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At least 163 records · Page 9

Characterizing a New Surface-Based Shortwave Cloud Retrieval Technique, Based on Transmitted Radiance for Soil and Vegetated Surface Types

This paper presents an approach using the GEneralized Nonlinear Retrieval Analysis (GENRA) tool and general inverse theory diagnostics including the maximum likelihood solution and the Shannon information content to investigate the performance of a new spectral technique for the retrieval of cloud optical properties from surface based transmittance measurements. The cumulative retrieval information over broad ranges in cloud optical thickness (tau), droplet effective radius (r(sub e)), and overhead sun angles is quantified under two conditions known to impact transmitted radiation; the variability in land surface albedo and atmospheric water vapor content. Our conclusions are: (1) the retrieved cloud properties are more sensitive to the natural variability in land surface albedo than to water vapor content; (2) the new spectral technique is more accurate (but still imprecise) than a standard approach, in particular for tau between 5 and 60 and r(sub e) less than approximately 20 nm; and (3) the retrieved cloud properties are dependent on sun angle for clouds of tau from 5 to 10 and r(sub e) less than 10 nm, with maximum sensitivity obtained for an overhead sun.

Shannon information content↗

Cassini VIMS Preliminary Exploration of Titan's Surface Hemispheric Albedo Dichotomy

We present preliminary evidence that suggests a hemispheric albedo dichotomy on Titan, the largest planetary satellite in the Solar System. We have also studied the photometric properties of several dark circular features on Titan's surface to test if they might be of impact origin. The evidence is derived from photometric analysis of selected surface regions taken at different Titanian longitudes and solar phase angles using images from the Cassini Saturn Orbiter Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS). The VIMS instrument is able to image Titan's surface at spectral windows (e.g. 2.02 microns) in its atmosphere where methane, the principal atmospheric absorber is transparent. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Nelson, R. M.↗

Calculation of the relative influence of cloud layers on received ultraviolet and integrated solar radiation

Discrete ordinate radiative transfer calculations are used to examine the relative influence of cloud layers on the received ultraviolet flux and the received solar energy for a plane parallel atmosphere. The wavelength dependence for the cloud influence on the integrated solar radiation is primarily a function of the interaction of the cloud layer with the surrounding atmosphere and the underlying surface. It is found that for uv wavelengths greater than 300 nm, the ratio of uv to solar energy flux transmission through the atmosphere is insensitive to changes of cloud height, cloud scattering parameters and surface albedo (for realistic values), but is dependent on cloud thickness. For wavelengths approaching and less than 300 nm, absorption by tropospheric ozone results in sensitivity to cloud height and surface albedo.

Spinhirne, J. D.↗

Prediction of Viking lander camera image quality

Formulations are presented that permit prediction of image quality as a function of camera performance, surface radiance properties, and lighting and viewing geometry. Predictions made for a wide range of surface radiance properties reveal that image quality depends strongly on proper camera dynamic range command and on favorable lighting and viewing geometry. Proper camera dynamic range commands depend mostly on the surface albedo that will be encountered. Favorable lighting and viewing geometries depend mostly on lander orientation with respect to the diurnal sun path over the landing site, and tend to be independent of surface albedo and illumination scattering function. Side lighting with low sun elevation angles (10 to 30 deg) is generally favorable for imaging spatial details and slopes, whereas high sun elevation angles are favorable for measuring spectral reflectances.

Huck, F. O.↗

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent By Sea Ice Processes and Feedbacks With the Ocean and the Atmosphere

The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly asymmetric, with a relatively slow increase after the summer minimum followed by a more rapid decrease after the winter maximum. This cycle is intimately linked to the seasonal cycle of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere, but sea ice processes as well as the exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean may also play a role. To quantify these contributions, a series of idealized sensitivity experiments have been performed with an eddy-permitting (∘) NEMO-LIM3 (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model version 3) Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM2 regional atmospheric model. In those experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake and release upon sea ice growth and melt, ice dynamics, and surface albedo. We find that the evolution of sea ice extent during the ice advance season is largely independent of the direct effect of the perturbation and appears thus mainly controlled by initial state in summer and subsequent insolation changes. In contrast, the melting rate varies strongly between the experiments during the retreat, in particular if the surface albedo or sea ice transport are modified, demonstrating a strong contribution of those elements to the evolution of ice coverage through spring and summer. As with the advance phase, the retreat is also influenced by conditions at the beginning of the melt season in September. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the model winter ice extent response to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere.

