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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trends in Small Satellite Presentations from 2017 - 2019

As the small satellite community expands and new technologies emerge, it is important to understand and interpret these changes over time. In doing so, we observe progress and aid future development within the field. During the summer of 2020 we compiled for assessment purposes, archived presentation data for years 2017-2019 from three primary sources: the CubeSat Developers Workshop, Interplanetary Small Satellite Conference, and the Small Satellite Conference. A few examples of the information we recorded and compiled were presenter names and affiliations, presentation topic, and mission progress status. Ultimately, we reviewed roughly 600 presentations between the three conferences and the data obtained therein form the basis of our trend assessment. The paper focuses on trends interpreted through the assessment of key elements available in the content of each presentation to include: SmallSat mission developers, subsystem developments and the expanded scope for small satellite destinations. Data was generalized using various forms of analysis depending on the type of information being assessed. In the end, we achieved our goal of reducing the content to its key points and major takeaways from the conference proceedings. In this presentation, the observed trends in data and our findings will be discussed. First, we will cover changes in presentation topics by categorizing them as either: science, technology, science/technology, or other. Our next topic will be about the agencies and organizations at the forefront of small satellite research and development. The following section will explain trends in subsystem developments for telecommunications, propulsion, power, and thermal management. Further discussion will highlight how the scope of interplanetary spaceflight has expanded since 2017 as new small spacecraft missions venture beyond low-Earth orbit into deep space exploration. And finally, we will observe what information was lacking in archived presentations which included but not limited to: mission’s funding source, presentation focus area, and software used.

Small Satellites↗
NASA NTRS2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using MERRA-2 re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000-2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CA), i.e., organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC), to the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°-35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°-120°E, 55°-70°N). Here, carbonaceous aerosols are transported upward from the surface to the LS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equator ward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the [ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

interdecadal trends↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Homogenized Ground-Based and Profile Ozone Datasets From the TOAR-II/HEGIFTOM Project: Methods and Station Trends

Within the framework of the second phase of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR-II), it was recognized that an essential first step for deriving accurate trends from the ground-based networks that monitor ozone in the free troposphere is putting the measurements on the same basis with respect to absolute references and processing methods. The relevant procedures are referred to as “harmonization” or “homogenization”. The TOAR II working group, “HEGIFTOM” (Harmonization and Evaluation of Ground-based Instruments for Free-Tropospheric Ozone Measurements), has carried out harmonization for five types of network (Figure below) instruments (mid-1990s to 2020): ozonesondes, commercial aircraft IAGOS landing/takeoff profiles, Fourier-Transform Infrared spectrometer (FTIR), tropospheric Lidar, and Brewer/Dobson Umkehr. First, we summarize the homogenization effort for each network that provides new quality-assessed ozone profile or segment (partial column) data sets, including uncertainty estimates and quality flags. Second, with the HEGIFTOM datasets forming the basis for a global assessment of tropospheric ozone column trends, results derived with various trend detection algorithms will be presented. The ultimate goal is evaluation of the consistency of the calculated trends among different techniques at selected stations and/or regions.

ozone↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and meteorological drivers of extreme daily reservoir evaporation events in the western United States

Extreme daily evaporation from reservoir surfaces can lead to significant short-term water losses, affecting water quality, water supply, and reservoir operation strategies. Historical trends in daily reservoir evaporation events have eluded the scientific and operational communities, largely due to a lack of long-term, consistent data record. This study quantifies trends in extreme daily reservoir evaporation events at 165 major reservoirs located in the western U.S. Here, we use the place-based energy balance and aerodynamic Daily Lake Evaporation Model (DLEM) driven by multiple meteorological data products (RTMA, gridMET, Daymet) to estimate daily evaporation rates at these reservoirs from 1981 to 2022. The results—while are based on different meteorological forcing datasets—consistently indicate that the California, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande hydrologic regions are more prone to higher daily evaporation extremes. Compared to the rest of western U.S, these three regions also experience a more pronounced increasing trend in the annual maximum daily evaporation rate, at about 0.3 mm day -1 decade -1 during 1981-2022. The results show that heat and dryness are the main drivers to the increasing trend of extreme evaporation, while extreme wind speed is the primary contributor to exceptionally high daily evaporation events across all regions. This phenomenon is particularly prominent in the arid Lower Colorado region, but less significant in the cold and humid Pacific Northwest region. We also find that the correlation between extreme wind speed and extreme evaporation degrades as the time scale increases from daily, to monthly and seasonal. Our findings have strong implications for the pattern and distribution of extreme evaporation events at the western U.S. reservoirs, and illustrate how various drivers influence extreme evaporation across different time scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s "Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends" summarizes recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for: -Average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues -Utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs -Retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources The report also includes qualitative case studies highlighting recent and/or regionally-specific issues contributing significantly to retail electricity price trends

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1973

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Jensen, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of Sudden Commencements (SC) and Sudden Impulses SI

Based on world data for the period 1 January 1955 to 31 December 1968, reports of 894 SC cases and 2152 SI cases were collected. A study was made of the diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of their appearances. It is shown that the diurnal trend is pronounced for all events with a maximum at (06-8)h universal time. The diurnal trend for SC in the resultant period is more pronounced. The seasonal trend in incidence of appearances of SC and SI is absent. Thus, geomagnetic disturbances of both SC and SI are monitored by world time. These results lead to the conclusion that the presence or absence of SC and SI during geomagnetic storms is determined not only by the nature of the corpuscular flux, the presence of shock waves and tangential discontinuities, but also by purely terrestrial conditions.

