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At least 163 records · Page 9

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

A new model is presented for the coupled evolution of climate and rotation, as applied to Mars. It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation, and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 7) years. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Many important issues remain unresolved: What are the ages of the polar caps? What climatic periods are recorded in the polar layered deposits? What is the long term obliquity history? Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bills, Bruce G.↗

Space-Based Ornithology: On the Wings of Migration and Biophysics

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Public interest is high with concerns about avian flu, Katrina and its impacts, and the recent sightings of the ivory-billed woodpecker. Space based technology gives us new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Together with the USGS and other agencies, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance and drive these models with satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Dynamic state variable modeling provides an additional tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to our mechanistic models describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We also build upon the canopy done by the Environmental Laboratory over the past few years.

Smith, James A.↗

Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

Neigh, Christopher S.R.↗

A UAV-Based Fog Collector Design for Fine-Scale Aerobiological Sampling

Airborne microbes are found throughout the troposphere and into the stratosphere. Knowing how the activity of airborne microorganisms can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is vital to a full understanding of local and global ecosystems. Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions vary in habitability; the underlying geochemical, climatic, and ecological dynamics must be characterized at different scales to be effectively modeled. Most aerobiological studies have focused on a high level: 'How high are airborne microbes found?' and 'How far can they travel?' Most fog and cloud water studies collect from stationary ground stations (point) or along flight transects (1D). To complement and provide context for this data, we have designed a UAV-based modified fog and cloud water collector to retrieve 4D-resolved samples for biological and chemical analysis.Our design uses a passive impacting collector hanging from a rigid rod suspended between two multi-rotor UAVs. The suspension design reduces the effect of turbulence and potential for contamination from the UAV downwash. The UAVs are currently modeled in a leader-follower configuration, taking advantage of recent advances in modular UAVs, UAV swarming, and flight planning.The collector itself is a hydrophobic mesh. Materials including Tyvek, PTFE, nylon, and polypropylene monofilament fabricated via laser cutting, CNC knife, or 3D printing were characterized for droplet collection efficiency using a benchtop atomizer and particle counter. Because the meshes can be easily and inexpensively fabricated, a set can be pre-sterilized and brought to the field for 'hot swapping' to decrease cross-contamination between flight sessions or use as negative controls.An onboard sensor and logging system records the time and location of each sample; when combined with flight tracking data, the samples can be resolved into a 4D volumetric map of the fog bank. Collected samples can be returned to the lab for a variety of analyses. Based on a review of existing flight studies, we have identified ion chromatography, metagenomic sequencing, cell staining and quantification, and ATP quantification as high-priority assays for implementation. Support for specific toxicology assays, such as methylmercury quantification, is also planned.

Design↗

The Geology of the Pluto System

NASA's New Horizons mission acquired a large set of images and other data making possible thorough geological analysis of landscapes in the Pluto System. Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic investigation, modelling and mapping revealed that much of Pluto's surface is attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required long periods of internal heating, such as Pluto's extensive tectonic fabric. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planitia are thought to be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. The prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planitia, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. These multi-km-high mound features might be cryo-volcanoes. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. East of Sputnik Planitia are large fields of aligned ranks of sharp-crested ridges found only at high altitude that are apparently composed of massive deposits of CH4 ice, referred to as Bladed Terrain. New Horizons found evidence that Bladed Terrain may cover much of Pluto's low latitudes and may have originally formed there as a consequence of Pluto's very high obliquity. Currently Bladed Terrain is undergoing net erosion. This observation, along with evidence for formally more extensive nitrogen glaciation implies that Pluto undergoes significant climate evolution. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, J. M.↗

