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At least 163 records · Page 9

An efficient method to propagate model uncertainty when inverting seismic data for time domain seismic moment tensors

SUMMARY We present a computationally efficient method to approximately propagate uncertainty when linearly inverting seismic data for point source, time variable moment tensor components. The method is based on the assumption that the data residual, given by the difference between the observed seismic data and the data predicated by a linear inversion, contains the effects of both data and model uncertainty. Our method uses a distribution of data residuals, added directly to the data, in a pseudo-Monte Carlo scheme. Using the assumption that the data residual is a stochastic process, we use the well-known Karhunen–Loève (KL) theorem to construct a distribution of data residuals, where the required basis functions are constructed using Fourier series. The Fourier series are scaled by a product of a random variable and the real-valued spectral amplitudes of the original data residual’s spectrum. Thus, the Fourier series and spectral amplitudes are eigenfunction-eigenvalue pairs used in the KL-based construction of data residual distribution. Using tests with synthetic data, we show that our method compares closely with a Finite Difference Monte Carlo (FDMC) method that we presented previously. More importantly, the method presented here is computationally several orders of magnitude faster than our previous FDMC method, and requires no a priori assumptions of model and/or data uncertainty.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

A modified objective mapping technique for scatterometer wind data

A method for generating high-resolution wind maps from scatterometer data was developed and tested on synthetic data for the northeast Pacific Ocean. It is shown that, unlike the wind fields generated by current GCMs, the wind maps constructed by this method retain the high spatial resolution of the scatterometer wherever adequate measurements exist. For the NASA scatterometer, this method would produce every 12 hours a wind map with spatial resolution that preserves the small-scale features of the original data over about half the mapped region. Over the rest of the region, maps with somewhat lower resolution and accuracy will be obtained.

Kelly, Kathryn A.↗

On the Isothermality of Solar Plasmas

Recent measurements have shown that the quiet unstructured solar corona observed at the solar limb is close to isothermal, at a temperature that does not appear to change over wide areas or with time. Some in dividual active loop structures have also been found to be nearly iso thermal both along their axis and across their cross-section. Even a complex active region observed at the solar limb has been found to be composed of three distinct isothermal plasmas. If confirmed, these r esults would pose formidable challenges to the current theoretical understanding of the thermal structure and heating of the solar corona. For example, no current theoretical model can explain the excess dens ities and lifetimes of many observed loops if the loops are in fact i sothermal. All of these measurements are based on the so-called emiss ion measure (EM) diagnostic technique that is applied to a set of opt ically thin lines under the assumption of isothermal plasma. It provi des simultaneous measurement of both the temperature and EM. However, no study has ever been carried out to quantify the uncertainties in the technique and to rigorously assess its ability to discriminate bet ween isothermal and multithermal plasmas. Such a study is the topic o f the present work. We define a formal measure of the uncertainty in the EM diagnostic technique that can easily be applied to real data. We here apply it to synthetic data based on a variety of assumed plas ma thermal distributions, and develop a method to quantitatively asse ss the degree of multithermality of a plasma.

Landi, E.↗

Comparison of Computational and Experimental Microphone Array Results for an 18%-Scale Aircraft Model

An 18%-scale, semi-span model is used as a platform for examining the efficacy of microphone array processing using synthetic data from numerical simulations. Two hybrid RANS/LES codes coupled with Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings solvers are used to calculate 97 microphone signals at the locations of an array employed in the NASA LaRC 14x22 tunnel. Conventional, DAMAS, and CLEAN-SC array processing is applied in an identical fashion to the experimental and computational results for three different configurations involving deploying and retracting the main landing gear and a part span flap. Despite the short time records of the numerical signals, the beamform maps are able to isolate the noise sources, and the appearance of the DAMAS synthetic array maps is generally better than those from the experimental data. The experimental CLEAN-SC maps are similar in quality to those from the simulations indicating that CLEAN-SC may have less sensitivity to background noise. The spectrum obtained from DAMAS processing of synthetic array data is nearly identical to the spectrum of the center microphone of the array, indicating that for this problem array processing of synthetic data does not improve spectral comparisons with experiment. However, the beamform maps do provide an additional means of comparison that can reveal differences that cannot be ascertained from spectra alone.

Lockard, David P.↗

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A system identification approach for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of radiation-induced photocurrents

In this study, development of compact photocurrent models is currently dominated by analytical techniques that rely on physical assumptions to render the governing equations solvable in a closed form. Violation of these assumptions can reduce the accuracy of the models and/or limit their scope. In this paper we show that system identification of nonlinear state-space systems can serve as an alternative numerical basis for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of photocurrent effects. To that end we develop a compact gray box photocurrent model (GBPM) by using a state-space representation with a low-dimensional latent state equation that mimics a mathematical model for the response of an idealized class of devices to ionizing radiation. In so doing we obtain a model that learns the dynamics of a quantity of interest directly from its measurements without requiring snapshots of the internal device state or its discretized model, and can be inferred from very small data sets. To demonstrate the approach we train the GBPM using a small experimental data set for a Z5236 Zener diode and a small synthetic data set obtained by simulating a synthetic pn-junction device. We then compare the GBPMs with black box models trained on the same data and show that performance of the latter is limited by the size of the data set, while the former are able to achieve excellent performance in both the reproductive and the predictive regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of a preliminary regional Earth model through comparison of synthetic and observed waveform data

