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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018

Previous studies have noted a relationship between African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, due to the limitations of past dust analyses, the strength of this relationship remains uncertain. The emergence of aerosol reanalyses, including the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) reanalysis, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA), enables an investigation of the relationship between African dust and TC activity over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in a consistent temporal and spatial manner for 2003–2018. Although June–July–August (JJA) 550 nm dust AOD (DAOD) from all three reanalysis products correlates significantly over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the difference in DAOD magnitude between products can be as large as 60 % over the Caribbean and 20 % over the tropical North Atlantic. Based on the three individual reanalyses, we have created an aerosol multi-reanalysis consensus (MRC). The MRC presents overall better root mean square error over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean compared to individual reanalyses when verified with ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) AOD measurements. Each of the three individual reanalyses and the MRC have significant negative correlations between JJA Caribbean DAOD and seasonal Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), while the correlation between JJA tropical North Atlantic DAOD and seasonal ACE is weaker. Possible reasons for this regional difference are provided. A composite analysis of 3 high-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years versus 3 low-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years reveals large differences in overall Atlantic TC activity. We also show that JJA Caribbean DAOD is significantly correlated with large-scale fields associated with variability in interannual Atlantic TC activity including zonal wind shear, mid-level moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), implying confounding effects of these factors on the dust–TC relationship. We find that seasonal Atlantic DAOD and the AMM, the leading mode of coupled Atlantic variability, are inversely related and intertwined in the dust–TC relationship. Overall, DAOD in both the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, with stronger correlations in the Caribbean than farther east in the tropical North Atlantic.

Dust particles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using GPM, TROPICS, and other Spaceborne Observations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit a distinct diurnal cycle of high clouds and rainfall, marked by an expansion of the TC cirrus canopy during the day and enhanced rainfall overnight. Recent modeling work also has uncovered a diurnal cycle of low-level radial and tangential winds in simulated storms, marked by an expansion of the surface wind field overnight and into the morning, along with increasing maximum wind speed in the eyewall. These results suggest that diurnal changes in radiative heating tendencies not only affect upper-level cirrus clouds and precipitating convection, but also the low-level circulation. This presentation will characterize expansions of the TC rain field using the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission’s Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation estimates. The Level 3 IMERG-Final rainfall data are azimuthally averaged about TC center positions in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, accounting for asymmetries due to vertical wind shear and storm motion. Preliminary results indicate that the TC rain field expands overnight and through the morning, reaching its maximum extent during the afternoon. This evolution is considerably asymmetric, however, with expansion favored downshear of the storm center. The results are broadly consistent with previous work that characterized the TC diurnal cycle using other observations and simulations. A similar analysis is performed using microphysical retrievals from the GPM Goddard Profiling algorithm and lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper to understand the relationship between the diurnal cycle, ice microphsyics, and lightning. Finally, with the ongoing Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, we will discuss our plans to leverage TROPICS for enhanced observation of the TC diurnal cycle.

Patrick Duran↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine-Learning-Based Adaptive Thinning of CrIS Radiances to Improve Global Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts

This work is focused on optimizing the assimilation of hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) with the goal of improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. Current operational assimilation systems rely on subsampling IR radiances on a regular thinning grid. A new and improved adaptive methodology based on machine learning (ML) recognizes TCs from geostationary satellite imagery and is implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation framework. The ML methodology is extensively trained on existing TC data sets and creates for each TC a dynamic mask, based on the evolving shape and life cycle of that specific event. Once a TC mask is created, a switch is then activated in the data assimilation system to alter the thinning, ingesting more CrIS radiances within the moving mask, thus increasing the TC sampling. After the TC dissipates, the assimilation of CrIS radiances reverts to normal data density. Results of TC segmentation provided by a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model known as the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) are compared to the previously used U-Net model. The new approach surpasses the performance of the previously developed one. The methodology is applied to both clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances. Benefits from the latter methodology, particularly in improving the structure of TCs and the intensity forecasts, are presented.

