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At least 163 records · Page 9

Statistical Validation of Multiple Related Data Sets—Case Study Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer Satellite Data

Abstract Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strong Coupling of Hydrodynamics and Reactions in Nuclear Statistical Equilibrium for Modeling Convection in Massive Stars

We build on the simplified spectral deferred corrections (SDC) coupling of hydrodynamics and reactions to handle the case of nuclear statistical equilibrium (NSE) and electron/positron captures/decays in the cores of massive stars. Our approach blends a traditional reaction network on the grid with a tabulated NSE state from a very large, ${\mathcal O }(100)$ nuclei network. We demonstrate how to achieve second-order accuracy in the simplified-SDC framework when coupling NSE to hydrodynamics, with the ability to evolve the star on the hydrodynamics time step. We discuss the application of this method to convection in massive stars leading up to core collapse. We also show how to initialize the initial convective state from a 1D model in a self-consistent fashion. All of these developments are done in the publicly available Castro simulation code and the entire simulation methodology is fully GPU-accelerated.

Explosive nucleosynthesis↗

Dual-band Ion-scale Waves in the Solar Wind: Statistical Properties and Comparison with Single-band Ion-scale Waves

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of ion-scale waves including dual-band ion-scale waves (DBIWs) observed by the Parker Solar Probe in the solar wind. DBIWs are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of distinct left- and right-handed polarized wave packets at higher and lower frequencies, respectively, in the spacecraft frame, implying the presence of bidirectionally propagating L-mode waves. We identify and compare DBIWs to single-band ion-scale waves (SBIWs) and investigate their spatial distributions, background magnetic field conditions, and associated inertial range turbulence characteristics. We find that DBIWs exhibit a strong preferential occurrence at heliocentric distances between 0.2 and 0.25 au (equivalently 43 and 54 R S ) in contrast to SBIWs, the occurrence rate of which peaks closer to the Sun and decreases with the heliocentric distance. DBIWs are also preferentially observed under conditions of strong Alfvénic turbulence, characterized by low magnetic compressibility and perpendicular-dominant fluctuations. These findings support a scenario in which stochastic ion heating via sufficiently large perpendicular Alfvénic fluctuation generates the ion temperature anisotropies required to excite bidirectional ion cyclotron waves. This work advances our understanding of kinetic wave generation in the solar wind and its connection to large-scale turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical and temporal characteristics of sawtooth events

Magnetospheric sawtooth events are characterized by periodic particle injections and magnetic dipolarizations spread quasi-simultaneously across a wide range of magnetic local times. We present a comprehensive statistical study of magnetospheric sawtooth events (STEs) during solar cycle 24 (2008–2016), extending previous catalogs and enabling solar cycle comparisons. Our results confirm that STEs predominantly occur during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle, and are strongly associated with geomagnetic storms. Superposed epoch analysis reveals near-simultaneous particle injections across all magnetic local time sectors, but magnetic field dipolarization confined to the midnight region. These results support a scenario in which nightside tail reconnection and enhanced convection are the primary drivers of sawtooth oscillations. The localization of magnetic dipolarizations during STEs challenges global instability interpretations and suggests that STEs represent a stormtime substorm mode triggered under specific solar wind and magnetotail conditions. Superposed epoch analyses also show enhanced oxygen content in the magnetosphere during sawtooth events, but do not show a significant difference from geomagnetic storms that do not exhibit periodic behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Maximal Entanglement Limit in Statistical and High-energy Physics

These lectures advocate the idea that quantum entanglement provides a unifying foundation for both statistical physics and high-energy interactions. I argue that, at sufficiently long times or high energies, most quantum systems approach a Maximal Entanglement Limit (MEL) in which phases of quantum states become unobservable, reduced density matrices acquire a thermal form, and probabilistic descriptions emerge without invoking ergodicity or classical randomness. Within this framework, the emergence of probabilistic parton model, thermalization in the break-up of confining strings and in high-energy collisions, and the universal small-x behavior of structure functions arise as direct consequences of entanglement and geometry of high-dimensional Hilbert space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design and Construction of a High-Resolution Hodoscope for the GlueX Experiment with High-Statistics Analysis of the p0, ¿, and ¿1 Photoproduction Cross Sections from the RadPhi Experiment

