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Results for “Statistical calibration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Impure Plutonium Oxide Neutron Calibration Standards through Evaluation by Neutron Multiplicity Equations

Plutonium oxide calibration standards STD4C, STD6C and STD8C have been historically used, and are currently the only MT52 standards in use, for calibration and measurement control program of Passive/Active Neutron Coincidence Counter known as PAN1 at PF-4. In this paper, previously measured high-statistics data are used in conjunction with neutron multiplicity equations to determine multiplication M and α parameter of these standards as the explicit knowledge of these parameters may allow quantification of precision and bias of accountability measurements of different material types and matrices of items.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme ultraviolet microscope characterization using photomask surface roughness

We demonstrate a method for characterizing the field-dependent aberrations of a full-field synchrotron-based extreme ultraviolet microscope. The statistical uniformity of the inherent, atomic-scale roughness of readily-available photomask blanks enables a self-calibrating computational procedure using images acquired under standard operation. We characterize the aberrations across a 30-um field-of-view, demonstrating a minimum aberration magnitude of smaller than λ/21 rms averaged over the center 5-um area, with a measurement accuracy better than λ/180 rms. The measured field variation of aberrations is consistent with system geometry and agrees with prior characterizations of the same system. In certain cases, it may be possible to additionally recover the illumination wavefront from the same images. Our method is general and is easily applied to coherent imaging systems with steerable illumination without requiring invasive hardware or custom test objects; hence, it provides substantial benefits when characterizing microscopes and high-resolution imaging systems in situ.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

QUIJOTE scientific results – IV. A northern sky survey in intensity and polarization at 10–20 GHz with the multifrequency instrument

ABSTRACT We present QUIJOTE intensity and polarization maps in four frequency bands centred around 11, 13, 17, and 19 GHz, and covering approximately 29 000 deg2, including most of the northern sky region. These maps result from 9000 h of observations taken between May 2013 and June 2018 with the first QUIJOTE multifrequency instrument (MFI), and have angular resolutions of around 1°, and sensitivities in polarization within the range 35–40 µK per 1° beam, being a factor ∼2–4 worse in intensity. We discuss the data processing pipeline employed, and the basic characteristics of the maps in terms of real space statistics and angular power spectra. A number of validation tests have been applied to characterize the accuracy of the calibration and the residual level of systematic effects, finding a conservative overall calibration uncertainty of 5 per cent. We also discuss flux densities for four bright celestial sources (Tau A, Cas A, Cyg A, and 3C274), which are often used as calibrators at microwave frequencies. The polarization signal in our maps is dominated by synchrotron emission. The distribution of spectral index values between the 11 GHz and WMAP 23 GHz map peaks at β = −3.09 with a standard deviation of 0.14. The measured BB/EE ratio at scales of ℓ = 80 is 0.26 ± 0.07 for a Galactic cut |b| > 10°. We find a positive TE correlation for 11 GHz at large angular scales (ℓ ≲ 50), while the EB and TB signals are consistent with zero in the multipole range 30 ≲ ℓ ≲ 150. The maps discussed in this paper are publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Signal Processing in SBND with Calibrated and Validated Electronics and Field Responses

SBND is a liquid argon time projection chamber in Fermilab’s Short-Baseline Neutrino Program, located 110 m from the neutrino source and operating in a high-rate environment with unprecedented statistics. Charged particles from neutrino interactions ionize the argon, and the resulting electrons drift to the anode wires, inducing current signals recorded as raw waveforms. These waveforms are a convolution of deposited charge with the electronics and TPC field responses, making accurate signal processing essential for recovering the true charge distribution. Signal processing forms the starting point for SBND reconstruction, directly impacting hit finding, charge calibration, clustering, and the reconstruction of tracks and showers, and therefore playing a key role in energy reconstruction and particle identification. In this poster, we present an overview of the SBND signal processing chain, including noise removal, channel-by-channel electronics correction, signal identification, and deconvolution using measured electronics and TPC field responses. We demonstrate that the two kernel functions—electronics and field responses—achieve high precision when compared to data, ensuring that the SBND signal processing chain provides a robust and accurate foundation for event reconstruction and precision physics measurements.