Oreste Reale↗
NASA NTRS1981

Susceptibility measurements on the superconducting properties of Nb-Ge alloys

A susceptibility apparatus to measure superconducting properties of samples made in the MSFC Drop Tube was used to measure the transition temperature (Tc) and susceptibilities of Nb and Nb Ge Alloys prepared in bulk spherical (2-4 mm diameter) form using a 32 m drop tube in which containerless low gravity solidification could take place. Results indicate that a drop tube processing environment was beneficial for increasing the Tc of the superconducting phase of the material over that of arc melted material. The increase in Tc is found to be related to the amount of solidification of the total sample that took place before reaching the bottom of the drop tube. In phase and quadrature phase measurements of the specimen's susceptibility indicated that some improvement in homogeneity takes place in drop tube processing. These phase measurements also indicated little or no shielding of a lower Tc phase by a higher Tc filamentary structure.

Rathz, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Transparent conductive coatings

Thin film transparent conductors are discussed. Materials with electrical conductivity and optical transparency are highly desirable in many optoelectronic applications including photovoltaics. Certain binary oxide semiconductors such as tin oxide (SnO2) and indium oxide (In2O3) offer much better performance tradeoff in optoelectronics as well as better mechanical and chemical stability than thin semitransparent films. These thin-film transparent conductors (TC) are essentially wide-bandgap degenerate semiconductors - invariably n-type - and hence are transparent to sub-bandgap (visible) radiation while affording high electrical conductivity due to the large free electron concentration. The principal performance characteristics of TC's are, of course, electrical conductivity and optical transmission. The TC's have a refractive index of around 2.0 and hence act as very efficient antireflection coatings. For using TC's in surface barrier solar cells, the photovoltaic barrier is of utmost importance and so the work function or electron affinity of the TC is also a very important material parameter. Fabrication processes are discussed.

Ashok, S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Superconductivity applications for infrared and microwave devices; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Apr. 19, 20, 1990

Various papers on superconductivity applications for IR and microwave devices are presented. The individual topics addressed include: pulsed laser deposition of Tl-Ca-Ba-Cu-O films, patterning of high-Tc superconducting thin films on Si substrates, IR spectra and the energy gap in thin film YBa2Cu3O(7-delta), high-temperature superconducting thin film microwave circuits, novel filter implementation utilizing HTS materials, high-temperature superconductor antenna investigations, high-Tc superconducting IR detectors, high-Tc superconducting IR detectors from Y-Ba-Cu-O thin films, Y-Ba-Cu0-O thin films as high-speed IR detectors, fabrication of a high-Tc superconducting bolometer, transition-edge microbolometer, photoresponse of YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) granular and epitaxial superconducting thin films, fast IR response of YBCO thin films, kinetic inductance effects in high-Tc microstrip circuits at microwave frequencies.

Bhasin, Kul B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Detection of Deforestation and Land Conversion in Rondonia, Brazil Using Change Detection Techniques

Fires associated with tropical deforestation, land conversion, and land use greatly contribute to emissions as well as the depletion of carbon and nutrient pools. The objective of this research was to compare change detection techniques for identifying deforestation and cattle pasture formation during a period of early colonization and agricultural expansion in the vicinity of Jamari, Rond6nia. Multi-date Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data between 1984 and 1992 was examined in a 94 370-ha area of active deforestation to map land cover change. The Tasseled Cap (TC) transformation was used to enhance the contrast between forest, cleared areas, and regrowth. TC images were stacked into a composite multi-date TC and used in a principal components (PC) transformation to identify change components. In addition, consecutive TC image pairs were differenced and stacked into a composite multi-date differenced image. A maximum likelihood classification of each image composite was compared for identification of land cover change. The multi-date TC composite classification had the best accuracy of 78.1% (kappa). By 1984, only 5% of the study area had been cleared, but by 1992, 11% of the area had been deforested, primarily for pasture and 7% lost due to hydroelectric dam flooding. Finally, discrimination of pasture versus cultivation was improved due to the ability to detect land under sustained clearing opened to land exhibiting regrowth with infrequent clearing.

