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Results for “calibration and fitting methods”

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equation of state of boron carbide B 4 ⁢C

We present the results of recent experiments conducted on the Sandia Z machine and a new tabular equation of state for B 4 ⁢C. The equation of state was calibrated to a combination of density functional calculations reported here and fits to preexisting data. It was constructed partly to recover the effects of a shock-driven, polymorphic phase transition of unknown character beginning at particle velocities of just under 3 km/s (shock pressures of 95 GPa). Some of the Z experiments included sound speeds determined by the overtaking rarefaction method, from which we calculate the Grüneisen parameter and compare with previous experiments conducted at the OMEGA laser [Fratanduono et al ., Phys. Rev. B 94 , 184107 (2016)], our own first principles calculations, and another recent tabular equation of state [Zhang et al ., Phys. Rev. E 102 , 053203 (2020)]. We also compare our results with previous static compression, thermophysical, and melt studies, finding mixed consistency. We predict the onset and completion of shock melting at 225 and 265 GPa, respectively, and predict a melt curve that is largely flat to pressures of several hundred GPa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting variations of the least principal stress with depth: Application to unconventional oil and gas reservoirs using a log-based viscoelastic stress relaxation model

Knowledge of layer-to-layer variations of the least principal stress, S hmin , with depth is essential for optimization of multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in unconventional reservoirs. Utilizing a geomechanical model based on viscoelastic stress relaxation in relatively clay rich rocks, we present a new method for predicting continuous S hmin variations with depth. The method utilizes geophysical log data and S hmin measurements from routine diagnostic fracture injection tests (DFITs) at several depths for calibration. We consider a case study in the Wolfcamp formation in the Midland Basin, where both geophysical logs and values of S hmin from DFITs are available. We compute a continuous stress profile as a function of the well logs that fits all of the DFITs well. We utilized several machine learning technologies, such as bootstrap aggregation (or bagging), to improve the generalization of the model and demonstrate that the excellent fit between predicted and observed stress values is not the result of over-fitting the calibration points. The model is then validated by accurately predicting hold-out stress measurements from four wells within the study area and, without recalibration, accurately predicting stress as a function of depth in an offset pad about 6 miles away.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

A new calibration of the extragalactic distance scale using Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars

Visual absolute magnitudes of classical Cepheids, metal-poor RR Lyrae stars and short-period type II Cepheids have been determined with very high precision by combining a large number of old and new astrophysical data. Five independent methods (four observational and one theoretical) have been successfully used: (1) secular and statistical parallaxes; (2) moving-group parallaxes; (3) cluster main-sequence fitting; (4) the Baade-Wesselink method and its modifications; and (5) light-curve and velocity-curve fitting (the theoretical method). With these five adopted methods, the zero point of the galactic and extragalactic distance scale can be set on a relatively firm and self-consistent basis. Classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars now provide essentially identical distances to nearby galaxies: the distance modulus to the Large Magellanic Cloud is 18.5 and to the Small Magellanic Cloud is 18.8, both with an uncertainty of 0.1. The distance to the center of our Galaxy is 8.6 plus or minus 0.5 kiloparsecs. The major uncertainty in these values lies in the correction for interstellar extinction.

Stothers, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A reexamination of solar upper photosphere models, the calcium abundance, and empirical damping parameters

A general iterative method is described for constructing thermal models of the solar photosphere consistent with observed strong and weak lines of Ca I and Ca II. Calibrations of the solar calcium abundance and the van der Waals parameter for important Ca I and Ca II lines are obtained using plane-parallel largely LTE model atmospheres, and these thermal models are modified for better fits to the measured Ca II H and K inner wing shapes. Possible sources of error in this semiempirical approach are evaluated. The derived hydrogen van der Waals broadening is compared with theoretical estimates of that broadening as well as with experimental measurements of the helium broadening

Ayres, T. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effect of helium diffusion on the ages of globular clusters

Evolutionary tracks for halo stars were calculated, and isochrones which include the effects of microscopic diffusion of helium were constructed. The isochrones were fitted to a metal poor (M92) and a moderately metal rich (NGC 288) globular cluster using an updated version of the Revised Yale Isochrone color calibration. Ages of the two clusters were also determined using the difference between the turnoff magnitude and horizontal branch magnitude, and the difference in color between the main-sequence turnoff and lower giant branch. Considering all methods and constraints, diffusion is argued to reduce the derived ages of M92 and NGC 288 by 0.5-1 Gyr. The maximum age reduction that diffusion could cause is 3 Gyr. Age estimates including diffusion indicate that M92 is 16 +/- 2 Gyr old, and that M92 is about 3 Gyr older than NGC 288, assuming that the clusters have the same O/Fe of +0.4.