regional atmosphere ocean sea ice model↗

The Performance of Current Atmospheric Radiation Codes in Phase I of CIRC

The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC) is intended as an evolving and regularly updated reference source for evaluation of radiative transfer (RT) codes used in Global Climate Models and other atmospheric applications. In our presentation we will discuss our evaluation of the performance of 13 shortwave and 11 longwave RT codes that participated in Phase I of CIRC. CIRC differs from previous intercomparisons in that it relies on an observationally validated catalogue of cases. The seven CIRC Phase I baseline cases, five cloud-free, and two with overcast liquid clouds, are built around observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program that satisfy the goals .of Phase I, namely to examine RT model performance in realistic, yet not overly complex, atmospheric conditions. Besides the seven baseline cases, additional idealized "subcases" are also examined to facilitate interpretation of model errors. We will quantify individual model performance with respect to reference line-by-line calculations, and will also highlight RT code behavior for conditions of doubled CO2 , aspects of utilizing a spectral specification of surface albedo, and the impact of the inclusion of scattering in the thermal infrared. Our analysis suggests that RT codes should work towards improving their calculation of diffuse shortwave flux, shortwave absorption, treatment of spectral surface albedo, and shortwave CO2 forcing. Despite practical difficulties in comparing our results to previous results by the Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) conducted about 20 years ago, it appears that the current generation of RT codes do indeed perform better than the codes of the ICRCCM era. By enhancing the range of conditions under which participating codes are tested, future CIRC phases will hopefully allow even more rigorous examination of RT code performance.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Surface radiation budget imagery

Linear regressions which summarize the relationships between the turbulent fluxes of heat and latent heat of vaporization leaving the surface and surface albedos are given. This observation is based on a semi-empirical analysis of the data collected from sets of Landsat/TM (Thematic Mapper) imagery as the top of the atmosphere images have been converted into maps of surface radiation budget. A preliminary analysis shows that in spite of the land surface's temporal and spatial variability, the transfer of latent and sensible heat into the atmosphere would appear to be governed by the land surface albedo.

Kim, Hongsuk H.↗

Effects of dust on the heating of Mars' surface and atmosphere

An analysis performed to determine the effect dust particles suspended in Mars' atmosphere have on the radiation reaching the surface both directly and scattered by the dust is described. Additionally, the fraction of incident sunlight directly absorbed by the atmospheric dust is computed. These calculations are done for ranges of dust opacity, incidence angle, surface albedo, and dust albedo, representative of the conditions on Mars. The effect of atmospheric dust on the Bond albedo is discussed. It is shown that direct heating of the atmosphere by dust absorption of solar radiation is adequate to explain Mars' south polar spring temperature inversion. Under most circumstances the presence of dust in Mars' atmosphere produces a lowering of the average surface temperature; this is probably the cause of the anomalously slow south polar cap retreat of 1977. Explicit forms for both the surface heating and the atmospheric heating as a function of the dust opacity, incidence angle, surface albedo and dust albedo are given.

Davies, D. W.↗

Comparisons of Spectral Aerosol Single Scattering Albedo in Seoul, South Korea

Quantifying aerosol absorption at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths is important for monitoring air pollution and aerosol amounts using current (e.g., Aura/OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument)) and future (e.g., TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of POllution), GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) and Sentinel-4) satellite measurements. Measurements of column average atmospheric aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) are performed on the ground by the NASA AERONET (AEROsol robotic NETwork) in the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths and in the UV-VIS-NIR by the SKYNET (SKY radiometer NETwork) networks. Previous comparison studies have focused on VIS and NIR wavelengths due to the lack of co-incident measurements of aerosol and gaseous absorption properties in the UV. This study compares the SKYNET-retrieved SSA in the UV with the SSA derived from a combination of AERONET, MFRSR (MultiFilter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer), and Pandora (AMP) retrievals in Seoul, South Korea, in spring and summer 2016. The results show that the spectrally invariant surface albedo assumed in the SKYNET SSA retrievals leads to underestimated SSA compared to AMP values at near UV wavelengths. Re-processed SKYNET inversions using spectrally varying surface albedo, consistent with the AERONET retrieval improve agreement with AMP SSA. The combined AMP inversions allow for separating aerosol and gaseous (NO2 and O3) absorption and provide aerosol retrievals from the shortest UVB (305 nanometers) through VIS to NIR wavelengths (870 nanometers).

