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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Field Sensitivity Analysis of Turbulence Model Parameters for Flow Over a Wing

Reynolds-averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models are a critical tool in computational-fluid-dynamics simulations of aerodynamic systems, but simulation results can be highly sensitive to RANS-model parameter choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify these impacts, and the objective of this study is to demonstrate field sensitivity analysis with respect to ten parameters in the 2003 Menter shear-stress-transport (SST) turbulence model. Here, the analysis is demonstrated for an application relevant to wind energy, namely, flow over a NACA 0015 wing at 12 degree angle of attack and a Reynolds number of 1.5 x 10 6 . We quantify sensitivity using Sobol indices and the mean-squared gradient, which are estimated using polynomial chaos and active subspace models, respectively. Our results indicate that there are substantial spatial variations in parameter sensitivities, with different sets of most-sensitive parameters near the wing, as well as in the downstream wake, consistent with the physical interpretations of the turbulence model inputs. We show that, for this particular turbulence model and flow, simultaneous dimension reduction is possible across all quantities of interest, enabling efficient exploration of model outcomes. Ultimately, this analysis provides new insights into turbulence model parameter sensitivities in incompressible flows, and also demonstrates the implementation of field sensitivity analysis for applications relevant to aerodynamics simulations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of an Electrospray Dehumidification System

Electrically enhanced condensation achieved by an electrospray system can enhance dehumidification in HVAC applications if successfully scaled up. The first step towards scale-up is identifying critical design and operating parameters that significantly impact dehumidification for the electrospray system. Sensitivity analysis is one approach for identifying critical parameters. This paper presents a methodology that can efficiently perform quantitative sensitivity analysis on a computationally expensive high fidelity simulation model, which is a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the electrospray system. The methodology employs surrogate modeling and Sobol sensitivity analysis. We estimate the main and total effect Sobol sensitivity indices of four operating parameters of the electrospray system. The results reveal that the most important parameter is the size of the sprayed droplets, followed by the volumetric flow rate of the bulk air and injected water in the system. The water injection velocity of the spray was found to have little to no impact on dehumidification.

Young, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters in PDE-Constrained Optimization

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional complexity, namely, uncertain parameters in the PDEs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to characterize, prioritize, and study the influence of these uncertain parameters. Sensitivity analysis, a classical tool in UQ, is frequently used to study the sensitivity of a model to uncertain parameters. In this article, we introduce "hyper-differential sensitivity analysis" which considers the sensitivity of the solution of a PDE-constrained optimization problem to uncertain parameters. Our approach is a goal-oriented analysis which may be viewed as a tool to complement other UQ methods in the service of decision making and robust design. We formally define hyper-differential sensitivity indices and highlight their relationship to the existing optimization and sensitivity analysis literatures. Assuming the presence of low rank structure in the parameter space, computational efficiency is achieved by leveraging a generalized singular value decomposition in conjunction with a randomized solver which converts the computational bottleneck of the algorithm into an embarrassingly parallel loop. Two multi-physics examples, consisting of nonlinear steady state control and transient linear inversion, demonstrate efficient identification of the uncertain parameters which have the greatest influence on the optimal solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivity Analysis and Emulation for Functional Data using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

When a computer code is used to simulate a complex system, one of the fundamental tasks is to assess the sensitivity of the simulator to the different input parameters. In the case of computationally expensive simulators, this is often accomplished via a surrogate statistical model, a statistical output emulator. An effective emulator is one that provides good approximations to the computer code output for wide ranges of input values. In addition, an emulator should be able to handle large dimensional simulation output for a relevant number of inputs; it should flexibly capture heterogeneities in the variability of the response surface; it should be fast to evaluate for arbitrary combinations of input parameters, and it should provide an accurate quantification of the emulation uncertainty. In this paper we discuss the Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression splines (BMARS) as an emulator for a computer model that outputs curves. We introduce modifications to traditional BMARS approaches that allow for fitting large amounts of data and allow for more efficient MCMC sampling. We emphasize the ease with which sensitivity analysis can be performed in this situation. We present a sensitivity analysis of a computer model of the deformation of a protective plate used in pressure-driven experiments. Our example serves as an illustration of the ability of BMARS emulators to fulfill all the necessities of computability, flexibility and reliable calculation on relevant measures of sensitivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1991

