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At least 163 records · Page 9

Examining the Relationships Between Education, Social Networks and Democratic Support With ABM

This paper introduces an agent-based model that explores the relationships between education, social networks, and support for democratic ideals. This study examines two factors thai affect democratic support, education, and social networks. Current theory concerning these two variables suggests that positive relationships exist between education and democratic support and between social networks and the spread of ideas. The model contains multiple variables of democratic support, two of which are evaluated through experimentation. The model allows individual entities within the system to make "decisions" about their democratic support independent of one another. The agent based approach also allows entities to utilize their social networks to spread ideas. Current theory supports experimentation results. In add~ion , these results show the model is capable of reproducing real world outcomes. This paper addresses the model creation process and the experimentation procedure, as well as future research avenues and potential shortcomings of the model

Drucker, Nick↗

Analysis of turbulent underexpanded jets. II - Shock noise features using SCIPVIS

SCIPVIS, the computational model discussed by Dash et al. (1985), is assessed in predicting the complicated flow structure associated with shock-containing plumes. In addition, the analysis in this study examines this code's applicability as a basic part of a program for estimating broadband shock noise radiation. The results of this study show that excellent agreement exists between predicted and measured static pressure distributions for both underexpanded and overexpanded flow cases considered. Of the three turbulence closure models incorporated in the SCIPVIS code, the kW model of Spalding produces the most uniform agreement with measurement. The k-epsilon-2 model of Launder consistently overestimates plume spreading for supersonic jets with exit Mach numbers in the 1-2 range. Dash's (1983) k-epsilon-2-cc, compressibility-corrected version of Launder's model underestimates plume spreading. Good qualitative agreement was also obtained between the measured longitudinal turbulence intensity and that predicted by the code for the same trial case. Comparison of measured and predicted broadband shock noise spectrum peak values were found to be in excellent agreement. This utilized a variant of the Harper-Bourne and Fisher (1973) phase-array model: the effective shock spacing was reinterpreted as the value of the end of the plume potential core, determined herein by the SCIPVIS code.

Seiner, J. M.↗

On the prediction of free turbulent jets with swirl using a quadratic pressure-strain model

Data from free turbulent jets both with and without swirl are used to assess the performance of the pressure-strain model of Speziale, Sarkar and Gatski which is quadratic in the Reynolds stresses. Comparative predictions are also obtained with the two versions of the Launder, Reece and Rodi model which are linear in the same terms. All models are used as part of a complete second-order closure based on the solution of differential transport equations for each non-zero component of the Reynolds stress tensor together with an equation for the scalar energy dissipation rate. For non-swirling jets, the quadratic model underestimates the measured spreading rate of the plane jet but yields a better prediction for the axisymmetric case without resolving the plane jet/round jet anomaly. For the swirling axisymmetric jet, the same model accurately reproduces the effects of swirl on both the mean flow and the turbulence structure in sharp contrast with the linear models which yield results that are in serious error. The reasons for these differences are discussed.

Younis, Bassam A.↗

The Rapidly Fading Afterglow of GRB 980519

GRB 980519 had the most rapidly fading of the well-documented GRB afterglows, consistent with t(sup -2.05 +/- 0.04) in BVRI as well as in X-rays during the two days in which observations were made. We report VRI observations from the MDM 1.3m and WIYN 3.5m telescopes, and we synthesize an optical spectrum from all of the available photometry. The optical spectrum alone is well fitted by a power law of the form nu(sup - 1.20 +/- 0.25), with some of the uncertainty due to the significant Galactic reddening in this direction. The optical and X-ray spectra together are adequately fitted by a single power law nu(sup 1.05 +/- 0.10). This combination of steep temporal decay and flat broad-band spectrum places a severe strain on the simplest afterglow models involving spherical blast waves in a homogeneous medium. Instead, the rapid observed temporal decay is more consistent with 2 models of expansion into a medium of density n(r) proportional to r(sup -2), or with predictions of the evolution of a jet after it slows down and spreads laterally. The jet model would relax the energy requirements on some of the more extreme GRBs, of which GRB 980519 is likely to be an example because of its large gamma-ray fluence and faint host galaxy.

