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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Bayesian Tensor Learning With Automatic Rank Determination and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in many machine learning tasks is that the model expressive power depends on model size. Low-rank tensor methods are an efficient tool for handling the curse of dimensionality in many large-scale machine learning models. The major challenges in training a tensor learning model include how to process the high-volume data, how to determine the tensor rank automatically, and how to estimate the uncertainty of the results. While existing tensor learning focuses on a specific task, this paper proposes a generic Bayesian framework that can be employed to solve a broad class of tensor learning problems such as tensor completion, tensor regression, and tensorized neural networks. We develop a low-rank tensor prior for automatic rank determination in nonlinear problems. Our method is implemented with both stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). We compare the automatic rank determination and uncertainty quantification of these two solvers. We demonstrate that our proposed method can determine the tensor rank automatically and can quantify the uncertainty of the obtained results. We validate our framework on tensor completion tasks and tensorized neural network training tasks.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification of Capacitor Switching Transient Location using Machine Learning

Identification of capacitor switching transient location provides valuable insight into the state of the associated equipment. Machine learning (ML) models, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in signal location. However, ML models are data driven whose predictions are affected by noise in data and may also suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to new conditions. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to ensure model trustworthiness and avoid overconfident predictions in extrapolation. Here, in this work, we propose a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, to quantify prediction uncertainty of ML models and integrate the method with CNNs for transient source location. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks and uses root-finding methods to determine the interval precisely. Additionally, PI3NN can identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a nonstationary condition to avoid overconfident prediction. Results indicate that with PI3NN, transient signals are not only correctly identified, but when said signals are subject to corruptions characteristic of an actual power monitoring system (e.g. non-ideal sensors), the model recognizes when it is uncertain about its predictions, effectively letting the user know when to accept or discard the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conformalized-KANs: Uncertainty Quantification with Coverage Guarantees for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in Scientific Machine Learning

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods in the context of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs). We apply an ensemble approach to KANs to obtain a heuristic measure of UQ, enhancing interpretability and robustness in modeling complex functions. Building on this, we introduce Conformalized-KANs, which integrate conformal prediction, a distribution-free UQ technique, with KAN ensembles to generate calibrated prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.} Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods, focusing particularly on the robustness and accuracy of the prediction intervals under various hyperparameter settings. We show that the conformal KAN predictions can be applied to recent extensions of KANs, including Finite Basis KANs (FBKANs) and multifideilty KANs (MFKANs). The results demonstrate the potential of our approaches to significantly improve the reliability and applicability of KANs in scientific machine learning.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity Uncertainty Quantification for Homogenization Problems in Structure-Property Relationships from Crystal Plasticity Finite Elements

Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) has been an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workhorse to study materials behaviors and structure-property relationships for the last few decades. These relations are mappings from the microstructure space to the materials properties space. Due to the stochastic and random nature of microstructures, there is always some uncertainty associated with materials properties, for example, in homogenized stress-strain curves. For critical applications with strong reliability needs, it is often desirable to quantify the microstructure-induced uncertainty in the context of structure-property relationships. However, this uncertainty quantification (UQ) problem often incurs a large computational cost because many statistically equivalent representative volume elements (SERVEs) are needed. In this article, we apply a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to CPFEM to study the uncertainty in stress-strain curves, given an ensemble of SERVEs at multiple mesh resolutions. By using the information at coarse meshes, we show that it is possible to approximate the response at fine meshes with a much reduced computational cost. We focus on problems where the model output is multi-dimensional, which requires us to track multiple quantities of interest (QoIs) at the same time. In conclusion, our numerical results show that MLMC can accelerate UQ tasks around 2.23x, compared to the classical Monte Carlo (MC) method, which is widely known as ensemble average in the CPFEM literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty quantification of an empirical shell-model interaction using principal component analysis

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear theory. Here, we carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell-model calculations in the 1$\textit{s}$–0$\textit{d}$ valence space, investigating the sensitivity of observables to perturbations in the 66 parameters (matrix elements) of a high-quality empirical interaction. The large parameter space makes computing the corresponding Hessian numerically costly, so we compare a cost-effective approximation, using the Feynman-Hellmann theorem, to the full Hessian and find it works well. Diagonalizing the Hessian yields the principal components of the interaction: linear combinations of parameters ordered by sensitivity. This approximately decoupled distribution of parameters facilitates theoretical uncertainty propagation onto structure observables: electromagnetic transitions, Gamow-Teller decays, and dark matter-nucleus scattering matrix elements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clarifying trust of materials property predictions using neural networks with distribution-specific uncertainty quantification

