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DOE OSTI2025

AWSD Reactive Burn Model for High Explosive LX‐14

ABSTRACT The results of an Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow calibration for the HMX‐based high explosive LX‐14 are presented. The parameters in the AWSD model are calibrated to experimental thermodynamic and gas gun data and to computational results from thermochemical calculations. There is no experimental rate stick data available for LX‐14; therefore, scaled experimental results from other PBX‐based high explosives are used in the calibration to fill this gap in data. Strong agreement is observed between the calibrated AWSD model and experimental data for LX‐14, including validation data that were not used in the calibration procedure. The developed model more accurately describes experimental shock‐to‐detonation results compared to several other reactive flow models for LX‐14 from the literature. The presented results illustrate that the AWSD model is capable of quantitatively describing the reactive burn of LX‐14.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Calibration Framework with Embedded Model Error for Model Diagnostics

We study the utility and performance of a Bayesian model error embedding construction in the context of molecular dynamics modeling of metallic alloys, where we embed model error terms in existing interatomic potential model parameters. To alleviate the computational burden of this approach, we propose a framework combining likelihood approximation and Gaussian process surrogates. Here we leverage sparse Gaussian process techniques to construct a hierarchy of increasingly accurate but more expensive surrogate models. This hierarchy is then exploited by multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the target posterior distribution. We illustrate the utility of this approach by calibrating an interatomic potential model for a family of gold-copper alloys. In particular, this case study highlights effective means for dealing with computational challenges with Bayesian model error embedding in large-scale physical models, and the utility of embedded model error for model diagnostics.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Robotic Lighting System for Solar Illumination Simulation

This report details our development fo a computer controlled spotlight with four actuated degrees-of-freedom for pan, tilt, linear movement and beam focusing. We review the mechanical structure, kinematic model, calibration data, and control algorithm.

space station freedom ssf solar illumination orbit↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Predictive Scale-Bridging Simulations through Active Learning (Institutional Computing Annual Report (Project w21_alscalebridging)) [Slides]

The goal of this project was to develop, demonstrate, and provide a new capability to achieve greater physical fidelity in large-scale simulations, rather than the usual brute-force increases in the number of mesh elements or particles. Transport in nanoporous media, critical to hydrocarbon extraction from tight shale formations, is affected by molecular-level interactions. Several coarse-scale Lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) parameters cannot be directly computed, so instead we calibrate them to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, by building emulators that mimic MD and LBM behavior and then training an upscaler. The resulting machine learning (ML)-based scale-bridging framework is up to 7 orders of magnitude faster than direct MD.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1996

Research on Spectroscopy, Opacity, and Atmospheres

Kurucz, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Model Stellar Atmospheres and Real Stellar Atmospheres and Status of the ATLAS12 Opacity Sampling Program and of New Programs for Rosseland and for Distribution Function Opacity

I discuss errors in theory and in interpreting observations that are produced by the failure to consider resolution in space, time, and energy. I discuss convection in stellar model atmospheres and in stars. Large errors in abundances are possible such as the factor of ten error in the Li abundance for extreme Population II stars. Finally I discuss the variation of microturbulent velocity with depth, effective temperature, gravity, and abundance. These variations must be dealt with in computing models and grids and in any type of photometric calibration. I have also developed a new opacity-sampling version of my model atmosphere program called ATLAS12. It recognizes more than 1000 atomic and molecular species, each in up to 10 isotopic forms. It can treat all ions of the elements up through Zn and the first 5 ions of heavier elements up through Es. The elemental and isotopic abundances are treated as variables with depth. The fluxes predicted by ATLAS12 are not accurate in intermediate or narrow bandpass intervals because the sample size is too small. A special stripped version of the spectrum synthesis program SYNTHE is used to generate the surface flux for the converged model using the line data on CD-ROMs 1 and 15. ATLAS12 can be used to produce improved models for Am and Ap stars. It should be very useful for investigating diffusion effects in atmospheres. It can be used to model exciting stars for H II regions with abundances consistent with those of the H II region. These programs and line files will be distributed on CD-ROMs.