Chaboyer, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1993

Focus history of the Hubble Space Telescope: Launch to May 1993

Since the launch of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) the secondary mirror of the telescope has been moved several times in order to collimate the telescope and also to define a position of best focus. In addition to these moves the focus position changes over time because of water desorption by the graphite epoxy in the metering truss. The authors report here the focus history of the telescope based on a knowledge of the mirror moves made and an analysis of desorption monitoring data obtained by the Faint Object Camera (FOC) in the F/96 mode and of the routine calibration data obtained by the Wide Field and Planetary Cameras. Focus values are extracted using two different methods. In the first method the distance between the center of the point spread function (PSF) and the shadows of the pads supporting the HST primary mirror are related to the focus error. In the second method an analytical formula for the PSF with variable aberration coefficients is fitted to the data. Focus positions derived from the two methods show good agreement. The data show that a desorption of about 83 microns has taken place since Aug. 16, 1990. The desorption has clearly not leveled off as expected from the trend of the earlier data. Long term variations of the secondary mirror position of approximately 3-15 microns from the 'best' focus position have been observed. Variations of the order of 2-5 microns over an orbital period have also been noted. Focus changes resulting from secondary mirror movements greater than approximately 5 microns changes the point spread function significantly and makes deconvolution and quantitative measurements difficult.

Hasan, H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through two methods, thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine the thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta chamber detector that outputs reactivity levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called lobe power calculation and indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. This is crucial for maintaining safety limits. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have assisted system engineers at INL with the objective to reach a more dynamic system. In return the system demonstrates an increase in the accuracy of power reading while maintaining safety margins. The new proposed coefficient and multiple method implements a cycle specific, and a physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focuses on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the RDAS weighting factors. Results show that the Physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. This proved true for both constrained and unconstrained testing. This is most likely due to the physics data fitting approach that resulted in favorable coefficients and multipliers for 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Step-Strain Relaxation and Cyclic Deformations of Elastomers

Data for step-strain relaxation and cyclic compressive deformations of highly viscous short elastomer cylinders are modeled using a large strain rubber viscoelastic constitutive theory with a rate-independent friction stress term added. In the tests, both small and large amplitude cyclic compressive strains, in the range of 1% to 10%, were superimposed on steady state compressed strains, in the range of 5% to 20%, for frequencies of 1 and 10 Hz. The elastomer cylinders were conditioned prior to each test to soften them. The constants in the viscoclastic-friction constitutive theory are determined by employing a nonlinear least-squares method to fit the analytical stresses for a Maxwell model, which includes friction, to measured relaxation stresses obtained from a 20% step-strain compression test. The simulation of the relaxation data with the nonlinear model is successful at compressive strains of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%. Simulations of hysteresis stresses for enforced cyclic compressive strains of 20% +/- 5% are made with the model calibrated by the relaxation data. The predicted hysteresis stresses are lower than the measured stresses.

Johnson, A.R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Beam Characterization for the Small Aperture Telescopes

Abstract We use time-domain simulations of Jupiter observations to test and develop a beam reconstruction pipeline for the Simons Observatory Small Aperture Telescopes. The method relies on a mapmaker that estimates and subtracts correlated atmospheric noise and a beam fitting code designed to compensate for the bias caused by the mapmaker. We test our reconstruction performance for four different frequency bands against various algorithmic parameters, atmospheric conditions, and input beams. We additionally show the reconstruction quality as a function of the number of available observations and investigate how different calibration strategies affect the beam uncertainty. For all of the cases considered, we find good agreement between the fitted results and the input beam model within an ∼1.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 30–700 and an ∼0.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 50–200. We conclude by using a harmonic-domain component separation algorithm to verify that the beam reconstruction errors and biases observed in our analysis do not significantly bias the Simons Observatory r -measurement

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Simons Observatory: Beam Characterization for the Small Aperture Telescopes

We use time-domain simulations of Jupiter observations to test and develop a beam reconstruction pipeline for the Simons Observatory Small Aperture Telescopes. The method relies on a mapmaker that estimates and subtracts correlated atmospheric noise and a beam fitting code designed to compensate for the bias caused by the mapmaker. We test our reconstruction performance for four different frequency bands against various algorithmic parameters, atmospheric conditions, and input beams. We additionally show the reconstruction quality as a function of the number of available observations and investigate how different calibration strategies affect the beam uncertainty. For all of the cases considered, we find good agreement between the fitted results and the input beam model within an ∼1.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 30–700 and an ∼0.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 50–200. We conclude by using a harmonic-domain component separation algorithm to verify that the beam reconstruction errors and biases observed in our analysis do not significantly bias the Simons Observatory r-measurement.

Cosmic microwave background radiation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Alternative Method of On-Orbit Response-Versus-Scan-Angle Characterization for MODIS Reflective Solar Bands

