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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn-of-the-Century Drought in the Western United States

Here, we perform the first uncertainty quantification analysis of the turn-of-the-century drought in the western United States using a large perturbed-parameter ensemble of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4). We develop several metrics to characterize the aridity bias, spatial extent, and tropical forcing of the drought and use statistical models to ascertain that the modeled drought was mainly sensitive to CAM4 parameters related to deep convection and clouds. Deep convection parameters account for over half the variance across the drought metrics. We employ observed estimates of these drought metrics to infer probability distributions of the model parameters that lead to a better agreement with observations, thereby providing guidance on how to improve the simulation of drought in CAM4. We find that in some cases, the suggested parameter values that improve the simulation of one drought characteristic would degrade the simulation of another, suggesting that there is a complex relationship between the model parameters and drought in the western United States. We also demonstrate reductions in the uncertainty of the drought metrics of up to 30% by constraining with observations of all metrics. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that improvements to the simulation of the spatial extent of the turn-of-the-century drought also lead to improvements in the spatial extent of the Australian Millennium drought, suggesting that physics of drought as encoded by the model parameters may be generalizable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Regional Snow Parameters Estimation for Large-Domain Hydrological Applications in the Western United States

In snow-dominated regions, a critical source of uncertainty in hydrologic prediction and forecasting is the magnitude and distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). With ensemble simulations, we demonstrate that SWE variability across the mountain ranges of the western United States (represented by 246 Snow Telemetry stations) can largely be captured at the daily time scale by a simple mass and energy-balance snow model with four physically reasonable parameters—three snow albedo parameters and one snow temperature threshold for precipitation partitioning. The model skill is lower in the maritime Pacific Northwest where SWE variability is more sensitive to errors associated with simulated energy balance (e.g., downward radiation fluxes) and the temperature-only precipitation partitioning approach. Poor model skill in high-altitude, windy locations in the Northern Rockies can be attributed to precipitation undercatch and underrepresented wind processes. For the purpose of large-domain hydrologic applications, regional snow parameters were developed for eight ecoregions characterized by a distinct hydroclimatic regime across the western United States. Results indicate that regionally coherent snow parameterizations are able to capture daily variations in SWE at most Snow Telemetry stations, suggesting that areas with a similar hydroclimate share a similar snow regime. While the three albedo parameters show limited spatial variability across all regions, the regional snow temperature threshold (Ts) shows marked spatial variation correlated with relative humidity; the Ts values increase from 0.2 °C in the higher-humidity Pacific Northwest to 4.0 °C in the colder, lower-humidity Rocky Mountains.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Are Greenhouse Gases Changing ENSO Precursors in the Western North Pacific?

Using multiple observational and modeling datasets, we document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) one year later. The increased WNP-ENSO association emerged in the mid 20th century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as ~0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) replicate the WNP-ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHG) are largely responsible for the observed increase. We speculate that shifts in the location and amplitudes of positive SST trends in the subtropical-tropical western Pacific impacts the low-level circulation so that WNP variability is increasingly influencing the development of ENSO one year later. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship between the WNP and ENSO provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change can potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.

changing↗
DOE OSTI2013

Comparison of Moist Static Energy and Budget between the GCM-Simulated Madden–Julian Oscillation and Observations over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific

The moist static energy (MSE) anomalies and MSE budget associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulated in the Iowa State University General Circulation Model (ISUGCM) over the Indian and Pacific Oceans are compared with observations. Different phase relationships between MJO 850-hPa zonal wind, precipitation, and surface latent heat flux are simulated over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, which are greatly influenced by the convection closure, trigger conditions, and convective momentum transport (CMT). The moist static energy builds up from the lower troposphere 15–20 days before the peak of MJO precipitation, and reaches the maximum in the middle troposphere (500–600 hPa) near the peak of MJO precipitation. The gradual lower-tropospheric heating and moistening and the upward transport of moist static energy are important aspects of MJO events, which are documented in observational studies but poorly simulated in most GCMs. The trigger conditions for deep convection, obtained from the year-long cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations, contribute to the striking difference between ISUGCM simulations with the original and modified convection schemes and play the major role in the improved MJO simulation in ISUGCM. Additionally, the budget analysis with the ISUGCM simulations shows the increase in MJO MSE is in phase with the horizontal advection of MSE over the western Pacific, while out of phase with the horizontal advection of MSE over the Indian Ocean. However, the NCEP analysis shows that the tendency of MJO MSE is in phase with the horizontal advection of MSE over both oceans.