aerosol and gaseous absorption properties↗

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. IV - Impact of satellite remote sensing of slow canopy variables on performance of a hybrid biosphere model

Numerical experiments are conducted using the Ex-BATS model of Crosson and Weng (1993), which is an adaptation the Dickinson (1983, 1984) and Dickinson et al. (1986) biosphere model BATS. The purpose of these experiments is the assessment of the Ex-BATS performance when using remotely sensed data for the estimation of three key canopy variables retrieved from NOAA-AVHRR measurements: the total surface albedo, the leaf area index (LAI), and the nondiurnally varying component of stomatal resistance, r(s). The results of the simulations, which cover the entire FIFE 1987 time period, show that the satellite retrievals of r(s) are only 20 to 30 percent less accurate than the idealized results of the control experiment. The performance of the model which used satellite retrieval of the surface albedo and LAI was essentially equivalent to the hypothetical version.

Crosson, William L.↗

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

Comparison of Satellite-Derived TOA Shortwave Clear-Sky Fluxes to Estimates from GCM Simulations Constrained by Satellite Observations of Land Surface Characteristics

Clear-sky, upwelling shortwave flux at the top of the atmosphere (S(sub TOA raised arrow)), simulated using the atmospheric and land model components of the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3), is compared to corresponding observational estimates from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor. Improvements resulting from the use of land surface albedo derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain the simulations are also examined. Compared to CERES observations, CCSM3 overestimates global, annual averaged S(sub TOA raised arrow) over both land and oceans. However, regionally, CCSM3 overestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over some land and ocean areas while underestimating it over other sites. CCSM3 underestimates S(sub TOA raised arrow) over the Saharan and Arabian Deserts and substantial differences exist between CERES observations and CCSM3 over agricultural areas. Over selected sites, after using groundbased observations to remove systematic biases that exist in CCSM computation of S(sub TOA raised arrow), it is found that use of MODIS albedo improves the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow). Inability of coarse resolution CCSM3 simulation to resolve spatial heterogeneity of snowfall over high altitude sites such as the Tibetan Plateau causes overestimation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) in these areas. Discrepancies also exist in the simulation of S(sub TOA raised arrow) over ocean areas as CCSM3 does not account for the effect of wind speed on ocean surface albedo. This study shows that the radiative energy budget at the TOA is improved through the use of MODIS albedo in Global Climate Models.

Anantharaj, Valentine G.↗

Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m −2 over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m −2 . However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m −2 , due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates.

Falvo, Grant [Department of Plant, Soil and Microb↗

A Climatology of Midlatitude Continental Clouds from the ARM SGP Site: Cloud Fraction and Surface Radiative Forcing - Part II

Data collected at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (SCF) are analyzed to determine the monthly and hourly variations of cloud fraction and radiative forcing between January 1997 and December 2002. Cloud fractions are estimated for total cloud cover and for single-layered low (0-3 km), middle (3-6 km), and high clouds (more than 6 km) using ARM SCG ground-based paired lidar-radar measurements. Shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes are derived from up- and down-looking standard precision spectral pyranometers and precision infrared radiometer measurements with uncertainties of approximately 10 Wm(exp -2). The annual averages of total, and single-layered low, middle and high cloud fractions are 0.49, 0.11, 0.03, and 0.17, respectively. Both total and low cloud amounts peak during January and February and reach a minimum during July and August, high clouds occur more frequently than other types of clouds with a peak in summer. The average annual downwelling surface SW fluxes for total and low clouds (151 and 138 Wm(exp-2), respectively) are less than those under middle and high clouds (188 and 201 Wm(exp -2), respectively), but the downwelling LW fluxes (349 and 356 Wm(exp -2)) underneath total and low clouds are greater than those from middle and high clouds (337 and 333 Wm(exp -2)). Low clouds produce the largest LW warming (55 Wm(exp -2) and SW cooling (-91 Wm(exp -2)) effects with maximum and minimum absolute values in spring and summer, respectively. High clouds have the smallest LW warming (17 Wm(exp -2)) and SW cooling (-37 Wm(exp -2)) effects at the surface. All-sky SW CRF decreases and LW CRF increases with increasing cloud fraction with mean slopes of -0.984 and 0.616 Wm(exp -2)%(exp -1), respectively. Over the entire diurnal cycle, clouds deplete the amount of surface insolation more than they add to the downwelling LW flux. The calculated CRFs do not appear to be significantly affected by uncertainties in data sampling and clear-sky screening. Traditionally, cloud radiative forcing includes, not only the radiative impact of the hydrometeors, but also the changes in the environment. Taken together over the ARM SCF, changes in humidity and surface albedo between clear and cloudy conditions offset approximately 20% of the NET radiative forcing caused by the cloud hydrometeors alone. Variations in water vapor, on average, account for 10% and 83% of the SW and LW CRFs, respectively, in total cloud cover conditions. The error analysis further reveals that the cloud hydrometeors dominate the SW CRF, while water vapor changes are most important for LW flux changes in cloudy skies. Similar studies over other locales are encouraged where water and surface albedo changes from clear to cloudy conditions may be much different than observed over the ARM SCF.