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods have not been well explored in the field of heterogeneous catalysis. Herein, we investigate different UQ methods applied to a crystal graph convolutional neural network to predict adsorption energies of molecules on alloys from the Open Catalyst 2020 dataset, the largest existing heterogeneous catalyst dataset. We apply three UQ methods to the adsorption energy predictions, namely k-fold ensembling, Monte Carlo dropout, and evidential regression. The effectiveness of each UQ method is assessed based on accuracy, sharpness, dispersion, calibration, and tightness. Evidential regression is demonstrated to be a powerful approach for rapidly obtaining tunable, competitively trustworthy UQ estimates for heterogeneous catalysis applications when using neural networks. Recalibration of model uncertainties is shown to be essential in practical screening applications of catalysts using uncertainties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of a Light Water Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiment to Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Thermal neutron scattering laws are important nuclear data for many nuclear science and engineering applications. Validation helps to ensure that a thermal neutron scattering law has a high quality and often employs critical benchmarks as integral experiments. Recently, pulsed-neutron die-away benchmarks have been used as an experiment to validate thermal neutron scattering laws. Herein, we evidence how this alternative integral experiment has a high sensitivity to these nuclear data by performing an uncertainty quantification analysis. The analysis randomly sampled the nuclear model parameters associated with hydrogen bound in light water thermal neutron scattering law and sampled other nuclear data that influenced the experiment’s integral parameter (e.g., elastic scattering, absorption in hydrogen and oxygen) from their respective covariance matrices. The thermal neutron scattering law caused an uncertainty in the integral parameter that reached 2.67%, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the uncertainties induced in commonly used thermal solution critical benchmarks. The validation performed here, although limited due to a poor description of the historical experiment, indicated that the ENDF/B-VIII.0 thermal neutron scattering law well predicted the integral parameter. These results motivate further benchmark and validation efforts using pulsed-neutron die-away experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting critical heat flux with uncertainty quantification and domain generalization using conditional variational autoencoders and deep neural networks

Deep generative models (DGMs) can generate synthetic data samples that closely resemble the original dataset, addressing data scarcity. In this work, we developed a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to augment critical heat flux (CHF) data used for the 2006 Groeneveld lookup table. To compare with traditional methods, a fine-tuned deep neural network (DNN) regression model was evaluated on the same dataset. Both models achieved small mean absolute relative errors, with the CVAE showing more favorable results. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) was performed using repeated CVAE sampling and DNN ensembling. The DNN ensemble improved performance over the baseline, while the CVAE maintained consistent results with less variability and higher confidence. Both models achieved small errors inside and outside the training domain, with slightly larger errors outside. Altogether, the CVAE performed better than the DNN in predicting CHF and exhibited better uncertainty behavior.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of the convolutional neural networks on permeability estimation from micro-CT scanned sandstone and carbonate rock images

Rock permeability is one of the most crucial properties affecting subsurface fluid flow behaviors. To accurately and robustly estimate the permeability, Digital Rock Physics, including micro-CT scanning technology and direct flow simulations on scanned images, has prevailed in recent years. Besides, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted and achieved success in permeability estimations directly from rock images. However, existing ML methods used for permeability estimation from rock images lack uncertainty quantification that causes unreliable predictions and overconfident estimations on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Here, in this work, we propose a PI3NN-CNN framework to address this problem. PI3NN-CNN consists of a CNN model for absolute permeability estimation and a PI3NN method to quantify the estimation uncertainty. It is able to quantify the uncertainty for in-distribution (InD) data with a desired confidence level, and identify OOD samples to avoid overconfident predictions. We demonstrate the method using micro-CT scanned images from two sandstone and two carbonate rocks. We found that PI3NN-CNN generates accurate predictions for InD samples, while producing high-quality prediction uncertainties regardless of the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, PI3NN-CNN identifies OOD samples using its special network initialization scheme. The unique feature of PI3NN-CNN makes it applicable to more complex real-world image-based data for robust learning and predictions without overconfident estimations when the ground-truth information is unavailable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

5-10 Years Cross-cutting Priorities on the Topic of Nuclear Data Covariances and Uncertainty Quantification for Users

The goal of this meeting was to draft a whitepaper on prioritized nuclear data covariance and uncertainty quantification needs impacting users for the next 5 to 10 years. These needs are described herein in an actionable context (i.e., a high-level plan is given to address them), and are feasible for the community to tackle the need (i.e., high-level idea of funding is provided). It should be noted that each of these proposed projects are ideal for training new nuclear data evaluators who are also integrated into application needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification on the KRUSTY Microreactor Design Using GRIFFIN Neutron Transport Code [Poster]

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and INL have developed a GRIFFIN steady state neutronics model for the multiphysics simulations of the Kilopower Reactor Using Sterling TechnologY (KRUSTY) microreactor in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The reliability of such deterministic neutronics models can be validated by comparing with computations from Monte Carlo codes (e.g. MCNP, SERPENT, OpenMC, Shift, etc). Furthermore, potential modeling/design improvements can be identified by incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ), which can be performed by MOOSE’s Stochastic Tools Module (STM). KRUSTY is a prototype for a 5-kW thermal nuclear-powered space reactor. Its primary components consist of nuclear fuel, heat pipes, a control rod, a reflector, and the shielding. The fuel consists of 3 stacked U-7.65Mo cylinders with a hole in the center for the control rod. 8 liquid sodium heat pipes transfer fission energy from the solid fuel block to the Sterling power conversion system where the energy is extracted, and the cooled sodium flows back to the core via capillary action . The movable Boron Carbide control rod regulates the neutron population during startup or when a reactor temperature boost is needed . The beryllium oxide reflector is in 3 places in the reactor; it surrounds the core axially, it lies beneath the core on a platen, and it is present in the shim. The axial and lower reflectors rest on an adjustable stainless-steel platen that moves upward to cover the fuel and help the reactor reach criticality. Lastly, radial stainless steel surrounds the core offering protection from radiation exposure .

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