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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

A methodology was developed a assess the upset susceptibility/reliability of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general purpose microprocessor were studied. The upset tests involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080 based microcomputer from which upset error data was recorded. The program code on the microprocessor during tests is designed to exercise all of the machine cycles and memory addressing techniques implemented in the 8080 central processing unit. A statistical analysis is presented in which possible correlations are established between the probability of upset occurrence and transient signal inputs during specific processing states and operations. A stochastic upset susceptibility model for the 8080 microprocessor is presented. The susceptibility of this microprocessor to upset, once analog transients have entered the system, is determined analytically by calculating the state probabilities of the stochastic model.

Belcastro, C. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging the Multiplatform Precipitation Feature Database of Combined Ground Radar and Satellite Lightning Observations for Convective Studies

The Multiplatform Precipitation Feature (MPF) database combines coincident observations of lightning from space with satellite- and ground-based radar data in a storm-based, feature-defined framework. The concept for the MPF database stems from the motivation to extend the scale and scope of investigations into the complex connections between ice precipitation, updrafts, and lightning in thunderstorms. The earliest iteration of the MPF database incorporates NASA International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor (ISS LIS) observations alongside the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and Validation Network (VN). Because of the specific role of the GPM VN in forming the first MPFs, this subset is referred to as the VNMPF database. The synthesis of these multi-scale and multi-resolution observations leveraged each platform’s unique insights into convective properties and processes, offering a more complete view of deep convection over the large viewing area afforded by satellite coverage. The VNMPF database established the feasibility and infrastructure to combine microphysical, kinematic, and lightning observations from multiple satellite- and ground-based platforms. Following this successful proof-of-concept, recent progress has expanded the MPF database to make use of coincident ISS LIS lightning observations and data from the operational Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network, where individual WSR-88D proximity facilitates vertical wind retrievals via dual-Doppler analysis. These database changes have expanded the scope of the dataset by removing the requirement for coincident GPM and ISS LIS overpasses. This increases the sample size dramatically and facilitates analysis of higher-resolution radar-derived properties. These advancements allow both storm-scale and unprecedented broad statistical analyses of deep convection from electrical, kinematic, and microphysical perspectives over the contiguous United States. This presentation outlines the construction of the new MPF database and introduces some preliminary analyses of the convection captured within it. Early results summarize relationships based on updraft characteristics ascertained from WSR-88D dual-Doppler three-dimensional wind retrievals, properties of ice microphysics gleaned from dual-polarization analyses, and electrical characteristics observed by the ISS LIS. The expanded scale and scope offered by more than five years of ISS LIS observations enable new insights into regional and seasonal variations in the microphysical, kinematic, and electrical relationships of convection. Analysis of the database highlights the potential for advancements in lightning meteorology made possible by combining large-scale spaceborne lightning detection and proven storm interrogation tools such as operational polarimetric Doppler radar.

Lightning↗
NASA NTRS1992

A monitor for the laboratory evaluation of control integrity in digital control systems operating in harsh electromagnetic environments

This paper presents a strategy for dynamically monitoring digital controllers in the laboratory for susceptibility to electromagnetic disturbances that compromise control integrity. The integrity of digital control systems operating in harsh electromagnetic environments can be compromised by upsets caused by induced transient electrical signals. Digital system upset is a functional error mode that involves no component damage, can occur simultaneously in all channels of a redundant control computer, and is software dependent. The motivation for this work is the need to develop tools and techniques that can be used in the laboratory to validate and/or certify critical aircraft controllers operating in electromagnetically adverse environments that result from lightning, high-intensity radiated fields (HIRF), and nuclear electromagnetic pulses (NEMP). The detection strategy presented in this paper provides dynamic monitoring of a given control computer for degraded functional integrity resulting from redundancy management errors, control calculation errors, and control correctness/effectiveness errors. In particular, this paper discusses the use of Kalman filtering, data fusion, and statistical decision theory in monitoring a given digital controller for control calculation errors.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Summary of the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) and Recent Results

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center introduced the Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) a couple of years ago to combine routine state-of-the-art measurements of lightning with empirical laboratory results of lightning NOx production. The routine measurements included VHF lightning source data [such as from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)], and ground flash location, peak current, and stroke multiplicity data from the National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN). Following these initial runs of LNOM, the model was updated to include several non-return stroke lightning NOx production mechanisms, and provided the impact of lightning NOx on an August 2006 run of CMAQ. In this study, we review the evolution of the LNOM in greater detail and discuss the model?s latest upgrades and applications. Whereas previous applications were limited to five summer months of data for North Alabama thunderstorms, the most recent LNOM analyses cover several years. The latest statistics of ground and cloud flash NOx production are provided.

