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At least 163 records · Page 9

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Role of momentum in the generator-coordinate method applied to barrier penetration

Nuclear fission at barrier-top energies is conventionally modeled by a one-dimensional Schrödinger equation applied to internal fission channels, but that treatment is hard to justify in the configuration-interaction approach to nuclear Hamiltonians. Here we show that inclusion of states of finite momentum by the generator coordinate method (GCM) considerably extends the range of energies at which GCM-based Hamiltonians could reproduce the Schrödinger treatment. Furthermore, the transmission probabilities for crossing the barrier are calculated by a discrete version of Kohn's variational method, which may also be useful for other systems of interacting fermions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Stability Analysis of Cylindrical Panels Using a Finite Element Formulation

A cylindrical finite element suitable for the linear stability analysis of cylindrical shells is developed. Energy principles and variational methods lead to a problem formulation which lends itself to physical interpretations of the governing matrices of the finite element. By properly grouping the terms which result from taking the second variation of the potential energy of the element, it is possible to identify three distinct types of matrices. The first matrix is the conventional stiffness matrix; the second is an initial stress stiffness matrix; and the third is an initial displacement stiffness matrix. With the assumption of linearity, the buckling problem is stated in terms of the classical linear real eigenvalue equation. This problem formulation was programmed on the CDC 6600 series computer. The computer program is used to analyze the buckling of a variety of structures. Columns, arches, flat plates and curved panels with and without cutouts are considered.

Snyder, R. E.↗

Shape integral method for magnetospheric shapes

A method is developed for calculating the shape of any magnetopause to arbitrarily high precision. The method uses an integral equation which is evaluated for a trial shape. The resulting values of the integral equation as a function of auxiliary variables indicate how close one is to the desired solution. A variational method can then be used to improve the trial shape. Some potential applications are briefly mentioned.

Michel, F. C.↗

Determination of Flaw Size from Thermographic Data

Conventional methods for reducing the pulsed thermographic responses of delaminations tend to overestimate the size of the flaw. Since the heat diffuses in the plane parallel to the surface, the resulting temperature profile over the flaw is larger than the flaw. A variational method is presented for reducing the thermographic data to produce an estimated size for the flaw that is much closer to the true size of the flaw. The size is determined from the spatial thermal response of the exterior surface above the flaw and a constraint on the length of the contour surrounding the flaw. The technique is applied to experimental data acquired on a flat bottom hole composite specimen.

Winfree, William P.↗

Comparison of some optimal control methods for the design of turbine blades

This paper attempts a comparative study of some numerical methods for the optimal control design of turbine blades whose vibration characteristics are approximated by Timoshenko beam idealizations with shear and incorporating simple boundary conditions. The blade was synthesized using the following methods: (1) conjugate gradient minimization of the system Hamiltonian in function space incorporating penalty function transformations, (2) projection operator methods in a function space which includes the frequencies of vibration and the control function, (3) epsilon-technique penalty function transformation resulting in a highly nonlinear programming problem, (4) finite difference discretization of the state equations again resulting in a nonlinear program, (5) second variation methods with complex state differential equations to include damping effects resulting in systems of inhomogeneous matrix Riccatti equations some of which are stiff, (6) quasi-linear methods based on iterative linearization of the state and adjoint equation. The paper includes a discussion of some substantial computational difficulties encountered in the implementation of these techniques together with a resume of work presently in progress using a differential dynamic programming approach.

Desilva, B. M. E.↗

Indirect methods for measuring variations of the solar constant

The difference between the methods that measure delta S, and those that measure variations in the solar luminosity, delta L, is discussed. It is shown that the past practice of simply relating delta S to delta L by geometrical arguments is not valid because of anisotropy of the solar radiation. It is concluded that direct techniques prove the existence of short term variability that is fully explainable in terms of the passage of active regions (spots and faculae) on the face of the Sun. The obervations of changes in the solar diameter support the existence of structurally induced variations of the solar luminosity on timescales of tens of years, which are significant in the understanding of climatic variations.

Sofia, S.↗

Intermolecular potential for thermal H2O-He collisions

Theoretical potentials for rotational excitation of H2O by He were constructed via several methods, all of which start with a large basis set SCF interaction. The semiempirical Hartree-Fock with damped dispersion model adds a damped long-range attraction with parameters adjusted to fit experimental total differential cross sections. Purely ab initio potentials add correlation energies obtained via perturbation theory (MP2 and MP4) or a variational method (ICF1). Scattering calculations were performed on all surfaces to compare wih available beam scattering and pressure broadening data and to assess sensitivity of state-to-state rates to uncertainties in the potential. From comparison with the limited experimental data, the ICF1 surface appears to be marginally better than the MP4 surface. Thermal rates calculated from this surface should be accurate to better than 50 percent, at least for the larger, more important rates.

