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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Extreme Case of Spectral Band Difference Correction Between the OSIRIS-REX-NAVCAM2 and DSCOVR-EPIC Imagers

Earth-viewed images acquired during a recent asteroid intercept mission present a unique opportunity for radiometric calibration of visible imagers onboard a space exploration probe. Measurements from the CERES consistent DSCOVR-EPIC imager act as a reference in providing spatially, temporally, and angularly matched radiance values for deriving OSIRIS-REx-NavCam sensor calibration gains. The calibration is accomplished using an optimized all-sky tropical ocean ray-matching technique, which employs complex pixel remapping, navigation correction, and angular geometry consideration. Of critical consideration in this specific inter-calibration event is the extreme difference in spectral response function (SRF) width between the NavCam and EPIC imagers, which could cause a rather large bias. The NASA-LaRC SCIAMACHY based online spectral band adjustment factor (SBAF) calculation tool provides an empirical solution to such potential spectral-difference-induced biases through a high spectral- resolution hyper spectral convolution approach. The adjustments produced from this tool can effectively reduce the calibration gain bias of NavCam2 by nearly 6%, thereby adjusting the NavCam2 sensor to within 3.2% of its prelaunch calibration. These results highlight the capability of the SBAF tool to account for exceptionally disparate SRFs.

Scarino, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of On-Orbit Performance of Rate Sensing Gyroscopes

This work presents results from the study of a large volume of spacecraft flight data pertaining to gyroscope performance. We have examined long and short term trends of gyroscope biase of first, an exact solution for the time-dependence of the attitude part of the state error covariance, averaged over the three spacecraft axes, is given. This solution is more complete than the usual cubic polynomial for the variance in that it includes coupling among the three gyroscope axes and includes an important term arising from the initial correlations. Second, several continuous 24-hour spans of gyroscope data are examined to verify the short-term statistical model. This analysis demonstrates that in-flight data can be used to determine the strength of the white noise driving the random walk of the gyroscope bias. This may be useful for postlaunch improvement to the noise model and for diagnosing the health of the gyroscope. Third, the long-term trends in gyroscope biases show a nearly linear systematic variation over time scales of years. This has been found on three different missions. While the random walk model is adequate as a basis for onboard Kalman filters or for state estimation using relatively short time spans, these trends indicate that some applications could benefit by accounting for the secular changes in the biases. One example is a new gyroscope calibration method that is under development that allows for multi-epoch bias solutions.

Sedlak, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optical selection bias and projection effects in stacked galaxy cluster weak lensing

ABSTRACT Cosmological constraints from current and upcoming galaxy cluster surveys are limited by the accuracy of cluster mass calibration. In particular, optically identified galaxy clusters are prone to selection effects that can bias the weak lensing mass calibration. We investigate the selection bias of the stacked cluster lensing signal associated with optically selected clusters, using clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm in the Buzzard simulations as a case study. We find that at a given cluster halo mass, the residuals of redMaPPer richness and weak lensing signal are positively correlated. As a result, for a given richness selection, the stacked lensing signal is biased high compared with what we would expect from the underlying halo mass probability distribution. The cluster lensing selection bias can thus lead to overestimated mean cluster mass and biased cosmology results. We show that the lensing selection bias exhibits a strong scale dependence and is approximately 20–60 per cent for ΔΣ at large scales. This selection bias largely originates from spurious member galaxies within ±20–60 $h^{-1}\, \rm Mpc$ along the line of sight, highlighting the importance of quantifying projection effects associated with the broad redshift distribution of member galaxies in photometric cluster surveys. While our results qualitatively agree with those in the literature, accurate quantitative modelling of the selection bias is needed to achieve the goals of cluster lensing cosmology and will require synthetic catalogues covering a wide range of galaxy–halo connection models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based Measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, During GTE PEM-West and MLOPEX 2

