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DOE OSTI2011

The Effects of Heterogeneities on Seismic Wave Propagation in the Climax Stock

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty requires the ability to detect low-yield (less than 150kton) nuclear events. This kind of monitoring can only be done seismically on a regional scale (within 2000km). At this level, it is difficult to distinguish between low-yield nuclear events and non-nuclear events of similar magnitude. In order to confidently identify a nuclear event, a more detailed understanding of nuclear seismic sources is needed. In particular, it is important to know the effects of local geology on the seismic signal. This study focuses on P-wave velocity in heterogeneous granitoid. The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is currently performing low-yield tests with chemical explosives at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The exact test site was chosen to be in the Climax Stock, a cretaceous granodiorite and quartz-monzonite pluton located in Area 15 of the NNSS. It has been used in the past for the Hard Hat and Pile Driver nuclear tests, which provided legacy data that can be used to simulate wave propagation. The Climax Stock was originally chosen as the site of the SPE partly because of its assumed homogeneity. It has since been discovered that the area of the stock where the SPE tests are being performed contains a perched water table. In addition, the stock is known to contain an extensive network of faults, joints, and fractures, but the exact effect of these structural features on seismic wave velocity is not fully understood. The SPE tests are designed to seismically capture the explosion phenomena from the near- to the far-field transition of the seismic waveform. In the first SPE experiment, 100kg of chemical explosives were set off at a depth of 55m. The blast was recorded with an array of sensors and diagnostics, including accelerometers, geophones, rotational sensors, short-period and broadband seismic sensors, Continuous Reflectometry for Radius vs. Time Experiment, Time of Arrival, Velocity of Detonation, and infrasound sensors. The focus of this study is two-fold: (1) the geophone array that was focused over the SPE shot and (2) a high-resolution seismic profile that was recently acquired at the field site. The geophone array was placed radially around the SPE shot in five directions with 100m spacing and out to a distance of 2 km. The high-resolution profile was about 475m in length with station and shot spacing of 5m using a 7000lb mini-vibe as a source. In both data sets, the first arrivals will be used to develop velocity models. For the geophone array, 1-D P-wave velocity models will be developed to determine an average apparent velocity of the Climax Stock. The high-resolution data will be used to develop a 2-D P-wave velocity model along the seismic profile. This is in an effort to elucidate the water table in more detail and provide additional information on the near-surface structure. These results will be used in the overall modeling effort to fully characterize the test bed and develop a physics-based model to simulate seismic energy from the SPE events.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2011

Astor Pass Seismic Surveys Preliminary Report

In collaboration with the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT), the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) and Optim re-processed, or collected and processed, over 24 miles of 2d seismic-reflection data near the northwest corner of Pyramid Lake, Nevada. The network of 2d land surveys achieved a near-3d density at the Astor Pass geothermal prospect that the PLPT drilled during Nov. 2010 to Feb. 2011. The Bureau of Indian Affairs funded additional seismic work around the Lake, and an extensive, detailed single-channel marine survey producing more than 300 miles of section, imaging more than 120 ft below the Lake bottom. Optim’s land data collection utilized multiple heavy vibrators and recorded over 200 channels live, providing a state-of-the-art reflection-refraction data set. After advanced seismic analysis including first-arrival velocity optimization and prestack depth migration, the 2d sections show clear fault-plane reflections, in some areas as deep as 4000 ft, tying to distinct terminations of the mostly volcanic stratigraphy. Some lines achieved velocity control to 3000 ft depth; all lines show reflections and terminations to 5000 ft depth. Three separate sets of normal faults appear in an initial interpretation of fault reflections and stratigraphic terminations, after loading the data into the OpendTect 3d seismic visualization system. Each preliminary fault set includes a continuous trace more than 3000 ft long, and a swarm of short fault strands. The three preliminary normal-fault sets strike northerly with westward dip, northwesterly with northeast dip, and easterly with north dip. An intersection of all three fault systems documented in the seismic sections at the end of Phase I helped to locate the APS-2 and APS-3 slimholes. The seismic sections do not show the faults connected to the Astor Pass tufa spire, suggesting that we have imaged mostly Tertiary-aged faults. We hypothesize that the Recent, active faults that produced the tufa through hotspring activity do not have enough offset to produce seismic terminations. We are conducting further high-resolution seismic studies (to 200 ft depths) at the tufa spire to test this hypothesis. Additional work in progress includes a collaborative, iterative joint interpretation of geologic mapping and the seismic sections for fault locations, building the geologic model; and 3d velocity modeling and imaging to locate additional faultplane images appearing between the 2d lines. Overall, the seismic exploration program cost less than $0.5M from all funders. It defines in detail the geologic structure of much of the north margin of Pyramid Lake.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods and systems for obtaining reconstructed low-frequency seismic data for determining a subsurface feature

