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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCALE Lattice Physics Code Assessments of Accident Tolerant Fuel

This report highlights accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) code assessment activities performed under Project NRCHQ- 60-17-T-0017, Lattice Physics Enhancements and Assessment. ATF covers a broad range of advanced fuel and clad designs for light water reactors (LWRs) to enhance performance under several accident conditions. Several ATF concepts are anticipated to be deployed as lead test rods (LTRs) or lead test assemblies (LTAs) within the next five years. The purpose of this work is to assess the predictive capabilities of NRC neutronics codes that underpin various licensing calculations. ATF designs use different fuel and clad materials compared to standard UO 2 fuel and zirconium-alloy claddings (hereafter UO 2 -Zry). These new materials and geometrical designs need to be assessed to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on quantities of interest (QOIs) in licensing calculations and the impact of modeling approximations which may be valid for UO 2 -Zry but not for ATF. This report outlines a systematic approach for ATF neutronics code assessment which includes sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of nuclear data, identification of experimental benchmark and gaps for code validation, investigation of modeling approximations, and code-to-code comparisons of calculated QOIs against high-fidelity reference continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) calculations. This report focuses on the assessment of the SCALE/Polaris lattice physics code for reactor safety analysis. Polaris lattice physics calculations generate few group (FG) cross sections for PARCS full-core calculations. (Full-core analysis, spent fuel analysis, and severe accident analysis will be performed in future work.) The selected ATF concepts for this report include Cr 2 O 3 and Al 2 O 3 -Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, U 3 Si 2 fuel, FeCrAl cladding, SiC cladding, and Cr-coated cladding.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of Mixing Law Efficacy for Gaseous Hydrodynamic Simulations

A computational simulation of various mixing laws for gaseous equations of state using planar traveling shocks for multiple mixtures in three dimensions is analyzed against nominal experimental data. Numerical simulations utilize the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH and other codes including the thermochemical equilibrium code TIGER and the uncertainty qualification and sensitivity analysis code DAKOTA. The mixtures are a 1:1 and a 1:3 molar mixture of helium and sulfur hexafluoride. The mixing laws to be analyzed are the ideal gas law, Amagat's Law, Dalton's Law, the BKW EOS, the EXP6 EOS, and the JCZ3 EOS. Examination of the experimental data with TIGER revealed that the shock strength should not be strong enough to turn the mixture non-ideal as the compressibility factor z was essentially unity (z ≈ 1.02). Experimental results show that none of the equations of state are able to accurately predict the properties of the shocked mixture; similar discrepancies have been observed in previous works. Kinetic molecular theory appears to introduce a parameter which offers an explanation regarding the discrepancies. Implementation of the KMT pararneter into the EOS is left for future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Reflected Target Optical Assessment System - Stage 1 Development Results: Preprint

NREL has completed stage 1 development of an indoor optical measurement tool for fully assembled heliostats and single facets. This tool began as an indoor version of NREL's NIO technique. It uses similar techniques to other available tools (deflectometry, photogrammetry, etc.), but is designed require very little infrastructure, labor, and time to set up and collect surface slope and canting measurements on fully assembled heliostats and parabolic trough facets, making it a valuable tool for quality assurance and laboratory measurement of helio-stat optics. It accomplishes this by using computer vision, photogrammetry, and multiple images stitched together to minimize the printed target size and required setup precision. This adaptable setup is useful for taking measurements at a variety of heliostat pointing angles, and for measuring fully assembled heliostats on the assembly line. The measurement system's methodology and an analysis of its uncertainty, sensitivity and comparison with established optical measurement systems is described below.

canting↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Critical Parameter Identification of Fuel-Cell Models Using Sensitivity Analysis

Numerical modeling has been a vital tool in proton-exchange-membrane fuel-cell (PEMFC) analysis; however, the predictive capabilities of these models depend on the input physical parameters, several of which are either not experimentally measured or have large scatter in measured values. This article presents an uncertainty propagation-based sensitivity analysis to identify the model parameters that impact the model predictions most. A comprehensive 2-D membrane electrode assembly (MEA) model is used to perform local sensitivity analysis at multiple operating conditions, which encompass the range of environments and operating conditions a cell can encounter. While at lower humidities, cathode kinetics and membrane-ohmic-loss related parameters are crucial, gas transport and porous-media saturation behavior are more important at humidified conditions. Several of these findings are different from previous studies presented in literature. Identifying the crucial parameters helps focus future material and cell optimization studies as well as experimental studies to quantify these parameters with higher accuracy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HTR-Proteus Benchmark: Analysis and Use as a Verification and Validation Case

