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NASA NTRS1990

Feedback Processes and Climate Response

The response of the climate system to an external perturbation--e.g., a change in solar irradiance or a change in atmospheric opacity due to an increase in CO2--depends rather strongly on feedback processes in the system, which either amplify or dampen the effects of the initial perturbation. A simple representation of the climate system is used to compare several important feedbacks, based upon general circulation model (GCM) simulations by various investigators. The models are in general agreement with respect to water vapor feedback, but in wide disagreement with respect to cloud feedback. Because of the arguments raised by Lindzen (1990)--that the processes which determine water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere are quite different from those which operate in the planetary boundary layer, and that upper tropospheric water vapor might actually decrease even when the boundary layer is getting warmer and more moist--researchers undertook a study to determine the sensitivity of climate to changes in water vapor at various levels in the troposphere. The result is that climate is just as sensitive to percentage changes in upper tropospheric water vapor, where the mixing ratio is very small, as it is to percentage changes in the boundary layer, which contains the bulk of total column water vapor.

Arking, Albert↗

NASA NTRS2016

Observation-Based Cloud Radiative Kernels from A-Train

We develop a method to empirically derive broadband and spectral cloud radiative kernels by cloud type from pixel-scale collocated A-Train observations and reanalysis, which does not require additional cloudy radiative transfer calculations nor cloud properties. This method is able to estimate the cloud feedback by maintaining the consistency between CRKs and cloud responses.

Yue, Qing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud Climate Data Records from Geostationary Satellites to Support CERES: Challenges and Recent Progress

clouds↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Consistent GEOsat Cloud Property Dataset for the CERES Climate Data Record

Cloud properties are critical for understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and cloud feedbacks. At NASA Langley Research Center, the Satellite ClOud and Radiative Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) provides real-time and historical analyses of clouds derived from Geostationary satellite (GEOsat) data for weather and climate applications. For the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) program, the global constellation of GEOsats has been analyzed since 2000 to help characterize and account for the diurnal cycle of clouds and their radiative impacts in the CERES climate data record. Obtaining consistent cloud properties over the GEOsat data record during the CERES era is a major objective but a significant challenge considering the diversity of imaging capabilities deployed during that time. The GEOsat data analysis approach for the current CERES Edition-4 (Ed4) data products was focused on accuracy and consistency with MODIS by employing as much spectral information as possible from each satellite. However, the inconsistent use of spectral information across GEOsats led to marked discontinuities in the spatial and temporal record of cloud properties that had to be accounted for post facto in downstream CERES processing. This paper reports progress in developing a new GEOsat analysis system for the next CERES edition (Ed5) that has potential to improve cross-platform consistency and continuity. In this approach, the spectral channel complement is limited to just 3-channels during daytime, ~0.65 µm (VIS), ~3.9 µm (NIR), and ~10.8 µm (IR), common to nearly all of the satellites in the record. At night, a 2-channel approach is taken with the NIR and IR, and ~6.7 µm bands that includes a machine learning approach for optically thick cloud properties. A tradeoff is the potential for reduced accuracy particularly using data from the more advanced satellites that have more spectral channels (e.g. SEVIRI, AHI and ABI) that are known to help improve thin cirrus detection, cloud-aerosol discrimination and estimates in other difficult conditions that challenge cloud remote sensing. The new continuity approach is applied to one month of global GEOSat data for each year of the CERES record since 2000 and compared with the Ed4 GEO and MODIS cloud property time series in order to evaluate the level of improved consistency in the GEOsat record and to assess the accuracy impacts. Cloud fraction will also be assessed with CALIPSO data. Outstanding issues and challenges will be discussed. The results are expected to guide future work needed to develop a more robust GEOsat cloud data record for CERES.

CERES CDR↗

DOE OSTI2023

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

Abstract The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Is the high N_d of springtime Arctic water clouds an indication of ice algae – aerosol – cloud – Arctic melting feedback?