A computer-implemented method for obtaining reconstructed seismic data for determining a subsurface feature, includes: determining an initial training velocity model, training a machine learning model based on first training seismic data and second training seismic data generated from the training velocity model, the first training seismic data corresponding to one or more first frequencies, the second training seismic data corresponding to one or more second frequencies lower than the one or more first frequencies, obtaining, based on measured seismic data and the machine learning model, reconstructed seismic data corresponding to the one or more second frequencies, generating a velocity model based on the measured seismic data, the reconstructed seismic data, and a full waveform inversion (FWI), and when the generated velocity model does not satisfy a preset condition, updating the training velocity model based on the generated velocity model, to obtain updated reconstructed seismic data for determining a subsurface feature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2010

Annual Hanford Seismic Report for Fiscal Year 2010

The Hanford Seismic Assessment Program (HSAP) provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The HSAP is responsible for locating and identifying sources of seismic activity and monitoring changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, natural phenomena hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the HSAP works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The Hanford Seismic Network and the Eastern Washington Regional Network consist of 44 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Assessment Team. During FY 2010, the Hanford Seismic Network recorded 873 triggers on the seismometer system, which included 259 seismic events in the southeast Washington area and an additional 324 regional and teleseismic events. There were 210 events determined to be local earthquakes relevant to the Hanford Site. One hundred and fifty-five earthquakes were detected in the vicinity of Wooded Island, located about eight miles north of Richland just west of the Columbia River. The Wooded Island events recorded this fiscal year were a continuation of the swarm events observed during fiscal year 2009 and reported in previous quarterly and annual reports (Rohay et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, 2010a, 2010b, and 2010c). Most events were considered minor (coda-length magnitude [Mc] less than 1.0) with the largest event recorded on February 4, 2010 (3.0Mc). The estimated depths of the Wooded Island events are shallow (averaging approximately 1.5 km deep) placing the swarm within the Columbia River Basalt Group. Based upon the last two quarters (Q3 and Q4) data, activity at the Wooded Island area swarm has largely subsided. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory will continue to monitor for activity at this location. The highest-magnitude events (3.0Mc) were recorded on February 4, 2010 within the Wooded Island swarm (depth 2.4 km) and May 8, 2010 on or near the Saddle Mountain anticline (depth 3.0 km). This latter event is not considered unusual in that earthquakes have been previously recorded at this location, for example, in October 2006 (Rohay et al. 2007). With regard to the depth distribution, 173 earthquakes were located at shallow depths (less than 4 km, most likely in the Columbia River basalts), 18 earthquakes were located at intermediate depths (between 4 and 9 km, most likely in the pre-basalt sediments), and 19 earthquakes were located at depths greater than 9 km, within the crystalline basement. Geographically, 178 earthquakes were located in known swarm areas, 4 earthquakes occurred on or near a geologic structure (Saddle Mountain anticline), and 28 earthquakes were classified as random events. The Hanford Strong Motion Accelerometer (SMA) network was triggered several times by the Wooded Island swarm events and the events located on or near the Saddle Mountain anticline. The maximum acceleration value recorded by the SMA network during fiscal year 2010 occurred February 4, 2010 (Wooded Island swarm event), approximately 2 times lower than the reportable action level for Hanford facilities (2% g) with no action required.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recent seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano (Mexico)

