values of the film and gel measurements agree within 11% in the buildup region starting from 0.5 cm depth and within 2.6 % beyond maximum dose and into the fall-off region for depths up to 5 cm. The 2D beam profile isodose lines agree within 0.5 mm in all regions for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 and the 1 × 1 cm 2 fields and within 1 mm for the larger field of 2 × 2 cm 2 . The 2D PDD curves agree within approximately 2% of the maximum in the typical therapy region (1–4 cm) for the 1 × 1 cm 2 and 2 × 2 cm 2 and within 5% for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 field. This work provides a commissioning process to measure the beam characteristics of a fixed beam MV accelerator with detailed dosimetric evaluation for its implementation in megavoltage small animal irradiation studies. Radiochromic gel dosimeters are efficient small-field relative dosimetry tools providing 3D dose measurements allowing for full representation of dose, dosimeter misalignment corrections and high reproducibility with low inter-dosimeter variability. Altogether, radiochromic gels are valuable for fast, full relative dosimetry commissioning in comparison to films for application in high-energy small-field animal irradiation studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Obtaining Stokes Parameters from the SUMI Experiment

A sounding rocket experiment designed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, named the Solar Ultraviolet Magnetograph Investigation, had its second launch in July of 2012 to test the feasibility of measuring polarization signals of the ionized magnesium resonance doublet near 280 nm, originating from the transition region. The rocket housed a telescope at the front end and an imaging system at the rear end. Placed at the focal point of the self‐filtering telescope, a wave plate rotated through 12 predefined angular orientations to restrict the measurements to specific combinations of circular and linear polarization. Coupled with a double Wollaston analyzer, the linearly polarized ordinary and extraordinary beams were measured for the 12 combinations, each containing different fractions of the Stokes parameters (I, Q, U, V). A thorough analysis of the data has allowed us to come to several conclusions regarding the design of the experiment. 1) We are confident that polarization can be measured. A sunspot region was determined to exhibit similar results over multiple pixels. 2) Measurements are limited by resolution, i.e. regions smaller than the angular resolution per pixel cannot be resolved with any certainty. 3) Temporal evolution of magnetic features must be considered in future experimental designs. Measurements need to be taken in repeated cycles as opposed to a single cycle over the duration of the experiment. In our presentation, we will provide a summary of the observations along with the methods of our analysis, including the limitations that we've encountered.

Fayock, Brian↗

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