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Harmonizing tau positron emission tomography in Alzheimer's disease: The CenTauR scale and the joint propagation model

Abstract INTRODUCTION Tau‐positron emission tomography (PET) outcome data of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) cannot currently be meaningfully compared or combined when different tracers are used due to differences in tracer properties, instrumentation, and methods of analysis. METHODS Using head‐to‐head data from five cohorts with tau PET radiotracers designed to target tau deposition in AD, we tested a joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification (units termed “CenTauR” [CTR]). JPM is a statistical model that simultaneously models the relationships between head‐to‐head and anchor point data. JPM was compared to a linear regression approach analogous to the one used in the amyloid PET Centiloid scale. RESULTS A strong linear relationship was observed between CTR values across brain regions. Using the JPM approach, CTR estimates were similar to, but more accurate than, those derived using the linear regression approach. DISCUSSION Preliminary findings using the JPM support the development and adoption of a universal scale for tau‐PET quantification. Highlights Tested a novel joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification of tau PET. Units of common scale are termed “CenTauRs”. Tested a Centiloid‐like linear regression approach. Using five cohorts with head‐to‐head tau PET, JPM outperformed linearregressionbased approach. Strong linear relationship was observed between CenTauRs values across brain regions.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

Development of systematic uncertainty-aware neural network trainings for binned-likelihood analyses at the LHC

We propose a neural network training method capable of accounting for the effects of systematic variations of the data model in the training process and describe its extension towards neural network multiclass classification. The procedure is evaluated on the realistic case of the measurement of Higgs boson production via gluon fusion and vector boson fusion in the τ τ decay channel at the CMS experiment. The neural network output functions are used to infer the signal strengths for inclusive production of Higgs bosons as well as for their production via gluon fusion and vector boson fusion. We observe improvements of 12 and 16% in the uncertainty in the signal strengths for gluon and vector-boson fusion, respectively, compared with a conventional neural network training based on cross-entropy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for top squarks in final states with many light-flavor jets and 0, 1, or 2 charged leptons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

Several new physics models including versions of supersymmetry (SUSY) characterized by R-parity violation (RPV) or with additional hidden sectors predict the production of events with top quarks, low missing transverse momentum, and many additional quarks or gluons. The results of a search for top squarks decaying to two top quarks and six additional light-flavor quarks or gluons are reported. The search employs a novel machine learning method for background estimation from control samples in data using decorrelated discriminators. The search is performed using events with 0, 1, or 2 electrons or muons in conjunction with at least six jets. No requirement is placed on the magnitude of the missing transverse momentum. The result is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV corresponding to 138 fb −1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018. With no statistically significant excess of events observed beyond the expected contributions from the standard model, the data are used to determine upper limits on the top squark pair production cross section in the frameworks of RPV and stealth SUSY. Models with top squark masses less than 700 (930) GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level for RPV (stealth) SUSY scenarios.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

Muon identification using multivariate techniques in the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 13 TeV

The identification of prompt and isolated muons, as well asmuons from heavy-flavour hadron decays, is an important task. Wedeveloped two multivariate techniques to provide highly efficientidentification for muons with transverse momentum greater than10 GeV. One provides a continuous variable as an alternative to acut-based identification selection and offers a betterdiscrimination power against misidentified muons. The other oneselects prompt and isolated muons by using isolation requirements toreduce the contamination from nonprompt muons arising inheavy-flavour hadron decays. Both algorithms are developed using59.7 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions data at a centre-of-massenergy of √(s)=13 TeV collected in 2018 with the CMSexperiment at the CERN LHC.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

BICEP/ Keck XII: Constraints on axionlike polarization oscillations in the cosmic microwave background

Here, we present a search for axionlike polarization oscillations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with observations from the Keck Array . A local axion field induces an all-sky, temporally sinusoidal rotation of CMB polarization. A CMB polarimeter can thus function as a direct-detection experiment for axionlike dark matter. We develop techniques to extract an oscillation signal. Many elements of the method are generic to CMB polarimetry experiments and can be adapted for other datasets. As a first demonstration, we process data from the 2012 observing season to set upper limits on the axion-photon coupling constant in the mass range 10 – 21 – 10 – 18 eV , which corresponds to oscillation periods on the order of hours to months. We find no statistically significant deviations from the background model. For periods larger than 24 hr (mass m < 4.8 × 10 – 20 eV ), the median 95% confidence upper limit is equivalent to a rotation amplitude of 0.68°, which constrains the axion-photon coupling constant to g Φ γ < ( 1.1 × 10 – 11 GeV – 1 ) m / ( 10 – 21 eV ) , if axionlike particles constitute all of the dark matter. The constraints can be improved substantially with data already collected by the BICEP series of experiments. Current and future CMB polarimetry experiments are expected to achieve sufficient sensitivity to rule out unexplored regions of the axion parameter space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mass measurement of 27 P to constrain type-I x-ray burst models and validate the isobaric multiplet mass equation for the $A = 27, T = \frac{3}{2}$ isospin quartet