This presentation outlines the evaluation and application of the HTR-Proteus benchmark as a verification and validation (V&V) case for advanced reactor modeling tools. The work supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s HALEU Availability Program (HAP) and the joint DOE/NRC DNCSH project, which aims to reduce criticality safety uncertainties in commercial-scale HALEU fuel cycle and transportation systems. The HTR-Proteus experiments, conducted at the Paul Scherrer Institute, provide high-fidelity data for TRISO-fueled, graphite-moderated pebble bed reactors with high neutron leakage—conditions relevant to HALEU transport scenarios. This study focuses on Cores 4.2 and 4.3 of the HTR-Proteus benchmark, analyzing key sources of uncertainty including pebble packing, TRISO particle positioning, and core height. Using Project Chrono for realistic pebble geometries and Serpent, SHIFT, and MCNP for neutronics simulations, the study quantifies the impact of these uncertainties on the effective multiplication factor (keff). Results show that a sample size of 110 pebble configurations is sufficient to converge keff, with ±30 pcm uncertainty due to packing randomness. TRISO positioning and core height variations also significantly influence keff, highlighting the importance of detailed modeling in V&V efforts. The benchmark serves as a valuable test case for validating the Griffin reactor physics code and improving confidence in HALEU system simulations.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Impact Assessment for the HTR-10 Pebble-Bed Reactor Using SCALE

The HTR-10 was used as a representative pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in this assessment of nuclear data’s impact on important reactor and spent fuel metrics, including safety-related quantities such as the effective multiplication factor (k eff ), temperature reactivity feedback, spent fuel inventory, and decay heat. Using the SCALE code system tools and ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries, we quantify the effect of nuclear data uncertainties on these key performance metrics for both fresh fuel and equilibrium core configurations. For reactor core key parameters, important contributors to uncertainty include reactions of 235 U [$\bar{v}$, fission, (n, γ)], 238 U [elastic, (n, γ)], and graphite [elastic, (n, γ)]. Additional important contributors for the equilibrium core include reactions of higher actinides ( 239 Pu, 240 Pu) and fission products ( 135 Xe, 149 Sm). For spent fuel analysis, most nuclide inventory uncertainties remain below 5%. Higher uncertainties up to 11% are being observed for minor actinides like 243 Am and 244 Cm. Additionally, fission product uncertainties in 155 Eu and 155 Gd, of 25% and 23% respectively, are also significant and have implications for burnup credit applications. 110m Ag also shows high uncertainty of up to 11%, mainly due to fission product yield uncertainties. Decay heat relative uncertainties remain below 0.6% up to 10 years’ cooling time after fuel discharge. The highest relative uncertainty of 1.5% occurs at 500 years of cooling; however, because the decay heat value is very low at that time, the absolute uncertainty is not significant. This work demonstrates that extending assessments beyond fresh fuel k eff to include irradiated cores, nuclide inventories, and decay heat is essential in understanding the behavior of uncertainties as a function of fuel burnup and can support improvements of safety margins and spent fuel management.

Nuclear data impact↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of surface runoff and infiltration partition methods on hydrological modeling: A comparison of four schemes in two watersheds in the Northeastern US

The ratio according to which the precipitation/snowmelt is divided into surface and subsurface water is of primary importance to watershed scale hydrological modeling. The present study compared four different surface runoff and infiltration partition methods in the Richards-equation-based SWAT model (RSWAT), i.e., daily curve number method (DC-RSWAT), hourly curve number method (HC-RSWAT), Green-Ampt method (GA-RSWAT), and effective infiltration capacity method (EIC-RSWAT). These four versions of RSWAT and a daily-curve-number-based SWAT (DC-SWAT) were used to simulate daily flow rate (from 2001 to 2015) at the outlets of the Tuckahoe Creek Watershed (TCW) and Greensboro Watershed (GW) of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland. Parameter sensitivity analysis, calibration, and prediction uncertainty analysis were conducted. The results indicate that surface runoff and infiltration partition methods have pronounced impacts on model performance. Comparative analysis showed that DC-RSWAT outperformed other versions of RSWAT for both calibration (from 2001 to2007) and validation (from 2008 to 2015) periods in the two test watersheds. In general, DC-RSWAT achieved more accurate deterministic flow simulation and reliable uncertainty estimation than other versions. As such, daily-curve-number method is recommended for surface runoff and infiltration partition in RSWAT for simulating stream flow.

hydrology, modeling, streamflow↗