Magma and related hydrothermal fluid movement, and their interaction with solid rock, in active volcanic regions, generate a wide variety of seismic waves whose characterization can mitigate the risk of a potential eruption. Located in the western region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Ceboruco Volcano, whose last eruptive period was 1870–1875, is considered to be one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. We have conducted a detailed study of the seismicity in the surroundings of Ceboruco's volcanic edifice to assess the current state of this volcano. A dense temporary seismic network with 25 seismic stations in an area of 16 km × 16 km was deployed between November 2016 and July 2017, as part of the P-24 project of the CeMIEGeo consortium; this effort has allowed the detection of 81 earthquakes concentrated beneath the crater with depths between 4 and 8 km. In this study, we observe that the recorded seismicity occurs in swarms, and we specifically identify four sequences that we characterize in detail via the first focal mechanisms available for this volcano. Our results suggest a change in the local seismicity distribution compared to earlier observations, which reported seismic activity near the volcano edifice associated with fluid migration along zones of weakness related to the extensional stresses of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. The changes in seismic patterns and obtained focal mechanisms are consistent with observed fluid effects at many geothermal sites worldwide, but also could suggest resumption of activity at this currently dormant volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Imaging of 3-D seismic velocity structure of Southern Sumatra region using double difference tomographic method

Southern Sumatra region has a high level of seismicity due to the influence of the subduction system, Sumatra fault, Mentawai fault and stretching zone activities. The seismic activities of Southern Sumatra region are recorded by Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (MCGA’s) Seismograph network. In this study, we used earthquake data catalog compiled by MCGA for 3013 events from 10 seismic stations around Southern Sumatra region for time periods of April 2009 – April 2014 in order to invert for the 3-D seismic velocities structure (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio). We applied double-difference seismic tomography method (tomoDD) to determine Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs ratio with hypocenter adjustment. For the inversion procedure, we started from the initial 1-D seismic velocity model of AK135 and constant Vp/Vs of 1.73. The synthetic travel time from source to receiver was calculated using ray pseudo-bending technique, while the main tomographic inversion was applied using LSQR method. The resolution model was evaluated using checkerboard test and Derivative Weigh Sum (DWS). Our preliminary results show low Vp and Vs anomalies region along Bukit Barisan which is may be associated with weak zone of Sumatran fault and migration of partial melted material. Low velocity anomalies at 30-50 km depth in the fore arc region may indicated the hydrous material circulation because the slab dehydration. We detected low seismic seismicity in the fore arc region that may be indicated as seismic gap. It is coincides contact zone of high and low velocity anomalies. And two large earthquakes (Jambi and Mentawai) also occurred at the contact of contrast velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multiple attenuation to reflection seismic data using Radon filter and Wave Equation Multiple Rejection (WEMR) method

Separation between signal and noise, incoherent or coherent, is important in seismic data processing. Although we have processed the seismic data, the coherent noise is still mixing with the primary signal. Multiple reflections are a kind of coherent noise. In this research, we processed seismic data to attenuate multiple reflections in the both synthetic and real seismic data of Mentawai. There are several methods to attenuate multiple reflection, one of them is Radon filter method that discriminates between primary reflection and multiple reflection in the τ-p domain based on move out difference between primary reflection and multiple reflection. However, in case where the move out difference is too small, the Radon filter method is not enough to attenuate the multiple reflections. The Radon filter also produces the artifacts on the gathers data. Except the Radon filter method, we also use the Wave Equation Multiple Elimination (WEMR) method to attenuate the long period multiple reflection. The WEMR method can attenuate the long period multiple reflection based on wave equation inversion. Refer to the inversion of wave equation and the magnitude of the seismic wave amplitude that observed on the free surface, we get the water bottom reflectivity which is used to eliminate the multiple reflections. The WEMR method does not depend on the move out difference to attenuate the long period multiple reflection. Therefore, the WEMR method can be applied to the seismic data which has small move out difference as the Mentawai seismic data. The small move out difference on the Mentawai seismic data is caused by the restrictiveness of far offset, which is only 705 meter. We compared the real free multiple stacking data after processing with Radon filter and WEMR process. The conclusion is the WEMR method can more attenuate the long period multiple reflection than the Radon filter method on the real (Mentawai) seismic data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical modelling of impact seismic sources using the stress glut theory