Background: Light curves are the primary observable of type-I x-ray bursts. Computational x-ray burst models must match simulations to observed light curves. Most of the error in simulated curves comes from uncertainties in rp process reaction rates, which can be reduced via precision mass measurements of neutron-deficient isotopes in the rp process path. Purpose: Perform a precise atomic mass measurement of 27 P. Use this new measurement to calculate rp process reaction rates and input these rates into an x-ray burst model to reduce simulated light curve uncertainty. Use the mass measurement of 27 P to validate the isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME) for the A = 27 T = 3/2 isospin quartet which 27 P belongs to. Method: High-precision Penning trap mass spectrometry utilizing the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance technique was used to determine the atomic mass of 27 P. The MESA code (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) was then used to simulate x-ray bursts using a one-dimensional multizone model to produce updated light curves. Results: The mass excess of 27 P was measured to be –670.7(6) keV, a 14-fold precision increase over the mass reported in the 2020 Atomic Mass Evaluation (AME2020). The 26 Si(p, $γ$) 27 P– 27 P($γ$, p) 26 Si rate equilibrium has been determined to a higher precision based on the precision mass measurement of 27 P. x-ray burst light curves were produced with the MESA code using the new reaction rates. Changes in the mass of 27 P seem to have minimal effect on light curves, even in burster systems tailored to maximize impact. Conclusion: The mass of 27 P does not play a significant role in x-ray burst light curves. It is important to understand that more advanced models do not just provide more precise results, but often qualitatively different ones. This result brings us a step closer to being able to extract stellar parameters from individual x-ray burst observations. In addition, the IMME has been validated for the A = 27, T = 3/2 quartet. The normal quadratic form of the IMME using the latest data yields a reduced $χ$ 2 of 2.9. Finally, the cubic term required to generate an exact fit to the latest data matches theoretical attempts to predict this term.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction from proton-proton to heavy ion collisions

The performance of muon tracking, identification, triggering, momentum resolution, and momentum scale has been studied with the CMS detector at the LHC using data collected at √(s$_{NN}$) = 5.02 TeV in proton-proton (pp) and lead-lead(PbPb) collisions in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and at √(s$_{NN}$) = 8.16 TeV in proton-lead (pPb) collisions in 2016. Muon efficiencies, momentum resolutions, and momentum scales are compared by focusing on how the muon reconstruction performance varies from relatively small occupancy pp collisions to the larger occupancies of pPb collisions and, finally, to the highest track multiplicity PbPb collisions. We find the efficiencies of muon tracking, identification, and triggering to be above 90% throughout most of the track multiplicity range. The momentum resolution and scale are unaffected by the detector occupancy. The excellent muon reconstruction of the CMS detector enables precision studies across all available collision systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A warm super-Neptune around the G-dwarf star TOI-1710 revealed with TESS, SOPHIE, and HARPS-N

We report the discovery and characterization of the transiting extrasolar planet TOI-1710 b. It was first identified as a promising candidate by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. Its planetary nature was then established with SOPHIE and HARPS-N spectroscopic observations via the radial-velocity method. The stellar parameters for the host star are derived from the spectra and a joint Markov chain Monte-Carlo adjustment of the spectral energy distribution and evolutionary tracks of TOI-1710. A joint MCMC analysis of the TESS light curve and the radial-velocity evolution allows us to determine the planetary system properties. From our analysis, TOI 1710 b is found to be a massive warm super-Neptune (M p = 28.3 ± 4.7 M ⊕ and R p = 5.34 ± 0.11 R ⊕ ) orbiting a G5V dwarf star (T eff = 5665 ± 55 K) on a nearly circular 24.3-day orbit (e = 0.16 ± 0.08). The orbital period of this planet is close to the estimated rotation period of its host star P rot = 22.5 ± 2.0 days and it has a low Keplerian semi-amplitude K = 6.4 ± 1.0 m s -1 ; we thus performed additional analyses to show the robustness of the retrieved planetary parameters. With a low bulk density of 1.03 ± 0.23 g cm -3 and orbiting a bright host star (J = 8.3, V = 9.6), TOI-1710 b is one of the best targets in this mass-radius range (near the Neptunian desert) for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy, a key measurement in constraining planet formation and evolutionary models of sub-Jovian planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The JOREK non-linear extended MHD code and applications to large-scale instabilities and their control in magnetically confined fusion plasmas

