Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “TERMS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recoverable vs Unrecoverable Voltage Losses and Long-Term Degradation Mechanisms in Anion Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells

Anion exchange membrane fuel cells (AEMFCs) have recently shown excellent progress in terms of their performance – e.g., achievable power and current density. However, very few AEMFCs have been demonstrated with the ability to operate for a long duration (>1000 h). In addition, it is unknown whether performance losses observed during operation are reversible, irreversible, or a combination of the two. In this study, a high-performance AEMFC operated continuously at 600 mA/cm 2 for 3600 h (150 days) at 80 °C with H 2 /O 2 reacting gases was demonstrated. Throughout testing, the electrochemical properties of the AEMFC were probed to provide information about performance degradation pathways and their degree of reversibility. It was found that a portion of the performance loss that occurs during AEMFC operation was due to suboptimal reaction conditions and can be recovered. At the end of the experiment, the cell was disassembled, and its structure and composition were evaluated at the nanoscale by aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The structure and composition of the electrode were compared to cells at the beginning of their operational life. It was found that the primary mechanism for long-term AEMFC performance loss was catalyst agglomeration. During the operational time, there was no evidence of significant polymer degradation, likely due to the high hydration state of the cell. By documenting the long-term changes in high-performing AEMFCs, this work provides important information for the systematic design of cell components and demonstrates the importance of controlling cell operation, which can aid in the commercialization and widespread deployment of low-cost, long-life AEMFCs.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030

The energy transition will require a rapid deployment of renewable energy (RE) and electric vehicles (EVs) where other transit modes are unavailable. EV batteries could complement RE generation by providing short-term grid services. However, estimating the market opportunity requires an understanding of many socio-technical parameters and constraints. We quantify the global EV battery capacity available for grid storage using an integrated model incorporating future EV battery deployment, battery degradation, and market participation. We include both in-use and end-of-vehicle-life use phases and find a technical capacity of 32–62 terawatt-hours by 2050. Low participation rates of 12%–43% are needed to provide short-term grid storage demand globally. Participation rates fall below 10% if half of EV batteries at end-of-vehicle-life are used as stationary storage. Short-term grid storage demand could be met as early as 2030 across most regions. Our estimates are generally conservative and offer a lower bound of future opportunities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mastering morphology of non-fullerene acceptors towards long-term stable organic solar cells

Despite the rapid progress of organic solar cells based on non-fullerene acceptors, simultaneously achieving high power conversion efficiency and long-term stability for commercialization requires sustainable research effort. Here, we demonstrate stable devices by integrating a wide bandgap electron-donating polymer (namely PTzBI-dF) and two acceptors (namely L8BO and Y6) that feature similar structures yet different thermal and morphological properties. The organic solar cell based on PTzBI-dF:L8BO:Y6 could achieve a promising efficiency of 18.26% in the conventional device structure. In the inverted structure, excellent long-term thermal stability over 1400 h under 85 °C continuous heating is obtained. The improved performance can be ascribed to suppressed charge recombination along with appropriate charge transport. We find that the morphological features in terms of crystalline coherence length of fresh and aged films can be gradually regulated by the weight ratio of L8BO:Y6. Additionally, the occurrence of melting point decrease and reduced enthalpy in PTzBI-dF:L8BO:Y6 films could prohibit the amorphous phase to cluster, and consequently overcome the energetic traps accumulation aroused by thermal stress, which is a critical issue in high efficiency non-fullerene acceptors-based devices. This work provides insight into understanding non-fullerene acceptors-based organic solar cells for improved efficiency and stability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term warming in a Mediterranean-type grassland affects soil bacterial functional potential but not bacterial taxonomic composition