SUMMARY Meteorite impacts have proved to be a significant source of seismic signal on the Moon, and have now been recorded on Mars by InSight seismometers. Understanding how impacts produce seismic signal is key to the interpretation of this unique data, and to improve their identification in continuous seismic records. Here, we use the seismic Representation Theorem, and particularly the stress glut theory, to model the seismic motion resulting from impact cratering. The source is described by equivalent forces, some resulting from the impactor momentum transfer, and others from the stress glut, which represents the mechanical effect of plasticity and non linear processes in the source region. We condense these equivalent forces into a point-source with a time-varying single force and nine-component moment tensor. This analytical representation bridges the gap between the complex dynamics of crater formation, and the linear point-source representation classically used in seismology. Using the multiphysics modelling software HOSS, we develop a method to compute the stress glut of an impact, and the associated point-source from hypervelocity impact simulations. For a vertical and an oblique impact at 1000 m s−1, we show that the moment tensor presents a significant deviatoric component. Hence, the source is not an ideal isotropic explosion contrary to previous assumptions, and draws closer to a double couple for the oblique impact. The contribution of the point force to the seismic signal appears negligible. We verify this model by comparing two signals: (1) HOSS is coupled to SPECFEM3D to propagate the near-source signal elastically to remote seismic stations; (2) the point-source model derived from the stress-glut theory is used to generate displacements at the same distance. The comparison shows that the point-source model is accurately simulating the low-frequency impact seismic waveform, and its seismic moment is in trend with Lunar and Martian impact data. High-frequencies discrepancies exist, which are partly related to finite-source effects, but might be further explained by the difference in mathematical framework between classical seismology and HOSS’ numerical modelling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Nonlinear Time Domain Seismic Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) Deep Soil Site Methodology Development

Currently the Department of Energy (DOE) and the nuclear industry perform seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis using equivalent linear numerical analysis tools. For lower levels of ground motion, these tools should produce reasonable in-structure response values for evaluation of existing and new facilities. For larger levels of ground motion these tools likely overestimate the in-structure response (and therefore structural demand) since they do not consider geometric nonlinearities (such as gaping and sliding between the soil and structure) and are limited in the ability to model nonlinear soil behavior. The current equivalent linear SSI (SASSI) analysis approach either joins the soil and structure together in both tension and compression or releases the soil from the structure for both tension and compression. It also makes linear approximations for material nonlinearities and generalizes energy absorption with viscous damping. This produces the potential for inaccurately establishing where the structural concerns exist and/or inaccurately establishing the amplitude of the in-structure responses. Seismic hazard curves at nuclear facilities have continued to increase over the years as more information has been developed on seismic sources (i.e. faults), additional information gathered on seismic events, and additional research performed to determine local site effects. Seismic hazard curves are used to develop design basis earthquakes (DBE) that are used to evaluate nuclear facility response. As the seismic hazard curves increase, the input ground motions (DBE’s) used to numerically evaluation nuclear facility response increase causing larger in-structure response. As ground motions increase so does the importance of including nonlinear effects in numerical SSI models. To include material nonlinearity in the soil and geometric nonlinearity using contact (gaping and sliding) it is necessary to develop a nonlinear time domain methodology. This methodology will be known as, NonLinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI). In general NLSSI analysis should provide a more accurate representation of the seismic demands on nuclear facilities their systems and components. INL, in collaboration with a Nuclear Power Plant Vender (NPP-V), will develop a generic Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) structural design to be used in development of the methodology and for comparison with SASSI. This generic NPP design has been evaluated for the INL soil site because of the ease of access and quality of the site specific data. It is now being evaluated for a second site at Vogtle which is located approximately 15 miles East-Northeast of Waynesboro, Georgia and adjacent to Savanna River. The Vogtle site consists of many soil layers spanning down to a depth of 1058 feet. The reason that two soil sites are chosen is to demonstrate the methodology across multiple soil sites. The project will drive the models (soil and structure) using successively increasing acceleration time histories with amplitudes. The models will be run in time domain codes such as ABAQUS, LS-DYNA, and/or ESSI and compared with the same models run in SASSI. The project is focused on developing and documenting a method for performing time domain, non-linear seismic soil structure interaction (SSI) analysis. Development of this method will provide the Department of Energy (DOE) and industry with another tool to perform seismic SSI analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Mortandad Canyon seismic modeling (Progress Report)