JOREK is a massively parallel fully implicit non-linear extended magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code for realistic tokamak X-point plasmas. It has become a widely used versatile simulation code for studying large-scale plasma instabilities and their control and is continuously developed in an international community with strong involvements in the European fusion research programme and ITER organization. This article gives a comprehensive overview of the physics models implemented, numerical methods applied for solving the equations and physics studies performed with the code. A dedicated section highlights some of the verification work done for the code. A hierarchy of different physics models is available including a free boundary and resistive wall extension and hybrid kinetic-fluid models. The code allows for flux-surface aligned iso-parametric finite element grids in single and double X-point plasmas which can be extended to the true physical walls and uses a robust fully implicit time stepping. Particular focus is laid on plasma edge and scrape-off layer (SOL) physics as well as disruption related phenomena. Among the key results obtained with JOREK regarding plasma edge and SOL, are deep insights into the dynamics of edge localized modes (ELMs), ELM cycles, and ELM control by resonant magnetic perturbations, pellet injection, as well as by vertical magnetic kicks. Also ELM free regimes, detachment physics, the generation and transport of impurities during an ELM, and electrostatic turbulence in the pedestal region are investigated. Regarding disruptions, the focus is on the dynamics of the thermal quench (TQ) and current quench triggered by massive gas injection and shattered pellet injection, runaway electron (RE) dynamics as well as the RE interaction with MHD modes, and vertical displacement events. Also the seeding and suppression of tearing modes (TMs), the dynamics of naturally occurring TQs triggered by locked modes, and radiative collapses are being studied.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Zircon, Baddeleyite, and Reidite Found in Ries Crater Suevite