Abstract Climate warming is known to impact ecosystem composition and functioning. However, it remains largely unclear how soil microbial communities respond to long-term, moderate warming. In this study, we used Illumina sequencing and microarrays (GeoChip 5.0) to analyze taxonomic and functional gene compositions of the soil microbial community after 14 years of warming (at 0.8–1.0 °C for 10 years and then 1.5–2.0 °C for 4 years) in a Californian grassland. Long-term warming had no detectable effect on the taxonomic composition of soil bacterial community, nor on any plant or abiotic soil variables. In contrast, functional gene compositions differed between warming and control for bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities. Functional genes associated with labile carbon (C) degradation increased in relative abundance in the warming treatment, whereas those associated with recalcitrant C degradation decreased. A number of functional genes associated with nitrogen (N) cycling (e.g., denitrifying genes encoding nitrate-, nitrite-, and nitrous oxidereductases) decreased, whereas nifH gene encoding nitrogenase increased in the warming treatment. These results suggest that microbial functional potentials are more sensitive to long-term moderate warming than the taxonomic composition of microbial community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond real: alternative unitary cluster Jastrow models for molecular electronic structure calculations on near-term quantum computers

Near-term quantum devices require wavefunction ansätze that are expressive while also of shallow circuit depth in order to both accurately and efficiently simulate molecular electronic structure. While the unitary coupled cluster ansatz (e.g., UCCSD) has become a standard, the high gate count associated with the implementation of this limits its feasibility on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware. k -Fold unitary cluster Jastrow (uCJ) ansätze mitigate this challenge by providing O( kN 2 ) circuit scaling and favorable linear depth circuit implementation. Previous work has focused on the real orbitalrotation (Re-uCJ) variant of uCJ, which allows an exact (Trotter-free) implementation. Here we extend and generalize the k -fold uCJ framework by introducing two new variants, Im-uCJ and g-uCJ, which incorporate imaginary and fully complex orbital rotation operators, respectively. Similar to Re-uCJ, both of the new variants achieve quadratic gate-count scaling. Our results focus on the simplest k = 1 model, and show that the uCJ models frequently maintain energy errors within chemical accuracy (∼1 kcal mol −1 ). Both g-uCJ and Im-uCJ are more expressive in terms of capturing electron correlation and are also more accurate than the earlier Re-uCJ ansatz. We further show that Im-uCJ and g-uCJ circuits can also be implemented exactly, without any Trotter decomposition. Numerical tests using k = 1 on H 2 , H 3 + , Be 2 , C 2 H 4 , C 2 H 6 and C 6 H 6 in various basis sets confirm the practical feasibility of these shallow Jastrow-based ansätze for applications on near-term quantum hardware.

Tkachenko, Nikolay V. [University of California, B↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term multi-wavelength study of 1ES 0647+250

The BL Lac object 1ES 0647+250 is one of the few distant γ-ray emitting blazars detected at very high energies (VHEs; &100 GeV) during a non-flaring state. It was detected with the MAGIC telescopes during a period of low activity in the years 2009-2011 as well as during three flaring activities in the years 2014, 2019, and 2020, with the highest VHE flux in the last epoch. An extensive multi-instrument data set was collected as part of several coordinated observing campaigns over these years. We aim to characterise the long-term multi-band flux variability of 1ES 0647+250, as well as its broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) during four distinct activity states selected in four different epochs, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the blazar emission region under certain assumptions. We evaluated the variability and correlation of the emission in the different energy bands with the fractional variability and the Z transformed discrete correlation function, as well as its spectral evolution in X-rays and γ rays. Owing to the controversy in the redshift measurements of 1ES 0647+250 reported in the literature, we also estimated its distance in an indirect manner through a comparison of the GeV and TeV spectra from simultaneous observations with Fermi-LAT and MAGIC during the strongest flaring activity detected to date. Moreover, we interpret the SEDs from the four distinct activity states within the framework of one-component and two-component leptonic models, proposing specific scenarios that are able to reproduce the available multi-instrument data. We find significant long-term variability, especially in X-rays and VHE γ rays. Furthermore, significant (3-4σ) correlations were found between the radio, optical, and high-energy (HE) γ-ray fluxes, with the radio emission delayed by about ~400 days with respect to the optical and γ-ray bands. The spectral analysis reveals a harder-when-brighter trend during the non-flaring state in the X-ray domain. However, no clear patterns were observed for either the enhanced states or the HE (30 MeV < E < 100 GeV) and VHE γ-ray emission of the source. The indirect estimation of the redshift yielded a value of z = 0.45 ± 0.05, which is compatible with some of the values reported in the literature. The SEDs related to the low-activity state and the three flaring states of 1ES 0647+250 can be described reasonably well with the both one-component and two-component leptonic scenarios. However, the long-term correlations indicate the need for an additional radio-producing region located about 3.6 pc downstream from the gamma-ray producing region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable generalized screening for high-order terms in the many-body expansion: Algorithm, open-source implementation, and demonstration