A UAV-Based Fog Collector Design for Fine-Scale Aerobiological Sampling

Airborne microbes are found throughout the troposphere and into the stratosphere. Knowing how the activity of airborne microorganisms can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is vital to a full understanding of local and global ecosystems. Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions vary in habitability; the underlying geochemical, climatic, and ecological dynamics must be characterized at different scales to be effectively modeled. Most aerobiological studies have focused on a high level: 'How high are airborne microbes found?' and 'How far can they travel?' Most fog and cloud water studies collect from stationary ground stations (point) or along flight transects (1D). To complement and provide context for this data, we have designed a UAV-based modified fog and cloud water collector to retrieve 4D-resolved samples for biological and chemical analysis.Our design uses a passive impacting collector hanging from a rigid rod suspended between two multi-rotor UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). The suspension design reduces the effect of turbulence and potential for contamination from the UAV downwash. The UAVs are currently modeled in a leader-follower configuration, taking advantage of recent advances in modular UAVs, UAV swarming, and flight planning.The collector itself is a hydrophobic mesh. Materials including Tyvek, PTFE, nylon, and polypropylene monofilament fabricated via laser cutting, CNC knife, or 3D printing were characterized for droplet collection efficiency using a benchtop atomizer and particle counter. Because the meshes can be easily and inexpensively fabricated, a set can be pre-sterilized and brought to the field for 'hot swapping' to decrease cross-contamination between flight sessions or use as negative controls.An onboard sensor and logging system records the time and location of each sample; when combined with flight tracking data, the samples can be resolved into a 4D volumetric map of the fog bank. Collected samples can be returned to the lab for a variety of analyses. Based on a review of existing flight studies, we have identified ion chromatography, metagenomic sequencing, cell staining and quantification, and ATP quantification as high-priority assays for implementation. Support for specific toxicology assays, such as methyl-mercury quantification, is also planned.

Design↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-27509-DND

The information about composition of aerosols has a great importance for monitoring and understanding of climate and environment dynamics. Such information can be obtained using situ measurements or chemical transport models. However, in situ sampling has limited spatial and temporal coverage, while estimations have large uncertainties. The present work enables the monitoring of aerosol chemical species from space-borne observations, providing observationally-based results with spatial and temporal coverage. Following the ideas of Schuster et al.(2005, 2009, 2016), we retrieve chemical composition directly from satellite observations without intermediate retrieval of the refractive index (in contrast with Schuster's approach). This approach is expected to reduce the influence of modeling uncertainties, and to provide additional constraints in situations where remote sensing observations do not have enough spectral sensitivity to refractive index. One of principal difficulties is the identification of an adequate model for linking refractive index to chemical composition. Therefore, the initial effort of this work has focused on identifying an optimal physico-chemistry to refractive index conversion model. With that purpose, we first tested the retrieval approach using a simplified volume-weighting model and updated by the Maxwell Garnett mixing model. This concept was incorporated into the GRASP algorithm designed to retrieve an extended set of atmospheric parameters from remote sensing observations. Then a series of sensitivity tests using synthetic data of POLDER/PARASOL were conducted, and followed by inversion of real PARASOL observations over Africa. The sensitivity tests showed that these two models allow the retrieval to distinguish amongst the assumed chemical species. Results obtained from real PARASOL data demonstrated good agreement with the optical characteristics provided by AERONET. In addition, the obtained patterns of chemical component distribution agreed with known physical expectations. We also compared the chemical composition retrievals to GOCART model simulations and obtained good consistencies.

Lei Li↗

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

Eunsang Cho↗

ML/AI Applications to the Atmosphere Science Data and Simulations (Demonstration and Vision)

Artificial Intelligence has been recognized as one of the most powerful tools for scientific research. It has a wide range of applications in atmospheric science and plays a significant role in advancing our understanding of the Earth-Atmosphere system, as well as improving our ability to monitor, predict, and respond to atmospheric observations and simulations. Different AI architectures can help us handle various problems according to our research goals. In this presentation, we will introduce several use cases and models for applying computer vision to active remote sensing data from CALIOP, analyzing cloud dynamical relationships for climate model parameterizations, and building surrogate models for lidar simulations. The presentation will highlight the advantages that AI offers compared to traditional analytical methods. By assembling pieces of the multidimensional atmospheric science puzzle, we can integrate our knowledge from observations to simulations.

Shan Zeng↗

Carbon Dioxide Cycling And The Climate of Ancient Earth

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Carbon Dioxide Cycling and the Climate of Ancient Earth

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early Sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Zhang, Zhen↗

The Open-Ocean Sensible Heat Flux and Its Significance for Arctic Boundary Layer Mixing During Early Fall

The increasing ice-free area during late summer has transformed the Arctic to a climate system with more dynamic boundary layer (BL) clouds and seasonal sea ice growth. The open-ocean sensible heat flux, a crucial mechanism of excessive ocean heat loss to the atmosphere during the fall freeze season, is speculated to play an important role in the recently observed cloud cover increase and BL instability. However, lack of observations and understanding of the resilience of the proposed mechanisms, especially in relation to meteorological and interannual variability, has left a poorly constrained BL parameterization scheme in Arctic climate models. In this study, we use multiyear Japanese cruise-ship observations from RV Mirai over the open Arctic Ocean to characterize the surface sensible heat flux (SSHF) during early fall and investigate its contribution to BL turbulence. It is found that mixing by SSHF is favored during episodes of high surface wind speed and is also influenced by the prevailing cloud regime. The deepest BLs and maximum ocean-atmosphere temperature difference are observed during cold air advection (associated with the stratocumulus regime), yet, contrary to previous speculation, the efficiency of sensible heat exchange is low. On the other hand, the SSHF contributes significantly to BL mixing during the uplift (low pressure) followed by the highly stable (stratus) regime. Overall, it can explain 10 of the open ocean BL height variability, whereas cloud-driven (moisture and radiative) mechanisms appear to be the other dominant source of convective turbulence. Nevertheless, there is strong interannual variability in the relationship between the SSHF and the BL height which can be intensified by the changing occurrence of Arctic climate patterns, such as positive surface wind speed anomalies and more frequent conditions of uplift. This study highlights the need for comprehensive BL observations like the RV Mirai for better understanding and predicting the dynamic nature of the Arctic climate.