GCM-simulated↗
DOE OSTI2012

Western Region Renewable Energy Markets: Implications for the Bureau of Land Management

The purpose of this analysis is to provide the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) with an overview of renewable energy (RE) generation markets, transmission planning efforts, and the ongoing role of the BLM RE projects in the electricity markets of the 11 states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,and Wyoming) that comprise the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Region. This analysis focuses on the status of, and projections for, likely development of non-hydroelectric renewable electricity from solar (including photovoltaic [PV] and concentrating solar power [CSP]), wind, biomass and geothermal resources in these states. Absent new policy drivers and without the extension ofthe DOE loan guarantee program and Treasury's 1603 program, state RPS requirements are likely to remain a primary driver for new RE deployment in the western United States. Assuming no additional policy incentives are implemented, projected RE demand for the WECC states by 2020 is 134,000 GWh. Installed capacity to meet that demand will need to be within the range of 28,000-46,000 MW.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2012

Analysis of Cycling Costs in Western Wind and Solar Integration Study

The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS) examined the impact of up to 30% penetration of variable renewable generation on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council system. Although start-up costs and higher operating costs because of part-load operation of thermal generators were included in the analysis, further investigation of additional costs associated with thermal unitcycling was deemed worthwhile. These additional cycling costs can be attributed to increases in capital as well as operations and maintenance costs because of wear and tear associated with increased unit cycling. This analysis examines the additional cycling costs of the thermal fleet by leveraging the results of WWSIS Phase 1 study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Study of Multi-Scale Cloud Processes Over the Tropical Western Pacific Using Cloud-Resolving Models Constrained by Satellite Data

Clouds in the tropical western Pacific are an integral part of the large scale environment. An improved understanding of the multi-scale structure of clouds and their interactions with the environment is critical to the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) program for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations, understanding the consequences of model biases, and providing a context for interpreting the observational data collected over the ARM Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. Three-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs) are powerful tools for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations. However, a significant challenge in using CRMs in the TWP is that the region lacks conventional data, so large uncertainty exists in defining the large-scale environment for clouds. This project links several aspects of the ARM program, from measurements to providing improved analyses, and from cloud-resolving modeling to climate-scale modeling and parameterization development, with the overall objective to improve the representations of clouds in climate models and to simulate and quantify resolved cloud effects on the large-scale environment. Our objectives will be achieved through a series of tasks focusing on the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ARM data. Our approach includes: - Perform assimilation of COSMIC GPS radio occultation and other satellites products using the WRF Ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation system to represent the tropical large-scale environment at 36 km grid resolution. This high-resolution analysis can be used by the community to derive forcing products for single-column models or cloud-resolving models. - Perform cloud-resolving simulations using WRF and its nesting capabilities, driven by the improved regional analysis and evaluate the simulations against ARM datasets such as from TWP-ICE to optimize the microphysics parameters for this region. A cirrus study (Mace and co-authors) already exists for TWP-ICE using satellite and ground-based observations. - Perform numerical experiments using WRF to investigate how convection over tropical islands in the Maritime Continent interacts with large-scale circulation and affects convection in nearby regions. - Evaluate and apply WRF as a testbed for GCM cloud parameterizations, utilizing the ability of WRF to run on multiple scales (from cloud resolving to global) to isolate resolution and physics issues from dynamical and model framework issues. Key products will be disseminated to the ARM and larger community through distribution of data archives, including model outputs from the data assimilation products and cloud resolving simulations, and publications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Completion Report for Well ER-20-12: Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Well ER-20-12 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada National Security Administration Nevada Field Office in support of the Underground Test Area Activity. The well was drilled from October 2015 to January 2016 as an addition to the Central and Western Pahute Mesa corrective action units 101 and 102 the Phase II drilling program. Well ER-20-12 was identified based on recommendations of the Pahute Mesa Guidance Team as a result of anomalous tritium detections in groundwater samples collected from Well PM-3 in 2011 and 2013. The primary purpose of the well was to provide information on the hydrogeology in the area downgradient of select underground tests on Western Pahute Mesa and define hydraulic properties in the saturated Tertiary volcanic rocks. The main 46.99-centimeter (cm) (18.5-inch [in.]) borehole was drilled to a depth of 765.14 meters (m) (2,510.3 ft) and the hole opened to 66.04 cm (26 in.); followed by the 50.80-cm (20-in.) surface casing, which was installed and sealed with cement; and a piezometer (p4) was set in the Timber Mountain welded-tuff aquifer (TMWTA) between the casing and the open borehole. The borehole was continued with a 46.99-cm (18.5-in.) drill bit to a depth of 1,326.53 m (4,352.16 ft), and an intermediate 24.44-cm (9.625-in.) casing was installed and sealed to 1,188.72 m (3,900.00 ft) A piezometer (p3) was installed across the Calico Hills zeolitic composite unit (CHZCM) (lava-flow aquifer [LFA]) in the annulus of the open borehole. Two additional piezometers were installed and completed between the intermediate casing and the borehole wall, one (p2) in the CHZCM and one (p1) in the Belted Range aquifer (BRA). The piezometers are set to monitor groundwater properties in the completed intervals. The borehole was continued with a 21.59-cm (8.5-in.) drill bit to a total depth of 1,384.80 m (4,543.33 ft), and the main completion 13.97-cm (5.5-in.) casing was installed in the open borehole across the Pre-Belted Range composite unit (PBRCM). Data collected during hole construction include composite drill cutting samples collected every 3.0 m (10 ft), geophysical logs, hydrophysical logs, percussion core samples, water-quality measurements (including tritium), and water-level measurements. The well penetrated 1,384.4 m (4,543.33 ft) of Tertiary volcanic rocks. The stratigraphy and lithology were generally as expected with one noted exception. A thick lava-flow and related ash-flow tuffs were identified as Calico Hills Formation (Th), and no Crater Flat units were noted. Additionally, many of the Thirsty Canyon and Timber Mountain units were thicker than expected. Fluid levels measured in the borehole during drilling are the following: (1) on November 2, 2015, Navarro measured the fluid level in the borehole at a depth of 492.33 m (1,615.25 ft) below ground surface (bgs); (2) Schlumberger and COLOG recorded fluid levels during geophysical logging on November 4 and 5, 2015, at a depth of 492.86 m (1,617 ft) and 492.25 m (1,615 ft) bgs, respectively; and (3) on December 4, 2015, COLOG and Navarro measured fluid level in the 20-in. casing with an open borehole to 1,326.54 m (4,352.16 ft) bgs at 575.77 m (1,889.00 ft) and 574.03 m (1,883.3 ft) bgs, respectively. These and subsequent water-level measurements indicate a potential head difference of greater than 76.2 m (250 ft) for groundwater in aquifers above and below the Upper Paintbrush confining unit (UPCU). As expected, tritium was occasionally measured above the Safe Drinking Water Act limit (20,000 picocuries per liter [pCi/L]). Lab analysis on four bailed samples and taken from the undeveloped well indicate that the tritium activities average approximately 36,545 pCi/L. All Fluid Management Plan (FMP) requirements for Well ER-20-12 were met. Analysis of monitoring samples and FMP confirmatory samples indicate that fluids generated during drilling at ER-20-12 met the FMP criteria for discharge to the lined sump and designated infiltration area. All sanitary and hydrocarbon waste generated was properly handled and disposed of.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Is there a relationship between fledge age and nest temperature in Western Bluebirds (Sialia mexicana)?