Sensitivity analysis and optimization issues in NASTRAN

The purpose is to develop procedures to extract sensitivity analysis information from COSMIC/NASTRAN and to couple it with a mathematical optimization package. At present, the analysis will be limited to stress, displacement, and frequency constraints with structures modeled with membrane elements, rods, and bar elements. Two types of sensitivity analysis are discussed: an adjoint variable approach which is most effective when the number of active constraints is significantly less than the number of physical variables, and an approach based on a first order approximation of a Taylor series. The latter approach is more effective when the number of independent design variables is significantly less than the number of active constraints.

Tischler, V. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation for verification of dry storage cask contents

Dry cask storage is a method for interim storage of spent fuel assemblies which contain fissile isotopes of uranium and plutonium. These can present a proliferation concern and consequently there is a need for non-destructive testing methods to verify a dry cask's contents for proliferation protection. We present an application of adjoint sensitivity analysis and data assimilation to a multigroup diffusion model of dry cask storage. Adjoint sensitivity analysis allows the efficient calculation of sensitivities for use in data assimilation to calibrate imprecisely known parameter values and data consistency tests to detect diversion scenarios. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Recent developments in structural sensitivity analysis

Recent developments in two areas of structural sensitivity analysis are reviewed. These are the sensitivity of static and transient response, and the sensitivity of vibration and buckling eigenproblems. Recent developments from the point of view of computational cost, accuracy, and ease of implementation are considered.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of high concentration photovoltaics (HCPV) power plants in the US Southwest: Economic assessment and sensitivity analysis

High concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) technologies offer several advantages over typical PV systems. In this study, a detailed economic assessment and sensitivity analysis of deploying HCPV plants in the US southwest is performed. To do this, a 20 MWdc HCPV power plant is designed using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and is evaluated from both technical and financial aspects. The sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the installed cost per capacity of the HCPV system can significantly improve the economics and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized power purchase agreement (LPPA). Also, providing proper incentives including both investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), loan debt ratio, and interest rate are among the most influential parameters. The analysis shows that with the 30% ITC, the LCOE, and LPPA of the designed HCPV projects are between $65.4/MWh and $69.3/MWh and between $71.0/MWh and $75.2/MWh, respectively. The estimated LCOE and LPPA values are almost 50% higher than the utility-scale PV projects. If proper funding is provided to continue the support of the HCPV system, they would become more economical and competitive with PV plants. Federal and state government policies must also be established to advocate HCPV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Lbloca In Response To 10 Cfr50.46c New Rulemaking

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10 CFR 50.46c, the US NRC puts forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnupdependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently more fuel rods need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to maintain the safety margin, in contrast to the current practice with which only one hot rod needs to be analyzed. New multi-physics analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of the limiting rods and quantify safety margins under LOCA conditions. The U.S. DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has initiated a project to develop multi-physics analytical capabilities, called LOTUS, to support the industry in the transition to the proposed rule. An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with LOTUS was developed. A typical four-loop PWR plant model was developed and simulated by RELAP5-3D with inputs generated from core design and fuel performance analyses, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with seventeen uncertain input parameters. The maximum equivalent cladding reacted ratio (ECRR) and peak clad temperature ratio (PCTR) were selected as the figures of merit (FOM). Pearson, Spearman, partial correlation coefficients, and Sobol indices were considered for all of the figures of merit in the sensitivity analysis.