During October 19-20, 1991, one flight of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West A) mission was conducted near Hawaii as an intercomparison with ground-based measurements of the Mauna Loa Observatory Photochemistry Experiment (MLOPEX 2) and the NOAA Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL). Ozone, reactive nitrogen species, peroxides, hydrocarbons, and halogenated hydrocarbons were measured by investigators aboard the DC-8 aircraft and at the ground site. Lidar cross sections of ozone revealed a complex air mass structure near the island of Hawaii which was evidenced by large variation in some trace gas mixing ratios. This variation limited the time and spatial scales for direct measurement intercomparisons. Where differences occurred between measurements in the same air masses, the intercomparison suggested that biases for some trace gases was due to different calibration scales or, in some cases, instrumental or sampling biases. Relatively large uncertainties were associated with those trace gases present in the low parts per trillion by volume range. Trace gas correlations were used to expand the scope of the intercomparison to identify consistent trends between the different data sets.

Atlas, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Direct Te Metallicity Calibration of R23 in Strong Line Emitters

The gas metallicity of galaxies is often estimated using strong emission lines such as the optical lines of [O iii] and [O ii]. The most common measure is "R23," defined as ([O ii]λλ3726, 3729 + [O iii]λλ4959,5007)/Hβ. Most calibrations for these strong-line metallicity indicators are for continuum selected galaxies. We report a new empirical calibration of R23 for extreme emission-line galaxies using a large sample of about 800 star-forming green pea galaxies with reliable Te -based gas-phase metallicity measurements. This sample is assembled from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 13 with the equivalent width of the line [O iii]λ5007 > 300 Å or the equivalent width of the line Hβ > 100 Å in the redshift range 0.011 < z < 0.411. For galaxies with strong emission lines and large ionization parameter (which manifests as log [O iii]λλ4959,5007/[O ii]λλ3726,3729 ≥0.6), R23 monotonically increases with log(O/H) and the double-value degeneracy is broken. Our calibration provides metallicity estimates that are accurate to within ~0.14 dex in this regime. Many previous R23 calibrations are found to have bias and large scatter for extreme emission-line galaxies. We give formulae and plots to directly convert R23 and [O iii]λλ4959,5007/[O ii]λλ3726,3729 to log(O/H). Since green peas are best nearby analogs of high-redshift Lyα emitting galaxies, the new calibration offers a good way to estimate the metallicities of both extreme emission-line galaxies and high-redshift Lyα emitting galaxies. We also report on 15 galaxies with metallicities less than 1/12 solar, with the lowest metallicities being 12+log(O/H) = 7.25 and 7.26.

Jiang, Tianxing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improvement in the Characterization of MODIS Subframe Difference

MODIS is a key instrument of NASA's Earth Observing System. It has successfully operated for 16+ years on the Terra satellite and 14+ years on the Aqua satellite, respectively. MODIS has 36 spectral bands at three different nadir spatial resolutions, 250m (bands 1-2), 500m (bands 3-7), and 1km (bands 8-36). MODIS subframe measurement is designed for bands 1-7 to match their spatial resolution in the scan direction to that of the track direction. Within each 1 km frame, the MODIS 250 m resolution bands sample four subframes and the 500 m resolution bands sample two subframes. The detector gains are calibrated at a subframe level. Due to calibration differences between subframes, noticeable subframe striping is observed in the Level 1B (L1B) products, which exhibit a predominant radiance-level dependence. This paper presents results of subframe differences from various onboard and earth-view data sources (e.g. solar diffuser, electronic calibration, spectro-radiometric calibration assembly, Earth view, etc.). A subframe bias correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the subframe striping in MODIS L1B image. The algorithm has been tested using sample L1B images and the vertical striping at lower radiance value is mitigated after applying the corrections. The subframe bias correction approach will be considered for implementation in future versions of the calibration algorithm.