Extensive research has been done on temperature during bird incubation periods, but little has been done during nestling development, and to our knowledge, no studies have been done on Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) nestling development. In this study, dataloggers were used to monitor nest temperatures during the nestling development phase of Western Bluebirds to determine if there was a relationship between fledge age and temperature. The study was conducted in an existing nestbox network at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the surrounding area in north-central New Mexico. Based on the age of the nestlings at fledging, the nestboxes (n=65) were split into three groups: early (16 and 17 days old, n=13), average (fledged at or between 18 and 20 days old, n=32), and late (21 days or older, n=20). The temperatures of the early and average (n=45) groups were not significantly different (p=0.32, W=3831000). There was a significant difference in the temperatures between the early and late groups (p=0.000, W=2965600). The early and average groups were then combined, tested against the late group, and were found to be significantly different (p=0.000, W=11315000). Analysis showed a difference within the first seven days post-hatch of 1.42°C between the early/average and late groupings. The results suggest that warmer nest temperatures during the nestling stage may influence the fledge date and may lead to faster fledging. There may be numerous explanations for this, such as a correlation with nestling development, and higher temperatures may allow for faster development. Brood size was non-significant and was not factored into the analysis. Future work should be directed in this area.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impacts on California of Expanded Regional Cooperation to Operate the Western Grid (Final Report)

Policy makers in California and other western states are exploring options for greater regional cooperation in managing the western power grid to better achieve public policy goals. This report, requested by the California State Assembly and commissioned by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), reviews and summarizes recent proposals, studies, and papers addressing various modes of regional cooperation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Western Grid Can Handle High Renewables in Challenging Conditions

Fact sheet outlining the key findings of Phase 3 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-3). NREL and GE find that with good system planning, sound engineering practices, and commercially available technologies, the Western grid can maintain reliability and stability during the crucial first minute after grid disturbances with high penetrations of wind and solar power.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2015

