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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Solar irradiance variations and solar activity

A mean value for the 1 AU total solar irradiance of 1368.2 W/sq m and a downward trend of 0.05% per year were derived from measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission during 1980. Distinct temporary solar irradiance decreases associated with solar activity maxima were observed with a series of nine dips from April to October recurring at fairly regular intervals averaging 24 days. The decreases correlate inversely with sunspot area, 2800-MHz flux, and Zurich sunspot number. Dominant periods common to the irradiance and sunspot area power spectra link the irradiance decreases to sunspot flux deficit in solar active regions. Evidence of significant total irradiance modulation by facular flux excess is cited. A persistent radiative cycle of active regions consistent with the ACRIM irradiance results and the morphology of solar active regions was found. The pattern of regularly recurrent active region maxima between April and October suggests an asymmetry in solar activity generation during this period.

Willson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Extreme ultraviolet spectrum of a solar active region from SERTS

We present wavelengths and absolute intensities for 243 emission lines from a single active region observed by the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) on 1989 May 5. For this catalog, the imaged spectra have been spatially averaged over a field of view 7 sec x 276 sec cutting through the center of AR5464 at S18 W45. Wavelength coverage is 170-450 A with a spectral resolution approaching 10,000. Most of the line positions are determined to 5 mA or better, representing the highest accuracy yet obtained for solar wavelengths throughout this spectral interval. The relative photometric calibration of the instrument is good to +/- 20% over its first-order range, and has been placed onto an absolute scale that should be correct to within a factor less than 2. Where known, identifications, atomic transitions and formation temperatures are also given. The identified lines arise from temperatures that cover the range log T greater than or equal to 4.7 and less than or equal to 6.8, providing information about the Sun's corona and upper transition region. Upper limits to the intensity of any emission line not included here can be estimated from the measured instrumental sensitivity. This averaged EUV spectrum should prove useful as a source of accurate wavelengths and intensities for emission characteristic of the high-temperature plasma associated with a solar active region and small subflare.

Thomas, Roger J.↗
DOE OSTI2015

INVESTIGATION OF HELICITY AND ENERGY FLUX TRANSPORT IN THREE EMERGING SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

We report the results of an investigation of helicity and energy flux transport from three emerging solar active regions (ARs). Using time sequence vector magnetic field observations obtained from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, the velocity field of plasma flows is derived by the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms. In three cases, the magnetic fluxes evolve to pump net positive, negative, and mixed-sign helicity flux into the corona. The coronal helicity flux is dominantly coming from the shear term that is related to horizontal flux motions, whereas energy flux is dominantly contributed by the emergence term. The shear helicity flux has a phase delay of 5–14 hr with respect to absolute magnetic flux. The nonlinear curve of coronal energy versus relative helicity identifies the configuration of coronal magnetic fields, which is approximated by a fit of linear force-free fields. The nature of coronal helicity related to the particular pattern of evolving magnetic fluxes at the photosphere has implications for the generation mechanism of two kinds of observed activity in the ARs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Relation between monthly variations of global ozone and solar activity

Monthly averaged variations of global ozone determined from infrared interferometer spectrometer measurements aboard Nimbus 4 are shown to be consistently in agreement with monthly averaged variations of solar activity. The relationship between monthly changes of ozone and solar activity are found to be generally consistent with the longer-term variations of ozone over the last solar cycle and can be accounted for by assuming monthly solar flux variations near 0.2 micron of about 2%.

Keating, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Overview of the Temperature Response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere to Solar Activity

The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.

Beig, Gufran↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comments on the course of solar activity during the declining phase of solar cycle 20 /1970-74/

Observational data on sunspots, the 2800-MHz flux, and calcium plages are interpreted which were obtained during the declining phase of solar cycle 20. It is shown that three pulses of activity occurred during this period and resulted in two conspicuous 'stillstands' in the smooth means of the sunspot, 2800-MHz, and plage data. The longitudes of centers of sunspot and flare activity are found to have clustered in identifiable zones or hemispheres for relatively long periods of time. The sun is seen to have had a relatively inactive hemisphere centered about zero deg longitude, and certain well defined coronal holes were apparently located near the middle of this hemisphere. The first sunspot groups of cycle 21 are observed to have formed in the longitude zones associated with relatively high levels of activity during cycle 20.