Guild, Liane S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Superconducting Mixers for Far-Infrared Spectroscopy

The goal of this project was to fabricate and test planar arrays of superconducting mixers for the 2-6 THz band. The technology is intended for multi-beam receivers aboard Explorer-class missions and the SOFIA Airborne Observatory. The mixer technology is the superconducting transition-edge microbolometer, which is more commonly known as the Hot-Electron micro-Bolometer (HEB). As originally proposed, two superconducting technologies were to be developed: (1) low-Tc niobium HEBs which could approach quantum-noise-limited sensitivities but require cooling to 2- 4 K, and (2) high-Tc YBCO HEBs with sensitivities 10 times worse but with a relaxed cooling requirement of 30-60 K. The low-Tc devices would be best for astronomy applications on SOFIA, whereas the high-Tc devices would be more suitable for planetary missions using systems without stored cryogens. The work plan called for planar micro-fabrication and initial testing of HEB devices at the NIST Boulder clean-room facility. Subsequent assembly and RF testing of selected devices would be done at the CASA laboratory at U. Colorado. Approximately 1-year after work began on this project, Dr. Eyal Gerecht joined the NIST group, and assumed day-to-day responsibility for Nb-HEB development at NIST outside of micro-fabrication. The YBCO-HEB work was to be guided by Dr. Ron Ono, who was the NIST expert in YBCO technology. Unfortunately, recurrent health problems limited the time Ron could devote to the project in its first year. These problems became aggravated in early 2001, and sadly led to Ron's death in October, 2001. His loss was not only a blow to his friends and associates at NIST, but was mounted by the US superconductivity community at large. With his passing, work on high-Tc HEBs ceased at NIST. There was no one to replace him or his expertise. Our work subsequently shifted solely to Nb-HEB devices. In the sections which follow, our progress in the development of diffusion-cooled Nb-HEB mixers is detailed. To simplify the terminology, these devices will subsequently be called DHEB mixers to distinguish them from phonon-cooled devices (PHEBs).

Betz, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The expression and function of the achaete-scute genes in Tribolium castaneum reveals conservation and variation in neural pattern formation and cell fate specification

The study of achaete-scute (ac/sc) genes has recently become a paradigm to understand the evolution and development of the arthropod nervous system. We describe the identification and characterization of the ac/sc genes in the coleopteran insect species Tribolium castaneum. We have identified two Tribolium ac/sc genes - achaete-scute homolog (Tc-ASH) a proneural gene and asense (Tc-ase) a neural precursor gene that reside in a gene complex. Focusing on the embryonic central nervous system we find that Tc-ASH is expressed in all neural precursors and the proneural clusters from which they segregate. Through RNAi and misexpression studies we show that Tc-ASH is necessary for neural precursor formation in Tribolium and sufficient for neural precursor formation in Drosophila. Comparison of the function of the Drosophila and Tribolium proneural ac/sc genes suggests that in the Drosophila lineage these genes have maintained their ancestral function in neural precursor formation and have acquired a new role in the fate specification of individual neural precursors. Furthermore, we find that Tc-ase is expressed in all neural precursors suggesting an important and conserved role for asense genes in insect nervous system development. Our analysis of the Tribolium ac/sc genes indicates significant plasticity in gene number, expression and function, and implicates these modifications in the evolution of arthropod neural development.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1988

Core temperature is regulated, although at a lower temperature, in rats exposed to hypergravic fields