Koshak, William↗
NASA NTRS1984

Tortuosity of lightning return stroke channels

Data obtained from photographs of lightning are presented on the tortuosity of return stroke channels. The data were obtained by making piecewise linear fits to the channels, and recording the cartesian coordinates of the ends of each linear segment. The mean change between ends of the segments was nearly zero in the horizontal direction and was about eight meters in the vertical direction. Histograms of these changes are presented. These data were used to create model lightning channels and to predict the electric fields radiated during return strokes. This was done using a computer generated random walk in which linear segments were placed end-to-end to form a piecewise linear representation of the channel. The computer selected random numbers for the ends of the segments assuming a normal distribution with the measured statistics. Once the channels were simulated, the electric fields radiated during a return stroke were predicted using a transmission line model on each segment. It was found that realistic channels are obtained with this procedure, but only if the model includes two scales of tortuosity: fine scale irregularities corresponding to the local channel tortuosity which are superimposed on large scale horizontal drifts. The two scales of tortuosity are also necessary to obtain agreement between the electric fields computed mathematically from the simulated channels and the electric fields radiated from real return strokes. Without large scale drifts, the computed electric fields do not have the undulations characteristics of the data.

Levine, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes.

Gatlin, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2004

Perspectives on African Ozone from Sondes, Dobson and Aircraft Measurements

We have been studying variability in ozone over Africa using data from ozonesondes (vertical profiles from surface to stratosphere), aircraft (the MOZAIC dataset with cruise altitude and landing/takeoff profiles) and the ground (Dobson spectrophotometer total ozone column measurement). The following may give context for ozone investigations during AMMA: 1. Total ozone measurements since 1989 show considerable variability in mean value among the African stations in Algeria, Kenya, Egypt, South Africa, as well as in seasonal cycles and year-to-year. Trends are not evident. 2. The impacts of convection, stratospheric injection, biomass burning and lightning appear in ozone sounding profile data. Time-series analysis and case studies point to periodic influences of long-range interactions with the Atlantic ("ozone paradox," wave-one") and Indian Oceans. 3. Tropospheric ozone variations, observed in tropospheric profiles and integrated column amount, follow general seasonal patterns but short- term variability is so strong that simple averages are inadequate for describing "climatology" and statistical classification approaches may be required.

Thompson, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Applied Meteorology Unit: Nineteen Years Successfully Transitioning Research into Operations for America's Space Program

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology transition and technique development to improve operational weather support to the Space Shuttle and the entire American space program. The AMU is funded and managed by NASA and operated by a contractor that provides five meteorologists with a diverse mix of advanced degrees, operational experience, and associated skills including data processing, statistics, and the development of graphical user interfaces. The AMU's primary customers are the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group at NASA Johnson Space Center, and the National Weather Service Melbourne FL Forecast Office. The AMU has transitioned research into operations for nineteen years and worked on a wide range of topics, including new forecasting techniques for lightning probability, synoptic peak winds,.convective winds, and summer severe weather; satellite tools to predict anvil cloud trajectories and evaluate camera line of sight for Space Shuttle launch; optimized radar scan strategies; evaluated and implemented local numerical models; evaluated weather sensors; and many more. The AMU has completed 113 projects with 5 more scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010. During this rich history, the AMU and its customers have learned many lessons on how to effectively transition research into operations. Some of these lessons learned include collocating with the operational customer and periodically visiting geographically separated customers, operator submitted projects, consensus tasking process, use of operator primary advocates for each project, customer AMU liaisons with experience in both operations and research, flexibility in adapting the project plan based on lessons learned during the project, and incorporating training and other transition assistance into the project plans. Operator involvement has been critical to the AMU's remarkable success and many awards from NASA, the National Weather Association, and two citations from the Navy's Center of Excellence for Best Manufacturing Practices. This paper will present the AMU's proven methods and explain how they may be applied by other organizations to effectively transition research into operations.