Singh, Prabhjot [Louisiana State U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

analog ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2022

CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydroclimate Projection over the Conterminous US

We present a suite of high-resolution downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on a six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using two different downscaling approaches (statistical-based DBCCA & dynamical-based RegCM) based on two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh), and then fed to two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. Each ensemble member covers 1980–2019 in the historic period and 2020–2059 in the near-term future period under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Major variables such as daily maximum temperature (tmax), daily minimum temperature (tmin), daily total precipitation (prcp), daily average wind speed (wind), and daily total runoff (runoff) at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS are provided through this data portal. This dataset is derived to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Further details of this dataset can be referred to Kao et al. (2022) and Rastogi et al. (2022).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydropower Projection over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1

This dataset presents a suite of hydropower projections for the conterminous United States (CONUS), derived from multiple downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) approaches, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). The resulting downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data are then used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), enabling simulations of projected future hydrologic responses across the CONUS. Simulated total runoff is subsequently employed to drive two hydropower models (WMP, now implemented as mosartwmpy-power, and WRES) to evaluate how climate change may affect future hydropower production for both federal and non-federal hydropower fleets. This dataset was developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, see Broman et al. (2024), Thurber et al. (2024), Kao et al. (2022), and Zhou et al. (2023).

Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the tilt of the Raman laser beam using an optical method for atom gravimeters

The tilt of a Raman laser beam is a major systematic error in precision gravity measurement using atom interferometry. The conventional approach to evaluating this tilt error involves modulating the direction of the Raman laser beam and conducting time-consuming gravity measurements to identify the error minimum. In this work, we demonstrate a method to expediently determine the tilt of the Raman laser beam by transforming the tilt angle measurement into characterization of parallelism, which integrates the optical method of aligning the laser direction, commonly used in freely falling corner-cube gravimeters, into an atom gravimeter. A position-sensing detector (PSD) is utilized to quantitatively characterize the parallelism between the test beam and the reference beam, thus measuring the tilt precisely and rapidly. After carefully positioning the PSD and calibrating the relationship between the distance measured by the PSD and the tilt angle measured by the tiltmeter, we achieved a statistical uncertainty of less than 30 µrad in the tilt measurement. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained through this optical method with those from the conventional tilt modulation method for gravity measurement. The comparison validates that our optical method can achieve tilt determination with an accuracy level of better than 200 µrad, corresponding to a systematic error of 20 µGal in g measurement. This work has practical implications for real-world applications of atom gravimeters.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

PROTOCALC, a W -band Polarized Calibrator for Cosmic Microwave Background Telescopes: Application to Simons Observatory and CLASS

Current- and next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments will measure polarization anisotropies with unprecedented sensitivities. The need for high precision in these measurements underscores the importance of gaining a comprehensive understanding of instrument properties, with a particular emphasis on the study of the beam properties, and especially their polarization characteristics and the measurement of the polarization angle. In this context, a major challenge lies in the scarcity of millimeter polarized astrophysical sources with sufficient brightness and calibration knowledge to meet the stringent accuracy requirements of future CMB missions. This led to the development of a drone-borne calibration source designed for the frequency band centered on approximately 90 GHz, matching a commonly used channel in ground-based CMB measurements. The Prototype Calibrator for Cosmology, PROTOCALC, has undergone thorough in-lab testing, and its properties have been subsequently modeled through simulation software integrated into the standard Simons Observatory analysis pipeline. Moreover, the PROTOCALC system has been tested in the field, having been deployed twice on calibration campaigns with CMB telescopes in the Atacama Desert. The data collected constrain the roll angle of the source with a statistical accuracy of 0$^°_•$045.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