Palma, Amedeo↗

Sound propagation through nonuniform ducts

Methods of determining the transmission and attenuation of sound propagating in nonuniform ducts with and without mean flows are discussed. The approaches reviewed include purely numerical techniques, quasi-one-dimensional approximations, solutions for slowly varying cross sections, solutions for weak wall undulations, approximation of the duct by a series of stepped uniform cross sections, variational methods and solutions for the mode envelopes.

Nayfeh, A. H.↗

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗

Highly Accurate Quartic Force Fields, Vibrational Frequencies, and Spectroscopic Constants for Cyclic and Linear C3H3(+)

High levels of theory have been used to compute quartic force fields (QFFs) for the cyclic and linear forms of the C H + molecular cation, referred to as c-C H + and I-C H +. Specifically the 33 3333 singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of connected triple excitations, CCSD(T), has been used in conjunction with extrapolation to the one-particle basis set limit and corrections for scalar relativity and core correlation have been included. The QFFs have been used to compute highly accurate fundamental vibrational frequencies and other spectroscopic constants using both vibrational 2nd-order perturbation theory and variational methods to solve the nuclear Schroedinger equation. Agreement between our best computed fundamental vibrational frequencies and recent infrared photodissociation experiments is reasonable for most bands, but there are a few exceptions. Possible sources for the discrepancies are discussed. We determine the energy difference between the cyclic and linear forms of C H +, 33 obtaining 27.9 kcal/mol at 0 K, which should be the most reliable available. It is expected that the fundamental vibrational frequencies and spectroscopic constants presented here for c-C H + 33 and I-C H + are the most reliable available for the free gas-phase species and it is hoped that 33 these will be useful in the assignment of future high-resolution laboratory experiments or astronomical observations.

Huang, Xinchuan↗

A study on the forced vibration of a Timoshenko beam

By using Galerkin's variational method an approximate solution is developed for a system of two differential equations with linear partial derivatives of the second order. This system of differential equations corresponds to the physical model, known in the literature as the Timoshenko Beam. The results obtained are applied to two particular cases representing respectively: the case of a beam with a rectangular section, with a constant height and a basis with a linear variation; and the case of a beam with a constant basis and a height with cubic variation.

Zainea, B.↗

On the evaluation of expected performance cost for partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems

New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.

Bayard, D. S.↗

Hydrogen atom in intense magnetic field.

The structure of a hydrogen atom situated in an intense magnetic field is investigaged. Three approaches are employed. An elementary Bohr picture establishes a crucial magnetic field strength, H sub a approximately equal to 5 x 10 to the 9th G. Fields in excess of H sub a are intense in that they are able to modify the characteristic atomic scales of length and binding energy. A second approach solves the Schrodinger equation by a combination of variational methods and perturbation theory. It yields analytic expressions for the wave functions and energy eigenvalues. A third approach determines the energy eigenvalues by reducing the Schrodinger equation to a one-dimensional wave equation, which is then solved numerically. Energy eigenvalues are tabulated for field strengths of 2 x 10 to the 10th G and 2 x 10 to the 12th G. It is found that at 2 x 10 to the 12th G the lowest energy eigenvalue is changed from -13.6 to about -180 eV in agreement with previous variational computations.

Canuto, V.↗

Reliable Spectroscopic Constants for CCH-, NH2- and Their Isotopomers from an Accurate Potential Energy Function

Accurate quartic force fields have been determined for the CCH- and NH2- molecular anions using the singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations, CCSD(T). Very large one-particle basis sets have been used including diffuse functions and up through g-type functions. Correlation of the nitrogen and carbon core electrons has been included, as well as other "small" effects, such as the diagonal Born-Oppenheimer correction, and basis set extrapolation, and corrections for higher-order correlation effects and scalar relativistic effects. Fundamental vibrational frequencies have been computed using standard second-order perturbation theory as well as variational methods. Comparison with the available experimental data is presented and discussed. The implications of our research for the astronomical observation of molecular anions will be discussed.

Lee, Timothy J.↗