10CFR50.46c↗
NASA NTRS1987

The case for aerodynamic sensitivity analysis

No specific solutions are offered, nor verified by applications, for its subject problem which is sensitivity analysis in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Instead, a plea is made to the CFD community for extending their present capability to include sensitivity analysis. The plea is made from the viewpoint of an aeronautical engineer, not an expert in CFD methods, who needs the sensitivity information when working at the junction of aerodynamics, structures, active controls, and other disciplines whose inputs need to be integrated in aircraft design.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Role of Sensitivity Analysis in the Building Performance Analysis: A Critical Review

A building system is highly nonlinear and commonly includes a variety of parameters ranging from the architectural design to the building mechanical and energy system. Serving as a powerful tool to understand the complicated building system, sensitivity analysis (SA) has been receiving increasing attention in the recent decade. This review paper focused on the application of SA in the building performance analysis (BPA). First, the existing review papers on the application of SA for BPA were briefly reviewed and summarized. Then, a large amount of recent SA case studies in BPA were reviewed. The critical information regarding the implementation of a SA, such as the sampling method, the SA method, etc., were extracted and summarized. Next, an extensive analysis was performed to evaluate the role of the SA in the BPA. This includes: 1) The typical selection of the input and output parameters for the SA were visualized; 2) The uncertainty level and sampling strategies for the input parameters were investigated; 3) The principles, benefits, and drawbacks of the SA methods were analyzed and summarized; and 4) The various tools used in the SA, including the simulation software, sampling tools, and SA tools were introduced to facilitate the practitioners. Lastly, several conclusions were summarized on the role of the SA in the BPA. Suggestions were also provided to offer practical solutions to the current challenges.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Efficient sensitivity analysis method for chaotic dynamical systems

The direct differentiation and improved least squares shadowing methods are both developed for accurately and efficiently calculating the sensitivity coefficients of time averaged quantities for chaotic dynamical systems. The key idea is to recast the time averaged integration term in the form of differential equation before applying the sensitivity analysis method. An additional constraint-based equation which forms the augmented equations of motion is proposed to calculate the time averaged integration variable and the sensitivity coefficients are obtained as a result of solving the augmented differential equations. The application of the least squares shadowing formulation to the augmented equations results in an explicit expression for the sensitivity coefficient which is dependent on the final state of the Lagrange multipliers. The LU factorization technique to calculate the Lagrange multipliers leads to a better performance for the convergence problem and the computational expense. Numerical experiments on a set of problems selected from the literature are presented to illustrate the developed methods. The numerical results demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the present approaches and some short impulsive sensitivity coefficients are observed by using the direct differentiation sensitivity analysis method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of mass transfer in active multilayer polymeric film for food applications

The barrier performance of multilayer polymeric films for food applications has been significantly improved by incorporating oxygen scavenging materials. The scavenging activity depends on parameters such as diffusion coefficient, solubility, concentration of scavenger loaded and the number of available reactive sites. These parameters influence the barrier performance of the film in different ways. Virtualization of the process is useful to characterize, design and optimize the barrier performance based on physical configuration of the films. Also, the knowledge of values of parameters is important to predict the performances. Inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis are sole way to find reasonable values of poorly defined, unmeasured parameters and to analyze the most influencing parameters. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a model to predict barrier properties of multilayer film incorporated with reactive layers and to analyze and characterize their performances. Polymeric film based on three layers of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with a core reactive layer, at different thickness configurations was considered in the model. A one dimensional diffusion equation with reaction was solved numerically to predict the concentration of oxygen diffused into the polymer taking into account the reactive ability of the core layer. The model was solved using commercial software for different film layer configurations and sensitivity analysis based on inverse modeling was carried out to understand the effect of physical parameters. The results have shown that the use of sensitivity analysis can provide physical understanding of the parameters which highly affect the gas permeation into the film. Solubility and the number of available reactive sites were the factors mainly influencing the barrier performance of three layered polymeric film. Multilayer films slightly modified the steady transport properties in comparison to net PET, giving a small reduction in the permeability and oxygen transfer rate values. Scavenging capacity of the multilayer film increased linearly with the increase of the reactive layer thickness and the oxygen absorption reaction at short times decreased proportionally with the thickness of the external PET layer.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