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At least 163 records · Page 9

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What Does The PAMELA Antiproton Spectrum Tell Us About Dark Matter?

Measurements of the cosmic ray antiproton spectrum can be used to search for contributions from annihilating dark matter and to constrain the dark matter annihilation cross section. Depending on the assumptions made regarding cosmic ray propagation in the Galaxy, such constraints can be quite stringent. We revisit this topic, utilizing a set of propagation models fit to the cosmic ray boron, carbon, oxygen and beryllium data. We derive upper limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section and find that when the cosmic ray propagation parameters are treated as nuisance parameters (as we argue is appropriate), the resulting limits are significantly less stringent than have been previously reported. We also note (as have several previous groups) that simple GALPROP-like diffusion-reacceleration models predict a spectrum of cosmic ray antiprotons that is in good agreement with PAMELA's observations above ~ 5 GeV, but that significantly underpredict the flux at lower energies. Although the complexity of modeling cosmic ray propagation at GeV-scale energies makes it difficult to determine the origin of this discrepancy, we consider the possibility that the excess antiprotons are the result of annihilating dark matter. Suggestively, we find that this excess is best fit for m(DM) ~ 35 GeV and σ v ~ 10(−)(26) cm(3)/s (to bbar b), in good agreement with the mass and cross section previously shown to be required to generate the gamma-ray excess observed from the Galactic Center.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗

Effective action approach to cosmological perturbations in dark energy and modified gravity

In light of upcoming observations modelling perturbations in dark energy and modified gravity models has become an important topic of research. We develop an effective action to construct the components of the perturbed dark energy momentum tensor which appears in the perturbed generalized gravitational field equations, δG{sup μν} = 8πGδT{sup μν}+δU{sup μν} for linearized perturbations. Our method does not require knowledge of the Lagrangian density of the dark sector to be provided, only its field content. The method is based on the fact that it is only necessary to specify the perturbed Lagrangian to quadratic order and couples this with the assumption of global statistical isotropy of spatial sections to show that the model can be specified completely in terms of a finite number of background dependent functions. We present our formalism in a coordinate independent fashion and provide explicit formulae for the perturbed conservation equation and the components of δU{sup μ}{sub ν} for two explicit generic examples: (i) the dark sector does not contain extra fields, L = L(g{sub μν}) and (ii) the dark sector contains a scalar field and its first derivative L = L(g{sub μν},φ,∇{sub μ}φ). We discuss how the formalism can be applied to modified gravity models containing derivatives of the metric, curvature tensors, higher derivatives of the scalar fields and vector fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Developing A Laser Shockwave Model For Characterizing Diffusion Bonded Interfaces

12. Other advances in QNDE and related topics: Preferred Session Laser-ultrasonics Developing A Laser Shockwave Model For Characterizing Diffusion Bonded Interfaces 41st Annual Review of Progress in Quantitative Nondestructive Evaluation Conference QNDE Conference July 20-25, 2014 Boise Centre 850 West Front Street Boise, Idaho 83702 James A. Smith, Jeffrey M. Lacy, Barry H. Rabin, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID ABSTRACT: The US National Nuclear Security Agency has a Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) which is assigned with reducing the worldwide use of high-enriched uranium (HEU). A salient component of that initiative is the conversion of research reactors from HEU to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuels. An innovative fuel is being developed to replace HEU. The new LEU fuel is based on a monolithic fuel made from a U-Mo alloy foil encapsulated in Al-6061 cladding. In order to complete the fuel qualification process, the laser shock technique is being developed to characterize the clad-clad and fuel-clad interface strengths in fresh and irradiated fuel plates. The Laser Shockwave Technique (LST) is being investigated to characterize interface strength in fuel plates. LST is a non-contact method that uses lasers for the generation and detection of large amplitude acoustic waves to characterize interfaces in nuclear fuel plates. However the deposition of laser energy into the containment layer on specimen’s surface is intractably complex. The shock wave energy is inferred from the velocity on the backside and the depth of the impression left on the surface from the high pressure plasma pulse created by the shock laser. To help quantify the stresses and strengths at the interface, a finite element model is being developed and validated by comparing numerical and experimental results for back face velocities and front face depressions with experimental results. This paper will report on initial efforts to develop a finite element model for laser shock.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Optimal vocabulary selection approaches for privacy-preserving deep NLP model training for information extraction and cancer epidemiology