Madura, John T.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Lightning return stroke models

We test the two most commonly used lightning return stroke models, Bruce-Golde and transmission line, against subsequent stroke electric and magnetic field wave forms measured simultaneously at near and distant stations and show that these models are inadequate to describe the experimental data. We then propose a new return stroke model that is physically plausible and that yields good approximations to the measured two-station fields. Using the new model, we derive return stroke charge and current statistics for about 100 subsequent strokes.

Lin, Y. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoXO Ocean Color Instrument (OCX) Spatial and Temporal Coverage Assessment

NOAA’s next generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system will advance Earth observations from geostationary orbit. GeoXO will supply vital information supporting the U.S. weather, ocean, and climate operations. The recommended three-satellite constellation includes spacecrafts at the current GOES-East and GOES-West positions that will carry an imager, lightning mapper, and an ocean color (OCX) instrument. In this poster we describe an assessment of U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) availability for OCX observations, based on EEZ view geometry, solar angle range over the year, sun glint, as well as cloud climatology. The availability for observations for each EEZ region is estimated per day of the year, as function of atmospheric mass factor (AMF) and sun glint. In addition, cloud climatology – based on statistics derived from three years of GOES-16 ABI cloud mask – is considered to determine the fraction of cloud-free OCX observations for each region as function of time of day and season. The results of such assessments can be used to optimize OCX collections and potentially explore regions outside the EEZ.

Boryana Efremova↗
NASA NTRS2004

Brown Cloud Pollution and Smog Ozone Transport 6,000 km to the Tropical Atlantic: Mechanism and Sensing

We have found repeated illustrations in the maps of Total Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) of apparent transport of ozone from the Indian Ocean to the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Most interesting are examples that coincide with the INDOEX observations of late northern winter. Three soundings with the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network help confirm and quantify degree of influence of pollution, lightning, and stratospheric sources, suggesting that perhaps 40% of increased Atlantic ozone could be Asian pollution during periods of maximum identified in the TTO maps. This analysis also indicates a mechanism for such extended transport. We outline recurrent periods of apparent ozone transport from Indian to Atlantic Ocean regions outside the late-winter period. Clearly brown-cloud aerosol affects tropospheric ozone, both limiting its chemical production and also potentially obscuring its detection by the TOMS instrument. Introductory statistical studies will be presented, evaluating the role of tropopause meteorology, aerosol, and other factors in the modifying the relationship between true tropospheric ozone measured by SHADOZ and the TTO product, with suggestions for extending the product.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2005

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): A Network Overview

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is s a 3-D VHF regional lightning detection system that provides on-orbit algorithm validation and instrument performance assessments for the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor, as well as information on storm kinematics and updraft evolution that offers the potential to improve severe storm warning lead time by up t o 50% and decrease te false alarm r a t e ( for non-tornado producing storms). In support of this latter function, the LMA serves as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. The LMA, which became operational i n November 2001, consists of VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC), which is on t h e campus of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The LMA system locates the sources of impulsive VHF radio signals s from lightning by accurately measuring the time that the signals aririve at the different receiving stations. Each station's records the magnitude and time of the peak lightning radiation signal in successive 80 ms intervals within a local unused television channel (channel 5, 76-82 MHz in our case ) . Typically hundreds of sources per flash can be reconstructed, which i n t u r n produces accurate 3-dimensional lightning image maps (nominally <50 m error within 150 la. range). The data are transmitted back t o a base station using 2.4 GHz wireless Ethernet data links and directional parabolic grid antennas. There are four repeaters in the network topology and the links have an effective data throughput rate ranging from 600 kbits s -1 t o 1.5 %its s -1. This presentation provides an overview of t h e North Alabama network, the data processing (both real-time and post processing) and network statistics.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A summary of whistlers observed by Voyager 1 at Jupiter

We summarize the Voyager 1 observations of whistlers at Jupiter in order to provide a basis for further analyses of the density profile of the Io plasma torus as well as to support studies of atmospheric lightning at Jupiter. All the whistlers detected by Voyager 1 fell into three general regions in the torus at radial distances ranging beteen 5 and 6 R sub J. An analysis of the broadband wave amplitudes measured by the Voyayer 1 plasma wave instrument and estimates of the peak whistler amplitudes imply the grouping of whistlers was due to variations in the sensitivity of the receiver to whistlers and not to variations in the source or propagation paths of the whistlers. The whistler dispersions are presented in statistical form for each of the three groups of events and analyzed in view of the structure of the Io plasma torus as determined by plasma probe measurements. The results of these analyses give source locations for the whistlers at the foot of the magnetic field lines threading the torus in both hemispheres and over a range of longitudes.

