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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Methodology for Estimating the Energy and Moisture Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Using Continuous Ground-Based Infrared Spectrometer Observations

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in both the atmospheric water and energy cycles. Changes in soil moisture and vegetation alter the partitioning of surface water and energy fluxes, influencing diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The mixing-diagram framework has proven useful in understanding the evolution of the heat and moisture budget within the convective boundary layer (CBL). We demonstrate that observations from the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site provide all of the needed inputs needed for the mixing-diagram framework, allowing us to quantify the impact from the surface fluxes, advection, radiative heating, encroachment, and entrainment on the evolution of the CBL. Profiles of temperature and humidity retrieved from the ground-based infrared spectrometer [Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI)] are a critical component in this analysis. Large-eddy simulation results demonstrate that mean mixed-layer values derived are shown to be critical to close the energy and moisture budgets. A novel approach demonstrated here is the use of network of AERIs and Doppler lidars to quantify the advective fluxes of heat and moisture. The framework enables the estimation of the entrainment fluxes as a residual, providing a way to observe the entrainment fluxes without using multiple lidar systems. The high temporal resolution of the AERI observations enables the morning, midday, and afternoon evolution of the CBL to be quantified. This work provides a new way to use observations in this framework to evaluate weather and climate models. Significance Statement The energy and moisture budget of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is influenced by multiple sources, and accurately representing this evolution in numerical models is critical for weather forecasts and climate predictions. The mixing-diagram approach, driven by profiling observations as illustrated here, provides a powerful way to quantify the contributions from each of these sources. In particular, the energy and moisture mixed into the PBL from above the PBL can be determined accurately from ground-based remote sensors using this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of size-resolved cloud microphysics scheme numerics for use with radar observations Part II: Condensation and evaporation

Accurate numerical modeling of clouds and precipitation is essential for weather forecasting and climate change research. While size-resolved (bin) cloud microphysics models predict particle size distributions without imposing shapes, results are subject to artificial size distribution broadening owing to numerical diffusion associated with various processes. Whereas Part I of this study addressed collision–coalescence, here we investigate numerical diffusion that occurs in solving condensation and evaporation. In a parcel model framework, all of the numerical schemes examined converge to one solution of condensation and evaporation as the mass grid is refined, and the advection-based schemes are recommended over the reassigning schemes. Including Eulerian vertical advection in a column limits the convergence to some extent, but that limitation occurs at a sufficiently fine mass grid, and the number of iterations in solving vertical advection should be minimized to reduce numerical diffusion. Insubstantial numerical diffusion in solving condensation can be amplified if collision–coalescence is also active, which in turn can be substantially diminished if turbulence effects on collision are incorporated. Here, large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field reveal that changes in moments of Doppler spectra obtained using different mass grids are consistent with those obtained from the simplified framework, and that spectral moments obtained using a mass grid designed to effectively reduce numerical diffusion are generally closer to observations. Notable differences between the simulations and observations still exist, and our results suggest a need to consider whether factors other than numerical diffusion in the fundamental process schemes employed can cause such differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Causal Inference Model Based on Random Forests to Identify the Effect of Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Soil moisture influences precipitation mainly through its impact on land–atmosphere interactions. Understanding and correctly modeling soil moisture–precipitation (SM–P) coupling is crucial for improving weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions, especially when predicting the persistence and magnitude of drought. However, the sign and spatial structure of SM–P feedback are still being debated in the climate research community, mainly due to the difficulty in establishing causal relationships and the high degree of nonlinearity in land–atmosphere processes. To this end, we developed a causal inference model based on the Granger causality analysis and a nonlinear machine learning model. This model includes three steps: nonlinear anomaly decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality analysis, and evaluation of the quality of SM–P feedback, which eliminates the nonlinear response of interannual and seasonal variability and the memory effects of climatic factors and isolates the causal relationship of local SM–P feedback. We applied this model by using National Climate Assessment–Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) datasets over the United States. Here, the results highlight the importance of nonlinear atmosphere responses in land–atmosphere interactions. In addition, the strong feedback over the southwestern United States and the Great Plains both highlight the impacts of topographic factors rather than only the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, the SM–P index defined by our framework is used to benchmark Earth system models (ESMs), which provides a new metric for efficiently identifying potential model biases in modeling local land–atmosphere interactions and may help the development of ESMs in improving simulations of water cycle variability and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Used for Atmospheric Research

Abstract Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) are regularly being used to conduct atmospheric research and are starting to be used as a data source for informing weather models through data assimilation. However, only a limited number of studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of these systems and assess their ability to replicate measurements from more traditional sensors such as radiosondes and towers. In the current work, we use data collected in central Oklahoma over a 2-week period to offer insight into the performance of five different sUAS platforms and associated sensors in measuring key weather data. This includes data from three rotary-wing and two fixed-wing sUAS and included two commercially available systems and three university-developed research systems. Flight data were compared to regular radiosondes launched at the flight location, tower observations, and intercompared with data from other sUAS platforms. All platforms were shown to measure atmospheric state with reasonable accuracy, though there were some consistent biases detected for individual platforms. This information can be used to inform future studies using these platforms and is currently being used to provide estimated error covariances as required in support of assimilation of sUAS data into weather forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25–30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Abstract An unprecedented heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25–30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking midtropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking midtropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum insolation, and drier-than-normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time-record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1°C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures. Significance Statement This paper describes the atmospheric evolution that produced an extreme heat wave over the Pacific Northwest during June 2021 and puts this event into historical perspective.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wave and Offshore Wind Resource in the U.S. Pacific Ocean Minor Outlying Islands

