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At least 163 records · Page 9

Analyzing Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Rain Rate over the Ocean Using Numerical Simulations

In this study, the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and rain rate over the ocean is investigated using a full-physics numerical model (WRF) and a physics-based TC rainfall model (TCR). TC intensity is found to be nearly linearly correlated with the average rain rate in the inner core [~0.97 (mm h –1 m –2 )/(m s –1 )], while the correlation is weak at outer radii. This difference is induced because TC intensity is significantly correlated with both the vertical velocity and specific humidity in the inner core but is not significantly correlated with the vertical velocity in the outer radii. Further investigation shows that the intensity–rain-rate relationship at the outer radii is influenced by the TC evolution stage. The rain rate for the outer radii is positively correlated with TC intensity for nondecaying TCs, while this correlation is reduced for decaying TCs due to systematic downdrafts in the outer radii. In the context of climate change, the sensitivity of the TC rain rate to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be +9% per 1 K increase of SST, roughly the product of the sensitivity of TC intensity to SST (+3%) and the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (+7%). Coupled with synthetic storms, evolution of the TC rain rate over the twenty-first century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected by the TCR (calibrated with the WRF simulations). The annual increase rates of averaged TC rain rate are 0.17% and 0.20% for the inner core and outer radii, respectively, larger than the annual increase rate of TC intensity (0.046%) but comparable to that of cube of intensity (0.18%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational Constraints on the Cloud Feedback Pattern Effect

Abstract Model evidence for the “pattern effect” assumes that global climate models (GCMs) faithfully simulate how clouds respond to varying sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and associated meteorological perturbations. We exploit time-invariant satellite-based estimates of the sensitivity of marine low clouds to meteorological perturbations to estimate how these clouds responded to time-varying SST patterns and meteorology between 1870 and 2014. GCMs and reanalyses provide estimates of the historical meteorological changes. Observations suggest that increasing estimated inversion strength (EIS) between 1980 and 2014 produced a negative low cloud feedback, opposite to the positive feedback expected from increasing CO 2 . This indicates that the processes responsible for marine cloud changes from 1980 to the near present are distinct from those associated with an increase in CO 2 . We also observationally constrain the difference between the historical near-global marine low cloud feedback, , and that arising from increasing CO 2 , . We find that this cloud feedback pattern effect depends strongly on time period and reanalysis dataset, and that varying changes in EIS and SST with warming explain much of its variability. Between 1980 and 2014, we estimate that (90% confidence) assuming meteorological changes from the Multiple Reanalysis Ensemble, implying a total pattern effect (that arising from all climate feedbacks) of 1.86 ± 0.45 W m −2 K −1 . This observational evidence corroborates previous quantitative estimates of the pattern effect, which heretofore relied largely upon GCM-based cloud changes. However, disparate historical meteorological changes across individual reanalyses contribute to considerable uncertainty in its magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Large Seasonal Cycle of Upwelling Zone Sea Surface Temperatures on the Atmosphere

Abstract The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the tropics is the largest in the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Upwelling activity in these regions is maximum during late boreal summer and autumn, resulting in cool SSTs, and minimum in spring, leading to warm SSTs. The fundamental question of how this large seasonal cycle affects the atmosphere has received relatively little scientific attention. In this study, we use perturbed-SST experiments in an atmosphere model to identify the effects of the seasonal cycle of upwelling zone SSTs on the atmospheric state. Although annual-mean upwelling zone SSTs are cool, preventing their convective coupling with the free troposphere for much of the year, their boreal spring warmth can activate precipitating convection. We find that in this season, upwelling zone SSTs affect the atmosphere by 1) altering the intensity and position of the local intertropical convergence zone and 2) inducing a thermally forced Matsuno–Gill response, altering subtropical winds. On the seasonal time scale, the Atlantic upwelling zone is more effective than the Pacific in inducing this response. We also find that, consistent with prior work, the Pacific upwelling zone excites extratropical modes of internal atmospheric variability. Upwelling zone SSTs have remained poorly simulated through generations of climate models; our experiments allow us to diagnose the atmospheric biases that arise in response to upwelling zone SST biases. Our experiments show that upwelling zone SST biases are most impactful in boreal spring, particularly over the Atlantic.

