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At least 163 records · Page 9

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A closer look at turbulence spreading: How bistability admits intermittent, propagating turbulence fronts

In magnetic fusion plasmas, mounting evidence indicates the possibility of sustained turbulence below the linear stability threshold or more generally global turbulence bistability. The usual reduced models for turbulence spreading are unistable/supercritical and incompatible with this result. The older models further cannot realistically support fronts connecting laminar and turbulent domains. In this work, a minimal model for “subcritical” turbulence spreading is introduced and analyzed. The model may be viewed as phenomenological or derived directly by considering the effect of profile corrugations in an E×B staircase. The model, which is related to the FitzHugh–Nagumo system, supports the robust coexistence of multiple turbulence levels via bistability. We show that this model predicts stronger penetration of turbulence into a linearly stable region as well as the formation of intermittent turbulence fronts that resemble avalanches. We derive the critical size that a localized slug of turbulence must exceed in order to spread. Lastly, we make a prediction of global hysteretic behavior associated with the bistability, which should be testable via experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mechanisms behind impurity spreading in a channeled, long-leg divertor configuration

One suggested benefit of long-leg, tightly baffled divertor configurations, a common feature included in the designs of many next-generation fusion devices, is access to a delocalized “spread” of impurity radiation along the leg, allowing for a substantial radiation region while maintaining both sufficient distance from the core to prevent pollution of the plasma fuel and avoiding local overheating of the plasma-facing materials. However, it is unclear whether this increased connection length and divertor volume afforded by the long-leg configuration is compatible with impurity transport, and whether it will enable this desired impurity radiation spread at all. Here, the SOLPS 4.3 code is used to assess the distribution of nitrogen and neon impurity radiation in a long-leg, tightly baffled divertor geometry. Further, there is a strong correspondence between the distribution of impurity radiation in the long leg and impurity recycling on the divertor side walls with both the nitrogen simulation set and the neon simulation set, suggesting that impurity spreading along these long legs is due to the interplay between the cross-field transport and associated neutralization of the impurity on the material surfaces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics of turbulence spreading and explicit nonlocality

In this paper, we systematically derive a model for turbulence spreading from the basic kinetic equation. The model contains explicit nonlocal nonlinear diffusion and nonlocal growth. When the nonlocality scale parameter δ b (banana width) vanishes, this model reduces to the usual turbulence spreading model. We elucidate the mechanisms of nonlinear saturation and nonlocal growth. Results show that nonlocal effects, especially the nonlocal growth, thicken the turbulence spreading front and increase the speed of front propagation. More turbulence intensity penetrates the stable region when δ b increases. The penetration depth Δ p is proportional to $ \delta_b/L_T $, therefore the fraction of turbulence in the unstable region scales as 1 – δ b* . Lastly, the transport scales the same way.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The spread of technological innovations: effects of psychology, culture and policy interventions

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

How the Universe postpones the evaporation and curtails the quantum spreading of black holes

Black holes are expected to evaporate through the process of Hawking radiation. This process is expected to cause the uncertainty in a black hole’s position to grow to ~ $M^4/M^3_{pl}$ over the course of it’s lifetime, even as its momentum spreads only by ~ $M_{Pl}$ For the black holes that have been observed, which have M ≥ M ⊙ this greatly exceeds the Hubble volume. However, the decay of black holes and their quantum spreading, are delayed in the Universe while the influx of energy into the black holes exceeds their Hawking luminosity. We show that for these M ≥ M ⊙ black holes, their decay outside galaxies and clusters is prevented far longer than it takes the black holes to be dragged well beyond the Hubble horizon, where their eventual decay occurs away from the prying eyes of any observer who has not hitched a ride with them. Meanwhile, black holes in an observer’s galaxy or cluster are themselves prevented from decaying long past the extinction of the last stars, and at least until their galaxy/cluster is swept clean of dark matter, in $\gg$ 10 25 y. Even then, if the black holes become unbound, then they are dragged beyond the Hubble radius before undergoing significant decay; if not, they remain in bound orbits, spreading at most over a subvolume of the galaxy/cluster, and long localized by scatterings to much smaller volumes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Universal Spreading of Conditional Mutual Information in Noisy Random Circuits

For this work, we study the evolution of conditional mutual information (CMI) in generic open quantum systems, focusing on one-dimensional random circuits with interspersed local noise. Unlike in noiseless circuits, where CMI spreads linearly while being bounded by the light cone, we find that noisy random circuits with an error rate 𝑝 exhibit superlinear propagation of CMI, which diverges far beyond the light cone at a critical circuit depth 𝑡 𝑐 ∝ 𝑝 −1 . We demonstrate that the underlying mechanism for such rapid spreading is the combined effect of local noise and a scrambling unitary, which selectively removes short-range correlations while preserving long-range correlations. To analytically capture the dynamics of CMI in noisy random circuits, we introduce a coarse-graining method, and we validate our theoretical results through numerical simulations. Furthermore, we identify a universal scaling law governing the spreading of CMI.