The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) has 20 reflective solar bands (RSB), covering a spectral range from 0.41 to 2.2 microns, which are calibrated on-orbit using its onboard calibrators, which include a solar diffuser, a solar diffuser stability monitor, and a spectroradiometric calibration assembly. A space view (SV) port is used to provide a background reference and also facilitates near-monthly lunar observations through a spacecraft roll. In every scan, the Earth's surface, SV, and onboard calibrators are viewed via a two-sided scan mirror, the reflectance of which depends on the angle of incidence (AOI) as well as the wavelength of the incident light. Response-versus-scan-angle (RVS) is defined as a dependence function of the scan mirror's reflectance over AOI. An initial RVS for each RSB was measured prelaunch for both Terra and Aqua MODIS. Algorithms have been developed to track the on-orbit RVS variation using the measurements from the onboard calibrators, supplemented with the earth view (EV) trends from pseudoinvariant desert targets obtained at different AOI. Since the mission beginning, the MODIS characterization support team (MCST) has dedicated efforts in evaluating approaches of characterizing the on-orbit RVS. A majority of the approaches focused on fitting the data at each AOI over time and then deriving the relative change at different AOI. The current version of the on-orbit RVS algorithm, as implemented in the collection 6 (C6) level-1B (L1B), is also based on the above rationale. It utilizes the EV response trends from the pseudoinvariant Libyan desert targets to supplement the gain derived from the onboard calibrators. The primary limitation of this approach is the assumption of the temporal stability of these desert sites. Consequently, MCST developed an approach that derives the on-orbit RVS change using measurements from a single desert site, combined with the on-orbit lunar measurements. In addition, the EV and onboard responses are fit first as a function of AOI before fitting temporally in order to eliminate the dependence on the stability of the desert site. Comprehensive comparisons are performed with current C6 RVS results for both Terra and Aqua MODIS. Results demonstrate that this alternative method provides a supplemental means to monitor the on-orbit RVS for MODIS RSB.

solar bands↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-sensitive radon assay using an electrostatic chamber in a recirculating system

Rare event searches such as neutrinoless double beta decay and Weakly Interacting Massive Particle detection require ultra-low background detectors. Radon contamination is a significant challenge for these experiments, which employ highly sensitive radon assay techniques to identify and select low-emission materials. This work presents the development of ultra-sensitive electrostatic chamber (ESC) instruments designed to measure radon emanation in a recirculating gas loop, for future lower background experiments. Unlike traditional methods that separate emanation and detection steps, this system allows continuous radon transport and detection. This is made possible with a custom-built recirculation pump. A Python-based analysis framework, PyDAn, was developed to process and fit time-dependent radon decay data. Radon emanation rates are given for various materials measured with this instrument. A radon source of known activity provides an absolute calibration, enabling statistically-limited minimal detectable activities of 20 µBq. These devices are powerful tools for screening materials in the development of low-background particle physics experiments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-sensitive radon assay using an electrostatic chamber in a recirculating system

Rare event searches such as neutrinoless double beta decay and Weakly Interacting Massive Particle detection require ultra-low background detectors. Radon contamination is a significant challenge for these experiments, which employ highly sensitive radon assay techniques to identify and select low-emission materials. This work presents the development of ultra-sensitive electrostatic chamber (ESC) instruments designed to measure radon emanation in a recirculating gas loop, for future lower background experiments. Unlike traditional methods that separate emanation and detection steps, this system allows continuous radon transport and detection. This is made possible with a custom-built recirculation pump. A Python-based analysis framework, PyDAn, was developed to process and fit time-dependent radon decay data. Radon emanation rates are given for various materials measured with this instrument. A radon source of known activity provides an absolute calibration, enabling statistically-limited minimal detectable activities of 20 uBq. These devices are powerful tools for screening materials in the development of low-background particle physics experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2025

Current interrupt method for calculating the electrochemical impedance in a solid oxide electrolysis stack

Here, in this work the time domain response of Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells (SOEC) to a current interruption was transformed into the frequency domain using a carrier function Laplace transform, which is fit to the experimental data using a MATLAB Complex Nonlinear Least Squares (CNLS) solver. The hardware implementation, consisting principally of a high-speed switch and a fast-logging Analog to Digital Converter (ADC), was assembled and tested using a calibration module to assess the accuracy, repeatability, and speed of acquisition of the prototype device as compared against a calibrated commercial impedance spectrometer. Additionally, the current interrupt device and commercial FRA were used to acquire the impedance spectra of a four cell SOEC stack with a large, 300 cm 2 , active cell area.

SOEC↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated approach to derive relative permeability from capillary pressure

Surface tension affects all aspects of fluid flow in porous media. Through measurements of surface tension interaction under multiphase conditions, a relative permeability curve can be determined. Relative permeability is a numerical description of the interaction between two or more fluids and the porous media. It is a critical parameter for various tools that characterize subsurface multiphase flow systems, such as numerical simulation for carbon sequestration, oil and gas development, and groundwater contamination remediation. Therefore, it is critical to get a good statistical distribution of relative permeability in the porous media under study. Empirical formula for determining relative permeability from capillary pressure are already well established but do not provide the needed flexibility that is required to match laboratory-derived relative permeability curves. By expanding the existing methods for calculating relative permeability from capillary pressure data, it is possible to create both two and three-phase relative permeability curves. Mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP) data from the Morrow 'B' Sandstone coupled with interfacial tension and contact angle measurements were used to create a suite of relative permeability curves. Furthermore, these curves were then calibrated to a small sample of existing laboratory curves to elucidate common fitting parameters for the formation that were then used to create relative permeability curves from MICP data that does not have an associated laboratory-measured relative permeability curve.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