Halpern, Jules P.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-13204-DND

Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) has spread rapidly throughout the western United States in the past fifteen years. Pepperweed outcompetes many native species for water and nutrients, disturbing sensitive ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to map the contemporary distribution of pepperweed throughout the wetland ecosystem of the restored South San Francisco Bay Salt Ponds and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with the GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with presence and absence pepperweed GPS data points. A Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classification algorithm (Method A) was used to distinguish pepperweed spectra and map its distribution on an EO-1 Hyperion image of the study area. Similarly, a supervised classification was run on an ASTER image of the study area. A GIS multivariate habitat suitability model was created to predict areas most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables incorporated into the model were tidal extent, propensity for disturbance, pond salinity, proximity to levees and channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a suitability map (Method B) and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to disturbance factors, extreme pond salinity and curvature as statistically significant in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats

Andrew Nguyen↗

3D Material Response of the MSL Heatshield Using NuSil-Coated PICA

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) collected in-flight data largely used by the ablation community to verify and validate physics-based models for the response of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1-4]. MEDLI data were recently used to guide the development of NASA’s high-fidelity material response models for PICA implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software [5-6]. A follow-up instrumentation suite, MEDLI2, was used for the Mars 2020 mission [7] after the large scientific impact of MEDLI. Recent analyses performed as part of MEDLI2 development drew the attention to significant effects of a protective coating to the aerothermal response of PICA. NuSil, a silicone-based overcoat sprayed onto the MSL heatshield, including the MEDLI plugs, as contamination control, is currently neglected in PICA ablation models. To mitigate the spread of phenolic dust from PICA, NuSil was applied to the entire MSL and Mars 2020 heatshields, including the MEDLI and MEDLI2 plugs. Ground testing of PICA-NuSil (PICA-N) models exhibited surface temperature jumps due to oxide scale formation and subsequent NuSil burn- off. It is therefore critical to include a model for the aerothermal response of the coating in ongoing code development and validation efforts. Figure 1 illustrates the PICA-N model implemented in PATO with a test case that shows a temperature jump and a change of recession rate at the wall after 20 seconds of simulation when the NuSil coating was fully removed.

Aerospace↗

Spatial and Spatial Frequency Spreads Of Masking: Measurements and a Contrast-Gain-Control Model

Masked pattern detection is affected by the mask's proximity to the target in both the spatial and the spatial frequency domains. We measured contrast thresholds for detection of a Gabor patch centered in a sample of static band-pass noise with a central noise-free aperture. To examine spatial spread, target and mask frequency were identical, at either 2, 4, or 8 cycles/degree (cpd), and the radius of the aperture was 0, 1/2 or 1 cycle of the noise band's center frequency. The results suggest that the spatial spread of masking is scale invariant, with the largest radius producing little masking. To examine spatial frequency spread, a radius of 0 (no aperture) was used with all pairings of 2,4, and 8 cpd for target and mask. The results suggest that masking is asymmetrical over log frequency: 8 cpd noise masks a 2 cpd target, but 2 cpd noise does not mask an 8 cpd target. We have used these results to calibrate a model of contrast-gain-control.

Solomon, J. A.↗

Spatial and Spatial Frequency Spreads of Masking: Measurements and A Contrast-Gain-Control Model

Masked pattern detection is affected by the mask's proximity to the target in both the spatial and the spatial frequency domains. We measured contrast thresholds for detection of a Gabor patch centered in a sample of static band-pass noise with a central noise-free aperture. To examine spatial spread, target and mask frequency were identical, at either 2, 4, or 8 cycles/degree (cpd), and the radius of the aperture was 0, 1/2 or 1 cycle of the noise band's center frequency. The results suggest that the spatial spread of masking is scale invariant, with the largest radius producing little masking. To examine spatial frequency spread, a radius of 0 (no aperture) was used with all pairings of 2, 4, and 8 cpd for target and mask. The results suggest that masking is asymmetrical over log frequency: 8 z 0 cpd noise masks a 2 cpd target, but 2 cpd noise does not mask an 8 cpd target. We have used these results to calibrate a model of contrast-gain-control.

Solomon, Joshua A.↗

Aerosol Absorption in Global Models From AeroCom Phase III

Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.