decoherence↗

Chaos, percolation and the coronavirus spread: a two-step model

We discuss a two-step model for the rise and decay of a new coronavirus (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoV-2) first reported in December 2019, COVID-19. The first stage is well described by the same equation for turbulent flows, population growth and chaotic maps: a small number of infected, d 0 , grows exponentially to a saturation value, d ∞ . The typical growth time (aggressive spreading of the virus) is given by τ = 1/λ where λ is the Lyapunov exponent. After a time t crit determined by social distancing and/or other measures, the spread decreases exponentially analogous to nuclear decays and non-chaotic maps. Some countries, like China, S. Korea and Italy, are in this second stage while others including the USA are near the end of the growth stage. The model predicted 15,000 (±2250) casualties for the Lombardy region (Italy) at the end of the spreading around May 10, 2020. Without the quarantine, the casualties would have been more than 50,000, one hundred days after the start of the pandemic. Here, the data from the 50 US states are of very poor quality because of an extremely late and confused response to the pandemic, resulting unfortunately in a large number of casualties, more than 70,000 on May 6, 2020, and more than 170,000 on August 21, 2020. S. Korea, notwithstanding the high population density (511/km 2 ) and the closeness to China, responded best to the pandemic with 255 deceased as of May 6, 2020, and 301 on August 21, 2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study in WRF on Wind over Broadband Waves of Different Directions and Spreading Widths

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with moving waves to conduct large-eddy simulations (LESs) of wind over broadband waves with different propagating directions and spreading widths. Our results show that wind-opposing waves can double the form drag, and the wave propagating direction affects the mean wind velocity, velocity variances, and pressure stress. On the other hand, waves with wider spread tend to reduce the form drag in the streamwise direction. Results further indicate that the wave direction can impact the bulk drag coefficient by as much as 25%, while the wave directional spreading width can change it by 5%. Based on our wave-phase-resolved simulations, we demonstrate that the parameterization of sea surface roughness is significantly influenced by the direction of wave propagation relative to the wind, a factor that the commonly used Charnock relation does not account for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Space Charge Dominated Momentum Spread and Compensation Strategies in the Post-Linac Section of Proton Improvement Plan-II at Fermilab

The upcoming Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II), designated for enhancements to the Fermilab accelerator complex, features a Beam Transfer Line (BTL) that channels the beam from the linac exit to the booster. In the absence of longitudinal focusing beyond the superconducting linac, the beam experiences an elevated momentum spread, primarily due to nonlinear space-charge forces, surpassing the allowable limit of 2.1e-4. This study presents a detailed examination of the space-charge-induced momentum spread and outlines mitigative strategies. The investigation includes the fine-tuning of a de-buncher cavity, analyzed in terms of operating frequency, longitudinal location, and gap voltage, under both standard and perturbed beam conditions—specifically accounting for momentum jitter and energy variation. The impact of buncher cavity misalignments on the beam's longitudinal phase space is also assessed. The paper concludes by recommending an optimized cavity configuration to effectively mitigate the observed increase in momentum spread along the BTL.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluation of Clamshell Current Coupler for Online Frequency Domain and Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry to Detect Anomalies in Energized Cables

This document describes adaptation and evaluation of a clamshell inductive current coupler for online reflectometry testing (both frequency domain reflectometry and spread spectrum time domain reflectometry) to evaluate cable insulation degradation and anomalies. Safety-critical nuclear power plant cables were initially qualified for 40 years. However, as plants extend their operating licenses to 60 and 80 years, justification for continued safe operation includes test and monitoring programs. These will become more important as the industry moves to condition based qualification programs. Cable test programs traditionally involve manual interventions to disconnect cables, perform one or several tests, then reconnect the systems, usually during refueling outages occurring only every 18 to 24 months. This poses an operational burden that can be minimized by online testing or periodic connection to a coupler that may remain on the cable of interest or be clamped onto the cable without de-termination. This work investigates the adaptation of a clamshell inductive current coupler for either frequency domain reflectometry or spread-spectrum time domain reflectometry. The reflectometry test instrument injects a broad-band chirp or pseudo-noise signal onto a cable conductor and monitors for a reflected signal indicative of an impedance change caused by a damage condition. The instrument maximum input signal levels are typically 10 to 30 volts or less and the instruments will be damaged if subjected to 60 Hz power line voltages of 110, 220, or 480 VAC. One commercial spread-spectrum time domain reflectometry system has circuitry suitable for voltages up to 1 kV, but typical reflectometry tests are performed on de-energized cables. The clamshell inductive coupler provides >60 dB of 60 Hz attenuation with less than 10 dB loss in the 1-500 MHz test bandwidth of interest. An energized cable was successfully tested up to 6.7 kVp-p and frequency response plots imply that the tests could be extended to 10 kV or higher energized levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Laser Frequency Transverse Modulation Might Compensate for the Spectral Broadening Due to Large Electron Energy Spread in Thomson Sources

