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At least 163 records · Page 9

Thermospheric Heating and Cooling Times During Geomagnetic Storms, Including Extreme Events

We present the first quantitative calculations of thermospheric heating and cooling times for geomagnetic storms of different intensity, including extreme events. We utilize the neutral mass density database of the CHAllenging Mini‐satellite Payload and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment missions to produce thermospheric global system response to geomagnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections via superposed epoch analysis during May 2001 to December 2015. Storm events are grouped in five different categories based on the minimum value of the SYM‐H index. We calculate the time from storm onset for the thermosphere to reach maximum intensification (heating time) and the time from onset for the thermosphere to recover (cooling time). We find that heating and cooling times decrease as storm intensity increases and the effect is more pronounced for the cooling times. For extreme storms, the thermospheric heating time is 9.5 hr, while the cooling time is 22 hr.

Zesta, Eftyhia↗

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

Storm-Time Variability of Terrestrial Hydrogen Exosphere: Kinetic Simulation Results

Recent studies of TWINS Lyman-α observations have reported an increase in geocoronal column brightness during geomagnetic storms, indicating enhanced exospheric hydrogen atom density (NH). This suggests a complex role of exospheric neutrals in determining storm-time magnetosphere dynamics and their energy release through charge-exchange processes. We developed a Model for Analyzing Terrestrial Exosphere (MATE) to investigate storm-time exospheric behaviors and their physical drivers. MATE traces test hydrogen atoms backward in time from locations in the exosphere to a nominal exobase altitude of 500 km, employing Newtonian mechanics with gravitational force. The model then calculates the phase-space densities (PSDs) of test hydrogen atoms at the exobase using the Maxwellian distribution with physics-based exobase conditions from the TIMEGCM upper atmosphere model. MATE maps PSDs at the exobase to the exosphere using Liouville’s Theorem under collisionless assumptions and derives NH by integrating the PSDs across velocity space. We conducted MATE simulation before, during, and after a minor geomagnetic storm from 12 to 18 June 2008, and compared the model results with NH estimates from the TWINS geocorona data. MATE reproduces storm-time density enhancements soon after the minimum Dst is reached, matching well with a general trend of TWINS NH estimates. The results suggest that upper atmospheric heating during a geomagnetic storm increases the number of ballistic and escaping hydrogen atoms entering the exosphere from the exobase, thereby boosting NH. However, the magnitude of modeled NH mismatches the TWINS NH estimates. The potential mechanisms of this density discrepancy include the physics excluded in the MATE model — such as neutralneutral collisions, neutral-plasma charge exchange, solar radiation pressure, and photoionization — as well as the higher exobase hydrogen density of TIMEGCM compared to typical empirical values, which will be addressed in future.

Hyunju K Connor↗

Energy Transport in the Thermosphere During the Solar Storms of April 2002

The dramatic solar storm events of April 2002 deposited a large amount of energy into the Earth's upper atmosphere, substantially altering the thermal structure, the chemical composition, the dynamics, and the radiative environment. We examine the flow of energy within the thermosphere during this storm period from the perspective of infrared radiation transport and heat conduction. Observations from the SABER instrument on the TIMED satellite are coupled with computations based on the ASPEN thermospheric general circulation model to assess the energy flow. The dominant radiative response is associated with dramatically enhanced infrared emission from nitric oxide at 5.3 microns from which a total of approx. 7.7 x 10(exp 23) ergs of energy are radiated during the storm. Energy loss rates due to NO emission exceed 2200 Kelvin per day. In contrast, energy loss from carbon dioxide emission at 15 microns is only approx. 2.3% that of nitric oxide. Atomic oxygen emission at 63 microns is essentially constant during the storm. Energy loss from molecular heat conduction may be as large as 3.8% of the NO emission. These results confirm the "natural thermostat" effect of nitric oxide emission as the primary mechanism by which storm energy is lost from the thermosphere below 210 km.

SOLAR STORMS↗

Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair-weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair-weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non-local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanisms for Mars dust storms.

Characteristics of the Mars global dust storm are reviewed. At the Mariner 9 encounter, the dust consisted of highly absorbing particles distributed rather uniformly up to great height (about 50 km). These observations together with temperature distributions inferred from the Mariner 9 IRIS by Hanel et al. (1972) are used to estimate global wind systems during the dust storm. The global distribution and direction of light surface streaks indicate that the axisymmetric circulation was a dominant part of flow during the dust storm. The axisymmetric winds may become strong enough to raise dust over wide areas of Mars' tropics under unusual conditions: the incoming solar radiation must be near its seasonal maximum, the static stability must be low, and the atmosphere must be able to absorb and re-emit a sizeable fraction of the incoming radiation. Strong winds around the periphery of the retreating south polar cap would be driven by the temperature gradient at the cap edge and by the mass outflow due to subliming CO2. These polar winds could generate local dust storms, raising the general level of dustiness, and providing the conditions necessary for onset of a global dust storm.