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 3: Technical Overview

Technical fact sheet outlining the key findings of Phase 3 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS-3). NREL and GE find that with good system planning, sound engineering practices, and commercially available technologies, the Western grid can maintain reliability and stability during the crucial first minute after grid disturbances with high penetrations of wind and solar power.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2014

Intermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges: Atmospheric Rivers and IF disturbances

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10–30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30°N and 50°N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979–2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Civil infrastructure such as culverts and bridges are commonly designed using precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation is in the form of rainfall and immediately available for the rainfall-runoff process. In snow-dominated regions, where most winter precipitation occurs as snow that melts during spring to early summer, the use of standard PREC-IDF curves may lead to substantial underestimation of design floods and high failure risk of infrastructure. In this context, we developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that characterize the actual water reaching the land surface (i.e., rainfall plus snowmelt) to enhance standard infrastructure design in snow-dominated regions. This study evaluates the performance of NG-IDF curves coupled with U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Release 55 hydrologic model in estimating design floods for 246 snowy locations in different hydroclimate regimes of the western United States. Design flood estimates from a well-validated continuous simulation using a physics-based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), were used as the performance benchmark. Compared with the benchmark estimates, the standard PREC-IDF curves led to substantial errors in design flood estimates while the NG-IDF curves significantly reduced these errors. For example, the averaged error in the 50-year design flood estimates over the 246 locations was reduced from 31% with the use of PREC-IDF curves to 12% with the use of NG-IDF curves. Despite the different model structures, the single-event NG-IDF approach versus the continuous simulation DHSVM did not exhibit statistically significant differences in 91% of the 246 locations for the 50-year design flood estimates. We find this indicates a satisfactory performance of NG-IDF curves to estimate design flow under the conditions tested in the snow-dominated western United States. This article also presents technical suggestions and the limitations of infrastructure design using NG-IDF curves for regulatory agencies and practicing engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (CCSM), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (VIC), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Ashfaq, Moetasim↗
DOE OSTI2018

Deglaciation of coastal south-western Spitsbergen dated with in situ cosmogenic 10 Be and 14 C measurements

We report the Svalbard–Barents ice sheet was predominantly a marine-based ice sheet and reconstructing the timing and rate of its decay during the last deglaciation informs predictions of future decay of marine-based ice sheets (e.g. West Antarctica). Records of ice-sheet change are routinely built with cosmogenic surface exposure ages, but in some regions, this method is complicated by the presence of isotopic inheritance yielding artificially old and erroneous exposure ages for the most recent deglaciation. We present 46 10 Be ages from south-western Spitsbergen that, when paired with in situ 14 C measurements (n = 5), constrain the timing of coastal deglaciation following the last glacial maximum. 10Be and in situ 14 C measurements from bedrock along a ~400-m elevation transect reveal inheritance-skewed 10Be ages, whereas in situ 14 C measurements constrain 400 m of ice-sheet thinning and coastal deglaciation at 17.4 ± 1.5 ka. Our in situ 14 C-dated transect, combined with three additional 10 Be-dated coastal sites, show that the south-western margin of the Svalbard–Barents ice sheet retreated out of the Norwegian Sea between ~18 and 16 ka. In situ 14 C measurements provide key chronological information on ice-sheet response to the last termination in cases where measurements of long-lived nuclides are compromised by isotopic inheritance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Key Drivers for Offshore Wind Deployment in the Western United States

The western coast of the United States has abundant natural resources, including wind, sun, and water. Despite strong ocean winds, offshore wind energy (OSW) in the Western United States is in the early stages of technology development due largely to the deep water off the coast, which requires floating platforms rather than fixed‐bottom turbines. Floating OSW increases the technical difficulty of installation and thus the cost relative to both fixed‐bottom OSW and land‐based turbines. OSW is a potential generation option to help meet increasing demand on the west coast of the United States because it likely has fewer land‐use conflicts than other technologies and complements sources in the existing electricity supply by providing energy during times of high system stress. This paper examines the possible drivers and barriers to OSW deployment on the West Coast using the National Laboratory of the Rockies' state‐of‐the‐art capacity expansion model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. We use ReEDS to explore a multitude of future scenarios looking at key drivers for OSW deployment, including variations on the cost of OSW, electricity demand growth, and the availability of competing technologies to examine the factors that may play a role in OSW growth. Assuming coastal state policies such as renewable portfolio and clean energy standards remain in place, we find that OSW can play a role in meeting electricity demand and provide energy during stressful grid conditions and find that deployment from the least‐cost investment model ranges from 7.6 to 38 GW by 2045.

17 WIND ENERGY↗