boundary layer↗

Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data

This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of where to sample to obtain the optimal erosion rate estimates using CRN techniques. Finally, we developed computational techniques to operate on DEMs to extract useful information that would enable quantification of climate-erosion interactions. In particular, we worked on rapid techniques to define catchments of any given range of sizes, to extract channel gradients, to combine precipitation information to calculate discharge, and to utilize various stream-power models to determine the erosional energy within any given catchment within a transect. We briefly describe results from Wheeler Ridge, the Kyrgyz Range, the Nepal Himalaya, and our numerical modeling.

Burbank, Douglas W.↗

Overview of Submesoscale-Climate Connections

In this talk, I will present a brief overview of some recent results and current research priorities regarding the significant participation of upper ocean / submesoscale processes in regional to global Earth system dynamics in a warming climate, such as ocean overturning, biogeochemistry, and heat and carbon uptake as well as atmospheric, coastal, and cryospheric dynamics. In addition to reviewing the evidence for these links by topic, I will highlight how advances in both understanding and prediction are derived from the integrated triad of process studies, modeling, and regional and global observing systems. Finally, I will discuss how triadic investments focused on these upper ocean processes might lead to better-informed decision-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Overview↗

Downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Bias-Corrected Lateral and Lower Boundary Conditions

A prequel study showed that dynamic downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) over Africa improved the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS AOGCM: ModelE) simulation of June–September rainfall patterns over Africa. The current study applies bias corrections to the lateral and lower boundary data from the AOGCM driving the RCM, based on the comparison of a 30-year simulation to the actual climate. The analysis examines the horizontal pattern of June–September total accumulated precipitation, the time versus latitude evolution of zonal mean West Africa (WA) precipitation (showing monsoon onset timing), and the latitude versus altitude cross-section of zonal winds over WA (showing the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet). The study shows that correcting for excessively warm AOGCM Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) improves the simulation of key features, whereas applying 30-year mean bias corrections to atmospheric variables driving the RCM at the lateral boundaries does not improve the RCM simulations. We suggest that AOGCM climate projections for Africa should benefit from downscaling by nesting an RCM that has demonstrated skill in simulating African climate, driven with bias-corrected SST.

West African monsoon↗

Characterizing spatiotemporal patterns of crop phenology across North America during 2000–2016 using satellite imagery and agricultural survey data

Crop phenology represents an integrative indicator of climate change and plays a vital role in terrestrial carbon dynamics and sustainable agricultural development. However, spatiotemporal variations of crop phenology remain unclear at large scales. This knowledge gap has hindered our ability to realistically quantify the biogeochemical dynamics in agroecosystems, predict future climate, and make informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study, we improved an EVI-curve-based approach and used it to detect spatiotemporal patterns in cropping intensity and five major phenological stages over North America during 2000–2016 using vegetation index in combination with agricultural survey data and other ancillary maps. Our predicted crop phenological stages showed strong linear relationships with the survey-based datasets, with R(exp 2), RMSEs, and MAEs in the ranges of 0.35 –0.99, three to ten days, and two to eight days, respectively. During the study period, the planting dates were advanced by 0.60 days/year (p < 0.01), and harvesting dates were delayed by 0.78 days/year (p < 0.01) over North America. A minimum temperature increase by 1 °C caused a 4.26-day planting advance (r = −0.50, p < 0. 01) or a 0.66-day harvest delay (r = 0.10, p < 0.01). While, a higher maximum temperature resulted in a planting advance by 4.48 days/°C (r = −0.62, p < 0.01) or a harvest advance by 2.22 days/°C (r = −0.40, p < 0.01). Our analysis illustrated evident spatiotemporal variations in crop phenology in response to climate change and management practices. The derived crop phenological datasets and cropping intensity maps can be used in regional climate assessments and in developing adaptation strategies.

North America↗