The many-body expansion lies at the heart of numerous fragment-based methods that are intended to sidestep the nonlinear scaling of ab initio quantum chemistry, making electronic structure calculations feasible in large systems. In principle, inclusion of higher-order n-body terms ought to improve the accuracy in a controllable way, but unfavorable combinatorics often defeats this in practice and applications with n ≥ 4 are rare. Here, we outline an algorithm to overcome this combinatorial bottleneck, based on a bottom-up approach to energy-based screening. This is implemented within a new open-source software application (“Fragme∩t”), which is integrated with a lightweight semi-empirical method that is used to cull subsystems, attenuating the combinatorial growth of higher-order terms in the graph that is used to manage the calculations. This facilitates applications of unprecedented size, and we report four-body calculations in (H2O)64 clusters that afford relative energies within 0.1 kcal/mol/monomer of the supersystem result using less than 10% of the unique subsystems. We also report n-body calculations in (H2O)20 clusters up to n = 8, at which point the expansion terminates naturally due to screening. These are the largest n-body calculations reported to date using ab initio electronic structure theory, and they confirm that high-order n-body terms are mostly artifacts of basis-set superposition error.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lifetime renormalization of weakly anharmonic superconducting qubits. I. Role of number nonconserving terms

The dynamics of a weakly anharmonic superconducting qubit in a complex electromagnetic environment is generally well described by an effective multimode Kerr Hamiltonian at sufficiently weak excitation. This Hamiltonian can be embedded in a master equation with losses determined by the details of the electromagnetic environment. Recent experiments indicate, however, that when a superconducting circuit is driven with microwave signals populating the system with sufficiently high excitations, the observed relaxation rates appear to be substantially different from expectations based on the electromagnetic environment of the qubit alone. This issue is a limiting factor in the optimization of superconducting qubit readout schemes. We claim here that an effective master equation with drive-power-dependent parameters is an efficient approach to model such quantum dynamics. In this sequence of papers, we derive effective master equations, whose parameters exhibit nonlinear dependence on the excitation level of the circuit as well as the electromagnetic environment of the qubit. Further, we show that the number nonconserving terms in the qubit nonlinearity generally lead to a renormalization of dissipative parameters of the effective master equation, while the number conserving terms give rise to a renormalization of the system frequencies. Here, in Paper I, we consider the excitation-relaxation dynamics of a transmon qubit that is prepared in a certain initial state, but is not driven otherwise. A unitary transformation technique is introduced to study the renormalization of (i) qubit relaxation due to coupling to a generic bath and (ii) Purcell decay. Analytic expressions are provided for the dependence of the nonlinear dissipative terms on the details of the electromagnetic environment of the qubit. The perturbation technique based on unitary transformations developed here is generalized to the continuously driven case in Paper II.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Octet and decuplet baryon σ terms and mass decompositions

We present a comprehensive analysis of the SU(3) octet and decuplet baryon masses and σ terms using high-precision lattice QCD data and chiral SU(3) effective theory with finite range regularization. The effects of various systematic uncertainties, including from the scale setting of the lattice data and the regularization prescriptions, are quantified. We find the pion-nucleon and strange nucleon σ terms to be σ πN = 44(3)(3) MeV and σ Ns = 50(6)(1) MeV, respectively. Furthermore, the results provide constraints on the energy-momentum tensor mass decompositions of the SU(3) octet and decuplet baryons, where we find that the trace anomaly and quark-gluon energies decrease for strange baryons due to their larger strange σ terms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Depletion to Restoration: Lessons From Long‐Term Monitoring of Carbon Gains and Losses in Cropping Systems