Differential cross sections for forward-angle photoproduction of p0, ¿, and ¿ 1 pseudoscalar mesons were measured using data from the RadPhi experiment conducted in Hall B at Jef ferson Lab. RadPhi utilized a tagged bremsstrahlung photon beam incident on a stationary 9Be target, with a detector system configured to trigger on a recoil proton in coincidence with multiple neutral showers in the calorimeter. Events were reconstructed and subjected to kinematic constraints, with background suppressed via sideband subtraction guided by Monte Carlo modeling of background contributions. Cross sections were extracted over the photon energy range 4.4– 5.4 GeV and binned in invariant momentum transfer t, providing measurements from one of the first high-statistics experiments of forward ¿ and ¿1 pro duction from a nuclear target at these energies. Acceptance corrections were applied using a detailed GEANT-based simulation of the detector geometry and response. The resulting cross sections are consistent with 2020 CLAS results, when scaled by the number of protons in beryllium, and show broad agreement with other data and theoretical models. In parallel, a high-resolution photon tagger detector, the Tagger Microscope (TAGM), was designed, constructed, and commissioned for the GlueX experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. The TAGM was developed to provide high-rate tagging capability in the coherent bremsstrahlung peak by detecting post-bremsstrahlung electrons across a one GeV range along the focal plane of the tagging spectrometer. The detector consists of a 5ˆ102 array of 2ˆ2 mm2 square BCF-20 plastic scintillating fibers thermally fused to BCF-98 light guide fibers optically coupled to silicon photomultipliers. These fibers are mounted in a precision machined framework enabling fine positional adjustments to maintain precise alignment with post-bremsstrahlung electron trajectories, while ensuring mechanical rigidity, thermal stability, optical isolation, minimal inactive area, and radiation shielding for electronics. The construction effort involved extensive testing of fiber quality, light transmission, thermal fusing, radiation hardness, and defect analysis using SEM and EDX techniques. Following its installation and commissioning, the TAGM became a critical component of the GlueX beamline, enabling high-rate tagging essential for studies of hybrid mesons and gluonic ex citations.

McIntyre, James [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗

Statistical inference of collision frequencies from x-ray Thomson scattering spectra

Thomson scattering spectra measure the response of plasma particles to incident radiation. In warm dense matter, which is opaque to visible light, x-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) enables a detailed probe of the electron distribution and has been used as a diagnostic for electron temperature, density, and plasma ionization. In this work, we examine the sensitivities of inelastic XRTS signatures to modeling details, including the dynamic collision frequency and the electronic density of states. Applying verified Monte Carlo inversion methods to dynamic structure factors obtained from time-dependent density functional theory, we assess the utility of XRTS signals as a way to inform the dynamic collision frequency, especially its direct-current limit, which is directly related to the electrical conductivity.

Collision frequency↗

Rapid Characterization and Statistical Analysis of High-Volume Field-Harvested Photovoltaic Connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) installations heavily depend on connectors for efficient module and string interconnections without requiring skilled labor. Yet this seemingly innocuous component of PV systems is a leading cause of module failures, multiple high-profile fires, and lawsuits in the PV industry. This work aims to answer critical questions regarding why connectors fail and the contributing factors to their failure. The study involves collecting and analyzing more than 17,000 field-harvested connectors from various solar installations across the United States. The vast dataset, which includes connector metadata, visual inspections, and resistance measurements, provides unprecedented insight into the state of health of PV connectors across the US, including the geographic locations, connector types, and installation practices most prone to failures. The work presented here describes a novel rapid characterization method for processing large numbers of connectors and is supported by parallel forensic analysis to discern the root causes of failures as well as a levelized cost of lifetime model to determine the economic ramifications of connector failure. Ultimately, the findings may inform PV developers about the best practices to extend connector longevity and lead to more resilient and reliable PV systems.

connectors↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

Line operators, vortex statistics, and Higgs versus confinement dynamics

We study a 2+1D lattice gauge theory with fundamental representation scalar fields which has both Higgs and confining regimes with a spontaneously-broken U(1) 0-form symmetry. We show that the Higgs and confining regimes may be distinguished by a natural gauge invariant observable: the phase Ω of a correlation function of a vortex line operator linking with an electric Wilson line. We employ dualities and strong coupling expansions to analytically explore parameter regimes which were inaccessible in previous continuum calculations, and discuss possible implications for the phase diagram.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantifying Microstructure Variability in Laser Powder Bed Fusion 316 L Stainless Steel Microstructures with Spatial Statistics

Here, we have explored data-driven methods for material microstructure quantification that improve sensitivity to microstructural changes compared to traditional approaches. The methods integrate multiple microstructural properties, including grain morphology, crystallographic orientation, and material phase information. The simpler method employs maps of the Euclidean distance transformation metric to evaluate the morphology of grain boundary networks. The more intensive approach employs generalized spherical harmonic mapping for crystallographic orientations, per-pixel phase information, and a variational auto-encoder for dimensionality reduction and results in a multidimensional clustering of by microstructure similarity. Applied to an experimental dataset of additively manufactured steel, both methods detected slight variations in samples produced under nominally identical processing conditions. Both methods were able to distinguish between samples from multiple (nominally identical) builds, while the generalized spherical harmonics-based method could additionally cluster data samples rotated at two orientations on the build plate. The improved sensitivity of the methods, demonstrated through comparison with traditional microstructure characterization techniques, offers advantages for microstructure quantification and comparisons in advanced manufacturing applications.

SS316L↗