Li, Yonghong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-energy calibration of SuperCDMS HVeV cryogenic silicon calorimeters using Compton steps

Cryogenic calorimeters for low-mass dark matter searches have achieved sub-eV energy resolutions, driving advances in both low-energy calibration techniques and our understanding of detector physics. The energy deposition spectrum of gamma rays scattering off target materials exhibits step-like features, known as Compton steps, near the binding energies of atomic electrons. Here, we demonstrate a successful use of Compton steps for sub-keV calibration of cryogenic silicon calorimeters, utilizing four SuperCDMS High-Voltage eV-resolution detectors operated with 0 V bias across the crystal. This new calibration at 0 V is compared with the established high-voltage calibration using optical photons. The comparison indicates that the detector response at 0 V is about 30% weaker than expected, highlighting challenges in detector response modeling for low-mass dark matter searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2020

SNPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands On-Orbit Calibration Using the Moon

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite has been on orbit for more than eight years since its launch on October 28, 2011. The VIIRS has 22 spectral bands, among which 14 are reflective solar bands(RSBs) covering a spectral range from 0.41 to 2.25 m. The VIIRS RSBs are primarily calibrated on-orbit by an onboard solar diffuser (SD) panel and a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM). Besides the SD and SDSM calibration, the RSBs are scheduled to view the Moon approximately monthly through the instrument’s space view (SV). The lunar observations have also been used to calibrate the RSBs on-orbit since early mission. Due to the non uniformity of the SD’s degradation, the calibration coefficients that are derived from the SD/SDSM calibration have long-term biases, especially at short wavelengths. In addition, the SDSM has no capability to monitor the SD degradation beyond 0.935 m, resulting in long-term bias in the shortwave infrared bands, about 0.72% for band M8 (1.238 m). These biases induce significant errors and long-term drifts in the VIIRS sensor data records (SDR) and consequently in the environmental data records (EDR). Unlike the SD, the Moon is a known stable target and any temporal drifts observed while viewing the Moon can be attributed to the sensor’s degradation. Thus, the VIIRS lunar calibration is used to track the RSB on-orbit changes, especially to provide an accurate long-term baseline. Due to the non-uniformity of the lunar surface, the lunar irradiance, instead of the lunar radiance, is used to calibrate the RSBs. The lunar irradiance strongly depends on lunar view geometry and it is still a challenge to accurately characterize the geometric effects associated with the lunar measurements and any residual errors can induce seasonal oscillations in the derived calibration coefficients. The errors of the geometric dependence correction induce seasonal oscillations in the derived RSB lunar calibration coefficients. In this paper, the algorithms for the view geometric effect correction are significantly improved, resulting in a significant reduction in the seasonal oscillations observed in the calibration coefficient time-series. The lunar and SD/SDSM calibration results are properly incorporated to generate a set of hybrid calibration coefficients and implementation of these coefficients is shown to significantly improve the long-term stability of the VIIRS SDR. This is of fundamental importance in making accurate Earth observations from which reliable and high quality science products are generated. The consequent improvements in SNPP VIIRS RSB SDRs and EDRs are shown and discussed. The lunar calibration methodology can be directly applied to follow-on VIIRS instruments.

Junqiang Sun↗
NASA NTRS2007

GPS-Based Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination Using Accelerometer Data

