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At least 163 records · Page 9

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From multivariate to functional data analysis: Fundamentals, recent developments, and emerging areas

Functional data analysis (FDA), which is a branch of statistics on modeling infinite dimensional random vectors resided in functional spaces, has become a major research area for Journal of Multivariate Analysis. We review some fundamental concepts of FDA, their origins and connections from multivariate analysis, and some of its recent developments, including multi-level functional data analysis, high-dimensional functional regression, and dependent functional data analysis. Here, we also discuss the impact of these new methodology developments on genetics, plant science, wearable device data analysis, image data analysis, and business analytics. Two real data examples are provided to motivate our discussions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially co-registered wide-field nonlinear optical imaging of living and complex biosystems in a total internal reflection geometry

Nonlinear optical microscopy that leverages an objective based total internal reflection (TIR) excitation scheme is an attractive means for rapid, wide-field imaging with enhanced surface sensitivity. Through select combinations of distinct modalities, one can, in principle, access complementary chemical and structural information for various chemical species near interfaces. Here, we report a successful implementation of such a wide-field nonlinear optical microscope system, which combines coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS), two-photon fluorescence (TPF), second harmonic generation (SHG), and sum frequency generation (SFG) modalities on the same platform. The intense optical fields needed to drive these high order nonlinear optical processes are achieved through the use of femtosecond pulsed light in combination with the intrinsic field confinement induced by TIR over a large field of view. The performance of our multimodal microscope was first assessed through the experimental determination of its chemical fidelity, intensity and polarization dependences, and spatial resolution using a set of well-defined model systems. Subsequently, its unique capabilities were validated through imaging complex biological systems, including Hydrangea quercifolia pollen grains and Pantoea sp. YR343 bacterial cells. Specifically, the spatial distribution of different molecular groups in the former was visualized via vibrational contrast mechanisms of CARS, whereas co-registered TPF imaging allowed the identification of spatially localized intrinsic fluorophores. We further demonstrate the feasibility of our microscope for wide-field CARS imaging on live cells through independent characterization of cell viability using spatially co-registered TPF imaging. Overall, this approach to TIR enabled wide-field imaging is expected to provide new insights into bacterial strains and their interactions with other species in the rhizosphere in a time-resolved and chemically selective manner.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Assessment of Local Observation of Atomic Ordering in Alloys via the Radial Distribution Function: A Computational and Experimental Approach

As a powerful analytical technique, atom probe tomography (APT) has the capacity to acquire the spatial distribution of millions of atoms from a complex sample. However, extracting information at the Ångstrom-scale on atomic ordering remains a challenge due to the limits of the APT experiment and data analysis algorithms. The development of new computational tools enable visualization of the data and aid understanding of the physical phenomena such as disorder of complex crystalline structures. Here, we report progress towards this goal using two steps. We describe a computational approach to evaluate atomic ordering in the crystal structure by generating radial distribution functions (RDF). Atomic ordering is rendered as the Fractional Cumulative Radial Distribution Function (FCRDF) which allows for greater visibility of local compositions at short range in the structure. Further, we accommodate in the analysis additional parameters such as uncertainty in the atomic coordinates and the atomic abundance to ascertain short-range ordering in APT data sets. We applied the FCRDF analysis to synthetic and experimental APT data sets for Ni 3 Al. The ability to observe a signal of atomic ordering consistent with the known L1 2 crystal structure is heavily dependent on spatial uncertainty, irrespective of abundance. Detection of atomic ordering is subject to an upper limit of spatial uncertainty of atoms described with Gaussian distributions with a standard deviation of 1.3 Å. The FCRDF analysis was also applied to the APT data set for a six-component alloy, Al 1.3 CoCrCuFeNi. In this case, we are currently able to visualize elemental segregation at the nanoscale, though unambiguous identification of atomic ordering at the Ångstrom (nearest-neighbor) scale remains a goal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska

Arctic tundra has the potential to generate significant climate feedbacks, but spatial complexity makes it difficult to quantify the impacts of climate on ecosystem-atmosphere fluxes, particularly in polygonal tundra comprising wetter and drier polygon types on the scale of tens of meters. We measured CO 2 , CH 4 , and energy fluxes using eddy covariance for 7 yr (April to November, 2013–2019) in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska. This period saw the earliest snowmelt, latest snow accumulation, and hottest summer on record. To estimate fluxes by polygon type, we combined a polygon classification with a flux-footprint model. Methane fluxes were highest in the summer months but were also large during freeze-up and increased with the warming trend in August–November temperatures. While CO 2 respiration had a consistent, exponential relationship with temperature, net ecosystem exchange was more variable among years. CO 2 and CH 4 exchange (June–September) ranged between -0.83 (Standard error [SE] = 0.03) and -1.32 (SE = 0.04) μmol m -2 s-1 and 13.92 (SE = 0.26)—23.42 (SE = 0.45) nmol m -2 s -1 , respectively, and varied interannually (p ≤ 0.05). The maximum-influence method effectively attributed fluxes to polygon types. Areas dominated by low-centered polygons had higher CO 2 fluxes except in 2016–2017. Methane fluxes were highest in low-centered polygons 2013–2015 and in flat-centered polygons in subsequent years, possibly due to increasing temperature and precipitation. Sensible and latent heat fluxes also varied significantly among polygon types. Accurate characterization of Arctic fluxes and their climate dependencies requires spatial disaggregation and long term observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing expert scientific consensus on the environmental and societal effects of marine artificial structures prior to decommissioning