Aerosol absorption↗

The Influence of Tropospheric Processes in Modeling the Middle Atmosphere with Gravity Waves

Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and has a vertical grid point resolution of about 0.5 km to resolve the interactions of gravity waves (GWs) described with Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). This model produces in the stratosphere and mesosphere the major features of QBO, SAO, tides, and planetary waves. The purpose of this paper is to discuss results from an initial study with our 3D model that shows how certain tropospheric processes can affect the dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Under the influence of tropospheric heating, and augmented by GW interactions, two distinct but related processes can be identified. (1) A meridional circulation develops in the stratosphere, with rising motions at low latitudes that are in magnitude comparable to the downward propagation of the QBO. As Dunkerton pointed out, a larger GW source is then required to reproduce the observed QBO, which tends to move us closer to the values recommended for the DSP. This has significant consequences for our model results that describe the upper mesosphere, considering the general importance of GWs for this region and in influencing planetary waves (e.g., 2-day wave) and tides in particular. (2) Tropospheric heating produces zonal jets near the tropopause that are related to latitudinal variations in pressure and reversing temperature variations (resembling the dynamical conditions near the mesopause), which in turn is conducive to generate baroclinic instability. Modeling results show that our ability to generate the QBO critically depends on the magnitude of the temperature reversal that is a measure of this instability. Planetary waves are generated in this process, which can apparently interfere with or augment the GW interactions. As originally demonstrated by Lindzen and Holton, the eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves (generated by tropospheric convection) can in principle provide the acceleration to influence the QBO, and we were able to confirm this with our 3D model.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Streamer Brightness Boundary

Flow tubes adjacent to closed magnetic field lines on the boundaries of streamers can have spreading factors which change rapidly with height. Numerical models in this thin layer are subject to uncertainties. Here we use an analytic model of magnetically closed and adjacent open regions to analyze the spreading factor close to the closed field lines. The model is based on the one-temperature, isothermal flow model of Pneuman (1968), extended to calculate spreading factors and plasma beta, and to better explain streamer evolution with increasing temperature.

Suess, S. T.↗

Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95% confidence interval 13.1-15.7 days). The equivalent modelled e lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.42.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer (Xe-133) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol (Cs-137) tracer. This indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.

Radioactive isotopes↗

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

Teixeira, J.↗

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

Turbulence in sound excited jets - Measurements and theory

The mechanisms by which the turbulent structure of an axisymmetric jet is modified by the presence of an acoustic excitation are examined. A model is described in which the excitation triggers instability waves at the jet exit. As these waves propagate downstream they extract energy from the mean flow and transfer it to the random turbulence. This results in an increase of the random turbulence levels and a more rapid mixing and spreading for the jet. Models are introduced for the Reynolds stress and the 'wave-induced stress'. It is shown that at high frequencies the presence of the instability wave may reduce the random turbulence levels. Numerical calculations are presented for both the radial and axial variation in the time-averaged properties of the flow as a function of excitation conditions. The calculations are compared with measurements of fluctuating velocity and pressure in a round jet with a Reynolds number of 375,000, based on jet diameter and exit velocity.

Morris, P. J.↗

Progress Towards Modeling the Ablation Response of NuSil-Coated PICA

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) collected in-flight data largely used by the ablation community to verify and validate physics-based models for the response of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1-4]. MEDLI data were recently used to guide the development of NASA’s high-fidelity material response models for PICA, implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software [5-6]. A follow-up instrumentation suite, MEDLI2, is planned for the upcoming Mars 2020 mission [7] after the large scientific impact of MEDLI. Recent analyses performed as part of MEDLI2 development draw the attention to significant effects of a protective coating to the aerothermal response of PICA. NuSil, a silicone-based overcoat sprayed onto the MSL heatshield as contamination control, is currently neglected in PICA ablation models. To mitigate the spread of phenolic dust from PICA, NuSil was applied to the entire MSL heatshield, including the MEDLI plugs. NuSil is a space grade designation of the siloxane copolymer, primarily used to protect against atomic oxygen erosion in the Low Earth Orbit environment. Ground testing of PICA-NuSil (PICA-N) models all exhibited surface temperature jumps of the order of 200 K due to oxide scale formation and subsequent NuSil burn-off. It is therefore critical to include a model for the aerothermal response of the coating in ongoing code development and validation efforts.

Meurisse, Jeremie B.↗