Nesmyanovich, E. I.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Analyses of atmospheric extinction data obtained by astronomers. I - A time-trend analysis of data with internal accidental errors obtained at four observatories

Long-term time-trend analysis was performed on astronomical atmospheric extinction data in wideband UBV and various narrow-band systems recorded at Cerro Tololo, Kitt Peak, Lick, and McDonald observatories. All of the data had to be transformed into uniform monochromatic extinction data before trend analysis could be performed. The paper describes the various reduction techniques employed. The time-trend analysis was then carried out by the method of least squares. A special technique, called 'histogram shaping', was employed to adjust for the fact that the errors of the reduced monochromatic extinction data were not essentially Gaussian. On the assumption that there are no compensatory background and local extinction changes, the best values obtained for extinction trends due to background aerosol changes during the years 1960 to 1972 are 0.006 + or - 0.013 (rms) and 0.009 + or - 0.009 (rms) stellar magnitudes per air mass per decade in the blue and yellow wavelength regions, respectively.

Taylor, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Oxidant and precursor trends in the metropolitan Los Angeles region

This paper describes recent historical trends in oxidant and precursors in the Los Angeles region. Control strategies and basinwide emission trends for nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons are documented year by year from 1965 to 1974. Trends in the geographic distribution of emissions are illustrated by computing net percentage emission changes over the decade for individual counties. The changes in emissions are compared with changes in ambient precursor concentrations and oxidant concentrations. We find that many of the changes in monitored air quality can be explained by trends in both total emissions and the spatial distribution of emissions.

Trijonis, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Linear trends in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric geopotential height and temperature patterns

Gridded National Meteorological Center data for 500 mb geopotential height and 300-500 mb and 500-700 mb thickness for the period 1951-1978 are subjected to linear trend analyses. The analyses are carried out for each calendar month. Significant geographical and seasonal distributions of cooling and warming patterns are found. An atmospheric cooling trend over the North Pacific during the winter months is seen in a region where oceanic cooling has also been observed, but planetary-wave adjustments rather than ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms appear to be dominant in the atmospheric cooling on climatic time scales. Consistently large temperature trends are also seen over the continent of Asia. Comparisons between thickness trends in the layer 300-500 mb and those in the layer 500-700 mb reveal pronounced patterns of stabilization and destabilization.

Reiter, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effects of fractional crystallization and cumulus processes on mineral composition trends of some lunar and terrestrial rock series

A plot of Mg of mafic minerals versus An of plagioclase in cumulate rocks from various lunar and terrestrial rock series shows each series to have a distinct curvilinear trend. The slopes of these trends vary from nearly vertical in the case of lunar anorthosites and Mg-norites to nearly horizontal in the case of gabbros from the mid-Atlantic ridge. Calculations based upon known major element partitioning between mafic minerals, plagioclase and subalkaline basaltic liquids indicate that fractional crystallization coupled with cotectic accumulation of mafic minerals and plagioclase will produce mineral composition trends on the Mg versus An diagram with slopes greater than 1 for cases where An is approximately greater than Mg. Furthermore, fractional crystallization of basaltic magmas with alkali concentrations approaching zero will produce near vertical Mg versus An trends. Therefore, the steep slopes of the lunar rock series are consistent with relatively simple fractionation processes. The relatively flat slope of mineral compositions from gabbros collected from the mid-Atlantic ridge at 26 deg N is inconsistent with simple fractionation processes, and calculations show that periodic refilling of a fractionating magma chamber with picritic magma cannot simply explain this flat slope either.

Longhi, J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Bomber design trends

Some basic trends in bomber aircraft are traced from the pre-World War I era to the present time. The historic review includes bombers of many countries. The primary discussion, however, will be based on U.S. bomber programs and, to the extent possible, on USSR bomber programs. The bomber aircraft will be examined in terms of performance and mission capability.Characteristics will include power or thrust loading, wing loading, maximum speed, cruising speed, weight and weight distribution, and payload. These trends can be used to indicate the rationale for certain design types. Performance characteristics can be used to indicate potential mission objectives. The overall design trends should be useful in revealing the influence of mission objectives, the influence of advanced technology and, in turn, may be useful in predicting likely future trends.

Spearman, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design trends for Army/Air Force airplanes in the United States

Some design trends in Army/Air Force airplane systems in the U.S. are traced from the pre-World War 2 era to the present time. Various types of aircraft systems are reviewed with a view toward noting design features that were used. Some observations concerning the design trends indicate that some may be driven by advanced technology and some by a need for new mission requirements. In addition, it is noted that some design trends are evolutionary and result in an extension of service life or utility of existing systems. In other cases the design trends may be more revolutionary with the intent of creating a system with a new capability. Some examples are included of designs that did not proceed to production for reasons that sometimes were technical and sometimes were not.

Spearman, M. Leroy↗
NASA NTRS1989

Post World War II trends in tropical Pacific surface trades

Multidecadal time series of surface winds from central tropical Pacific islands are used to compute trends in the trade winds between the end of WWII and 1985. Over this period, averaged over the whole region, there is no statistically significant trend in speed or zonal or meridional wind (or pseudostress). However, there is some tendency, within a few degrees of the equator, toward weakening of the easterlies and increased meridional flow toward the equator. Anomalous conditions subsequent to the 1972-73 ENSO event make a considerable contribution to the long-term trends. The period 1974-80 has been noted previously to have been anomalous, and trends over that period are sharply greater than those over the longer records.

Harrison, D. E.↗