Kurucz, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

C/NOFS Measurements of Magnetic Perturbations in the Low-Latitude Ionosphere During Magnetic Storms

The Vector Electric Field Investigation suite on the C/NOFS satellite includes a fluxgate magnetometer to monitor the Earth s magnetic fields in the low-latitude ionosphere. Measurements yield full magnetic vectors every second over the range of +/-45,000 nT with a one-bit resolution of 1.37 nT (16 bit A/D) in each component. The sensor s primary responsibility is to support calculations of both V x B and E x B with greater accuracy than can be obtained using standard magnetic field models. The data also contain information about large-scale current systems that, when analyzed in conjunction with electric field measurements, promise to significantly expand understanding of equatorial electrodynamics. We first compare in situ measurements with the POMME (Potsdam Magnetic Model of the Earth) model to establish in-flight sensor "calibrations" and to compute magnetic residuals. At low latitudes the residuals are predominately products of the storm time ring current. Since C/NOFS provides a complete coverage of all local times every 97 min, magnetic field data allow studies of the temporal evolution and local time variations of storm time ring current. The analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using instrumented spacecraft in low-inclination orbits to extract a timely proxy for the provisional Dst index and to specify the ring current s evolution.

Le, Guan↗

NASA NTRS2012

C/NOFS Measurements of Stormtime Magnetic Perturbations in the Low-latitude Ionosphere

The Vector Electric Field Investigation suite on the C/NOFS satellite includes a fluxgate magnetometer to monitor the Earth's magnetic fields in the low-latitude ionosphere. Measurements yield full magnetic vectors every second over the range of +/- 45,000 nT with a one-bit resolution of 1.37 nT (16 bit AID) in each component. The sensor's primary responsibility is to support calculations of both VxB and ExB with greater accuracy than can be obtained using standard magnetic field models. The data also contain information about large-scale current systems, that, when analyzed in conjunction with electric field measurements, promise to significantly expand understanding of equatorial electrodynamics. We first compare in situ measurements with the POMME (POtsdam Magnetic Model of the Earth) model to establish in-flight sensor "calibrations" and to compute magnetic residuals. At low latitudes the residuals are predominately products of the stormtime ring current. Since C/NOFS provides a complete coverage of all local times every 97 minutes, magnetic field data allow studies of the temporal evolution and local-time variations of stormtime ring current. The analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using instrumented spacecraft in low-inclination orbits to extract a timely proxy for the provisional Dst index and to specify the ring current's evolution.

Le, Guan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Geologic Behavior in Carbon Storage Projects Using Graph Neural Network

This study was invited to presented at NVIDIA's GTC conference to highlight the potential of Graph Neural Network as a novel and promising methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in carbon storage projects. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology plays a pivotal role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, facilitating the transition to a low-carbon future. Effective management of subsurface reservoirs is essential to ensure the safe and efficient storage of captured carbon dioxide (CO₂). Accurate predictions of pressure and saturation over time are critical for evaluating the long-term performance and integrity of CCS projects. In recent years, Graph Neural Network (GNN) has emerged as a powerful framework for analyzing complex data in graph-structured domains. This abstract explores the application of GNN to forecast pressure and saturation evolution in carbon storage projects. Traditional numerical simulations of subsurface reservoirs have proven successful in providing pressure and saturation forecasts. However, these simulations involve massive amounts of computational effort and require extensive domain expertise for proper model calibration and validation. Graph Neural Operator offers an alternative approach that harnesses the inherent graph structure of reservoirs, where nodes represent reservoir grid cells and edges represent the geological connectivity between them.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

NASA NTRS1987

Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 3: ERBE scanner measurement accuracy analysis due to reduced housekeeping data

The accuracy of scanner measurements was evaluated when the sampling frequency of sensor housekeeping (HK) data was reduced from once every scan to once every eight scans. The resulting increase in uncertainty was greatest for sources with rapid or extreme temperature changes. This analysis focused on the mirror attenuator mosaic (MAM) baffle and plate and scanner radiometer baffle due to their relatively high temperature changes during solar calibrations. Since only solar simulator data were available, the solar temperatures were approximated on these components and the radiative and thermal gradients in the MAM baffle due to reflected sunlight. Of the two cases considered for the MAM plate and baffle temperatures, one uses temperatures obtained from the ground calibration. The other attempt uses temperatures computed from the MAM baffle model. This analysis shows that the heat input variations due largely to the solar radiance and irradiance during a scan cycle are small. It also demonstrates that reasonable intervals longer than the current HK data acquisition interval should not significantly affect the estimation of a radiation field in the sensor field-of-view.