1. In rats acclimated to 23 degrees C (RT rats) or 5 degrees C (CA rats), core temperature (Tc), tail temperature (Tt) and oxygen consumption (VO2) were measured during exposure to a hypergravic field. 2. Rats were exposed for 5.5 h to a 3 g field while ambient temperature (Ta) was varied. For the first 2 h, Ta was 25 degrees C; then Ta was raised to 34 degrees C for 1.5 h. During this period of warm exposure, Tc increased 4 degrees C in both RT and CA rats. Finally, Ta was returned to 25 degrees C for 2 h, and Tc decreased toward the levels measured prior to warm exposure. 3. In a second experiment at 3 g, RT and CA rats were exposed to cold (12 degrees C) after two hours at 25 degrees C. During the one hour cold exposure, Tc fell 1.5 degrees C in RT and 0.5 degree C in CA rats. After cold exposure, when ambient temperature was again 25 degrees C, Tc of RT and CA rats returned toward the levels measured prior to the thermal disturbance. 4. Rats appear to regulate their temperature, albeit at a lower level, in a 3 g field.

NASA Discipline Number 40-30↗
NASA NTRS2005

The GPM Common Calibrated Brightness Temperature Product

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) project will provide a core satellite carrying the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and will use microwave observations from a constellation of other satellites. Each partner with a satellite in the constellation will have a calibration that meets their own requirements and will decide on the format to archive their brightness temperature (Tb) record in GPM. However, GPM multi-sensor precipitation algorithms need to input intercalibrated Tb's in order to avoid differences among sensors introducing artifacts into the longer term climate record of precipitation. The GPM Common Calibrated Brightness Temperature Product is intended to address this problem by providing intercalibrated Tb data, called "Tc" data, where the "c" stands for common. The precipitation algorithms require a Tc file format that is both generic and flexible enough to accommodate the different passive microwave instruments. The format will provide detailed information on the processing history in order to allow future researchers to have a record of what was done. The format will be simple, including the main items of scan time, latitude, longitude, and Tc. It will also provide spacecraft orientation, spacecraft location, orbit, and instrument scan type (cross-track or conical). Another simplification is to store data in real numbers, avoiding the ambiguity of scaled data. Finally, units and descriptions will be provided in the product. The format is built on the concept of a swath, which is a series of scans that have common geolocation and common scan geometry. Scan geometry includes pixels per scan, sensor orientation, scan type, and incidence angles. The Tc algorithm and data format are being tested using the pre-GPM Precipitation Processing System (PPS) software to generate formats and 1/0 routines. In the test, data from SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, and WindSat are being processed and written as Tc products.

Stout, John↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Expression and Function of the Achaete-Scute Genes in Tribolium castaneum Reveals Conservation and Variation in Neural Pattern Formation and Cell Fate Specification

SUMMARY The study of achaete-scute (ac/sc) genes has recently become a paradigm to understand the evolution and development of the arthropod nervous system. We describe the identification and characterization of the ache genes in the coleopteran insect species Tribolium castaneum. We have identified two Tribolium ache genes - achaete-scute homolog (Tc-ASH) a proneural gene and asense (Tc-ase) a neural precursor gene that reside in a gene complex. Focusing on the embryonic central nervous system we fmd that Tc-ASH is expressed in all neural precursors and the proneural clusters from which they segregate. Through RNAi and misexpression studies we show that Tc-ASH is necessary for neural precursor formation in Triboliurn and sufficient for neural precursor formation in Drosophila. Comparison of the function of the Drosophila and Triboliurn proneural ac/sc genes suggests that in the Drosophila lineage these genes have maintained their ancestral function in neural precursor formation and have acquired a new role in the fate specification of individual neural precursors. Furthermore, we find that Tc-use is expressed in all neural precursors suggesting an important and conserved role for asense genes in insect nervous system development. Our analysis of the Triboliurn ache genes indicates significant plasticity in gene number, expression and function, and implicates these modifications in the evolution of arthropod neural development.