Currently two gravity field satellite missions, CHAMP and GRACE, are equipped with high sensitivity electrostatic accelerometers, measuring the non-conservative forces acting on the spacecraft in three orthogonal directions. During the gravity field recovery these measurements help to separate gravitational and non-gravitational contributions in the observed orbit perturbations. For precise orbit determination purposes all these missions have a dual-frequency GPS receiver on board. The reduced dynamic technique combines the dense and accurate GPS observations with physical models of the forces acting on the spacecraft, complemented by empirical accelerations, which are stochastic parameters adjusted in the orbit determination process. When the spacecraft carries an accelerometer, these measured accelerations can be used to replace the models of the non-conservative forces, such as air drag and solar radiation pressure. This approach is implemented in a batch least-squares estimator of the GPS High Precision Orbit Determination Software Tools (GHOST), developed at DLR/GSOC and DEOS. It is extensively tested with data of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. As accelerometer observations typically can be affected by an unknown scale factor and bias in each measurement direction, they require calibration during processing. Therefore the estimated state vector is augmented with six parameters: a scale and bias factor for the three axes. In order to converge efficiently to a good solution, reasonable a priori values for the bias factor are necessary. These are calculated by combining the mean value of the accelerometer observations with the mean value of the non-conservative force models and empirical accelerations, estimated when using these models. When replacing the non-conservative force models with accelerometer observations and still estimating empirical accelerations, a good orbit precision is achieved. 100 days of GRACE B data processing results in a mean orbit fit of a few centimeters with respect to high-quality JPL reference orbits. This shows a slightly better consistency compared to the case when using force models. A purely dynamic orbit, without estimating empirical accelerations thus only adjusting six state parameters and the bias and scale factors, gives an orbit fit for the GRACE B test case below the decimeter level. The in orbit calibrated accelerometer observations can be used to validate the modelled accelerations and estimated empirical accelerations computed with the GHOST tools. In along track direction they show the best resemblance, with a mean correlation coefficient of 93% for the same period. In radial and normal direction the correlation is smaller. During days of high solar activity the benefit of using accelerometer observations is clearly visible. The observations during these days show fluctuations which the modelled and empirical accelerations can not follow.

VanHelleputte, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1976

Development of dynamic calibration methods for POGO pressure transducers

Two dynamic pressure sources are described for the calibration of pogo pressure transducers used to measure oscillatory pressures generated in the propulsion system of the space shuttle. Rotation of a mercury-filled tube in a vertical plane at frequencies below 5 Hz generates sinusoidal pressures up to 48 kPa, peak-to-peak; vibrating the same mercury-filled tube sinusoidally in the vertical plane extends the frequency response from 5 Hz to 100 Hz at pressures up to 140 kPa, peak-to-peak. The sinusoidal pressure fluctuations can be generated by both methods in the presence of high pressures (bias) up to 55 MPa. Calibration procedures are given in detail for the use of both sources. The dynamic performance of selected transducers was evaluated using these procedures; the results of these calibrations are presented. Calibrations made with the two sources near 5 Hz agree to within 3% of each other.

Hilten, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Assessing High Resolution Thermal Monitoring of Complex Intertidal Environments From Space: the Case of ECOSTRESS at Rias Baixas, NW Iberia

Currently, thermal sensors on satellites and other orbital platforms with high spatial resolution designed to monitor the oceans are often insufficient to assess the surface temperature of small bodies of water or within the coastal boundary layer. As the accuracy and sensitivity of remote sensing satellites improve, the demand for more accurate and up-to-date basic data sets for calibration increases. The quality of the thermal data collected by ECOSTRESS on the International Space Station allows the characterization of thermal stress levels in coastal ecosystems with a high spatial resolution of 70 m and a return time from hours to 5 days. This study focused on the calibration of ECOSTRESS estimates with in situ surface temperature data from sensors installed at 3 cm depth in the sediment on the intertidal muddy sandflats of three of the Rías Baixas in Galicia, NW Iberian Peninsula, from 2019 to 2021. A final number of 45 ECOSTRESS temperature images were analyzed. From these, 20% contained substantial georeferencing errors which had to be corrected manually with GIS software tools. We applied the Fourier's law of Heat Conduction to derive surface estimates from loggers sub-surface measurements that could be directly compared with ECOSTRESS data. Overall, a good calibration which explained more than 80% of ECOSTRESS temperature estimates for the whole dataset was obtained, but with an intrinsic cold bias around 1.39 °C. When temperatures at a depth of 3 cm were used, the linear fit became worse and the negative bias increased to 1.49 °C. Closer inspection revealed that night measurements were responsible for this larger deviation, as ECOSTRESS estimates became much colder compared to within sediment measurements because of the combined effect of the instrument intrinsic bias and nocturnal surface cooling. The best calibration was obtained when surface estimates were calculated just for the nighttime, as the cold bias decreased to 0.93 °C. More importantly, during hot daytime conditions in emersion above 20 °C, ECOSTRESS data matched surface temperature estimates, probably because of a better performance of ECOSTRESS algorithm at dry surfaces with lower emissivity. Thus, during the most ecologically relevant periods when high temperatures could drive thermal stress in many commercially-important bivalve species, ECOSTRESS provides accurate surface estimates that can be used to derive sub surface temperatures at the depths at which the different burrowing organisms live. We thus conclude that this instrument constitutes an important global tool to examine thermal stress at an unprecedented spatial scale for complex sea-land boundary systems.