Introduction: Impact events can generate superheated impact melts and even vapor [1]. In the past decade, evidence of the high temperatures and high pressures of the impact process has been found in the impact melt from terrestrial craters (e.g., Mistastin Lake [2], Meteor Crater [3]) and even on the Moon [4–5]. Often, these studies involve zircon or zirconium-bearing phases. Zircon is a particularly useful mineral, due to its robustness and durability against weathering. It is used principally for chronology, but it has a multitude of geologic applications, including geothermometry and fingerprinting magma sources. Here we focus on its capability of recording impact conditions. Grains of zircon (ZrSiO4) are converted at high temperature and/or pressure during an impact event to reidite (a high-pressure polymorph of ZrSiO4) or to tetragonal-ZrO2 + SiO2 [6]. Reidite and tertragonal-ZrO2 leave identifying relicts in the rocks, markers of the high pressures and/or temperatures these rocks underwent. Ries Crater is a 26-km-diameter peak ring crater in southern Germany that formed approximately 15 Ma [7–9]. Ries is the type locality of the polymict impact breccia known as suevite. Here, we report a microanalytical study of suevite from the Ries impact structure. These analyses are used to inform our understanding of the pressure and temperature conditions involved in creating a polymict impact breccia such as suevite in a peak ring crater. Sample Description: The sample, denoted 16RS08, originates from Otting Quarry, at 48.8777° N, 10.7921° E, approximately 17 km from the center of the Ries Crater in Germany (approximately 4 km outside the crater rim). The material recorded in sample 16RS08 is therefore considered an outer suevite. The outer suevite is a discontinuous layer of polymict impact breccia that occurs outside the central ring of Ries, up to 22 km from the center of the crater [9]. Lithic clasts in the outer suevite consist primarily of crystalline basement rocks (gneiss, granite, amphibolite), with less than 5% of lithic clasts being overlying sedimentary rocks (limestone, sandstone, shale) [9]. The thin section studied contains variably shocked lithic and mineral clasts, impact glass, and interstitial minerals that make up the matrix of the breccia (Fig. 1) [9]. Methods: We used a Cameca SX100 electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) located in the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the University of Arizona to obtain 15 elemental X-ray maps of 16RS08. We next used the JEOL 7900F SEM at the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to obtain electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) maps of select portions of the section. The EBSD data were collected under beam conditions of 20 kV, and ~9 μA, with step sizes varying from 0.05 to 2 μm. Following EBSD data collection, we processed the data using AZtecCrystal and MTEX, a free MATLAB toolbox. Results: We used the elemental X-ray maps to identify the areas of interest in the section, particularly phosphates and Zr-bearing grains. These areas of interest were then targeted for follow up EBSD and EDS analyses. We have identified, through combined EBSD and EDS analysis, the presence of zircon, reidite, and monoclinic-ZrO2 (baddeleyite) in 16RS08. In 16RS08, we have found singular grains of zircon, zircon with a vermicular baddeleyite halo (Fig. 2a), and granular zircon with reidite (Fig. 2b). The different Zr-rich phases and their corresponding textures signifies that this sample underwent a broad spectrum of pressure and temperature conditions during the impact event. For example, zircons surrounded by a vermicular baddeleyite and SiO2 intergrowth (i.e., Fig. 2a) have been shown to preserve evidence of the extremely high temperatures of impact melt, upwards of 2370 °C [2, 6]. Similarly, reidite and granular zircon (i.e., Fig. 2b) have been shown to preserve evidence of high pressure, as the transition to reidite occurs >30 GPa [3, 6]. Future Work: Next, we will process the EBSD and EDS data for these Zr-rich grains, specifically looking for indicators of cubic- or tetragonal-ZrO2 in the baddeleyite remnants and of shock-precursors to the reidite. To further inform our work, we will also obtain BSE images of these grains using a Hitachi S-4800 SEM in KMICF at the University of Arizona, as well as geochemical spot analyses via EPMA. The data collected will be used to constrain the formation conditions of the Ries Crater outer suevite. Acknowledgments: We thank Ken Domanik and Jerry Chang for their support with data collection. This work was supported by a University of Arizona RII Core Facilities Pilot Program grant and start-up funds to JJB. TME thanks A. Cavosie and N. Timms for assistance during field sampling. We acknowledge support from NASA’s Planetary Science Research program for analysis performed at JSC. References: [1] Melosh H. J. (1989) Oxf. U. Press. [2] Timms et al. (2017) EPSL 477, 52–58. [3] Cavosie et al. (2016) Geology 44:9, 703–706. [4] White et al. (2020) Nature Astr. 4, 974–978. [5] Crow C. A. et al. (2017) GCA 202, 264–284. [6] Timms et al. (2017) Earth-Sci. Rev. 165, 185–202. [7] Schmieder M. et al. (2018) GCA 220, 146–157. [8] Schwarz W. H. et al. (2020) M&PS 55:2, 312–325. [9] Stöffler et al. (2013) M&PS 43:4, 515–589.