Wheeler, Scott R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Radiative Consistency of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Cloud Retrievals

The consistency of cloud top temperature (Tc) and effective cloud fraction (f) retrieved by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observation suite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the EOS-Aqua platform are investigated. Collocated AIRS and MODIS TC and f are compared via an 'effective scene brightness temperature' (Tb,e). Tb,e is calculated with partial field of view (FOV) contributions from TC and surface temperature (TS), weighted by f and 1-f, respectively. AIRS reports up to two cloud layers while MODIS reports up to one. However, MODIS reports TC, TS, and f at a higher spatial resolution than AIRS. As a result, pixel-scale comparisons of TC and f are difficult to interpret, demonstrating the need for alternatives such as Tb,e. AIRS-MODIS Tb,e differences ((Delta)Tb,e) for identical observing scenes are useful as a diagnostic for cloud quantity comparisons. The smallest values of DTb,e are for high and opaque clouds, with increasing scatter in (Delta)Tb,e for clouds of smaller opacity and lower altitude. A persistent positive bias in DTb,e is observed in warmer and low-latitude scenes, characterized by a mixture of MODIS CO2 slicing and 11-mm window retrievals. These scenes contain heterogeneous cloud cover, including mixtures of multilayered cloudiness and misplaced MODIS cloud top pressure. The spatial patterns of (Delta)Tb,e are systematic and do not correlate well with collocated AIRS-MODIS radiance differences, which are more random in nature and smaller in magnitude than (Delta)Tb,e. This suggests that the observed inconsistencies in AIRS and MODIS cloud fields are dominated by retrieval algorithm differences, instead of differences in the observed radiances. The results presented here have implications for the validation of cloudy satellite retrieval algorithms, and use of cloud products in quantitative analyses.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Investigation of the Longitudinal Proximity Effect in Superconducting and Normal Metal TES

As the TES volume and (effective) Tc become very small - for volume < 10 micrometers x 10 micrometers x 0.5 micrometers and Tc < 90 mK - we approach a regime in which the noise equivalent power is dominated by fluctuations in power dissipating from the TES electrons to its phonons. Our ultimate goal is to build a TES bolometer that operates in this regime to be used for far-infrared and sub-mm astronomy. In this study, we characterize the R vs T behavior of small TES in order to engineer a TES bolometer that has a very low Tc. Sadleir et al found that as the distance L between two superconducting leads, with the lead Tc >> the TES Tc, connected at opposite ends of TES approaches zero, superconductivity is induced parallel to the current flow, or longitudinally, and results in a much higher effective TES Te. Here we present effective Te measurements of Mo/Au TES bounded by Nb leads as a function of L which ranges between 4 and 36 micrometer. We observe that the effective Te is suppressed for current density of order 10(exp -6) A/sq micrometers. We also explore the possibility of using a normal metal TES.

Brown, Ari-David↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can the Lateral Proximity Effect Be Used to Create the Superconducting Transition of a Micron-Sized TES?

Recent measurements of micron-sized Mo/Au bilayer Transition Edge Sensors (TESs) have demonstrated that the TES can behave like an S-S'-S weak link due to the lateral proximity effect from superconducting leads. In this regime the Tc is a function of bias current, and the effective Tc shifts from the bilayer Tc towards the lead Tc. We explore the idea that a micron-sized S-N-S weak link could provide a new method to engineer the TES Tc. This method would be particularly useful when small size requirements for a bilayer TES (such as for a hot-electron microbolometer) lead to undesirable shifts in the bilayer Te. We present measurements of a variety of micron-sized normal Au 'TES' devices with Nb leads. We find no evidence of a superconducting transition in the Au film of these devices, in dramatic contrast to the strong lateral proximity effect seen in micron-sized Mo/Au bilayer devices. The absence of a transition in these devices is also in disagreement with theoretical predictions for S-N-S weak links. We hypothesize that a finite contact resistance between the Nb and Au may be weakening the effect. We conclude that the use of the lateral proximity effect to create a superconducting transition will be difficult given current fabrication procedures.

Barrentine, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin

In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