The goal of this project is to assess site amplification for LANL through modeling of site and topography effects. Such assessment is difficult due to the lack of data documenting site effects for large normal faulting earthquakes such as the Pajarito Fault System that was found to be governing the seismic hazard at LANL. LANL site is also characterized by unique geologic settings, a series of mesa at the edge of the huge volcanic complex of the Jemez caldera. The latter has produced a series of successive and intertwined deposits of volcanic flow and sedimentary layer. Such layering of material with different elastic properties is expected to create large amplification effects magnified further by the presence at the surface of tuff materials. In 2014, a seismic campaign was performed in the Mortandad Canyon with a network of sensors on and near a local mesa. That campaign was designed to provide experimental data to estimation and prediction of amplification and site effects at LANL. An analysis on the seismic noise records of that campaign shows evidence of amplification of the seismic amplitude for the stations on the top of the mesa. Our goal is to reproduce the effect observed (both retrieving the resonance frequencies and amplification levels). We also plan to test if amplification effects observed for seismic noise can be extended to shaking produced by earthquakes. We are using a 3D modeling tool based on the Spectral Element Method (SEM) that is a particular type of high-order finite element modeling. Two types of seismic sources will be considered: (1) earthquakes for purpose of seismic hazard evaluation, (2) ambient noise. We show 2 series of numerical computations: (1) seismic waves are generated by random sources to simulate ambient noise. (2) seismic waves are planar waves to simulate a distant earthquake. We plan in the future to model rupture scenario on the Pajarito Fault System.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Station Performance of the Idaho National Laboratory Seismic Monitoring Network Using Network Detection Thresholds

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Monitoring Network is located in eastern Idaho and monitors a portion of the intermountain seismic belt. It has been in place for 50 yr and has undergone several major changes, the most recent of which has been the transition to the Antelope real‐time acquisition system and the implementation of automatic phase picking algorithms to aid in analysis. This study discusses the efforts to evaluate the performance of the INL seismic monitoring network (and other surrounding stations) using the new real‐time acquisition system. The method outlined by Wilson et al. (2021) is used to develop an empirical relationship between the observability of local earthquakes as a function of magnitude and distance. This relationship is used to produce detection thresholds for Pwaves for all stations of interest. The INL seismic network has two main goals: monitor tectonic‐and volcanic‐related events and measure ground motions for input into seismic hazard analysis. Because of these two overall objectives, several seismic stations have been installed near critical facilities and, therefore, are not as quiet as stations that are used primarily for earthquake detection. This is reflected in their detection thresholds, which are much smaller for stations away from facilities. This study shows that the INL Seismic Monitoring Network is able to detect earthquakes near INL facilities with M L > 1.2, with redundancies built in to ensure this sensitivity even if data became unavailable from some stations. This study also shows “holes” in the monitoring network where the detection of smaller earthquakes is highly dependent on sparsely placed seismic stations. In conclusion, the results of this study will be used to govern plans for expansion of earthquake monitoring in Idaho and the surrounding region and to fine‐tune the detection thresholds for individual stations.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Landslide monitoring using seismic refraction tomography – The importance of incorporating topographic variations

Seismic refraction tomography provides images of the elastic properties of subsurface materials in landslide settings. Seismic velocities are sensitive to changes in moisture content, which is a triggering factor in the initiation of many landslides. However, the application of the method to long-term monitoring of landslides is rarely used, given the challenges in undertaking repeat surveys and in handling and minimizing the errors arising from processing time-lapse surveys. This work presents a simple method and workflow for producing a reliable time-series of inverted seismic velocity models. This method is tested using data acquired during a recent, novel, long-term seismic refraction monitoring campaign at an active landslide in the UK. Potential sources of error include those arising from inaccurate and inconsistent determination of first-arrival times, inaccurate receiver positioning, and selection of inappropriate inversion starting models. At our site, a comparative analysis of variations in seismic velocity to real-world variations in topography over time shows that topographic error alone can account for changes in seismic velocity of greater than ±10% in a significant proportion (23%) of the data acquired. The seismic velocity variations arising from real material property changes at the near-surface of the landslide, linked to other sources of environmental data, are demonstrated to be of a similar magnitude. Over the monitoring period we observe subtle variations in the bulk seismic velocity of the sliding layer that are demonstrably related to variations in moisture content. This highlights the need to incorporate accurate topographic information for each time-step in the monitoring time-series. The goal of the proposed workflow is to minimize the sources of potential errors, and to preserve the changes observed by real variations in the subsurface. Following the workflow produces spatially comparable, time-lapse velocity cross-sections formulated from disparate, discretely-acquired datasets. These practical steps aim to aid the use of the seismic refraction tomography method for the long-term monitoring of landslides prone to hydrological destabilization.