Ramesh, Nandini↗

ERAS: Enabling the Integration of Real-World Intellectual Properties (IPs) in Architectural Simulators

Sandia National Laboratories is investigating scalable architectural simulation capabilities with a focus on simulating and evaluating highly scalable supercomputers for high performance computing applications. There is a growing demand for RTL model integration to provide the capability to simulate customized node architectures and heterogeneous systems. This report describes the first steps integrating the ESSENTial Signal Simulation Enabled by Netlist Transforms (ESSENT) tool with the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST). ESSENT can emit C++ models from models written in FIRRTL to automatically generate components. The integration workflow will automatically generate the SST component and necessary interfaces to ’plug’ the ESSENT model into the SST framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solid State Transformer Controls for Mitigation of E3a High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Insults

This paper explores the use of a solid state transformer (SST) to mitigate the 𝐸 3𝐴 component of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) insult using external energy storage optimal control techniques. In lieu of conventional passive blocking devices or feedback-controlled energy storage devices, a novel implementation of Hamiltonian error tracking is utilized to develop a feedback control law for the variable converter ratio in an SST. The findings of the simulations performed in this paper suggest that additional energy storage is not necessary to protect an individual load from a HEMP insult. The simulations performed examine the response of a single-phase SST connected to a single voltage source on a long transmission line on the one side and a single linear resistor on the other. The control law is specifically developed for the late-time, low-frequency portion of a HEMP insult, namely the 𝐸 3𝐴 components. The Hamiltonian error-based converter ratio control law is compared with nonlinear optimal feedforward controls to show that the HSSPFC is an external energy storage optimal controller.

HEMP mitigation↗

Low modulation index 3-phase solid state transformer

A solid-state transformer (SST) comprises a transformer core, a primary winding, a secondary winding, a primary-side switch bank, and a secondary-side switch bank. Each of the switch banks includes six 4-quadrant switches. The twelve 4-quadrant switches are toggled on and off over six clock cycles in a repetitive sequence with a period that is a function of a desired operating frequency of the transformer. The sequence is configured such that at any given time, 2 of 3 input and output phases are connected to the primary and secondary windings. The SST further includes L-C filter circuits that are configured to filter high-frequency components of current and voltage waveforms such that these components are not back-fed to the electrical mains or delivered to a load. The SST includes a primary-side filter circuit and a secondary-side filter circuit that can each include respective L-C filters for three input or output phases.

Koplow, Jeffrey P.↗

Stacked Low-Inertia Converter or Solid-State Transformer: Modeling and Model Predictive Priority-Shifting Control for Voltage Balance

This paper presents control challenges of stacked low-inertia converter (SLIC) or cascaded reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST) and proposes a novel model predictive priority-shifting (MPPS) control with implicit modulator and a discrete-time large-signal model for voltage balancing and dc-link regulation. Low-inertia converters, featuring small electrolytic capacitor-less dc links, dramatically reduce cost, size, and weight compared to conventional solutions. However, without a large dc-link buffer, the input and output are tightly coupled, leading to significant control challenges. The control becomes even more challenging with these converters stacked input-series output-parallel (ISOP) for medium-voltage (MV) grid, which causes coupling between the modules besides the coupling within each module. This paper analyzes the multi-objective, multi-degree of freedom control problem, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. First, distribution of control efforts under controller saturation is critical because multiple control objectives can be conflicting, especially when the module voltages are unbalanced and are being restored. The MPPS can shift the priorities to address this issue. Second, due to the low inertia and high dc-link ripple, classic space vector pulse-width modulation (SVPWM), average model with small-ripple assumption, and control design based on small-signal model cannot accurately modulate, model, and control the nonlinear reduced dc link. Therefore, a discrete-time large-signal model of the M-S4T is established to derive the predictive control in the MPPS. The MPPS and the PI control are compared in MV simulations to show the issue of applying the PI to the SLIC and the effectiveness of the MPPS for voltage balancing and dc-link regulation in a deadbeat manner. Finally, the proposed control is tested on a 5 kV ISOP SiC SST prototype to verify priority shifting to address controller saturation issue and fast and robust voltage balancing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wave Measurements taken NW of Culebra Is., PR, 2023

Wave and sea surface temperature measurements collected by a Sofar Spotter buoy in 2023. The buoy was deployed on July 27, 2023 at 11:30 UTC northwest of Culebra Island, Puerto Rico, (18.3878 N, 65.3899 W) and recovered on Nov 5, 2023 at 12:45 UTC. Data are saved here in netCDF format, organized by month, and include directional wave statistics, GPS, and SST measurements at 30-minute intervals. Figures produced from these data are provided here as well. They include timeseries of wave height/period/direction and SST, GPS location, wave roses, and directional spectra. Additionally, raw CSV files from the Spotter's memory card can also be found below. NetCDF files can be read in python using the netCDF4 or Xarray packages, or through MATLAB using the "ncread()" command.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

RANS simulations of neutral atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex terrain with comparisons to field measurements

