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157 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

What Influences Climate and Glacier Change in the Southwestern China?

The subject of climate change in the areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of available water resources from their mountain glaciers. Many of these glaciers over the region have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable. Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration on their shrinkage. However, the causes of the glacier meltings are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. However, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable the future prediction on glacier changes.

Yasunari, Teppei J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗
NASA NTRS2021

Elevation Dependent Warming in the Eastern Siberian Arctic

There is evidence for elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in many mountainous regions, including the Alps, Rockies, and Tibetan Plateau, all of which are in mid-latitudes. Most studies finding evidence of EDW indicate that both recent decadal and future projected warming rates are greater at higher elevations. In this study, we examine the roles of Arctic amplification and elevation on future warming rates in winter and summer in eastern Siberia (50-70°N; 80-180°E). This region includes four major river basins that flow into the Arctic Ocean (the Yenisei, Lena, Indigirka, and Kolyma) and intersects with mountain ranges in northern Mongolia and eastern Siberia. We analyse projected 21st century temperature projections using a six-member ensemble of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) with a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2. Projected warming rates in winter for the 21st century are dominated by Arctic amplification, which leads to significantly larger warming rates at higher latitudes, with latitudinal gradients of about 0.16°C per degree latitude. In summer, the latitudinal gradient is near zero (0.02°C per degree of latitude). Within specific latitude bands, we also find EDW. However, unlike most mid-latitude locations where warming rates are greater at higher elevations, we find that future warming rates are smaller at higher elevations for this high-latitude region, particularly during winter, with statistically significant rates varying between -0.70 and -2.46 °C/km for different 5° latitude bands. The decrease in warming rates with elevation in winter at the highest latitudes is primarily attributed to strong inversions and changes in the lapse rate as free-air temperatures warm at slower rates than surface temperatures. In summer, the elevation dependence is much weaker than in winter but still statistically significant and negative in all but the most northern latitude band with values ranging between -0.10 and -0.56 °C/km.

elevation-dependent warming (EDW)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Identification of Absorbing Aerosol Types at a Site in the Northern Edge of Indo-Gangetic Plain and a Polluted Valley in the Foothills of the Central Himalayas

Identification of atmospheric aerosol types and characterization of absorbing aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data collected during 2013–2014 over two sites in Nepal: Lumbini in the northernmost part of central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and Kathmandu Valley in foothills of the central Himalayas, have been conducted in the present study. The relationship between four aerosol parameters; Extinction Angstrom Exponent (EAE), Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and Real Refractive Index (RRI) was analyzed to study the aerosol types. This resulted in the identification of two types of aerosols concerning their origin: biomass burning and urban/industrial mix. Furthermore, to understand the absorbing aerosol types, the relationship between aerosol size parameters; Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Angstrom Exponent (AE), and aerosol absorption characteristics; SSA and AAE were investigated. In regards to the absorbing aerosol types, ‘Mostly BC’ was the dominant absorbing aerosol, over both sites, with comparatively negligible contribution from other absorbing aerosol types such as dust. The aerosol subtypes obtained from satellite-borne CALIPSO instrument supported the results derived from the AERONET data. The CALIPSO images also indicated that the aerosols over the foothills of the Himalayas could extend to the height of >5 km above the ground, which could be transported towards the Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region with sensitive ecosystems. The multi-sites based study of long-term records is required to elucidate the nature and trends of aerosols in the HTP region and any perturbation to the atmospheric environment and other environments in this region.

Aerosol types↗
NASA NTRS2021

The impacts of warming on rapidly retreating high-altitude, low-latitude glaciers and ice core-derived climate records

Alpine glaciers in the low- and mid-latitudes respond more quickly than large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and radiation. Many high-altitude glaciers are monitored by ground observations, aerial photography, and satellite-borne sensors. Regardless of latitude and elevation, nearly all nonpolar glaciers and ice caps are undergoing mass loss, which compromises the records of past climate preserved within them. Almost without exception, the retreat of these ice fields is persistent, and a very important driver is the recent warming of the tropical troposphere and oceans. Here we present data on the decrease in the surface area of four glaciers from low- to mid-latitude mountainous regions: the Andes of Peru and northern Bolivia, equatorial east Africa, equatorial Papua, Indonesia, and the western Tibetan Plateau. Climate records based on oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) measured in ice cores drilled from several glaciers in these regions reveal that the records from elevations below ~6000 m above sea level have been substantially modified by seasonal melting and the movement of meltwater through porous upper firn layers. Fortunately, δ18O records recovered from higher altitude sites still contain well-preserved seasonal variations to the surface; however, the projected increase in the rate of atmospheric warming implies that climate records from higher elevation glaciers will eventually also be degraded. A long-term ice core collection program on the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, Earth's largest tropical ice cap, illustrates that the deterioration of its climate record is concomitant with the increase in mid-troposphere temperatures. The melting ice and resulting growth of proglacial lakes presents an imminent hazard to nearby communities. The accelerating melting of glaciers, if sustained, ensures the eventual loss of unique and irreplaceable climate histories, as well as profound economic, agricultural, and cultural impacts on local communities.

