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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS1986

SCARE - A postprocessor program to MSC/NASTRAN for reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Gyekenyesi, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The effects of surface finish and grain size on the strength of sintered silicon carbide

The effects of surface treatment and microstructure, especially abnormal grain growth, on the strength of sintered SiC were studied. The surfaces of sintered SiC were treated with 400, 800 and 1200 grit diamond wheels. Grain growth was induced by increasing the sintering times at 2050 C. The beta to alpha transformation occurred during the sintering of beta-phase starting materials and was often accompanied by abnormal grain growth. The overall strength distributions were established using Weibull statistics. The strength of the sintered SiC is limited by extrinsic surface flaws in normal-sintered specimens. The finer the surface finish and grain size, the higher the strength. But the strength of abnormal sintering specimens is limited by the abnormally grown large tabular grains. The Weibull modulus increases with decreasing grain size and decreasing grit size for grinding.

You, Y. H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

NASA NTRS2012

Emperical Tests of Acceptance Sampling Plans

Acceptance sampling is a quality control procedure applied as an alternative to 100% inspection. A random sample of items is drawn from a lot to determine the fraction of items which have a required quality characteristic. Both the number of items to be inspected and the criterion for determining conformance of the lot to the requirement are given by an appropriate sampling plan with specified risks of Type I and Type II sampling errors. In this paper, we present the results of empirical tests of the accuracy of selected sampling plans reported in the literature. These plans are for measureable quality characteristics which are known have either binomial, exponential, normal, gamma, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, or Poisson distributions. In the main, results support the accepted wisdom that variables acceptance plans are superior to attributes (binomial) acceptance plans, in the sense that these provide comparable protection against risks at reduced sampling cost. For the Gaussian and Weibull plans, however, there are ranges of the shape parameters for which the required sample sizes are in fact larger than the corresponding attributes plans, dramatically so for instances of large skew. Tests further confirm that the published inverse-Gaussian (IG) plan is flawed, as reported by White and Johnson (2011).

White, K. Preston, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Simulation of flight maneuver-load distributions by utilizing stationary, non-Gaussian random load histories

Random numbers were generated with the aid of a digital computer and transformed such that the probability density function of a discrete random load history composed of these random numbers had one of the following non-Gaussian distributions: Poisson, binomial, log-normal, Weibull, and exponential. The resulting random load histories were analyzed to determine their peak statistics and were compared with cumulative peak maneuver-load distributions for fighter and transport aircraft in flight.

Leybold, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Gyekenyesi, John P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

Gyekenyesi, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Incorporating finite element analysis into component life and reliability

A method for calculating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the disk speed where the probability of survival is highest.

August, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1993

Longitudinal study of astronaut health: Mortality in the years 1959-1991

We conducted a historical cohort study of mortality among 195 astronauts who were exposed to space and medical sources of radiation between 1959 and 1991. Cumulative occupational and medical radiation exposures were obtained from the astronaut radiation exposure history data base. Causes of death were obtained from obligatory death certificates and autopsy reports that were on file in the medical records. A total of 18 deaths occurred during the 32-year follow-up period for which the all-cause standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 142 (95 percent confidence interval 84 225). There was one cancer death in the buccal cavity and pharynegeal ICD-9 rubric whose occurrence was significantly beyond expectation. Mortality for coronary disease was 59 percent lower than expected (2 deaths; SMR = 41; 95 percent confidence limit 5 147). The crude death rate for 10 occupationally related accidents was 400 deaths per 100,000 person-years, which is an order of magnitude greater than accidental death rates in mining industries. The SMR of 1027 for fatal accidents was significantly beyond expectation (14 deaths; 95 percent confidence limit 561 1723) and was similar to SMRs for accidents among aerial pesticide applications. The 10-year cumulative risk of occupational fatalities based on the exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and linear-exponential distributions was 10 percent. Mortality from motor vehicle accidents was slightly higher than expected but was not significant (1 death; SMR = 145; 95 percent confidence limit 2 808). Radiation exposures from medical procedures accounted for a majority of cumulative dose when compared with space radiation exposures. The results of the study do not confirm the impression that astronauts are at increased risk of cancer, but this does not obviate the need for further study. Overall, it was found that astronauts are at a health disadvantage as a result of catastrophic accidents.

Peterson, Leif E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Predicting Numbers of Problems in Development of Software

A method has been formulated to enable prediction of the amount of work that remains to be performed in developing flight software for a spacecraft. The basic concept embodied in the method is that of using an idealized curve (specifically, the Weibull function) to interpolate from (1) the numbers of problems discovered thus far to (2) a goal of discovering no new problems after launch (or six months into the future for software already in use in orbit). The steps of the method can be summarized as follows: 1. Take raw data in the form of problem reports (PRs), including the dates on which they are generated. 2. Remove, from the data collection, PRs that are subsequently withdrawn or to which no response is required. 3. Count the numbers of PRs created in 1-week periods and the running total number of PRs each week. 4. Perform the interpolation by making a least-squares fit of the Weibull function to (a) the cumulative distribution of PRs gathered thus far and (b) the goal of no more PRs after the currently anticipated launch date. The interpolation and the anticipated launch date are subject to iterative re-estimation.