Compact laser plasma accelerators generate high-energy electron beams with increasing quality. When used in inverse Compton backscattering, however, the relatively large electron energy spread jeopardizes potential applications requiring small bandwidths. We present here a novel interaction scheme that allows us to compensate for the negative effects of the electron energy spread on the spectrum, by introducing a transverse spatial frequency modulation in the laser pulse. Such a laser chirp, together with a properly dispersed electron beam, can substantially reduce the broadening of the Compton bandwidth due to the electron energy spread. We show theoretical analysis and numerical simulations for hard X-ray Thomson sources based on laser plasma accelerators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Scalable, High-Efficiency, Low-Energy-Spread Laser Wakefield Accelerator Using a Tri-Plateau Plasma Channel

The emergence of multi-petawatt laser facilities is expected to push forward the maximum energy gain that can be achieved in a single stage of a laser wakefield acceleration (LWFA) to tens of giga-electron volts, which begs the question—is it likely to impact particle physics by providing a truly compact particle collider? Colliders have very stringent requirements on beam energy, acceleration efficiency, and beam quality. In this article, we propose an LWFA scheme that can for the first time simultaneously achieve hitherto unrealized acceleration efficiency from the laser to the electron beam of >20% and a sub-1% energy spread using a stepwise plasma structure and a nonlinearly chirped laser pulse. Three-dimensional high-fidelity simulations show that the nonlinear chirp can effectively mitigate the laser waveform distortion and lengthen the acceleration distance. This, combined with an interstage rephasing process in the stepwise plasma, can triple the beam energy gain compared to that in a uniform plasma for a fixed laser energy, thereby dramatically increasing the efficiency. A dynamic beam loading effect can almost perfectly cancel the energy chirp that arises during the acceleration, leading to the sub-percent energy spread. This scheme is highly scalable and can be applied to petawatt LWFA scenarios. Scaling laws are obtained, which suggest that electron beams with parameters relevant for a Higgs factory could be reached with the proposed high-efficiency, low-energy-spread scheme.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Pulsations, interpulsations, and sea-floor spreading.

It is postulated that worldwide transgressions (pulsations) and regressions (interpulsations) through the course of geologic time are related to the elevation and subsidence of oceanic ridge systems and to sea-floor spreading. Two multiple working hypotheses are advanced to explain major transgressions and regressions and the elevation and subsidence of oceanic ridge systems. One hypothesis interrelates the sea-floor spreading hypothesis to the hypothesis of sub-Mohorovicic serpentinization. The second hypothesis relates the sea-floor spreading hypothesis to a hypothesis involving thermal expansion and contraction.

Pessagno, E. A., Jr.↗

Linear theory of equatorial spread F

A fluid dispersion relation for the drift and interchange (Rayleigh-Taylor) modes in a collisional plasma forms the basis for a linear theory of equatorial spread F. The collisional-drift-mode growth rate will exceed the growth rate of the Rayleigh-Taylor mode at short perpendicular wavelengths and density-gradient scale lengths. The drift mode can grow on the top-side as well as the bottom-side density gradients. It is concluded that below the F peak where spread F predominates, both the drift and Rayleigh-Taylor modes contribute to the total spread F spectrum, with the Rayleigh-Taylor mode dominating at long and the drift mode at short perpendicular wavelengths above the ion Larmor radius.

Hudson, M. K.↗

Liquid spreading ASTP Science Demonstration

Wetting and spreading phenomena are significant in a wide variety of processes. This report discusses the results of an ASTP Science Demonstration, 'Liquid Spreading', and compares these results to theoretical predictions. On earth the initial spreading of large liquid drops on solid surfaces is always dominated by gravity; in this demonstration the effect of gravity is greatly reduced so that surface energy forces are the controlling factor.

Bourgeois, S. V.↗

An experimental study of the influence of elevated buoyancy levels on flame spread rate over thermally thin cellulosic materials

The role of buoyancy on the flame spread rate over paper and its effect on extinction was studied by changing the gravity level and pressure. It was found that the flame spread rate decreases as the buoyancy induced flow increases. A method for correlating flame spread data using dimensionless parameters is presented. The Damkohler number is shown to be the dependent variable.

Shang, P. C.↗