Low-latitude glaciers↗
NASA NTRS2022

Soil Moisture Estimation in South Asia via Assimilation of SMAP Retrievals

A soil moisture retrieval assimilation framework is implemented across South Asia in an attempt to improve regional soil moisture estimation as well as to provide a consistent regional soil moisture dataset. This study aims to improve the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture estimates by assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) near-surface soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. The Noah-MP (v4.0.1) land surface model is run within the NASA Land Information System software framework to model regional land surface processes. NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) provide the meteorological boundary conditions to the land surface model. Assimilation is carried out using both cumulative distribution function (CDF)-corrected (DA-CDF) and uncorrected SMAP retrievals (DA-NoCDF). CDF matching is applied to correct the statistical moments of the SMAP soil moisture retrieval relative to the land surface model. Comparison of assimilated and model-only soil moisture estimates with publicly available in situ measurements highlights the relative improvement in soil moisture estimates by assimilating SMAP retrievals. Across the Tibetan Plateau, DA-NoCDF reduced the mean bias and RMSE by 8.4 % and 9.4 %, even though assimilation only occurred during less than 10 % of the study period due to frozen (or partially frozen) soil conditions. The best goodness-of-fit statistics were achieved for the IMERG DA-NoCDF soil moisture experiment. The general lack of publicly available in situ measurements across irrigated areas limited a domain-wide direct model validation. However, comparison with regional irrigation patterns suggested correction of biases associated with an unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon (i.e., anthropogenic influence via irrigation) as a result of SMAP soil moisture retrieval assimilation. The greatest sensitivity to assimilation was observed in cropland areas. Improvements in soil moisture potentially translate into improved spatiotemporal patterns of modeled evapotranspiration, although limited influence from soil moisture assimilation was observed on modeled processes within the carbon cycle such as gross primary production. Improvement in fine-scale modeled estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals highlights the potential of this approach for soil moisture estimation over data-scarce regions.

Jawairia Ahmad↗
NASA NTRS2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using MERRA-2 re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000-2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CA), i.e., organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC), to the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°-35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°-120°E, 55°-70°N). Here, carbonaceous aerosols are transported upward from the surface to the LS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equator ward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the [ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

interdecadal trends↗
NASA NTRS2024

Connecting Global Modes of Variability to Climate in High Mountain Asia

Oscillations in global modes of variability (MoV) form global teleconnections that affect regional climate variability and modify the potential for severe and damaging weather conditions. Un-derstanding the link between certain MoVs and regional climate can improve the ability to more accurately predict environmental conditions that impact human life and health. In this study, we explore the connection between different MoVs, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eurasian teleconnection, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (Nino34), with winter and summer climate in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, including geopotential height at 250 hPa (z250), 2-m air temperature (T2M), total precipitation (PRECTOT), and fractional snow cover area (fSCA). Relationships are explored for the same monthly period between the MoVs and the climate variables, and also using a lagged correlation analysis to investigate whether any relationship exists at different time lags. We find that T2M has a negative correlation with the Eurasian teleconnection in the Inner Tibetan Plateau and Central China in both winter and summer and a positive correlation in Western China in summer. PRECTOT has a positive correlation with all MoV in most regions in winter, especially with the IOD, and a negative correlation in summer, especially with the Eurasian teleconnection. Snow cover in winter is positively correlated with most indices throughout many regions in HMA, likely due to wintertime precipitation also being positively correlated with most indices. Generally, the AO and NAO show similar correlation patterns with all climate variables, espe-cially in the winter, possibly due to their oscillations being so similar. Furthermore, the AO and NAO are shown to be less significant in explaining the variation in HMA climate compared to other MoVs such as the Eurasian teleconnection. Overall, our results identify different time-windows and specific regions within HMA that exhibit high correlation between climate and MoVs, which might offer additional predictability of the MoVs as well as of climate and weather patterns in HMA and throughout the globe.

teleconnections↗
NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Soil Moisture Retrievals Using SMAP and ELBARA-III Measurements in a Tibetan Meadow Ecosystem

This study presents results evaluating retrievals of liquid water content for both thawed and frozen soils based on simultaneous SMAP and ELBARA-III measurements in a Tibetan meadow ecosystem. A good agreement is found between time series of the SMAP and ELBARA-III T(sub B(sup P)) measurements (R≥0.87). Differences noted between the two data sets are linked to distinct liquid water content variations found in the specific footprints, and the SMAP measurements are better explained by the in-situ liquid water content. Furthermore, the in-situ liquid water content shows better agreements with both SMAP and ELBARA-III measured T(sub B(sup P)) at horizontal polarization in the cold season, while the measurements at vertical polarization are more consistently varying with the liquid water content for the warm season. With the implementation of new vegetation and surface roughness parameterizations, the dynamics of in-situ liquid water content are better reproduced by corresponding retrievals for both thawed and frozen soils, leading to the reduction of the unbiased root mean-square error (ubRMSE) by more than 31 % in comparison to these retrievals using SMAP default parameterizations. Notably, the single channel algorithm configured with the new parameterizations using SMAP measured vertical polarization during the ascending overpass provides the best liquid water content retrievals with an ubRMSE of 0.035 cu m -cu m that outperforms the SMAP mission specification.

L-band microwave radiometry↗