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

clouds↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Observations of Southern Ocean Clouds and Implications for Climate

Southern Ocean (S. Ocean) clouds are important for climate prediction. Yet previous global climate models failed to accurately represent cloud phase distributions in this observation-sparse region. In this study, data from the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol, Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) experiment is compared to constrained simulations from a global climate model (the Community Atmosphere Model, CAM). Nudged versions of CAM are found to reproduce many of the features of detailed in situ observations, such as cloud location, cloud phase, and boundary layer structure. The simulation in CAM6 has improved its representation of S. Ocean clouds with adjustments to the ice nucleation and cloud microphysics schemes that permit more supercooled liquid. Comparisons between modeled and observed hydrometeor size distributions suggest that the modeled hydrometeor size distributions represent the dual peaked shape and form of observed distributions, which is remarkable given the scale difference between model and observations. Comparison to satellite observations of cloud physics is difficult due to model assumptions that do not match retrieval assumptions. Some biases in the model's representation of S. Ocean clouds and aerosols remain, but the detailed cloud physical parameterization provides a basis for process level improvement and direct comparisons to observations. This is crucial because cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity are sensitive to the representation of S. Ocean clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

RACORO Extended-Term Aircraft Observations of Boundary-Layer Clouds

Small boundary-layer clouds are ubiquitous over many parts of the globe and strongly influence the Earths radiative energy balance. However, our understanding of these clouds is insufficient to solve pressing scientific problems. For example, cloud feedback represents the largest uncertainty amongst all climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCM). Several issues complicate understanding boundary-layer clouds and simulating them in GCMs. The high spatial variability of boundary-layer clouds poses an enormous computational challenge, since their horizontal dimensions and internal variability occur at spatial scales much finer than the computational grids used in GCMs. Aerosol-cloud interactions further complicate boundary-layer cloud measurement and simulation. Additionally, aerosols influence processes such as precipitation and cloud lifetime. An added complication is that at small scales (order meters to 10s of meters) distinguishing cloud from aerosol is increasingly difficult, due to the effects of aerosol humidification, cloud fragments and photon scattering between clouds.

boundary layer↗

NASA NTRS1984

Cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem

A radiative-convective equilibrium model is developed and applied to study cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem. The basic hypothesis is that in the warmer and moister CO2-rich atmosphere, cloud liquid water content will generally be larger too. For clouds other than thin cirrus the result is to increase the albedo more than to increase the greenhouse effect. Thus, the sign of the feedback is negative: cloud optical properties act as a thermostat and alter in such a way as to reduce the surface and tropospheric warming caused by the addition of CO2. This negative feedback can be substantial. When observational estimates of the temperature dependence of cloud liquid water content are employed in the model, the surface temperature change caused by doubling CO2 is reduced by about one half. This result is obtained for global and annual average conditions, no change in cloud amount or altitude, and constant relative humidity. These idealizations, together with other simplifications typical of one-dimensional radiative-convective climate models, render the result tentative. Further study of cloud optical property feedbacks is warranted, however, because the climate is apparently so sensitive to them.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increasing wintertime cloud opacity increases surface longwave radiation at a long-term Arctic observatory

As the Arctic warms, winter clouds are known and expected to change. Yet the extent to which these cloud changes amplify or dampen warming (cloud feedback) remains uncertain. This uncertainty results from systemic difficulties in modeling and observing Arctic low clouds. Surface-based observations avoid many of these difficulties. Here, we use two decades of surface-based observations (1998–2023) to constrain and explain longwave flux change during winter. We find that longwave flux into the surface is increasing and that this increase cannot be explained by direct impacts of temperature and greenhouse gases alone. Only when increasing cloud radiative effect (0.96 ± 0.64 W/m 2 /K) is considered can increasing longwave flux be explained. Cloud radiative effect increases due to increasing cloud opacity, which is driven equally by ice-only and mixed-phase clouds. The direct observational constraint from this work suggests that increasing cloud opacity drives increasing net surface radiation on Alaska’s North Slope during winter.