In this report, we document the process related to developing a regional geologic model of a 605 x 1334 km area centered around Utah and encompassing surrounding states. This model is developed to test the effect that composition of a model has on the generation of synthetic data with the intent of using this information to improve upon full waveform moment tensor inversions. We compare observed data from three seismic events and five stations to the synthetic data generated by a preliminary model derived from a geologic framework model (GFM) developed by the USGS. The synthetic data and observed data comparisons indicate that our preliminary model performs well at smaller offset distances in the northern and central sections of the model. However, the southern stations consistently display synthetic data P- and S-wave arrival times that do not match the observed data arrival times, indicating that the velocity structure of the southern part of the model especially is inaccurate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗

Monitoring the Morphology of M87* in 2009-2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has recently delivered the first resolved images of M87*, the supermassive black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy. These images were produced using 230 GHz observations performed in 2017 April. Additional observations are required to investigate the persistence of the primary image feature—a ring with azimuthal brightness asymmetry—and to quantify the image variability on event horizon scales. To address this need, we analyze M87* data collected with prototype EHT arrays in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013. While these observations do not contain enough information to produce images, they are sufficient to constrain simple geometric models. We develop a modeling approach based on the framework utilized for the 2017 EHT data analysis and validate our procedures using synthetic data. Applying the same approach to the observational data sets, we find the M87* morphology in 2009–2017 to be consistent with a persistent asymmetric ring of ∼40 μas diameter. The position angle of the peak intensity varies in time. In particular, we find a significant difference between the position angle measured in 2013 and 2017. These variations are in broad agreement with predictions of a subset of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We show that quantifying the variability across multiple observational epochs has the potential to constrain the physical properties of the source, such as the accretion state or the black hole spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthetic High Impedance Fault Data through Deep Convolutional Generated Adversarial Network

High impedance faults (HIFs) have always been significant challenge in the power grids. Researchers have developed some advanced protective methods to detect the HIFs. To test and validate these methods, large amounts of HIF data are required. This paper presents a synthetic HIF data generating method using the deep convolutional generated adversarial network (DCGAN). The DCGAN includes a generator module to create synthetic HIF waveform from random noises; and a discriminator module to identify the flaws of those synthetic data, which ultimately help improve the quality of the synthetic data created by the generator. To test the fidelity of the generated synthetic HIF data, two different HIF-detection methods have been applied. Extensive simulation results have validated the effectiveness of using the DCGAN to create synthetic HIF data.

Yang, Kun↗

SRBench++: Principled Benchmarking of Symbolic Regression With Domain-Expert Interpretation

Symbolic regression searches for analytic expressions that accurately describe studied phenomena. The main promise of this approach is that it may return an interpretable model that can be insightful to users, while maintaining high accuracy. The current standard for benchmarking these algorithms is SRBench, which evaluates methods on hundreds of datasets that are a mix of real-world and simulated processes spanning multiple domains. At present, the ability of SRBench to evaluate interpretability is limited to measuring the size of expressions on real-world data, and the exactness of model forms on synthetic data. In practice, model size is only one of many factors used by subject experts to determine how interpretable a model truly is. Furthermore, SRBench does not characterize algorithm performance on specific, challenging sub-tasks of regression such as feature selection and evasion of local minima. In this work, we propose and evaluate an approach to benchmarking SR algorithms that addresses these limitations of SRBench by 1) incorporating expert evaluations of interpretability on a domain-specific task, and 2) evaluating algorithms over distinct properties of data science tasks. We evaluate 12 modern symbolic regression algorithms on these benchmarks and present an in-depth analysis of the results, discuss current challenges of symbolic regression algorithms and highlight possible improvements for the benchmark itself.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Feasibility of microwave holography for imaging the sea surface

The possibility of imaging the sea surface in three dimensions by means of microwave holography from a low-flying aircraft is considered. Data cover a brief feasibility study and a review of some computer experiments in which it was demonstrated that it is possible to compute three-dimensional images of objects from raw holographic data recorded on magnetic tape. These experiments used synthetic data.