Choi, Sang H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.14

Sandia's Dakota software supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, Dakota manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to: (1) enhance understanding of risk, (2) improve products, and (3) assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a computational model. Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. The algorithms implemented in Dakota aim to address challenges in performing these analyses with complex science and engineering models from desktop to high performance computers. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525 SAND2021-10468 O

Adams, BrianM.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.16

Adams, BrianM.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Accuracy metrics for judging time scale algorithms

Time scales have been constructed in different ways to meet the many demands placed upon them for time accuracy, frequency accuracy, long-term stability, and robustness. Usually, no single time scale is optimum for all purposes. In the context of the impending availability of high-accuracy intermittently-operated cesium fountains, we reconsider the question of evaluating the accuracy of time scales which use an algorithm to span interruptions of the primary standard. We consider a broad class of calibration algorithms that can be evaluated and compared quantitatively for their accuracy in the presence of frequency drift and a full noise model (a mixture of white PM, flicker PM, white FM, flicker FM, and random walk FM noise). We present the analytic techniques for computing the standard uncertainty for the full noise model and this class of calibration algorithms. The simplest algorithm is evaluated to find the average-frequency uncertainty arising from the noise of the cesium fountain's local oscillator and from the noise of a hydrogen maser transfer-standard. This algorithm and known noise sources are shown to permit interlaboratory frequency transfer with a standard uncertainty of less than 10(exp -15) for periods of 30-100 days.

Douglas, R. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing an experimental-computational framework to investigate the deformation mechanisms and mechanical properties of Al-8Ce-10Mg alloys at micro and macroscales

There is a promising future for the use of aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloys in a broad range of applications, including devices that operate at high temperatures. With cerium currently considered a waste product of rare earth mining validation studies of possible applications are essential to reduce the environmental waste. Here, a computational-experimental framework is developed to investigate the role both the intermetallic and matrix have on the mechanical properties of these alloys. A set of experiments, including SEM/EBSD imaging, nanoindentation, in-situ SEM tensile testing, and in-situ SEM-DIC tests are performed to characterize the microstructure and mechanical properties of these alloys. Furthermore, the elastic, plastic, and failure deformation mechanisms of the microstructure, and their correlation with the bulk scale mechanical properties are investigated. Experimental results are also used to calibrate parameters for a crystal plasticity finite element model, by performing a computational framework that minimizes the error between the computational and experimental results. This model is then utilized to investigate how the area percentage of intermetallics and the crystallographic texture control the mechanical properties of the alloy. Simulation results show that an increase in the percentage of intermetallics increase the strength but decrease the ductility of the alloy. Also, a change in material texture improves strength and reduces damage that leads to material failure. The development of the crystal plasticity model, as discussed in this work, opens opportunities for future investigations of similar aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

PyJMAK: An Open-Source Python Toolkit for Modeling Solid-State Metallurgical Phase Transformations

Accurate prediction of metallurgical phase transformations is an essential basis for autonomous optimization and rapid part qualification. Several methods can be used to estimate the evolution of phase fractions such as JMAK kinetics-based models, phase-field models, thermodynamic models, and data-driven machine learning models. Thermodynamic and phase-field-based methodologies solve multiphysics equations requiring numerous calibration parameters and significant computational resources. As a result, the computation domain is limited to a point or on order of micron-meters. The data-driven models rely on large datasets from experiments and simulations. While the JMAK model only provides information about phase fraction evolution, it can predict this evolution in near real-time using thermal history and thermodynamic data without restriction on the domain. JMAK models have been popularly used by researchers to model phase transformations occuring during additive manufacturing or over arbitrary temperature profiles. Commercial proprietary software such as Abaqus and Ansys or closed-source in-house implementations offer the ability to model JMAK based kinetics to predict phase transformation. However, these software packages are not open-source or freely available for use and development in conjunction with manufacturing machines, sensors, and machine learning algorithms. In addition, the use of the model is restricted by a license token. In contrast, given temperature profiles at multiple points in the domain, this Python-based PyJMAK model can compute phase evolution in parallel due to its stand-alone modular, voxel-based structure, and it can be executed on high-performance computing resources without any license restrictions.

Prabhune, Bhagya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