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NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2022

On the Origin of the Photospheric Magnetic Field

This article presents results that challenge the paradigms that (1) the convection zone is the source of the radial magnetic field in the photosphere and (2) that coronal currents are neutralized from the perspective of the photosphere. We demonstrate, using a new analysis tool applied to simulations and observations, that bare or partially dressed current channels are supported by the solar corona and that fingerprints of these coronal current systems can be detected in the photosphere. These coronal current channels can be a significant source of the radial component of the magnetic field in the photosphere. The roots of these coronal current channels in the photosphere are the source of the magnetic field component parallel to the polarity inversion line in active region NOAA 12673. These analyses and observations transform our theoretical understanding of coronal evolution and argue for a reexamination of the present paradigm in which the convection zone is the sole source of the photospheric magnetic field.

magnetic fields↗
NASA NTRS2022

Dependence of Energetic Storm Particle Heavy Ion Peak Intensities and Spectra on Source CME Longitude and Speed

We examine variations in energetic storm particle (ESP) heavy ion peak intensities and energy spectra at CME-driven interplanetary shocks. We focus on their dependence with heliolongitude relative to the source region of their associated CMEs, and with CME speed, for events observed in Solar Cycle 24 at the STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and/or ACE spacecraft. We find that observations of ESP events at 1 au are organized by longitude relative to their CME solar source. The ESP event longitude distribution also showed organization with CME speed. The near-Sun CME speeds (V i ) for these events ranged from ∼560 to 2650 km s −1 while the average CME transit speeds to 1 au were significantly slower. The angular width of the events had a clear threshold at V i of ∼1300 km s −1 , above which events showed significantly larger angular extension compared to events with speeds below. High-speed events also showed larger heavy ion peak intensities near the nose of the shock compared to the flanks while their spectral index was smaller near the nose and larger near the flanks. This organization for events with V i < 1300 km s −1 was not as clear. These ESP events were observed over a narrower range of longitudes though the heavy ion peak intensities still appeared largest near the nose of the shock. Their heavy ion spectra showed no clear organization with longitude. These observations highlight the impact of spacecraft position relative to the CME source longitude and Vi on the properties of ESP events at 1 au.

Solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1994

Injection profiles of solar energetic particles as functions of coronal mass ejection heights

Previous studies with Skylab and Solwind coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have shown that nearly all large E greater than 10 MeV solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with fast (v greater than 400 km/sec) CMEs. We compare heights of CMEs observed on the SMM spacecraft with the flux-time profiles of five associated SEP events observed by the GOES spacecraft, including three events observed as ground-level events (GLEs) by neutron monitors. The SEP injection profiles as functions of the CME heights are estimated from the 'solar release times' and the effects of interplanetary scattering. We find that the peaks of the 470 MeV to 4 GeV injection profiles of the GLEs occur when CME heights reach 5 to 15 R(sub 0) or greater and that the onsets occur no earlier than the maxima of the flare impulsive phases. In those events SEP injection appears to result only from a single CME-driven shock and not from the flare impulsive phase or from separate coronal and interplanetary shocks. In one small SEP event an impulsive flux-time profile is consistent with injection during the flare impulsive phase but could also be due to injection from a coronal shock over a limited time.

Kahler, S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves over the solar cycle and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by "in situ" solar wind instruments. This report covers the period from 15 February 2003 to 14 April 2004. During that time, UVCS observations have consisted of three types: 1) standard synoptic observations comprising, primarily, the H I Lyalpha line profile and the 0 VI 103.2 and 103.7 nm intensity over a range of heights from 1.5 to about 3.0 solar radii and covering 360 degrees about the Sun, 2) sit and stare observations for major flare watches, and 3) special observations designed by the UVCS Lead Observer of the Week for a specific scientific purpose. The special observations are often coordinated with those of other space-based and ground-based instruments and they often are part of SOHO joint observation programs and campaigns. Lead observers have included UVCS Co-Investigators, scientists from the solar physics community and several graduate and undergraduate level students. UVCS has continued to achieve its purpose of using powerful spectroscopic diagnostic techniques to obtain a much more detailed description of coronal structures and dynamic phenomena than existed before the SOHO mission. The new descriptions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal structures from UVCS have inspired a large number of theoretical studies aimed at identifying the physical processes responsible for CMEs and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and streamers. UVCS has proven to be a very stable instrument. Stellar observations have demonstrated its radiometric stability. UVCS has not required any flight software modifications and all mechanisms are operational. The UVCS 0 VI Channel with its redundant optical path for wavelengths near H I Lyalpha is capable of observing the entire UVCS wavelength range. The regions of the detector currently being used require different grating angles for direct OVI observations and redundant path H I Lyalpha observations, and so those can no longer be observed simultaneously. Since December 1998, the 0 VI Channel has been used for all UVCS observations. Although the H I Lyalpha Channel and detector are still operational, increases in the dark count up to about 5x10(exp 4) counts/sec/pixel and an increase in high voltage current to within a factor of two of the maximum used in the laboratory before flight led to the decision to not use that detector after 1998. The visible light channel functioned nominally during the reporting period. UVCS data, data analysis software, calibration files and the mission log are available from the SOHO archive and SAO. All UVCS data are now available within three months of the observations to scientists and the general public via the SOHO Data Archive and SAO. UVCS has resulted in 33 scientific papers in 2003. There were numerous presentations at scientific meetings. UVCS Education and Public Outreach activities involved nine members of the UVCS team. During the reporting period, there were over a dozen events directed at students and teachers, museum audiences, and public audiences via the mass media, internet and educational literature.