Whiteley, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Inversion of Time-Lapse Seismic Reservoir Monitoring Data Using CycleGAN: A Deep Learning-Based Approach for Estimating Dynamic Reservoir Property Changes

Carbon capture and storage is being pursued globally as a geoengineering measure for reducing the emission of anthropogenic CO 2 the atmosphere. Comprehensive monitoring, verification, and accounting programs must be established for demonstrating the safe storage of injected CO 2 . One of the most commonly deployed monitoring techniques is time-lapse seismic reservoir monitoring (also known as 4-D seismic), which involves comparing 3-D seismic survey data taken at the same study site but over different times. Analyses of 4-D seismic data volumes can help improve the quality of storage reservoir characterization, track the movement of injected CO 2 plume, and identify potential CO 2 spillover/leakage from the storage reservoirblue. However, the derivation of high-resolution CO 2 saturation maps from 4-D seismic data is a highly nonlinear and ill-posed inverse problem, often requiring significant computational effort. In this research, we apply a physics-based deep learning method to facilitate the solution of both the forward and inverse problems in seismic inversion while honoring physical constraints. A cycle generative adversarial neural network (CycleGAN) model is trained to learn the bidirectional functional mappings between the reservoir dynamic property changes and seismic attribute changes, such that both forward and inverse solutions can be obtained efficiently from the trained model. We show that our CycleGAN-based approach not only improves the reliability of 4-D seismic inversion but also expedites the quantitative interpretation. Our deep learning-based workflow is generic and can be readily used for reservoir characterization and reservoir model updates involving the use of 4-D seismic data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Oklahoma Geological Survey Statewide Seismic Network

The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) monitors seismicity throughout the state of Oklahoma utilizing permanent and temporary seismometers installed by OGS and other agencies, while producing a real–time earthquake catalog. The OGS seismic network was recently added to the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) as a self–supporting regional seismic network, and earthquake locations and magnitudes are automatically reported through U.S. Geological Survey and are part of the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. In Oklahoma, before 2009, background seismicity rates were about 2 M 3.0+ earthquakes per year, which increased to 579 and 903 M 3.0+ earthquakes in 2014 and 2015, respectively. After seismicity peaked, the rate fell to 624, 304, and 194 M 3.0+ earthquakes in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. The catalog is complete down to M 2.2 from mid–2014 to present, despite the significant workload for a primarily state–funded regional network. That astonishing uptick in seismicity has been largely attributed to wastewater injection practices. The OGS provides the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, the agency responsible for regulating oil and gas activities within the state, with technical guidance and earthquake products that inform their “traffic–light” mitigation protocol and other mitigating actions. We have initiated a citizen–scientist–driven, educational seismometer program by installing Raspberry Shake geophones throughout the state at local schools, museums, libraries, and state parks. The seismic hazard of the state portends a continued need for expansion and densification of seismic monitoring throughout Oklahoma.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Geomechanics-Based Stochastic Analysis of Injection- Induced Seismicity

