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DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Limits of Machine Learning-Assisted Raman Spectroscopy in Classification of Biological Samples

Machine learning (ML)-assisted Raman spectroscopy has become a powerful analytical tool for the classification and identification of analytes; however, technical challenges impacting its detection accuracy have not been thoroughly investigated. This study explores experimental factors affecting classification performance. Among the evaluated ML models, ML algorithms show minimal impact on classification accuracy. Instead, experimental factors, including spectral similarity between tested samples and data quality, dominate detection performance. Increases in spectral noise and spectral similarity significantly reduce classification accuracy. In well-controlled samples with low experimental noise, ML-assisted Raman spectroscopy can discriminate lipid mixtures with a composition difference of 1.85 mol %. To assess the effect of biological heterogeneity, we analyzed single-cell Raman spectra from Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains carrying single, double, or triple gene mutations. Intrinsic cell-to-cell variability introduced substantial spectral differences, severely reducing the accuracy of multiclass classification of these genetically similar strains at the single-cell level. Averaging Raman spectra across multiple cells improved classification accuracy by reducing this spectral variability. We also assess the effectiveness of transfer learning across different Raman spectrometers, specifically by applying an ML model trained on one instrument to another Raman spectrometer. Transfer learning can be improved with proper instrument calibration, highlighting the importance of instrument standardization. Overall, our results demonstrate that data quality and spectral similarity are the primary bottlenecks in ML-assisted Raman spectroscopy. Careful attention to sample preparation, data acquisition, measurement conditions, and instrument calibration is critical to achieving robust and reliable classification performance.

Fungi↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating adaptation and resilience into an integrated watershed and coral reef management plan

Changing environmental conditions are forcing natural resource managers and communities to adapt their strategies to account for global shifts in precipitation, temperature, sea level and more, all of which are occurring in addition to local human impacts. Adapting to threats from climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management through the development of forward-looking “climate-smart” goals and strategies. Here we present a proof-of-concept application of a decision-support tool to help design climate-smart management actions for the watershed and coral reef management plan for Guánica Bay watershed in southwest Puerto Rico. We also explore the connection between adaptation planning and coral reef resilience, using a recently developed Puerto Rico-wide reef resilience assessment. In the first phase of the study, we used the publicly available Adaptation Design Tool to draft initial climate-smart versions of twelve proposed management actions. In the second phase, two actions (dirt road management on steep slopes, and coral reef restoration) were further refined through consultations with local experts to make more detailed design adjustments; this included the option to use information from the coral reef resilience assessment to inform design improvements. The first phase resulted in moderately detailed assessments that broadly accounted for anticipated direct and indirect effects of climate change on the planned management actions. The second phase resulted in more site-specific technical assessments and additional important design details. The expert panel charged with discussing climate-smart reef restoration around Guánica used the reef resilience assessment to guide discussion of reef restoration, highlighting the importance of having such information available for adaptation planning. This study demonstrates how climate change impacts can be effectively incorporated into a management plan at the most granular level of planning and how a structured, formalized process can be as valuable as the resulting adaptation information.

Gibbs, David A. (ORCID:0000000173898569)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements (i.e., high, medium, and low) performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area-use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

life cycle analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physical solvents and techno-economic analysis for pre-combustion CO 2 capture: A review

In this manuscript we review the use, development, and economic performance of physical solvents for pre-combustion CO 2 capture from high pressure H 2 rich syngas streams. Commercially available physical solvents are presented, followed by an assessment of the ideal properties that are important for development of novel solvents for CO 2 capture from high-pressure syngas streams. To compare the technical and economic performance of traditional and novel physical solvents, a review of the methods, assumptions and models used in techno-economic analysis (TEA) studies was conducted. It was found that, although some novel solvents show promising technical performance in the laboratory (e.g., high CO 2 absorption capacity and low vapor pressure), other issues (e.g., solvent viscosity and cost) may limit their industrial applications. Process simulations were useful tools for modeling the technical performance of processes using traditional and novel solvents. However, model predictions are most reliable when the methods and correlations used to develop the process simulation are validated with representative experimental data, in particular highly accurate baseline models are required for fair comparison among physical solvents. The key inputs and assumptions in pre-combustion CO 2 capture TEAs have also been summarized. Some studies showed that the promising technical performance of novel physical solvents can be offset by the high and often unknown costs of these solvents. Future development of novel physical solvents for pre-combustion CO 2 capture will benefit from more studies that conduct in-depth techno-economic analysis, specifically with validated process simulations and transparent economic models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters: Preprint

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

industry support↗

DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Bioenergy Research: Opportunities and Challenges

The integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) with automated experimentation, genomics, biosystems design, and bioprocessing technologies is poised to revolutionize scientific investigation and, particularly, bioenergy research. To identify the opportunities and challenges in this emerging research area, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research program (BER) and Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) held a joint virtual workshop on AI/ML for Bioenergy Research (AMBER) on August 23–25, 2022. These interests have since been amplified in a September 2022 Executive Order, “Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Innovation for a Sustainable, Safe, and Secure U.S. Bioeconomy,” to promote a whole-of government approach to biotechnology development (White House 2022). Approximately 50 scientists with various backgrounds and expertise from academia, industry, and DOE national laboratories met to discuss the opportunities and challenges of AI/ML for bioenergy research. Workshop participants were tasked with assessing the potential for AI/ML and laboratory automation to advance biological understanding and engineering in general. They particularly examined how integrating AI/ML tools with laboratory automation could accelerate biosystems design and optimize biomanufacturing. Discussions included the data and computational infrastructure needed to augment biosystems design applications and the expertise and workforce development efforts urgently required to shift integrated systems toward bioenergy research more broadly. Participants discussed many existing and future applications of AI/ML for biosystems design ranging from enzymes to plants and microbes, microbiomes, and bioprocess development. They also identified three key categories of scientific and technical opportunities and challenges: high-quality data, AI/ML algorithms, and laboratory automation. Several main takeaways emerged from the workshop: 1. Numerous AI/ML and automated experimentation applications exist for a variety of DOE mission needs in energy and the environment; 2. Exemplary research grand challenges for which AI/ML could provide solutions include: building microbes and microbial communities to specifications, developing closed-loop autonomous design and control for biosystems design, and advancing scale-up and automation; 3. Lack of sufficient high-quality, annotated data hinders the development of AI/ML applications; 4. New and improved AI/ML tools are needed, particularly those meeting the specific needs of the BER and BETO research communities; 5. Trade-offs in performance, cost, and reliability exist between deploying commercially available versus building custom-developed instrumentation and software for automated or autonomous experimentation; translation of manual to automated or autonomous methods is often a nontrivial endeavor; 6. Training a new generation of young scientists who can develop and apply AI/ML tools is needed to solve long-standing scientific challenges in bioenergy research. The integration of AI/ML tools and automated experimentation represents a new data-driven research paradigm complementary to the traditional hypothesis-driven research paradigm. This paradigm accelerates design and optimization of biological systems and processes for a variety of DOE mission needs in energy and the environment. The AMBER workshop broadly explored the potential of this new paradigm for bioenergy research, of particular interest to BER and BETO, and identified key challenges and opportunities that DOE can address in the coming years by leveraging its unique capabilities and resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aquapv

This project brings together a multidisciplinary team to develop tools and analysis that will help U.S. industry accelerate deployment of floating PV on reservoirs and estuaries through producing: • A tool to assess potential environmental interactions of FPV on reservoirs and estuaries and thresholds for corresponding impacts. • A tailored FPV-specific techno-economic tool to guide users on financial performance and corresponding design considerations. • A synthesized tool, AquaPV, that combines the environmental and economic tools. • A set of case studies on an open-loop reservoir with a traditional hydropower plant (i.e., connected to a natural waterbody), closed-loop reservoir with a proposed pumped storage hydropower plant (i.e., manmade and disconnected from a natural waterbody), and a marine estuary (i.e., where a river meets the ocean), with an FPV system designed and modeled for each site. • A review of regulatory, environmental, and stakeholder opportunities and challenges to identify clear regulatory and environmental pathways to siting FPV on U.S. reservoirs. • A novel, high-fidelity geospatial resource assessment to estimate FPV technical potential on reservoirs in the United States.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fabricated ecosystem workshop: bridging laboratory to field science. Workshop report.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) scientists held a workshop at the DOE BER Genomic Sciences PI meeting on the use of Fabricated Ecosystems in Washington D.C. on February 25th, 2020. Ecosystem fabrication is an approach to creating controlled microbial, soil and plant ecologies within a laboratory setting that enable discovery and dissection of environmental variables, activities, and interactions. At Berkeley Lab, we are developing two systems which span spatial and temporal scales — the EcoFAB and the EcoPOD. The participants of the workshop discussed the potential applications and challenges of using fabricated ecosystems as tools to tackle BER-relevant scientific questions. Specifically, they identified (1) research challenges that would benefit from ready access to this infrastructure (2) identified and prioritized technical challenges that currently limit these systems and (3) discussed how to use them to bridge the gap between lab and field research. To ensure that the fabricated ecosystems , in particular the larger-scale EcoPODs, are of use to as much of the BER community as possible, the workshop participants made the following recommendations: 1. Produce publicly available datasets for a set of control variables. Use for benchmarking, and assessing reproducibility between systems. 2. Implement data standards. 3. Develop/leverage nano/micro sensors and in situ root imaging. 4. Encourage the development of interdisciplinary teams to develop EcoPOD experiments. 5. Develop fabricated ecosystems with size and complexity that sits between the EcoFAB and EcoPOD to accelerate use and access.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Essential Role of Nuclear Energy in Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Solutions

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net-zero, we need to reassess energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation highlights the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Nuclear Energy to Support Economy-wide Net-zero Solutions: Challenges and Opportunities

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving a Net-Zero Future: The Role of Nuclear Energy

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management are considered independently from meeting energy demands for industry and transportation. As we seek to eliminate emissions across all energy use sectors we need to reassess how energy demands are met. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, in addition to direct fuel use for transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to leverage all of the clean energy resources available. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of nuclear-driven IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation will highlight the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

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