Thousands of artificial (‘human-made’) structures are present in the marine environment, many at or approaching end-of-life and requiring urgent decisions regarding their decommissioning. No consensus has been reached on which decommissioning option(s) result in optimal environmental and societal outcomes, in part, owing to a paucity of evidence from real-world decommissioning case studies. To address this significant challenge, we asked a worldwide panel of scientists to provide their expert opinion. They were asked to identify and characterise the ecosystem effects of artificial structures in the sea, their causes and consequences, and to identify which, if any, should be retained following decommissioning. Experts considered that most of the pressures driving ecological and societal effects from marine artificial structures (MAS) were of medium severity, occur frequently, and are dependent on spatial scale with local-scale effects of greater magnitude than regional effects. The duration of many effects following decommissioning were considered to be relatively short, in the order of days. Overall, environmental effects of structures were considered marginally undesirable, while societal effects marginally desirable. Experts therefore indicated that any decision to leave MAS in place at end-of-life to be more beneficial to society than the natural environment. However, some individual environmental effects were considered desirable and worthy of retention, especially in certain geographic locations, where structures can support improved trophic linkages, increases in tourism, habitat provision, and population size, and provide stability in population dynamics. The expert analysis consensus that the effects of MAS are both negative and positive for the environment and society, gives no strong support for policy change whether removal or retention is favoured until further empirical evidence is available to justify change to the status quo. The combination of desirable and undesirable effects associated with MAS present a significant challenge for policy- and decision-makers in their justification to implement decommissioning options. Decisions may need to be decided on a case-by-case basis accounting for the trade-off in costs and benefits at a local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biome-scale temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration revealed by atmospheric CO2 observations

Abstract The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration regulates how the terrestrial carbon sink responds to a warming climate but has been difficult to constrain observationally beyond the plot scale. Here we use observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from a network of towers together with carbon flux estimates from state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to characterize the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration, as represented by the Arrhenius activation energy, over various North American biomes. We infer activation energies of 0.43 eV for North America and 0.38 eV to 0.53 eV for major biomes therein, which are substantially below those reported for plot-scale studies (approximately 0.65 eV). This discrepancy suggests that sparse plot-scale observations do not capture the spatial-scale dependence and biome specificity of the temperature sensitivity. We further show that adjusting the apparent temperature sensitivity in model estimates markedly improves their ability to represent observed atmospheric CO 2 variability. This study provides observationally constrained estimates of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration directly at the biome scale and reveals that temperature sensitivities at this scale are lower than those based on earlier plot-scale studies. These findings call for additional work to assess the resilience of large-scale carbon sinks to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of hydrodynamic theory to estimate electrical current redistribution in metals

Using the analogy between hydrodynamic and electrical current flow, we study herein how electrical current density j redistributes and amplifies due to two commonly encountered inhomogeneities in metals. First, we consider flow around a spherical resistive inclusion and find significant j amplification, independent of inclusion size. Hence, even μ m-scale inclusions can affect performance in applications by creating localized regions of enhanced Joule heating. Next, we investigate j redistribution due to surface roughness, idealized as a sinusoidal perturbation with amplitude A and wavelength λ . Theory predicts that j amplification is determined by the ratio A / λ , so that even “smooth” surface finishes (i.e., small A ) can generate significant amplification, if λ is correspondingly small. We compare theory with magnetohydrodynamic simulation to illustrate both the utility and limitations of the steady-state theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Charge density wave activated excitons in TiSe 2 –MoSe 2 heterostructures

Layered materials enable the assembly of a new class of heterostructures where lattice-matching is no longer a requirement. Interfaces in these heterostructures therefore become a fertile ground for unexplored physics as dissimilar phenomena can be coupled via proximity effects. In this article, we identify an unexpected photoluminescence (PL) peak when MoSe 2 interacts with TiSe 2 . A series of temperature-dependent and spatially resolved PL measurements reveal that this peak is unique to the TiSe 2 –MoSe 2 interface, is higher in energy compared to the neutral exciton, and exhibits exciton-like characteristics. The feature disappears at the TiSe 2 charge density wave transition, suggesting that the density wave plays an important role in the formation of this new exciton. We present several plausible scenarios regarding the origin of this peak that individually capture some aspects of our observations but cannot fully explain this feature. These results therefore represent a fresh challenge for the theoretical community and provide a fascinating way to engineer excitons through interactions with charge density waves.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On resistive interchange, double tearing, and resonant and non-resonant infernal modes in spherical tokamak negative central shear discharges