Gurman, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2003

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves over the solar cycle and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by 'in situ' solar wind instruments. This report covers the period from 01 February 2002 to 15 February 2003. During that time, UVCS observations have consisted of three types: 1) standard synoptic observations comprising, primarily, the H I Ly alpha line profile and the O VI 103.2 and 103.7 nm intensity over a range of heights from 1.5 to about 3.0 solar radii and covering 360 degrees about the sun, 2) sit and stare watches for CMEs, and 3) special observations designed by the UVCS Lead Observer of the Week for a specific scientific purpose. The special observations are often coordinated with those of other space-based and ground-based instruments and they often are part of SOHO joint observation programs and campaigns. Lead observers have included UVCS Co-Investigators, scientists from the solar physics community and several graduate and undergraduate level students. UVCS has continued to achieve its purpose of using powerful spectroscopic diagnostic techniques to obtain a much more detailed description of coronal structures and dynamic phenomena than existed before the SOHO mission. The new descriptions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal structures from UVCS have inspired a large number of theoretical studies aimed at identifying the physical processes responsible for CMEs and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and streamers. UVCS has proven to be a very stable instrument. Stellar observations have demonstrated its stability. UVCS has required no flight software modifications and all mechanisms are operational. The UVCS O VI Channel with its redundant optical path for wavelengths near H I Ly alpha is capable of observing the entire UVCS wavelength range. Since December 1998, the O VI Channel has been used for all UVCS observations. Although the H I Ly alpha Channel and detector are still operational, increases in the dark count up to about 5 x 10(exp -4) counts/sec/pixel and an increase in high voltage current to within a factor of two of the maximum used in the laboratory before flight led to the decision to not use that detector at the present time. There is no significant decrease in the scientific capability of UVCS owing to the O VI channel redundant optical path. UVCS data, data analysis software, calibration files and the mission log are available from the SOHO archive and SAO. All UVCS data is now available to scientists and the general public via the SOHO Data Archive and SAO within three months of the observations. UVCS has resulted in 46 scientific papers in 2002. There were numerous presentations at scientific meetings. All requests for observation time by qualified outside users have been granted.

Kohl, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Heliospheric Magnetic Field Over the Hale Cycle

The concept that open magnetic flux of the Sun (rooted with one and only one footpoint at the Sun) is a conserved quantity is taking root in the heliospheric community. Observations show that the Sun's open magnetic flux returns to the baseline from one solar minimum to the next. The temporary enhancement in the 1AU heliospheric magnetic flux near solar maximum can be accounted for by the temporary creation of closed magnetic flux (with two footpoints at the Sun) during the ejection of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are more frequent near solar maximum. As a part of the International Heliophysical Year activities, this paper reviews two recently discussed consequences of open flux conservation: the reversal of open magnetic flux over the solar cycle driven by Coronal Mass Ejections and the impacts of open flux conservation on the global structure of the heliospheric magnetic field. These studies demonstrate the inherent linkages between coronal mass ejections, footpoint motions back at the Sun, and the global structure and evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field.

Schwardron, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effects of the driving mechanism in MHD simulations of coronal mass ejections

Results of time-dependent MHD simulations of mass ejections in the solar coronal are presented. Previous authors have shown that results from simulations using a thermal driving mechanism are consistent with the observations only if an elaborate model of the initial corona is used. The first simulation effort, using a simple model of a plasmoid as the driving mechanism and a simple model of the initial corona, produces results that are also consistent with many observational features, suggesting that the nature of the driving mechanism plays an important role in determining the subsequent evolution of mass ejections. First simulations are based on the assumption that mass ejections are driven by magnetic forces.