Coastal environments such as islands have unique opportunities for renewable energy resources. This work explores the wave and offshore wind energy potential for the U.S. Pacific Ocean Minor Outlying Islands, including Baker Island, Howland Island, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, and Wake Island. A numerical wave model based on WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (both are NWS / NOAA models) was developed, validated, and executed to generate a 32-year hindcast dataset suitable for resource characterization for each island. A complementary offshore wind resource characterization is provided for the same time period based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Each island has five netcdf files: 1. wave_[island]_annual_J_map.nc: the data used to generate the map of annual averaged omnidirectional wave power (J [kW/m]) 2. wave_[island]_100m_IEC: six IEC parameters at 100m isobath from 1979/01/01 to 2020/12/31, output hourly 3. wave_[island]_5km_IEC: six IEC parameters at 5km from the shoreline 1979/01/01 to 2020/12/31, output hourly 4. wind_island_100mASL_windspeed_timeseries.nc: wind speed timeseries from ERA5 at 100 m above sea level within a 60 km radius of the island (m/s) 1979/01/01 to 2010/12/31, output hourly 5. wind_island_100mASL_winddirection_timeseries.nc: wind direction timeseries from ERA5 at 100 m above sea level within a 60 km radius of the island (degrees) 1979/01/01 to 2010/12/31, output hourly

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

xesn: Echo state networks powered by Xarray and Dask

Xesn is a Python package that allows scientists to easily design Echo State Networks (ESNs) for forecasting problems. ESNs are a Recurrent Neural Network architecture introduced by Jaeger (2001) that are part of a class of techniques termed Reservoir Computing. One defining characteristic of these techniques is that all internal weights are determined by a handful of global, scalar parameters, thereby avoiding problems during backpropagation and reducing training time significantly. Because this architecture is conceptually simple, many scientists implement ESNs from scratch, leading to questions about computational performance. Xesn offers a straightforward, standard implementation of ESNs that operates efficiently on CPU and GPU hardware. The package leverages optimization tools to automate the parameter selection process, so that scientists can reduce the time finding a good architecture and focus on using ESNs for their domain application. Importantly, the package flexibly handles forecasting tasks for out-of-core, multi-dimensional datasets, eliminating the need to write parallel programming code. Xesn was initially developed to handle the problem of forecasting weather dynamics, and so it integrates naturally with Python packages that have become familiar to weather and climate scientists such as Xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017). However, the software is ultimately general enough to be utilized in other domains where ESNs have been useful, such as in signal processing (Jaeger & Haas, 2004).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed AI for Climate and Weather Risk Prediction (Final Report)

As part of the work Terrafuse developed 1) a model for wildfire risk in California, and 2) a model for downscaled wind fields from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) numerical models. The wildfire model is based on 20 years of historical data and captures the dependence of wildfire incidence and spread on climatic, weather and land-use variables by training a machine learning model. Nonlinear relationships between input features are learned and expressed by the model and model transparency allows features to be ranked and interpreted. The fire model is of use for accurately predicting real-time daily and long-term wildfire risk for use cases in energy and insurance. The downscaled wind model is a spatio-temporal deep learning model that emulates the influence of high-resolution variables on wind speed, allowing coarse-resolution operational NWP models to be accurately expressed on fine grids at high resolution, with application to wind energy and weather forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Theory and Modeling Efforts in Heliophysics

Heliophysics theory and modeling build understanding from fundamental principles to motivate, interpret, and predict observations. Together with observational analysis, they constitute a comprehensive scientific program in heliophysics. As observations and data analysis become increasingly detailed, it is critical that theory and modeling develop more quantitative predictions and iterate with observations. Advanced theory and modeling can inspire and greatly improve the design of new instruments and increase their chance of success. In addition, in order to build physicsbased space weather forecast models, it is important to keep developing and testing new theories, and maintaining constant communications with theory and modeling. Maintaining a sustainable effort in theory and modeling is critically important to heliophysics. We recommend that all funding agencies join forces and consider expanding current and creating new theory and modeling programs–especially, 1. NASA should restore the HTMS program to its original support level to meet the critical needs of heliophysics science; 2. a Strategic Research Model program needs to be created to support model development for next-generation basic research codes; 3. new programs must be created for addressing mission-critical theory and modeling needs; and 4. enhanced programs are urgently required for training the next generation of theorists and modelers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Puerto Rico Historical Climate Analysis: A closer look at complex tropical terrain

Small tropical islands like Puerto Rico are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts, yet are often underrepresented in most datasets because the spatial resolution is too coarse to sufficiently cover their complex terrain. This study was done to better understand how the climate has changed in the various regions of Puerto Rico, which will support a transition to renewable energy and aid in projecting future climate impacts on the residents and land they live on. This study used multiple datasets including Daymet, a daily surface weather and climatological summary; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5); and station observations. The climate variables examined here include minimum and maximum near-surface air temperature, daily precipitation, incident shortwave radiation, and large-scale upper atmosphere conditions. The time periods cover the years 1950–2019. Results in both Daymet and station observations show long-term warming trends throughout every season. In particular, the minimum winter temperatures increased the most compared with maximum and mean air temperature. Northeast Puerto Rico, where the majority of the island’s population is located, experienced the largest warming. Summertime precipitation has decreased over time, and spring and fall precipitation has increased. The largest increase in fall is because there has been more available precipitable water, lower sea-level pressure, and favorable cyclonic circulations from the trade winds over the past seven decades. Overall, wet days are getting wetter, while dry days are getting drier. While there are good solar energy potential, we see a long-term decreasing trend in shortwave radiation over time in all seasons across entire island, possibly due to the increase of cloud cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