As global atmospheric CO 2 rapidly approaches a key tipping point, there is an urgent need to implement strategies to reverse this pattern. A generally accepted understanding of carbon (C) in agricultural fields includes: (H1) substantial C loss occurs when natural vegetation is converted to crops, (H2) soils typically reach a steady-state C concentration under contemporary practices, and (H3) improved management or crop selection can enhance soil C stocks over time. Significant variability exists, but studies consistently show large C losses from agricultural ecosystems, supporting H1. Although steady-state C levels (H2) are commonly assumed, measuring C gains or losses in mature agroecosystems is challenging. Efforts to increase soil C storage (H3) have limited data due to the diversity of potential practices, compounded by substantial variability in soil C measurements. Here, long-term (7–17 year) ecosystem C flux data from diverse cropping systems revealed that conventionally tilled annual row crops (maize and soybean) act as significant long-term atmospheric C sources, challenging H2. Furthermore, conservation tillage practices reduced C losses compared with conventional tillage but showed minimal evidence for long-term ecosystem C storage, even after 20+ years. This indicates that no-till practices reduce C losses but imply that no soil C is added, challenging H3. By contrast, perennial Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum, and restored tallgrass prairie systems store C at the ecosystem scale more effectively than minimally tilled annual row crops. Analysis over multiple years demonstrates significant ecosystem C storage with perennial crops, varying by species, starting in the first year of transition. These findings, although focused on one region, suggest that the assumptions of steady-state C levels and increased storage from conservation practices do not universally apply and that significant changes to agroecosystems are required to increase C storage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long‐term yields in annual and perennial bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

Abstract Many yield predictions in perennial bioenergy species have been made based on data collected during the establishment phase of growth or a limited number of long‐term studies. Few studies compare multiple perennial crops with the dominant agricultural vegetation of the landscape over long time periods. Here, we present the results of 11 years of perennial crop management on fertile agricultural soils in central Illinois, compared with conventional row crop maize/soybean ( Zea mays L., Glycine max L.) production. We examined the long‐term productivity and drought susceptibility of Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et. Deu. ex. Hodkinson et Renvoize (miscanthus), Panicum virgatum L., Cave‐in‐Rock cultivar (switchgrass), and a native prairie mix, in contrast to annual maize/soybean agriculture. Long‐term yields for miscanthus and switchgrass failed to reach initial predictions made during the establishment phase; however, in miscanthus, the 11 th year of production shows little progressive yield loss with age, exceeding the modeled limit for the onset of age‐related decline. Harvest timing and differences in yields from hand and machine harvests in perennial crops likely contribute to overestimates of potential yields. Application of fertilizer to mature miscanthus resulted in significant increases in yield after a severe drought, though modeled effects of management and drought in miscanthus point to a more complex mechanism for yield response.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesophyll conductance response to short-term changes in p CO 2 is related to leaf anatomy and biochemistry in diverse C 4 grasses

Mesophyll CO 2 conductance (g m ) in C 3 species responds to short-term (minutes) changes in environment potentially due to changes in leaf anatomical and biochemical properties and measurement artefacts. Compared with C 3 species, there is less information on g m responses to short-term changes in environmental conditions such as partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) across diverse C 4 species and the potential determinants of these responses. Using 16 C 4 grasses we investigated the response of g m to short-term changes in pCO 2 and its relationship with leaf anatomy and biochemistry. In general, g m increased as pCO 2 decreased (statistically significant increase in 12 species), with percentage increases in gm ranging from +13% to +250%. Greater increase in g m at low pCO 2 was observed in species exhibiting relatively thinner mesophyll cell walls along with greater mesophyll surface area exposed to intercellular air spaces, leaf N, photosynthetic capacity and activities of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase and Rubisco. Species with greater CO 2 responses of g m were also able to maintain their leaf water-use efficiencies (TE i ) under low CO 2 . Our study advances understanding of CO 2 response of g m in diverse C 4 species, identifies the key leaf traits related to this response and has implications for improving C 4 photosynthetic models and TE i through modification of g m .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