Sensitivities of projected 1980 photovoltaic system costs to major system cost drivers
The sensitivity of projected 1990 photovoltaic (PV) system costs to major system cost drivers was examined. It includes: (1) module costs and module efficiencies; (2) area related balance of system (BOS) costs; (3) inverter costs and efficiencies; and (4) module marketing and distribution markups and system integration fees. Recent PV system cost experiences and the high costs of electricity from the systems are reviewed. The 1990 system costs are projected for five classes of PV systems, including four ground mounted 5-MWp systems and one residential 5-kWp system. System cost projections are derived by first projecting costs and efficiencies for all subsystems and components. Sensitivity analyses reveal that reductions in module cost and engineering and system integration fees seem to have the greatest potential for contributing to system cost reduction. Although module cost is clearly the prime candidate for fruitful PV research and development activities, engineering and system integration fees seem to be more amenable to reduction through appropriate choice of system size and market strategy. Increases in inverter and module efficiency yield significant benefits, especially for systems with high area related costs.