Wells, W.↗

Comparisons Between NO PLIF Imaging and CFD Simulations of Mixing Flowfields for High-Speed Fuel Injectors

The current work compares experimentally and computationally obtained nitric oxide (NO) planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) images of the mixing flowfields for three types of high-speed fuel injectors: a strut, a ramp, and a rectangular flushwall. These injection devices, which exhibited promising mixing performance at lower flight Mach numbers, are currently being studied as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The EIMP aims to investigate scramjet fuel injection and mixing physics, and improve the understanding of underlying physical processes relevant to flight Mach numbers greater than eight. In the experiments, conducted in the NASA Langley Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility (AHSTF), the injectors are placed downstream of a Mach 6 facility nozzle, which simulates the high Mach number air flow at the entrance of a scramjet combustor. Helium is used as an inert substitute for hydrogen fuel. Both schlieren and PLIF techniques are applied to obtain mixing flowfield flow visualizations. The experimental PLIF is obtained by using a UV laser sheet to interrogate a plane of the flow by exciting fluorescence from the NO molecules, which are present in the AHSTF air. Consequently, the absence of signal in the resulting PLIF images is an indication of pure helium (fuel). The computational PLIF is obtained by applying a fluorescence model for NO to the results of the Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS) of the mixing flow field carried out using the VULCAN-CFD solver. This approach is required because the PLIF signal is a nonlinear function of not only NO concentration, but also pressure, temperature, and the flow velocity. This complexity allows additional flow features to be identified and compared with those obtained from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, however, such comparisons are only semiquantitative. Three-dimensional image reconstruction, similar to that used in magnetic resonance imaging, is also used to obtain images in the streamwise and spanwise planes from select cross-stream PLIF plane data. Synthetic schlieren is also computed from the RAS data. Good agreement between the experimental and computational results provides increased confidence in the CFD simulations for investigations of injector performance.

Drozda, Tomasz G.↗

Comparisons Between NO PLIF Imaging and CFD Simulations of Mixing Flowfields for High-Speed Fuel Injectors

The current work compares experimentally and computationally obtained nitric oxide (NO) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) images of the mixing flowfields for three types of high-speed fuel injectors: a strut, a ramp, and a rectangular flushwall. These injection devices, which exhibited promising mixing performance at lower flight Mach numbers, are currently being studied as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The EIMP aims to investigate scramjet fuel injection and mixing physics, and improve the understanding of underlying physical processes relevant to flight Mach numbers greater than eight. In the experiments conducted in the NASA Langley Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility (AHSTF), the injectors are placed downstream of a Mach 6 facility nozzle, which simulates the high Mach number air flow at the entrance of a scramjet combustor. Helium is used as an inert substitute for hydrogen fuel. Both schlieren and PLIF techniques are applied to obtain mixing flowfield flow visualizations. The experimental PLIF is obtained by using a UV laser sheet to interrogate a plane of the flow by exciting fluorescence from the NO molecules that are present in the AHSTF air. Consequently, the absence of signal in the resulting PLIF images is an indication of pure helium (fuel). The computational PLIF is obtained by applying a fluorescence model for NO to the results of the Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS) of the mixing flowfield carried out using the VULCAN-CFD solver. This approach is required because the PLIF signal is a nonlinear function of not only NO concentration, but also pressure, temperature, and the flow velocity. This complexity allows additional flow features to be identified and compared with those obtained from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, however, such comparisons are only semiquantitative. Three-dimensional image reconstruction, similar to that used in magnetic resonance imaging, is also used to obtain images in the streamwise and spanwise planes from select cross-stream PLIF plane data. Synthetic schlieren is also computed from the RAS data. Good agreement between the experimental and computational results provides increased confidence in the CFD simulations for investigations of injector performance.

PLIF↗

Comparisons Between NO PLIF Imaging and CFD Simulations of Mixing Flowfields for High-Speed Fuel Injectors

The current work compares experimentally and computationally obtained nitric oxide (NO) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) images of the mixing flowfields for three types of high-speed fuel injectors: a strut, a ramp, and a rectangular flushwall. These injection devices, which exhibited promising mixing performance at lower flight Mach numbers, are currently being studied as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The EIMP aims to investigate scramjet fuel injection and mixing physics, and improve the understanding of underlying physical processes relevant to flight Mach numbers greater than eight. In the experiments conducted in the NASA Langley Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility (AHSTF), the injectors are placed downstream of a Mach 6 facility nozzle, which simulates the high Mach number air flow at the entrance of a scramjet combustor. Helium is used as an inert substitute for hydrogen fuel. Both schlieren and PLIF techniques are applied to obtain mixing flowfield flow visualizations. The experimental PLIF is obtained by using a UV laser sheet to interrogate a plane of the flow by exciting fluorescence from the NO molecules that are present in the AHSTF air. Consequently, the absence of signal in the resulting PLIF images is an indication of pure helium (fuel). The computational PLIF is obtained by applying a fluorescence model for NO to the results of the Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS) of the mixing flowfield carried out using the VULCAN-CFD solver. This approach is required because the PLIF signal is a nonlinear function of not only NO concentration, but also pressure, temperature, and the flow velocity. This complexity allows additional flow features to be identified and compared with those obtained from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, however, such comparisons are only semiquantitative. Three-dimensional image reconstruction, similar to that used in magnetic resonance imaging, is also used to obtain images in the streamwise and spanwise planes from select cross-stream PLIF plane data. Synthetic schlieren is also computed from the RAS data. Good agreement between the experimental and computational results provides increased confidence in the CFD simulations for investigations of injector performance.

PLIF↗