ECOSTRESS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model – Application to realistic N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Photometric galaxy surveys constitute a powerful cosmological probe but rely on the accurate characterization of their redshift distributions using only broad-band imaging, and can be very sensitive to incomplete or biased priors used for redshift calibration. A hierarchical Bayesian model has recently been developed to estimate those from the robust combination of prior information, photometry of single galaxies, and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population. In this work, we extend the method so that it can be applied to real data, developing some necessary new extensions to it, especially in the treatment of galaxy clustering information, and we test it on realistic simulations. After marginalizing over the mapping between the clustering estimator and the actual density distribution of the sample galaxies, and using prior information from a small patch of the survey, we find the incorporation of clustering information with photo-z’s tightens the redshift posteriors and overcomes biases in the prior that mimic those happening in spectroscopic samples. The method presented here uses all the information at hand to reduce prior biases and incompleteness. Even in cases where we artificially bias the spectroscopic sample to induce a shift in mean redshift of $\Delta \bar{z} \approx 0.05,$ the final biases in the posterior are $\Delta \bar{z} \lesssim 0.003.$ This robustness to flaws in the redshift prior or training samples would constitute a milestone for the control of redshift systematic uncertainties in future weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simple Parametric Model for Intensity Calibration of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer Data

Accurate intensity calibration of a linear Fourier-transform spectrometer typically requires the unknown science target and the two calibration targets to be acquired under identical conditions. We present a simple model suitable for vector calibration that enables accurate calibration via adjustments of measured spectral amplitudes and phases when these three targets are recorded at different detector or optics temperatures. Our model makes calibration more accurate both by minimizing biases due to changing instrument temperatures that are always present at some level and by decreasing estimate variance through incorporating larger averages of science and calibration interferogram scans.

Brasunas, J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor and Cirrus Clouds during WVIOP2000 and AFWEX

The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was deployed to the Southern Great Plains CART site from September - December, 2000 and participated in two field campaigns devoted to comparisons of various water vapor measurement technologies and calibrations. These campaigns were the Water Vapor Intensive Operations Period 2000 (WVIOP2000) and the ARM FIRE Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX). WVIOP2000 was devoted to validating water vapor measurements in the lower atmosphere while AFWEX had similar goals but for measurements in the upper troposphere. The SRL was significantly upgraded both optically and electronically prior to these field campaigns. These upgrades enabled the SRL to demonstrate the highest resolution lidar measurements of water vapor ever acquired during the nighttime and the highest S/N Raman lidar measurements of water vapor in the daytime; more than a factor of 2 increase in S/N versus the DOE CARL Raman Lidar. Examples of these new measurement capabilities along with comparisons of SRL and CARL, LASE, MPI-DIAL, in-situ sensors, radiosonde, and others will be presented. The profile comparisons of the SRL and CARL have revealed what appears to be an overlap correction or countrate correction problem in CARL. This may be involved in an overall dry bias in the precipitable water calibration of CARL with respect to the MWR of approx. 4%. Preliminary analysis indicates that the application of a temperature dependent correction to the narrowband Raman lidar measurements of water vapor improves the lidar/Vaisala radiosonde comparisons of upper tropospheric water vapor. Other results including the comparison of the first-ever simultaneous measurements from four water vapor lidar systems, a bore-wave event captured at high resolution by the SRL and cirrus cloud optical depth studies using the SRL and CARL will be presented at the meeting.

