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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling Individual Tree Transpiration With Thermal Cameras Reveals Interspecies Differences to Drought Vulnerability

Abstract Understanding tree transpiration variability is vital for assessing ecosystem water‐use efficiency and forest health amid climate change, yet most landscape‐level measurements do not differentiate individual trees. Using canopy temperature data from thermal cameras, we estimated the transpiration rates of individual trees at Harvard Forest and Niwot Ridge. PT‐JPL model was used to derive latent heat flux from thermal images at the canopy‐level, showing strong agreement with tower measurements ( R 2 = 0.70–0.96 at Niwot, 0.59–0.78 at Harvard at half‐hourly to monthly scales) and daily RMSE of 33.5 W/m 2 (Niwot) and 52.8 W/m 2 (Harvard). Tree‐level analysis revealed species‐specific responses to drought, with lodgepole pine exhibiting greater tolerance than Engelmann spruce at Niwot and red oak showing heightened resistance than red maple at Harvard. These findings show how ecophysiological differences between species result in varying responses to drought and demonstrate that these responses can be characterized by deriving transpiration from crown temperature measurements.

Javadian, Mostafa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Massive peatland carbon banks vulnerable to rising temperatures

Peatlands contain one-third of the world’s soil carbon (C). If destabilized, decomposition of this vast C bank could accelerate climate warming; however, the likelihood of this outcome remains unknown. Here, we examine peatland C stability through five years of whole-ecosystem warming and two years of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO 2 ). Warming exponentially increased methane (CH 4 ) emissions and enhanced CH 4 production rates throughout the entire soil profile; although surface CH 4 production rates remain much greater than those at depth. Additionally, older deeper C sources played a larger role in decomposition following prolonged warming. Most troubling, decreases in CO 2 :CH 4 ratios in gas production, porewater concentrations, and emissions, indicate that the peatland is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We observed limited evidence of eCO 2 effects. Our results suggest that ecosystem responses are largely driven by surface peat, but that the vast C bank at depth in peatlands is responsive to prolonged warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Critical Vulnerabilities in Natural Gas Pipeline Systems through Network Centrality and GIS Analytics

Natural gas plays a central role in the US energy landscape, providing 43% of electricity generation in 2023. Its exclusive recovery ability on pipelines for transmission underscores the importance of understanding the disruption recovery ability of this infrastructure. This study employs a network-based analytical framework integrating geographic information systems (GIS) with multiple centrality measures—betweenness, closeness, degree, and eigenvector—to pinpoint key segments and evaluate the structural robustness of the national pipeline network. Pipelines are grouped by System ID and Operator ID to capture variations across organizational and physical structures. The analysis reveals uneven patterns of network influence, where certain pipelines function as critical connectors or dominant hubs. Spatial mapping highlights geographic dependencies and potential chokepoints, offering a clear view of where targeted risk prevention measures would be most effective. The findings provide practical guidance for prioritizing maintenance, enhancing system robustness, and mitigating risks to ensure a stable and secure energy supply. Future research will expand the framework to incorporate dynamic operational data and real-time network behavior.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vulnerability Assessments for Power-Electronics-Based Smart Grids

Here, in this paper, a novel method is proposed to evaluate the cyber security of the power-electronics-based smart grids (PESG). The proposed method considers the performance and stability of both the individual inverter and the grid. To our knowledge, this is a first attempt to evaluate the performance and stability of PESG due to cyber attacks. We first develop impedance-based modeling and cyber-attack modeling for PESG. Then we propose innovative two security criteria to evaluate the security of PESG, including stability-based and metrics-based. For metrics-based criteria, we propose to use both total harmonic distortion (THD) and space phasor model (SPM) to evaluate the inverter performance. The simulation results with a two-inverter-based power grid verify the validity and accuracy of the proposed security evaluation method. Results have shown that the performance and stability of PESG are significantly affected by cyber attacks, and thus there is indeed a need to further study cyber security issues of PESG.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of Post Attack Impacts and Effects of Learning Parameters on Vulnerability Assessment of Power Grid

Due to the increasing number of heterogeneous devices connected to electric power grid, the attack surface increases the threat actors. Game theory and machine learning are being used to study the power system failures caused by external manipulation. Most of existing works in the literature focus on one-shot process of attacks and fail to show the dynamic evolution of the defense strategy. In this paper, we focus on an adversarial multistage sequential game between the adversaries of the smart electric power transmission and distribution system. We study the impact of exploration rate and convergence of the attack strategies (sequences of action that creates large scale blackout based on the system capacity) based on the reinforcement learning approach. We also illustrate how the learned attack actions disrupt the normal operation of the grid by creating transmission line outages, bus voltage violations, and generation loss. This simulation studies are conducted on IEEE 9 and 39 bus systems. The results show the improvement of the defense strategy through the learning process. The results also prove the feasibility of the learned attack actions by replicating the disturbances created in simulated power system.

attack impacts↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destabilizing a Social Network Model via Intrinsic Feedback Vulnerabilities

Social influence plays a significant role in shaping individual sentiments and actions, particularly in a world of ubiquitous digital interconnection. The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has given rise to well-founded concerns regarding the potential implementation of radicalization techniques in social media. Motivated by these developments, we present a case study investigating the effects of small but intentional perturbations on a simple social network. We employ Taylor's classic model of social influence and tools from robust control theory (most notably the Dynamical Structure Function (DSF)), to identify perturbations that qualitatively alter the system's behavior while remaining as unobtrusive as possible. We examine two such scenarios: perturbations to an existing link and perturbations that introduce a new link to the network. In each case, we identify destabilizing perturbations of minimal norm and simulate their effects. Remarkably, we find that small but targeted alterations to network structure may lead to the radicalization of all agents, exhibiting the potential for large-scale shifts in collective behavior to be triggered by comparatively minuscule adjustments in social influence. Given that this method of identifying perturbations that are innocuous yet destabilizing applies to any suitable dynamical system, our findings emphasize a need for similar analyses to be carried out on real systems (e.g., real social networks), to identify the places where such dynamics may already exist.

Rogers, Lane [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability of a VOC-Based Inverter Due to Noise Injection and Its Mitigation

Even though virtual oscillator control (VOC)-based inverters do not communicate with each other, they need to make local measurements for control. The impact of tampering with these measured or sensed signals on the performance of a VOC-based inverter and synchronization of multiple such inverters is an important but open-ended issue. As such, this letter explores the impact of intentional side-channel noise intrusion (SNI) on the synchronization of VOC-based communication-free self-synchronizing inverters (CFSIs). Two different scenarios are investigated via experimental and analytical studies using a half-bridge neutral point clamped (NPC) single-phase CFSI. Furthermore, they address the impact of SNI on the ability of a CFSI to ensure a stable 60-Hz limit cycle and on the parallel operation of two such CFSIs to ensure synchronism to a common 60-Hz load frequency.

42 ENGINEERING↗