Dodson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar-terrestrial predictions proceedings. Volume 4: Prediction of terrestrial effects of solar activity

Papers about prediction of ionospheric and radio propagation conditions based primarily on empirical or statistical relations is discussed. Predictions of sporadic E, spread F, and scintillations generally involve statistical or empirical predictions. The correlation between solar-activity and terrestrial seismic activity and the possible relation between solar activity and biological effects is discussed.

Donnelly, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

New information on solar activity, 1779-1818, from Sir William Herschel's unpublished notebooks

Herschel's observations are analyzed in order to determine the level of solar activity for solar cycle 5. It is concluded that solar cycle 5 may have peaked as early as 1801 based upon the average number of groups with a probable secondary maximum in 1804. Depending on the technique adopted, the peak for solar cycle 5 occurred sometime between 1801 and 1804, rather than 1805.2, as commonly assumed. Instead of a solar cycle of 17 yrs, a cycle length of 14 yrs is found. It is also found that the peak yearly mean sunspot number is only about 38 rather than 45, as deduced by Wolf (1855). A technique for making early solar observations homogeneous with modern sunspot observations is proposed.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effects on the orbital debris environment due to solar activity

The rate that earth-orbiting debris is removed from the environment is dependent on a number of factors which include orbital altitude and solar activity. It is generally believed that at lower altitudes and especially during periods of high solar activity, debris generated in the past will be eliminated from the environment. While some debris is eliminated, most is replaced by old debris from higher altitudes or new debris from recent launches. Some low altitude debris, which would reenter if the debris were in circular orbits, does not reenter because the debris is in higher-energy elliptical orbits.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Determining heating timescales in solar active region cores from AIA/SDO Fe XVIII images

We present a study of the frequency of transient brightenings in the core of solar active regions as observed in the Fe XVIII line component of AIA/SDO 94 Å filter images. The Fe XVIII emission is isolated using an empirical correction to remove the contribution of 'warm' emission to this channel. Comparing with simultaneous observations from EIS/Hinode, we find that the variability observed in Fe XVIII is strongly correlated with the emission from lines formed at similar temperatures. We examine the evolution of loops in the cores of active regions at various stages of evolution. Using a newly developed event detection algorithm, we characterize the distribution of event frequency, duration, and magnitude in these active regions. These distributions are similar for regions of similar age and show a consistent pattern as the regions age. This suggests that these characteristics are important constraints for models of solar active regions. We find that the typical frequency of the intensity fluctuations is about 1400 s for any given line of sight, i.e., about two to three events per hour. Using the EBTEL 0D hydrodynamic model, however, we show that this only sets a lower limit on the heating frequency along that line of sight.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Least-Squares Prediction of Solar Activity

Studies of statistical methods for predicting future solar activity described in report containing extensive graphical and tabular presentations of analyses. Lagrangian-least-squares method, which gives best predictions presented in detail. FORTRAN source code for method given.

Holland, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

VLA observations of fine structures in a solar active region at 6 centimeter wavelength

A complex solar active region at 6 cm has been observed with the VLA. Radio images of the region have been constructed and compared with simultaneous optical data from the region. It is found that all radio sources are associated with either sunspots or regions of the corona where strong transverse magnetic fields are likely, that the transverse field sources are brighter than the sunspot sources, and that some of the sunspot sources have a polarized ring structure. The observations are interpreted in terms of thermal gyroresonance emission, with the radiation from the transverse field sources being at the third harmonic of the gyrofrequency and predominantly at the second harmonic from the sunspot sources.

Mcconnell, D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The solar wind effect on cosmic rays and solar activity

The relation of cosmic ray intensity to solar wind velocity is investigated, using neutron monitor data from Kiel and Deep River. The analysis shows that the regression coefficient of the average intensity for a time interval to the corresponding average velocity is negative and that the absolute effect increases monotonously with the interval of averaging, tau, that is, from -0.5% per 100km/s for tau = 1 day to -1.1% per 100km/s for tau = 27 days. For tau 27 days the coefficient becomes almost constant independently of the value of tau. The analysis also shows that this tau-dependence of the regression coefficiently is varying with the solar activity.

Fujimoto, K.↗