With the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques for biomedical informatics, security and privacy concerns over the data and subject identities have also become an important issue and essential research topic. Without intentional safeguards, machine learning models may find patterns and features to improve task performance that are associated with private personal information. The privacy vulnerability of deep learning models for information extraction from medical textural contents needs to be quantified since the models are exposed to private health information and personally identifiable information. The objective of the study is to quantify the privacy vulnerability of the deep learning models for natural language processing and explore a proper way of securing patients’ information to mitigate confidentiality breaches. The target model is the multitask convolutional neural network for information extraction from cancer pathology reports, where the data for training the model are from multiple state population-based cancer registries. This study proposes the following schemes to collect vocabularies from the cancer pathology reports; (a) words appearing in multiple registries, and (b) words that have higher mutual information. We performed membership inference attacks on the models in high-performance computing environments. The comparison outcomes suggest that the proposed vocabulary selection methods resulted in lower privacy vulnerability while maintaining the same level of clinical task performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HPC Analytics of Fused Thermal Plants Data to Optimize Operating Envelope

In this project, ORNL extensively reviewed the ORAP RAM data, and it guided us to develop machine learning models that can predict time to next failures and forecast failure trends, which will be useful for optimizing power plant operation strategies. More specifically, we trained multiple random forest models and evaluated the model accuracy to validate with 10+ years of historical data. In addition, we implemented a web-based graphical user interface system for the models to show how our models can be used in more intuitive ways. This proof of concept allowed exploration of model use with power plant operators in mind. Developed machine learning models will be helpful for managing risks, planning maintenance and operation, ultimately reducing the down time and increasing the service hours. For future work, there are several interesting research topics including but not limited to model enhancement, creating synergy with traditional failure modeling approaches, and data-driven actionable recommendation and suggestions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in the SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. Finally, we hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Toward high efficiency at high temperatures: Recent progress and prospects on InGaN-Based solar cells

III-nitride InGaN material is an ideal candidate for the fabrication of high performance photovoltaic (PV) solar cells, especially for high-temperature applications. Over the past decade, significant efforts have been made to improve the PV performance of InGaN-based solar cells. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive review of the recent developments in InGaN-based solar cells. The topics of discussion include theoretical modeling, material epitaxy, device engineering, and high-temperature measurement. Particularly, we highlight subjects such as substrate technology, and properties that are unique to InGaN materials such as polarization control and their positive thermal coefficient. To date, outstanding high-temperature InGaN-based solar cells with quantum efficiency approaching 80% at 450 °C have been demonstrated. In conclusion, future innovations in epitaxy science, device engineering, and integration methods are required to further advance the efficiency and expand the applications of InGaN-based solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The modeling of delayed-onset Rayleigh-Taylor and transition to mixing in laser-driven HED experiments

In this paper, we discuss simulations, along with a benchmarking experiment, performed using the xRAGE code which demonstrate the ability of a laser model to predict laser-driven, high-energy-density shock hydrodynamics with good fidelity. This directly contributes to our ability to model hydrodynamic-instability dynamics produced by a laser drive typical of those available at OMEGA, OMEGA-EP, NIF, and similar facilities. In particular, we show how the laser model is essential for predicting deceleration-phase Rayleigh-Taylor arising from laser turn-off. We do this using the experimental case of a seeded single-mode perturbation. Then, we turn to a seeded multimode perturbation to show how the above result permits us to access the modeling of hydrodynamic mixing, a topic of interest for future work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Study of ablation and shock generation across three orders of magnitude of laser intensity with 100 ps laser pulses

The laser ablation and subsequent shock generation in solid targets plays an important role in a variety of research topics from equation of state models for materials to inertial confinement fusion. One of the long-standing issues is the knowledge of ablation depth in the picosecond time regime. Here, we report on a direct technique for determining the ablation depth in aluminum using x-ray diffraction data from Linac Coherent Light Source at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. This technique gives a direct measurement of the shock wave propagation in the bulk target, enabling an ability to discern early timescale physics from late timescale effects not available in postmortem analysis. We find that the ablation depths only vary by 0.2 μm across three orders of magnitude of laser intensity, while the pressure increased by a factor of 10 following a square root dependence on laser pulse energy. We further observe that the ablation depth in this intensity range (10 11 –10 13 W/cm 2 in intensity, corresponding to 0.8–80 J/cm 2 in fluence) cannot be modeled by a universal scaling law, given the complexity of the mechanisms governing laser ablation in this intensity regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On the possibility of detecting local refractive index changes in optically transparent objects by means of a point nanoantenna attached to a fibre microaxicon

It is shown theoretically that the use of the spectral registration of the dipole local plasmon resonance (DLPR) displacement in a single spherical gold nanoantenna, placed near the surface of a homogeneous dielectric medium, allows the mapping of extremely small variations (to 5 × 10{sup -4}) of the refractive index (RI) of this medium. Using the quasi-static approximation, we have developed an analytic model that allows evaluation of the spectral displacement of the nanoantenna DLPR depending on the variation in the medium refractive index. The point probe based on a fibre microaxicon with a gold spherical nanoantenna attached to its top is proposed that allows practical implementation of the developed RI scanning method. Numerical calculations of the probe characteristics using the time-domain finite-difference method are presented, and it is shown that for the case of a gold spherical nanoantenna of small size, comparable with the skin layer thickness in gold, the relative spectral shift value is in good agreement with the results obtained by using the developed analytic model. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An introduction to optimal power flow: Theory, formulation, and examples