Bertrand, Leah [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Un↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cloud radiative forcing in a general circulation model

Preliminary results are reported from a simulation carried out with the UCLA/Goddard GCM to investigate cloud radiative forcing phenomena. Of particular interest was cloud feedback, i.e., the changes in forcing brought about by climate change. Early results indicate that clouds cool the tropical oceans and land surface and warm the tropical atmosphere.

Randall, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft-Measured Indirect Cloud Effects from Biomass Burning Smoke in the Arctic and Subarctic

The incidence of wildfires in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, for example, the burned area is expected to increase by 200-300% over the next 50-100 years, which previous studies suggest could have a large effect on cloud microphysics, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and clouds remain poorly quantified due to confounding meteorological influences and remote sensing limitations. Here, we use data from several aircraft campaigns in the Arctic and subarctic to explore cloud microphysics in liquid-phase clouds influenced by biomass burning. Median cloud droplet radii in smoky clouds were approx. 40- 60% smaller than in background clouds. Based on the relationship between cloud droplet number (N(liq)/ and various biomass burning tracers (BBt/ across the multi-campaign data set, we calculated the magnitude of subarctic and Arctic smoke aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs, where ACI = (1/3) x dln(N(liq))/dln(BBt)) to be approx. 0.16 out of a maximum possible value of 0.33 that would be obtained if all aerosols were to nucleate cloud droplets. Interestingly, in a separate subarctic case study with low liquid water content (0.02 gm/cu m and very high aerosol concentrations (2000- 3000/ cu cm in the most polluted clouds, the estimated ACI value was only 0.05. In this case, competition for water vapor by the high concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) strongly limited the formation of droplets and reduced the cloud albedo effect, which highlights the importance of cloud feedbacks across scales. Using our calculated ACI values, we estimate that the smoke-driven cloud albedo effect may decrease local summertime short-wave radiative flux by between 2 and 4 W/sq m or more under some low and homogeneous cloud cover conditions in the subarctic, although the changes should be smaller in high surface albedo regions of the Arctic.We lastly explore evidence suggesting that numerous northern-latitude background Aitken particles can interact with combustion particles, perhaps impacting their properties as cloud condensation and ice nuclei.

cloud microphysics↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft-Measured Indirect Cloud Effects from Biomass Burning Smoke in the Arctic and Subarctic

The incidence of wildfires in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, for example, the burned area is expected to increase by 200-300 over the next 50-100 years, which previous studies suggest could have a large effect on cloud microphysics, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and clouds remain poorly quantified due to confounding meteorological influences and remote sensing limitations. Here, we use data from several aircraft campaigns in the Arctic and subarctic to explore cloud microphysics in liquid-phase clouds influenced by biomass burning. Median cloud droplet radii in smoky clouds were 50 smaller than in background clouds. Based on the relationship between cloud droplet number (N(liq))/ and various biomass burning tracers (BBt/ across the multi-campaign dataset, we calculated the magnitude of subarctic and Arctic smoke aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI, where ACI = (1/3) x dln(N(liq))/dln(BBt)) to be 0.12 out of a maximum possible value of 0.33 that would be obtained if all aerosols were to nucleate cloud droplets. Interestingly, in a separate subarctic case study with low liquid water content (0.02 gm/ cu m) and very high aerosol concentrations (2000-3000 cu m) in the most polluted clouds, the estimated ACI value was only 0.06. In this case, competition for water vapor by the high concentration of CCN strongly limited the formation of droplets and reduced the cloud albedo effect, which highlights the importance of cloud feedbacks across scales. Using our calculated ACI values, we estimate that the smoke-driven cloud albedo effect may decrease shortwave radiative flux by 2 and 4 W/sq or more under some low and homogeneous cloud cover conditions in the subarctic, although the changes should be smaller in high surface albedo regions of the Arctic. We lastly show evidence to suggest that numerous northern latitude background Aitken particles can interact with combustion particles, perhaps impacting their properties as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. However, the influence of background particles on smoke-driven indirect effects is currently unclear.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2023