Leovy, C. B.↗

The major Martian yellow storm of 1971

Extensive earth-based photography produced by the International Planetary Patrol has been used to map the positions of brightened areas (clouds) during the 1971 storm on Mars. The mapping was done on an hourly basis from two days prior to the onset of the storm through its twenty-second day. Summaries of these maps are presented to illustrate the changes that take place during the course of a Martian day, as well as the changes from one day to the next. It is shown that the storm goes through a daily cycle of regeneration, although each day it advances farther than it did the day before. The possible influence of Martian topography on the progress of the storm is examined. Comparisons between red- and blue-filter photographs of the storm are presented cartographically and are discussed.

Martin, L. J.↗

Decameter storm radiation. II

The height, size, directivity, and lifetime of decametric storm sources are investigated. The height of the continuum sources is determined from the rotation rate, and the gradient of electron density for the regions of storm origin is computed by assuming that the radiation originates at the plasma frequency. The mean angular size of the sources is found to be quite large (increasing with decreasing frequency), the storm continuum is strongly directive toward the disk center, and east-west asymmetry is observed at decameter wavelengths. Two distinct classes of type III bursts are observed during storms: 'off-fringe' (displaced in position from the continuum source) and 'on-fringe' (coinciding in position with the continuum). A model of the storm region is proposed in which the 'on-fringe' bursts originate in regions of diverging field lines above closed magnetic loops and the 'off-fringe' bursts are excited by energetic electron streams having access to open field lines at the base of the loops.

Gergely, T. E.↗

Aircraft measurements and analysis of severe storms: 1975 field experiment

Three aircraft and instrumentation systems were acquired in support of the severe storm surveillance program. The data results indicate that the original concept of a highly mobile research aircraft capability for obtaining detailed measurements of wind, temperature, dew point, etc., near and within specifically designated severe storms is entirely feasible and has been demonstrated for the first time by this program. This program is unique in that it is designed to be highly mobile in order to move to and/or with the developing storm systems to obtain the necessary measurements. Previous programs have all been fixed to a particular location and therefore have had to wait for the storms to come within their network. The present research is designed around a highly mobile aircraft measurements group in order to maximize the storm cases during the field measurements program.

Sinclair, P. C.↗

Conceptual design of an airborne laser Doppler velocimeter system for studying wind fields associated with severe local storms

An airborne laser Doppler velocimeter was evaluated for diagnostics of the wind field associated with an isolated severe thunderstorm. Two scanning configurations were identified, one a long-range (out to 10-20 km) roughly horizontal plane mode intended to allow probing of the velocity field around the storm at the higher altitudes (4-10 km). The other is a shorter range (out to 1-3 km) mode in which a vertical or horizontal plane is scanned for velocity (and possibly turbulence), and is intended for diagnostics of the lower altitude region below the storm and in the out-flow region. It was concluded that aircraft flight velocities are high enough and severe storm lifetimes are long enough that a single airborne Doppler system, operating at a range of less than about 20 km, can view the storm area from two or more different aspects before the storm characteristics change appreciably.

Thomson, J. A. L.↗

Storm-associated variations of equatorially mirroring ring current protons, 1-800 keV, at constant first adiabatic invariant

Explorer 45 observations of ring current protons mirroring near the equator, 1-800 keV, are presented at constant first adiabatic invariant mu throughout the period of the December 17, 1971, geomagnetic storm. The parameter mu is obtained from simultaneous magnetic field and particle observations. Particle deceleration in response to the storm time magnetic field decrease causes ring current measurements viewed at constant energy to underestimate the storm time increase in proton intensities at energies not exceeding 200 keV. This adiabatic deceleration also accounts for the large flux decreases observed at energies above 200 keV during the storm, in contradiction with previous results (Soraas and Davis, 1968) obtained using a model for the storm time magnetic field.

Lyons, L. R.↗

Observations of neutral composition and related ionospheric variations during a magnetic storm in February 1974

The neutral-atmosphere composition experiment on Atmosphere Explorer C measured N2, O, Ar, and He densities during a magnetic storm at altitudes down to about 160 km. At latitudes above 45 deg N, N2 and Ar densities generally increase during the storm, while He and O densities decrease. Below 45 deg N all densities tend to increase during the storm. The density increases at perigee indicate that density- or temperature-profile changes are taking place below 160 km. The return to prestorm conditions is very slow, demonstrating the integrating effect of the atmospheric response. A recent theoretical model incorporating thermospheric circulation and diffusion effects reproduces the longitudinally averaged data, including latitude trends and the asymmetry about the storm maximum. Comparison with the mass-spectrometer and incoherent-scatter empirical model shows qualitative agreement with latitude trends but not with storm asymmetry, while the earlier J71 model based on total mass density is not in agreement with observed latitudinal trends. A close correlation is found between in situ O/N2 measurements and in situ and ground-based ionosonde measurements of electron density.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Ionospheric Doppler sounder as remote sensing for detection and prediction of severe storms

Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe storms are detected by a ground-based ionospheric sounding array, and the location of the severe storms responsible for the wave generation is determined by group ray path computation. Computations based on six events during the extreme tornado outbreak of April 3, 1974, and five single tornado events show that the wave sources are located near the location where tornadoes touchdown more than one hour later. In the hurricane case, the results indicate that waves were generated along the storm track more than 3 hours ahead of the actual location of the storm. The possibility of the development of the present system as a remote sensor for the detection and prediction of severe storms is discussed.

Hung, R. J.↗

Dust storms - Great Plains, Africa, and Mars

Dust storms in the Great Plains of North America and in the Sahara Desert are analyzed on the basis of imagery from the geostationary Synchronous Meteorological Satellite. The onset time, location and areal extent of the dust storms are studied. Over land surfaces, contrast enhancement techniques are needed to obtain an adequate picture of dust storm development. In addition, infrared imagery may provide a means of monitoring the strong horizontal temperature gradients characteristic of dust cloud boundaries. Analogies between terrestrial dust storms and the airborne rivers of dust created by major Martian dust storms are also drawn.

Woiceshyn, P. M.↗

Viking observations of Martian dust storms

Local dust storms, global dust storms and background aerosol in the Martian atmosphere have been recorded by the Viking orbiters and landers. Local dust clouds are most prevalent in certain areas of the southern hemisphere during spring; local storms at the edge of the retreating south polar cap and in the 15 to 25 deg latitude band are discussed. A major global storm characterized by clouds as high as 30 km and mean meridional wind speeds of 10 m/sec has also been studied. The global storms monitored by the Viking mission spread rapidly, with the most intense activity limited to a brief period.

Hunt, G. E.↗

Interactions Between Convective Storms and Their Environment

The ways in which intense convective storms interact with their environment are considered for a number of specific severe storm situations. A physical model of subcloud wind fields and vertical wind profiles was developed to explain the often observed intensification of convective storms that move along or across thermal boundaries. A number of special, unusually dense, data sets were used to substantiate features of the model. GOES imagery was used in conjunction with objectively analyzed surface wind data to develop a nowcast technique that might be used to identify specific storm cells likely to become tornadic. It was shown that circulations associated with organized meso-alpha and meso-beta scale storm complexes may, on occasion, strongly modify tropospheric thermodynamic patterns and flow fields.

Maddox, R. A.↗

Observations of energetic helium ions in the earth's radiation belts during a sequence of geomagnetic storms

Observations of energetic (MeV) helium ions made with Explorer 45 during a sequence of magnetic storms during June through December of 1972 are presented. It is noted that the first of these storms started on June 17 and had a Dst index excursion to -190 gamma and that the MeV helium ions were perturbed primarily beyond 3 earth radii in the equatorial radiation belts with a typical flux increase of an order of magnitude at L equal to 4. The second storm period was in August and was associated with very major solar flare activity. While the Dst extremum was at best 35 gamma less than the June storm, this period can be characterized as irregular (or multi-storm) with strong compression of the magnetosphere and very large (order of magnitude) MeV helium ion flux enhancements down to L approximately equal to 2. After this injection, the trapped helium ion fluxes showed positive spherical slope with the peak beyond 3.15 MeV at L equal to 2.5; at the lowest observable L shells, little flux decay was seen during the remainder of the year.

Spjeldvik, W. N.↗

Operational evaluation of thunderstorm penetration test flights during project Storm Hazards '80

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is conducting a research project called Storm Hazards '80 in order to study the prediction, detectability and avoidance of the hazards of severe storms for aircraft operations. The project, using a highly instrumented NASA F-106B airplane to penetrate thunderstorms, gathered and correlated data from both airborne and ground based instrumentation. The objectives of this project are to determine the effects of lightning on the design and operation of aircraft composite structures and digital electronic systems. The data will be used to determine the correlation of lightning hazards with other severe storm hazards, such as heavy precipitation, hail, turbulence and wind-shear, in order to develop an initial data base for use in design and avoidance. The NASA F-106B was equipped with a weather radar, stormscope, lightning measurement instrumentation and air sampling equipment. This paper will focus on the operational aspects of thunderstorm penetrations and the pilot techniques used to avoid the extremely hazardous portions of the storm such as the tornadoes and hail. It will deal with the effects of the storm elements on the aircraft hardware, avionics and the crew.

Keyser, G. L., Jr.↗