Xi, B.↗

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States

Abstract. Seasonal snow has crucial impacts on climate, ecosystems, and humans, but it is vulnerable to global warming. The land component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) mechanistically simulates snow processes from accumulation, canopy interception, compaction, and snow aging to melt. Although high-quality field measurements, remote sensing snow products, and data assimilation products with high spatio-temporal resolution are available, there has been no systematic evaluation of the snow properties and phenology in ELM. This study comprehensively evaluates ELM snow simulations over the western United States at 0.125∘ resolution during 2001–2019 using the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) in situ networks, MODIS remote sensing products (i.e., MCD43 surface albedo product), the spatially and temporally complete (STC) snow-covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) and MODIS dust and radiative forcing in snow (MODDRFS) products (STC-MODSCAG/STC-MODDRFS), and the snow property inversion from remote sensing (SPIReS) product and two data assimilation products of snow water equivalent and snow depth – i.e., University of Arizona (UA) and SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Overall the ELM simulations are consistent with the benchmarking datasets and reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, interannual variability, and elevation gradients for different snow properties including snow cover fraction (fsno), surface albedo (αsur) over snow cover regions, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow depth (Dsno). However, there are large biases of fsno with dense forest cover and αsur in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada in winter, compared to the MODIS products. There are large discrepancies of snow albedo, snow grain size, and light-absorbing particle-induced snow albedo reduction between ELM and the MODIS products, attributed to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing data, snow aging processes in ELM, and remote sensing retrievals. Against UA and SNODAS, ELM has a mean bias of −20.7 mm (−35.9 %) and −20.4 mm (−35.5 %), respectively, for spring, and −13.8 mm (−27.8 %) and −10.2 mm (−22.2 %), respectively, for winter. ELM shows a relatively high correlation with SNOTEL SWE, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.69 but negative mean biases of −122.7 mm. Compared to the snow phenology of STC-MODSCAG and SPIReS, ELM shows delayed snow accumulation onset dates by 17.3 and 12.4 d, earlier snow end dates by 35.5 and 26.8 d, and shorter snow durations by 52.9 and 39.5 d, respectively. This study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving ELM representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of 10 Year Record of Aerosol Optical Depth from OMI UV Observations

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the EOS-Aura satellite provides information on aerosol optical properties by making use of the large sensitivity to aerosol absorption in the near-ultraviolet (UV) spectral region. Another important advantage of using near UV observations for aerosol characterization is the low surface albedo of all terrestrial surfaces in this spectral region that reduces retrieval errors associated with land surface reflectance characterization. In spite of the 13 × 24 square kilometers coarse sensor footprint, the OMI near UV aerosol algorithm (OMAERUV) retrieves aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single-scattering albedo under cloud-free conditions from radiance measurements at 354 and 388 nanometers. We present validation results of OMI AOD against space and time collocated Aerosol Robotic Network measured AOD values over multiple stations representing major aerosol episodes and regimes. OMAERUV's performance is also evaluated with respect to those of the Aqua-MODIS Deep Blue and Terra-MISR AOD algorithms over arid and semi-arid regions in Northern Africa. The outcome of the evaluation analysis indicates that in spite of the "row anomaly" problem, affecting the sensor since mid-2007, the long-term aerosol record shows remarkable sensor stability.

aerosol optical depth↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