We examine the linear and nonlinear stability of a sequence of reversed shear NSTX equilibria with the same toroidal current density and pressure profile but with different toroidal field strengths. All equilibria have two q = 2 surfaces and have q > 1 everywhere. For this sequence, which all have β P ∼ 0.5, as the minimum value of q decreases below about 1.4, the localized resistive interchange criterion is strongly violated, and the unstable mode with toroidal mode number n=1 changes its dominant poloidal mode number m from a (m,n)=(2,1) double tearing mode to a non-resonant (1,1) infernal mode. This (1,1) mode nonlinearly flattens both the current density and the pressure near the magnetic axis. The higher-n unstable modes are all resistive infernal modes localized around the surface where q has a minimum and the magnetic shear vanishes. They generally saturate nonlinearly at low amplitude but can cause magnetic surface breakup near the axis.

Spitzer resistivity↗

DIREXENO—an apparatus for measuring correlated scintillation signatures in liquid xenon

We present a detector apparatus, DIREXENO (DIREctional XENOn), designed to measure the spatial and temporal properties of scintillation in liquid xenon to very high accuracy. The properties of scintillation are of primary importance for dark matter and neutrinoless double beta decay experiments; however the complicated microphysics involved limits theoretical predictions. We will explore the possibility that scintillation emission exhibits spatial correlations such as super-radiance which manifests in temporal and spatial structure, depending on the interaction type. Such properties of scintillation light may open a new window for background rejection as well as directionality measurements. We present the apparatus' technical design and the concepts driving it. We demonstrate that for an energy deposition of ~2.5 keV (~7.5 keV) electron (nuclear) recoil the detector is sensitive to an anisotropy fraction of as little as ~ 20% of the total photons emitted over a solid angle of ~0.85 steradian or less. We show results from commissioning runs in which the detector operated with 17 PMTs for over 44 days in stable conditions. The time resolution for individual photons in different PMTs was measured to be ≲1.4 ns full-width at half-maximum

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Comprehensive analytical model of the dynamic 𝑍 pinch

In this work we present an analytical 1D axisymmetric model describing the evolution of the dynamic 𝑍 pinch. This model is capable of predicting the trajectories of the imploding sheath's magnetic piston and preceding shock front, along with the velocity, pressure, density, and magnetic field profiles, for any time-dependent current, spatially varying initial density profile, and weak initial axial field. The implosion is divided into stages, with each stage described by a set of coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the ideal MHD equations. Comparisons with experimental data from the COBRA pulsed-power facility are quite promising and imply this model could prove useful in designing and analyzing future pulsed-power experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gravitational memory and Ward identities in the local detector frame

Gravitational memory, which describes the permanent shift in the strain after the passage of gravitational waves, is directly related to Weinberg’s soft graviton theorems and the Bondi-Metzner-Sachs (BMS) symmetry group of asymptotically flat space-times. In this work, we provide an equivalent description of the phenomenon in local coordinates around gravitational wave detectors, such as transverse-traceless (TT) gauge. We show that gravitational memory is encoded in large residual diffeomorphisms in this gauge, which include time-dependent anisotropic spatial rescalings, and prove their equivalence to BMS transformations when translated to TT gauge. We then derive the associated Ward identities and associated soft theorems, for both scattering amplitudes and equal-time (in-in) correlation functions, and explicitly check their validity for planar gravitational waves. Furthermore, the in-in identities are recognized as the flat-space analog of the well-known inflationary consistency relations.

General relativity↗

Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production

Abstract Marginal land has received wide attention for its potential to produce bioenergy feedstocks while minimizing diversion of productive agricultural land from food crop production. However, there has been no consensus in the literature on how to define or identify land that is marginal for food crops and beneficial for bioenergy crops. Studies have used different definitions to quantify the amount of such land available; these have largely been based on assumed biophysical thresholds for soil quality and productivity that are unchanging over space and time. We discuss the limitations of these definitions and the rationale for considering economic returns and environmental outcomes in classifying land as marginal. We then propose the concept of “socially” marginal which is defined as land that is earning close to zero returns after accounting for the monetized costs of environmental externalities generated. We discuss a broad set of criteria for classifying land as socially marginal for food crops and suitable for bioenergy crops; with these criteria, this classification depends on spatially varying and time‐varying factors, such as climate and market conditions and policy incentives. While there are challenges related to identifying this marginal land, satellite and other large‐scale datasets increasingly enable such analysis at a fine spatial resolution. We also discuss reasons why landowners might choose not to convert bioenergy‐suitable land to bioenergy crops, and thus the need for policy incentives to support conversion of land that is socially beneficial for bioenergy crop production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nuclear Spectroscopy for the Exploration of Mars and Beyond

Nuclear spectroscopy will continue to play a critical role in planetary exploration in the next decade, including searching for habitable environments and biosignatures, identifying ideal targets for in-situ resource utilization, and continuing its track record in understanding planetary evolution. Nuclear spectroscopy is the only technique that provides bulk geochemical abundance at depth, at a range of spatial scales depending on platform.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