Dominant Cloud Controlling Factors for Low-Level Cloud Fraction: Subtropical Versus Extratropical Oceans

To improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low-level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10-m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter (Δ𝜃 800hPa skin ) are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low-level cloud fraction reveals that: Δ𝜃 800hPa skin dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10-m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas.

cloud controlling factor↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Association Between Cloud Droplet Number over the Summer Southern Ocean and Air Mass History

The cloud properties and governing processes in Southern Ocean marine boundary layer clouds have emerged as a central issue in understanding the Earth's climate sensitivity. While our understanding of Southern Ocean cloud feedbacks have evolved in the most recent climate model intercomparison, the background properties of simulated summertime clouds in the Southern Ocean are not consistent with measurements due to known biases in simulating cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. This paper presents several case studies collected during the Capricorn 2 and Marcus campaigns held aboard Australian research vessels in the Austral Summer of 2018. Combining the surface–observed cases with MODIS data along forward and backward air mass trajectories, we demonstrate the evolution of cloud properties with time. These cases are consistent with multi–year statistics showing that long trajectories of air masses over the Antarctic ice sheet are critical to creating high droplet number clouds in the high latitude summer Southern Ocean. We speculate that secondary aerosol production via the oxidation of biogenically derived aerosol precursor gasses over the high actinic flux region of the high latitude ice sheets is fundamental to maintaining relatively high droplet numbers in Southern Ocean clouds during Summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Insights on sources and formation mechanisms of liquid-bearing clouds over MOSAiC examined from a Lagrangian framework

Understanding Arctic stratiform liquid-bearing cloud life cycles and properly representing these life cycles in models is crucial for evaluations of cloud feedbacks as well as the faithfulness of climate projections for this rapidly warming region. Examination of cloud life cycles typically requires analyses of cloud evolution and origins on short time scales, on the order of hours to several days. Measurements from the recent Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition provide a unique view of the current state of the central Arctic over an annual cycle. Here, we use the MOSAiC radiosonde measurements to detect liquid-bearing cloud layers over full atmospheric columns and to examine the cloud-generating air masses’ properties. We perform 5-day (120 h) back-trajectory calculations for every detected cloud and cluster them using a unique set of variables extracted from these trajectories informed by ERA5 reanalysis data. This clustering method enables us to separate between the air mass source regions such as ice-covered Arctic and midlatitude open water. We find that moisture intrusions into the central Arctic typically result in multilayer liquid-bearing cloud structures and that more than half of multilayer profiles include overlying liquid-bearing clouds originating in different types of air masses. Finally, we conclude that Arctic cloud formation via prolonged radiative cooling of elevated stable subsaturated air masses circulating over the Arctic can occur frequently (up to 20% of detected clouds in the sounding data set) and may lead to a significant impact of ensuing clouds on the surface energy budget, including net surface warming in some cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Spectral Longwave Cloud Radiative Forcing as Observed by AIRS

AIRS V6 products contain the spectral contributions to Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), clear-sky OLR (OLR(sub CLR)), and Longwave Cloud Radiative Forcing (LWCRF) in 16 bands from 100 cm(exp -1) to 3260 cm(exp -1). We show climatologies of selected spectrally resolved AIRS V6 products over the period of September 2002 through August 2016. Spectrally resolved LWCRF can better describe the response of the Earth system to cloud and cloud feedback processes. The spectral LWCRF enables us to estimate the fraction of each contributing factor to cloud forcing, i.e.: surface temperature, mid to upper tropospheric water vapor, and tropospheric temperature. This presentation also compares the spatial characteristics of LWCRF from AIRS, CERES_EBAF Edition-2.8, and MERRA-2. AIRS and CERES LWCRF products show good agreement. The OLR bias between AIRS and CERES is very close to that of OLR(sub CLR). This implies that both AIRS and CERES OLR products accurately account for the effect of clouds on OLR.

Cloud radiative forcing↗