Whiteman, D. N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A non-cooperative meta-modeling game for automated third-party calibrating, validating and falsifying constitutive laws with parallelized adversarial attacks

The evaluation of constitutive models, especially for high-risk and high-regret engineering applications, requires efficient and rigorous third-party calibration, validation and falsification. While there are numerous efforts to develop paradigms and standard procedures to validate models, difficulties may arise due to the sequential, manual, and often biased nature of the commonly adopted calibration and validation processes, thus slowing down data collections, hampering the progress towards discovering new physics, increasing expenses and possibly leading to misinterpretations of the credibility and application ranges of proposed models. This work attempts to introduce concepts from game theory and machine learning techniques to overcome many of these existing difficulties. Here, we introduce an automated meta-modeling game where two competing AI agents systematically generate experimental data to calibrate a given constitutive model and to explore its weakness such that the experiment design and model robustness can be improved through competitions. The two agents automatically search for the Nash equilibrium of the meta-modeling game in an adversarial reinforcement learning framework without human intervention. In particular, a protagonist agent seeks to find the more effective ways to generate data for model calibrations, while an adversary agent tries to find the most devastating test scenarios that expose the weaknesses of the constitutive model calibrated by the protagonist. By capturing all possible design options of the laboratory experiments into a single decision tree, we recast the design of experiments as a game of combinatorial moves that can be resolved through deep reinforcement learning by the two competing players. Our adversarial framework emulates idealized scientific collaborations and competitions among researchers to achieve a better understanding of the application range of the learned material laws and prevent misinterpretations caused by conventional AI-based third-party validation. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the wide applicability of the proposed meta-modeling game with adversarial attacks on both human-crafted constitutive models and machine learning models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

NEONiso R Package, versions greater than 0.5.2

Carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems and their response to environmental change are a major source of uncertainty in the modern carbon cycle. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) presents the opportunity to merge eddy covariance (EC)-derived fluxes with CO2 isotope ratio measurements to gain insights into carbon cycle processes. Collected continuously and consistently across >40 sites, NEON EC and isotope data facilitate novel integrative analyses. However, currently provisioned atmospheric isotope data are uncalibrated, greatly limiting ability to perform cross-site analyses. Here, we present two approaches to calibrating NEON CO2 isotope ratios, along with an R package to calibrate NEON data. We find that calibrating CO2 isotopologues independently yields a lower d13C bias (<0.05‰) and higher precision (<0.40‰) than directly correcting d13C with linear regression (bias: <0.11‰, precision: 0.42‰), but with slightly higher error and lower precision in calibrated CO2 mole fraction. The magnitude of the corrections to d13C and CO2 mole fractions vary substantially by site, underscoring the need for users to apply a consistent calibration framework to data in the NEON archive. Post-calibration data sets show that site mean annual d13C correlates negatively with precipitation, temperature, and aridity, but positively with elevation. Forested and agricultural ecosystems exhibit larger gradients in CO2 and d13C than other sites, particularly during the summer and at night. The overview and analysis tools developed here will facilitate cross-site analysis using NEON data, provide a model for other continental-scale observational networks, and enable new advances leveraging the isotope ratios of specific carbon fluxes.

Fiorella, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved temperature control for measuring the humidity dependence of aerosol optical properties

Aerosols impact climate and cloud formation by their ability to take up water, which leads to changes in their optical properties. To better characterize the interactions of aerosol with water vapor, a humidification section has been added to the Cavity Attenuation Phase-shift Spectrometry (CAPS) instrument. The CAPS is a diode based method that provides simultaneous measurements of both aerosol total optical extinction and scattering in real-time. We are improving the humidity controlled sample line with new temperature controls. The current system suffers from particlelosses and poorly controlled humidity profiles, both of which were corrected for in the systems redesign. This improved wet-CAPS system has been integrated with a dry-CAPS to simultaneously measure the wet and dry aerosol optical properties. The two CAPS monitors were operated in a dry collection mode to ensure there were no biases between the instruments. Initial calibrations and data were collected to test the functionality of the dual CAPS system (wet + dry). The new two channel CAPS system improves our ability to measure the effects of humidity on aerosol optical properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