The set of optimization problems in electric power systems engineering known collectively as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) is one of the most practically important and well-researched subfields of constrained nonlinear optimization. OPF has enjoyed a rich history of research, innovation, and publication since its debut five decades ago. Nevertheless, entry into OPF research is a daunting task for the uninitiated--both due to the sheer volume of literature and because OPF's ubiquity within the electric power systems community has led authors to assume a great deal of prior knowledge that readers unfamiliar with electric power systems may not possess. This article provides an introduction to OPF from an operations research perspective; it describes a complete and concise basis of knowledge for beginning OPF research. The discussion is tailored for the operations researcher who has experience with nonlinear optimization but little knowledge of electrical engineering. Topics covered include power systems modeling, the power flow equations, typical OPF formulations, and common OPF extensions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Striations in moderate pressure dc driven nitrogen glow discharge

Plasma stratification has been studied for more than a century. Despite the many experimental studies reported on this topic, theoretical analyses and numerical modeling of this phenomenon have been mostly limited to rare gases. In this work, a one-dimensional fluid model with detailed kinetics of electrons and vibrationally excited molecules is employed to simulate moderate-pressure (i.e. a few Torrs) dc discharge in nitrogen in a 15.5 cm long tube of radius 0.55 cm. The model also considers ambipolar diffusion to account for the radial loss of ions and electrons to the wall. The proposed model predicts self-excited standing striations in nitrogen for a range of discharge currents. The impact of electron transport parameters and reaction rates obtained from a solution of local two-term and a multi-term Boltzmann equation on the predictions are assessed. In-depth kinetic analysis indicates that the striations result from the undulations in electron temperature caused due to the interaction between ionization and vibrational reactions. Furthermore, the vibrationally excited molecules associated with the lower energy levels are found to influence nitrogen plasma stratification and the striation pattern strongly. A balance between ionization processes and electron energy transport allows the formation of the observed standing striations. Simulations were conducted for a range of discharge current densities from ~0.018 to 0.080 mA cm –2 , for an operating pressure of 0.7 Torr. Parametric studies show that the striation length decreases with increasing discharge current. Furthermore, the predictions from the model are compared against experimental measurements and are found to agree favorably.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Request for Funding for the 2016 Air & Waste Management Association Visibility Conference on Atmospheric Optics:Aerosols, Visibility, and the Radiative Balance

This international conference will provide a technical forum on advances in the scientific understanding of the effects of aerosols on urban, regional, continental, and global-scale haze and the radiative balance. The conference will take a multipronged approach and address scientific topics (e.g., related to measurements, modeling, etc.) as well as regulatory and policy issues. There will be sessions on black and brown carbon, as recent research has shown the importance of these particles for radiative forcing. In addition, there will be sessions related to the synergistic and increasing concerns of the effects of atmospheric nitrogen and carbonaceous material on haze, climate change, and nitrogen deposition on ecosystems. Conference learning will be enhanced with a half day excursion and hikes in Grand Teton National Park and a Night Sky Program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supplement to M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0

Measurement and verification (M&V) are key to determining and confirming the continued operation of, and savings associated with, performance-based contracts. The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) updates these guidelines to reflect the evolution of M&V to incorporate industry best practices and ensure that savings from these performance-based projects are properly planned, communicated, and realized. FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Federal Energy Projects Version 3.0 in 2008. This document was developed with input from industry-government working groups, previous M&V guideline authors, and national laboratory subject matter experts. The document provided the methods and guidelines, with a focus on federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). When FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0 in 2015, FEMP expanded the intended audience to include anyone (energy managers, procurement officers, and contractors) involved in implementing performance-based contracts. The streamlined M&V Guidelines Version 4.0 provided the procedures and guidelines needed to quantify savings resulting from installing energy-efficient equipment, water conservation, improved operation and maintenance (O&M), renewable energy, and cogeneration projects with a performance-based contract; however, it removed some of the associated details on topics such as developing regression models and sampling plans. The details and information provided in M&V Guidelines v. 3.0 are still pertinent to M&V for performance-based contracts. The objective is to keep FEMP M&V version 4.0 condensed, providing the reference document for specifying M&V methods and procedures and a resource for developing project-specific M&V plans; this supplement provides additional details. The content of this supplement has been updated to include pertinent revisions between M&V version 3.0 and M&V version 4.0 by providing details and updating the content to ensure relevancy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