Kurth, W. S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiosonde Observations of Environments Supporting Deep Moist Convection Initiation during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

The Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) projects deployed a high-spatiotemporal-resolution radiosonde network to examine environments supporting deep convection in the complex terrain of central Argentina. This study aims to characterize atmospheric profiles most representative of the near-cloud environment (in time and space) to identify the mesoscale ingredients affecting storm initiation and growth. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation analysis of the soundings reveals that there is considerable environmental heterogeneity, with boundary layer thermodynamic and kinematic fields becoming statistically uncorrelated on scales of 1–2 h and 30 km. Using this as guidance, we examine a variety of environmental parameters derived from soundings collected within close proximity (30 km in space and 30 min in time) of 44 events over 9 days where the atmosphere either: 1) supported the initiation of sustained precipitating convection, 2) yielded weak and short-lived precipitating convection, or 3) produced no precipitating convection in disagreement with numerical forecasts from convection-allowing models (i.e., Null events). There are large statistical differences between the Null event environments and those supporting any convective precipitation. Null event profiles contained larger convective available potential energy, but had low free-tropospheric relative humidity, higher freezing levels, and evidence of limited horizontal convergence near the terrain at low levels that likely suppressed deep convective growth. Here, we also present evidence from the radiosonde and satellite measurements that flow–terrain interactions may yield gravity wave activity that affects CI outcome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events: 2021 Update

Loss-of-offsite power (LOOP) can have a negative impact on a nuclear power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study were based on the operating experience during calendar years 1987–2021, while the most recent 15-year data (i.e., from 2007–2021) were used for most analyses in this report. LOOP events during critical operation that did not result in a reactor trip are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four LOOP event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. These categories (and the All-LOOPs group which contains all LOOPs without regarding of the four categories) could be further grouped by whether a LOOP event occurred during critical operation, during shutdown operation, or during all operations. The following decreasing trends in the LOOP occurrence rates were identified for the most recent 10-year period (2012–2021): All-LOOPs during critical operation, switchyard-centered LOOPs during critical operation, and grid-related LOOPs during critical operation. Adverse trends in LOOP durations continue for switchyard-centered LOOPs during all operations, All-LOOPs during all operations, and All-LOOPs during shutdown operation for the 1997–2021 period. Statistical tests show the LOOP counts for the period of 2007–2021 are not uniformly distributed across the 12 months, and variation among the months exists for grid-related LOOPs during all operations, All-LOOPs during all operations, and All-LOOPs during critical operation. The engineering analysis of LOOP data showed for the period of 2007–2021, the equipment failure events were dominated by failures of relay and other; human errors have been less frequent and occurred primarily in maintenance and switching; and weather were dominated by tornadoes then by lightning and hurricane. Weather was the cause for 45% of LOOPs for the last fifteen years (2007– 2021) but only for 20% of LOOPs for the previous 20 years (1987–2006) .

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events: Update

Loss-of-offsite power (LOOP) can have a negative impact on a nuclear power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study were based on the operating experience during calendar years 1987–2020, while the most recent 15-year data (i.e., from 2006–2020) were used for most analyses in this report. LOOP events during critical operation that did not result in a reactor trip are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four LOOP event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather related. Highly significant decreasing trends in the LOOP occurrence rates were identified for All-LOOPs during critical operation (p-value = 0.001) and switchyard-centered LOOPs during critical operation (p-value = 0.002) for the most recent 10-year period (2011–2020). Adverse trends in LOOP durations continue for switchyard-centered LOOPs (p-value = 0.005), All-LOOPs (p-value = 0.019), as well as All-LOOPs during shutdown operation (p-value = 0.003). Statistical tests show the LOOP counts are not uniformly distributed across the 12 months, and variation among the months exists for plant-centered LOOPs (p-value = 0.028), grid-related LOOPs (p-value = 0.021), All-LOOPs (p-value = 0.003), and All-LOOPs during critical operation (p-value = 0.008). The engineering analysis of LOOP data showed for the period of 2006–2020, the equipment failure events were dominated by failures of circuits and relay; human errors have been less frequent and occurred primarily in maintenance; and weather events were dominated by tornadoes and lightning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