Zircon↗

Atomic-Scale Surface Studies of Bulk Metallic Glasses. Final Report

Bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) are of both scientific and technological interest because the absence of periodic atomic arrangements provides them with unique physical, chemical, and mechanical properties. Their high strength, superior elasticity, and an ability to be easily formed into virtually unlimited shapes with feature sizes from centimeters to Angstroms by blow molding and thermoplastic forming makes them an attractive choice for more and more practical applications and products. Due to their complex internal structure, however, experiments that yield insight into their exact atomic arrangements have been scarce. As a result, glass physics is one of the last remaining unexplored fields of materials science despite the scientific and technological importance of glasses in our daily lives, and the question how to characterize and control matter away from equilibrium, as glasses are, was listed as one of five Grand Challenges in a recent DoE report. The main reason for the slow progress in glass physics is the lack of experimental tools that enable access to atomic-scale structural and behavioral information for disordered materials. Such atomic-scale knowledge is mandatory to establish structure-property relationships that ultimately could allow to custom-design alloys featuring specific desired characteristics. With no such relationships available, theory development in glass remains basic and the few that exist are often untested. The aim of this research was to enable progress in our understanding of BMGs by developing a new approach that will allow a meaningful application of local surface science methods to specially prepared BMG samples to obtain a wealth of quantitative information on their atomic arrangements. Key was the availability of specially prepared samples whose surfaces feature large atomically flat terraces despite being entirely amorphous, which we have produced from a Pt 57.5 Cu 14.7 Ni 5.3 P 22.5 alloy (‘Pt-BMG’) both under ambient conditions as well as in ultrahigh vacuum using a unique setup that has been specially developed within this grant. Our approach starts with the in-situ preparation of oxide crystals that are terminated by large terraces, from which exact mirror images out of BMG will be produced using thermoplastic forming (TPF); for the research within this grant, we have successfully used (001)-oriented SrTiO 3 single crystal surfaces as well as (100)-, (110)-, and (111)-oriented single crystals made from LaAlO 3 . Since the resulting BMG replicas display all features of the original crystal with sub-Angstrom fidelity, thereby mimicking the original crystal’s termination by atomically flat terraces without being crystalline themselves, they are ideally suited for further investigation. The following atomic-scale local studies were then carried within this proposal: (i) high-resolution surface imaging and local spectroscopy using scanning probe microscopy, which showed disordered atom-like features and revealed changes in the gradient of the local surface potential on a 1-2 nm length scale; (ii) characterization of atomic-scale plastic flow with affected volumes as low as 1000 atoms, which showed local hardness near or above the theoretically predicted maximum and, once plastic deformation was initiated, homogeneous flow of the atoms involved; (iii) characterization of surface relaxation processes and the onset of crystallization induced by annealing, which showed that upon heating over the material’s glass transition temperature, the surface rearranges and relaxes towards a more stable, denser packed glass, which increases on-terrace surface roughness, while surface tension smoothens step edges; and (iv) studies that investigate the dependence of the material’s mechanical properties and structure on processing parameters, revealing that relaxed glasses get denser, harder, and more elastic. In combination, this information allows to combine structural models with mechanical properties and preparation history, thereby facilitating the development of preparation-structure-property relationships for metallic glasses. With the availability of such information, bulk metallic glasses can be further optimized to be used in more and more applications in industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identification of low-momentum muons in the CMS detector using multivariate techniques in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

“Soft” muons with a transverse momentum below 10 GeV are featured in many processes studied by the CMS experiment, such as decays of heavy-flavor hadrons or rare tau lepton decays. Maximizing the selection efficiency for these muons, while simultaneously suppressing backgrounds from long-lived light-flavor hadron decays, is therefore important for the success of the CMS physics program. Multivariate techniques have been shown to deliver better muon identification performance than traditional selection techniques. To take full advantage of the large data set currently being collected during Run 3 of the CERN LHC, a new multivariate classifier based on a gradient-boosted decision tree has been developed. It offers a significantly improved separation of signal and background muons compared to a similar classifier used for the analysis of the Run 2 data. The performance of the new classifier is evaluated on a data set collected with the CMS detector in 2022 and 2023, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 62 fb -1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Identification of tau leptons using a convolutional neural network with domain adaptation

A tau lepton identification algorithm,DeepTau, based on convolutional neural network techniques, has been developed in the CMS experiment to discriminate reconstructed hadronic decays of tau leptons (τ h ) from quark or gluon jets and electrons and muons that are misreconstructed as τ h candidates. The latest version of this algorithm, v2.5, includes domain adaptation by backpropagation, a technique that reduces discrepancies between collision data and simulation in the region with the highest purity of genuine τh candidates. Additionally, a refined training workflow improves classification performance with respect to the previous version of the algorithm, with a reduction of 30–50% in the probability for quark and gluon jets to be misidentified as τ h candidates for given reconstruction and identification efficiencies. This paper presents the novel improvements introduced in theDeepTau algorithm and evaluates its performance in LHC proton-proton collision data at √(s) = 13 and 13.6 TeV collected in 2018 and 2022 with integrated luminosities of 60 and 35 fb -1 , respectively. Techniques to calibrate the performance of the τ h identification algorithm in simulation with respect to its measured performance in real data are presented, together with a subset of results among those measured for use in CMS physics analyses.

Large detector-systems performance↗

Performance of the local reconstruction algorithms for the CMS hadron calorimeter with Run 2 data

A description is presented of the algorithms used to reconstruct energy deposited in the CMS hadron calorimeter during Run 2 (2015–2018) of the LHC. During Run 2, the characteristic bunch-crossing spacing for proton-proton collisions was 25 ns, which resulted in overlapping signals from adjacent crossings. The energy corresponding to a particular bunch crossing of interest is estimated using the known pulse shapes of energy depositions in the calorimeter, which are measured as functions of both energy and time. A variety of algorithms were developed to mitigate the effects of adjacent bunch crossings on local energy reconstruction in the hadron calorimeter in Run 2, and their performance is compared.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W/sq m, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (0.50 to +1.08) W/sq m during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (0.06 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of 1.45 to +1.29 W/sq m). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

black carbon↗