Micro-scale Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over complex terrain and a comparison of the results with conditionally averaged met-tower data are presented. A robust conditional sampling procedure for the meteorological tower (met-tower) data to identify near-neutral conditions based on a criterion for the turbulence intensity is developed. The conditionally averaged wind data on 14 met-towers are used for the model validation. The ABL flow simulations are conducted over complex terrain which includes a prominent hill using the OpenFOAM-based simulator for on/offshore wind farm applications (SOWFA) with the k-ϵ and the SST k-ω turbulence models. The discretization of the production term in the transport equation for the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is modified to greatly reduce the commonly observed nonphysical near surface TKE peak. The driving inflow is generated through an iterative approach using a precursor method to reproduce the measured wind statistics at the reference tower. Both of the RANS models are able to capture the flow behavior windward of the hill. The SST k-ω model predicts more intense flow separation than the k-ϵ model downstream of the steepest sections of the hill. The wind statistics predicted at the location of the met-towers by both of the RANS models are fairly consistent. Overall, the comparisons of the direction, mean, and standard deviation of the wind between the simulations and the tower data show reasonable agreement except for the differences of the mean wind speeds at four met-towers located closer to the main ridge of the hill in a region of strong terrain variations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities. In 2023, the sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached record highs. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data); 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data). The Tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s. Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño, the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of ~0.23°C higher than 2022 and an astounding > 0.3°C above 2022 values for the second half of 2023. The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of synergies in converting underground storage sites: Natural gas to hydrogen with co-located CO2 storage

This study examines the untapped potential of synergistically converting underground natural gas storage (UGS) into underground hydrogen storage (UHS) with co-located CO2 storage. Current approaches to subsurface storage technology (SST) development often prioritise single-use scenarios, overlooking the benefits of integrating multiple technologies. We investigate converting UGS assets into UHS through gradual cushion-gas injection over multiple years, rather than injecting all cushion gas in the first year, and include on-site CO2 storage to offset site emissions. Mechanistic modelling shows this gradual transition reduces the Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of H2 by 1.2-13.1% while retaining energy output within 3% of the current status quo. We also show that combined UHS and CO2 storage hubs can reduce the LCOS of CO2 by 45-77% for only a 3-10% increase in hydrogen LCOS relative to the status quo. This analysis framework may help future-proof SST sites and support a resilient, economically beneficial energy transition.

Mouli-Castillo, Julien↗

CFD analysis of a solid pin-fueled small modular fluoride salt-cooled reactor

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study is performed for the pre-conceptual solid pin-fueled small modular fluoride salt-cooled reactor developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The solid and fluid regions in a 1/12th section of a fuel assembly are modeled. The solid region includes fuel and non-fuel pins, with heat generation in the active region of the fuel pins. Two different power profiles, uniform and center-peaked, are considered. The FLiBe coolant flows from the bottom to the top of the core, parallel to the bank of fuel and non-fuel pins. The k-ω shear-stress transport (SST) model is chosen as the baseline turbulence model. The effects of grid refinement, inlet turbulence specification, and turbulence models on the temperature and pressure drop predictions are studied. Turbulence model sensitivity is investigated by comparing the results from the k-ω SST model with other two-equation models (k-ω baseline or BSL and k-ε realizable) as well as with anisotropic Reynolds stress transport models (linear pressure-strain and stress-BSL). Here the results show that the choice of turbulence model has a significant impact on the pin temperature and bundle pressure drop predictions. The results from the baseline turbulence model show good agreement between the fuel pin temperatures and bundle pressure drop values predicted using a subchannel model previously developed by the authors of the present study.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-fidelity forced convection simulations of the University of Wisconsin–Madison air-cooled reactor cavity cooling system

Among the various types of advanced nuclear technologies that exist, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) stand out for their co-generation capabilities and exceptional passive safety systems. HTGRs rely on a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) to remove decay heat from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during the course of long-term transients. Several studies have focused on experimental and numerical modeling of the RCCS; however, the literature reveals a notable gap when it comes to high-fidelity simulations such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) or large eddy simulation (LES) models of the RCCS. An LES model was developed for forced convection inside the RCCS so as to obtain a high-fidelity representation of the RCCS at a scale never before attempted. Furthermore, the LES model was compared against three different Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models (Realizable k − ϵ, k − ω SST, and Reynolds stress model [RSM]). This comparison verified the robustness and accuracy of the turbulence modeling approach of the RANS models for the RCCS. Finally, based on the comparison between the LES and the RANS models, the k − ω SST RANS model of the experimental facility was developed and compared against the available experimental data.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Observed Global Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Cooling and Primary Production

Tropical cyclones (TC) provide an important source of mixing for the upper ocean, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and triggering phytoplankton blooms. TCs are changing in response to global warming, yet the impacts of those changes on the upper ocean are poorly known. Here we show a significant increasing trend in global TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of 0.054oC per decade since 1982. The enhanced cooling has been driven primarily by an increase in the intensity of strong TCs (maximum wind speed > 33 m s-1) and associated strengthening of TC-induced mixing. Consistent with the enhanced mixing and SST cooling, we find a significant increase in TC-induced surface chlorophyll-a concentration of 3.7 x 10-3 mg m-3 per decade in oligotrophic areas. This enhancement of oceanic primary production by TCs is expected to partially offset its projected global decline under climate change.

Dac Da, Nguyen↗