Simonds, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Gravitational Effects on Closed-Cellular-Foam Microstructure

Polyurethane foam has been produced in low gravity for the first time. The cause and distribution of different void or pore sizes are elucidated from direct comparison of unit-gravity and low-gravity samples. Low gravity is found to increase the pore roundness by 17% and reduce the void size by 50%. The standard deviation for pores becomes narrower (a more homogeneous foam is produced) in low gravity. Both a Gaussian and a Weibull model fail to describe the statistical distribution of void areas, and hence the governing dynamics do not combine small voids in either a uniform or a dependent fashion to make larger voids. Instead, the void areas follow an exponential law, which effectively randomizes the production of void sizes in a nondependent fashion consistent more with single nucleation than with multiple or combining events.

Noever, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability: A primer

A method for estimating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of material failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the qualitative effect of disk speed on the probability of survival.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Dynamic fragmentation in impacts - Hydrocode simulation of laboratory impacts

The dynamic fragmentation in impacts into solids is examined using a physical model for the formation and growth of cracks in rocks. The physical model is then inserted into a numerical model (hydrocode) of stress wave propagation and interaction, from which the outcome of a given impact event can be computed. The hydrocode model predicts fragment sizes due to impact in terms of shock waves propagating in a homogeneous elastic medium containing a distribution of crack nucleation centers known as Weibull flaws.

Melosh, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Experimental Reexamination of Transverse Tensile Strength for IM7/8552 Tape-Laminate Composites

Due to the observed dependence of transverse-tensile strength, YT, on test geometry and specimen size, there is no consensus regarding a test method that can uniquely measure YT. This study reexamines characterization of YT by comparing results from established flexure tests with results from a new tensile test that exhibits consistent failure in the gage region. Additionally, the effects of surface preparation and direction of transverse fracture are investigated. Results show that YT is inversely proportional to specimen volume and surface roughness, and is insensitive to direction of transverse fracture. The relationship between specimen volume and YT is adequately captured by Weibull strength-scaling theory, except at the tails of the YT distributions. However, specimens exhibited microcracking prior to failure, which violates the “weak-link” assumptions of the Weibull theory. These findings highlight the challenges of using deterministic YT values in progressive damage analysis.

Arndt, Caitlin M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Design and development of ceramic components

The development of the AGT 100 turbine components in structural ceramic materials is described. Development is defined as the complete and iterative cycle from design, analysis, test, and design refinement culminating in successful demonstration of the design requirements. The components are analyzed by a linear elastic probabilistic approach, which involves finite element (three- and/or two-dimensional) simulation of the component combined with a Weibull characterization of the brittle ceramic material strength distribution to calculate a probability of survival for the component in the operating environment. Component test failure investigation has resulted in design modifications, and an improvement in component reliability has been demonstrated. Engine testing (over 570 h to date) continues to assess design/development of structural ceramic components.

Holtman, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Analysis of the progressive failure of brittle matrix composites

This report investigates two of the most common modes of localized failures, namely, periodic fiber-bridged matrix cracks and transverse matrix cracks. A modification of Daniels' bundle theory is combined with Weibull's weakest link theory to model the statistical distribution of the periodic matrix cracking strength for an individual layer. Results of the model predictions are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Extensions to the model are made to account for possible imperfections within the layer (i.e., nonuniform fiber lengths, irregular crack spacing, and degraded in-situ fiber properties), and the results of these studies are presented. A generalized shear-lag analysis is derived which is capable of modeling the development of transverse matrix cracks in material systems having a general multilayer configuration and under states of full in-plane load. A method for computing the effective elastic properties for the damaged layer at the global level is detailed based upon the solution for the effects of the damage at the local level. This methodology is general in nature and is therefore also applicable to (0(sub m)/90(sub n))(sub s) systems. The characteristic stress-strain response for more general cases is shown to be qualitatively correct (experimental data is not available for a quantitative evaluation), and the damage evolution is recorded in terms of the matrix crack density as a function of the applied strain. Probabilistic effects are introduced to account for the statistical nature of the material strengths, thus allowing cumulative distribution curves for the probability of failure to be generated for each of the example laminates. Additionally, Oh and Finney's classic work on fracture location in brittle materials is extended and combined with the shear-lag analysis. The result is an analytical form for predicting the probability density function for the location of the next transverse crack occurrence within a crack bounded region. The results of this study verified qualitatively the validity of assuming a uniform crack spacing (as was done in the shear-lag model).

Thomas, David J.↗