Linker, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2022

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1998

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves from a period of minimum activity to maximum and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CME's), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by the CELIAS/SOHO experiment. We must observe a wide range of conditions (e.g., heating rate, impulsive mass ejections, magnetic field opening) in order to choose among competing theoretical explanations of the observed coronal structures and dynamics. During the first year of scientific observations (1 April 1996 through 31 March 1997), the LTVCS made the first extensive ultraviolet spectroscopic observations above the base of the solar corona. Those observations revealed extremely high most probable speeds along the line of sight for O(5+) in polar coronal holes above 2 solar radii from sun center and smaller such speeds for H(0) and protons. Doppler dimming and pumping diagnostics indicated that O(5+) and H(0) I reached supersonic outflow velocities within 2 solar radii. The observations appeared to be consistent with O95+) heating and direct momentum transfer by high frequency MHD waves through ion cyclotron resonance. Equatorial streamers were found to appear much different when observed in O VI, Fe XII and Mg X than when observed in H I Lyman-alpha or visible light. This led G. Noci to suggest that the elemental abundance of O, Fe, and Mg are lower in the dark center region of the O VI streamer image than it is in the brighter outer legs of the streamer. The O VI line ratio indicated a much smaller outflow speed in streamers than in the surrounding coronal holes. Spectroscopic observations of CME's in June and December 1996 showed large Doppler shifts indicating macroscopic flows of up to 200 km/s transverse to the apparent motion of the CME. The December event displayed factor of 500 intensity increases in H I Lyman lines and bright emissions in cool ion lines like C III 977 A indicating that the origin of some of the gas was a prominence. UVCS also observed two comets, several stars and interplanetary hydrogen. In the current reporting period, the initial results were published and detailed analyses including self consistent empirical models were developed. The research results were reported, published or submitted/accepted for publication. New observations were made to uncover additional information about the surprising results of the first year and other new observations revealed more surprises. A UVCS Tutorial was developed to familiarize potential users of UVCS data with the data products, analysis techniques and coronal models needed to analyze the data.

Kohl, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric Structure (FETCH) Instrument

There continue to be open questions regarding the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). For example: how do magnetic fields within CMEs and corotating/stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs) evolve in the inner heliosphere? What is the radially distributed magnetic profile of shock-driving CMEs? What is the internal magnetic structure of CMEs that cause magnetic storms? It is clear that these questions involve the magnetic configurations of solar wind and transient interplanetary plasma structures, for which we have limited knowledge. In order to better understand the origin of the magnetic field variability in steady-state structures and transient events, it is necessary to probe the magnetic field in Earth-directed structures/disturbances. This is the goal of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission (Gopalswamy et al., 2022). For MOST to answer the aforementioned questions, we propose the instrument concept of the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH), a simultaneous quad-line-of-sight polarization radio remote-sensing instrument. With FETCH, spacecraft radio beams passing through the Sun–Earth line offer the possibility of obtaining information of plasma conditions via analysis of radio propagation effects such as Faraday rotation and wave dispersion, which provide information of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC). This is the goal of the FETCH instrument, one of ten instruments proposed to be hosted on the MOST mission. The MOST mission will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve NASA’s heliophysics science goal to “explore and characterize the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun” (Gopalswamy et al., 2022).

Solar corona↗
NASA NTRS2021

Empirical Model of 10 – 130 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Spectra at 1 AU Based on Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Direction

We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass ejection (CME), and the magnetic-field-line connection angle. The CME measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.

Alessandro Bruno↗
NASA NTRS1997

An overview of IACG campaign 4: Solar sources of heliospheric structure observed out of the ecliptic

In 1994, the Inter Agency Consultative Group (IACG), with represenation from ESA, the Japanese Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, the Russian Space Agency, and NASA, initiated a data analysis campaign entitled: 'solar sources of heliospheric structure observed out of the ecliptic' (IACG campaign 4). The primary campaign themes are: the large-scale heliosphere and its dependence on solar photospheric and coronal phenomena; the topology of coronal streamers; the 3D shape of coronal hole boundaries, and solar wind source and acceleration. These themes emphasize the collaborative analysis of remote sensing and in situ data sets for solar features such as coronal holes, coronal mass ejections, and other other solar sources of heliospheric structure. The key observation intervals, covering June 1994 to January 1997, were selected based on the timeline of the unique trajectory of the Ulysses mission. The capabilities and opportunities afforded by the core campaing missions, Ulysses and Yohkoh, and the availability of supportin solar ground observatories and other spacecraft missions, make this campaign of special interest to the solar and heliospheric communities.

Galvin, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Geomagnetic Activity Indicates Large Amplitude for Sunspot Cycle 24

The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average - similar in size to cycles 21 and 22.

Hathaway, D. H.↗