The production of geothermal energy from dry and low permeability reservoirs is achieved by water circulation in natural and/or man-made fractures, and is referred to as enhanced or engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Often, the permeable zones have to be created by stimulation, a process which involves fracture initiation and/or activation of discontinuities such as faults and joints due to pore pressure and the in-situ stress perturbations. The stimulation of a rock mass is often accompanied by multiple microseismic events. Micro-seismic events associated with rock failure in shear, and shear slip on new or pre-existing fracture planes and possibly their propagations. The microseismic signals contain information about the sources of energy that can be used for understanding the hydraulic fracturing process and the created reservoir properties. Detection and interpretation of microseismic events is useful for estimating the stimulated zone, created reservoir permeability and fracture growth, and geometry of the geological structures and the in-situ stress state. The process commonly is referred to as seismicity-based reservoir characterization (SBRC). Although, progress has been made by scientific & geothermal communities for quantitative and qualitative analysis of reservoir stimulation using SBRC several key questions remain unresolved in the analysis of micro-seismicity namely, variation of seismic activity with injection rate, delayed micro-seismicity, and the relation of stimulated zone to the injected volume and its rate, and the resulting reservoir permeability. In addition, the current approach to SBRC does not consider the full range of relevant poroelastic and thermoelastic phenomena and neglects the uncertainty in rock properties and in-situ stress in the data inversion process. The objective of this research and technology developments was to develop a 3D SBRC model that addresses these shortcomings by taking into account hydro-thermo-poro-mechanical mechanisms associated with injection and utilizing a state-of-the-art stochastic inversion procedure. The approach proposed herein is innovative and significantly improves the existing SBCR technology (e.g., Shapiro et al. 2003) for geothermal reservoirs in several ways. First, the current scope of the SBRC is limited with respect to the physical processes considered and the rock properties used. Usually, the geomechanics analyses within SBRC is limited to the pore pressure diffusion in the rock mass, which is modeled using a time-dependent parabolic equation and solved using a finite element algorithm with either a line or a point source. However, water injection induces both poroelastic and thermoelastic stresses in the rock mass which affect the stress state. In fact, it has been suggested that thermoelastic stresses can play a dominant role in reservoir seismicity (Ghassemi et al., 2007). We include these important effects by using a fully-coupled poro-thermoelastic constitutive equations for the rock mass which will be solved using a 3D finite element model with more realistic injection geometries such as multiple injection/extraction sources (and in fractures), uncertainty in the material parameters and the in-situ stress distribution to better reflect the pore pressure and stress distributions. In addition, we developed a 3D stochastic fracture network model to study MEQ generation in fracture rocks. The model was verified using laboratory experiments, and calibrated and applied to Newberry EGS stimulation. In previous SBRC approaches, the triggering of micro-seismicity is modeled base on the assumption that the prior stochastic criticality model of the rock mass is a valid and adequate description. However, this assumption often does not hold in the field. Thus, we improved upon the current SBRC approach by using the micro-seismic responses to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity as well as the criticality distribution itself within the field. In this way, instead of relying on our a priori knowledge of criticality distribution, we combine an initial probabilistic description of criticality with the information contained in microseismic measurements to arrive at criticality solutions that are conditioned on both field data and our prior knowledge. Previous SBRC have relied upon a deterministic inversion approach to estimate the permeability, and the extent of the stimulated zone, whereas a stochastic inversion algorithm that recognizes and quantifies the uncertainties in the prior model, the time evolution of pore pressure distributions (modeling errors), and the observed seismic events is developed and used herein to realistically assess the quality of the solution. Finally, we developed a technique for processing discrete MEQ data to estimate fracture network properties such as dip and dip directions. The approach was successfully applied to the Fenton Hill HRD experiment and the Newberry EGS with results in good agreement with field observations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

New Seismic Monitoring Station at Mohawk Ridge, Valles Caldera

Two new broadband digital seismic stations were installed in the Valles Caldera in 2011 and 2012. The first is located on the summit of Cerros del Abrigo (station code CDAB) and the second is located on the flanks of San Antonio Mountain (station code SAMT). Seismic monitoring stations in the caldera serve multiple purposes. These stations augment and expand the current coverage of the Los Alamos Seismic Network (LASN), which is operated to support seismic and volcanic hazards studies for LANL and northern New Mexico (Figure 1). They also provide unique continuous seismic data within the caldera that can be used for scientific studies of the caldera’s substructure and detection of very small seismic signals that may indicate changes in the current and evolving state of remnant magma that is known to exist beneath the caldera. Since the installation of CDAB and SAMT, several very small earthquakes have already been detected near San Antonio Mountain just west of SAMT (Figure 2). These are the first events to be seen in that area. Caldera stations also improve the detection and epicenter determination quality for larger local earthquakes on the Pajarito Fault System east of the Preserve and the Nacimiento Uplift to the west. These larger earthquakes are a concern to LANL Seismic Hazards assessments and seismic monitoring of the Los Alamos region, including the VCNP, is a DOE requirement. Currently the next closest seismic stations to the caldera are on Pipeline Road (PPR) just west of Los Alamos, and Peralta Ridge (PER) south of the caldera. There is no station coverage near the resurgent dome, Redondo Peak, in the center of the caldera. Filling this “hole” is the highest priority for the next new LASN station. We propose to install this station in 2018 on Mohawk Ridge just east of Redondito, in the same area already occupied by other scientific installations, such as the MCON flux tower operated by UNM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Georgia

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Georgia (2009) is not fully compatible with seismic hazard and design concepts of modern codes. The Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia is currently undertaking an update to the building code to align it with EuroCode. In conjunction with EuroCode, a National Annex specific to Georgia is needed, including seismic hazard values for the territory of Georgia. A comprehensive earthquake catalogue is fundamental to a robust PSHA in the region. The Caucasus has had an uneven seismic recording and reporting history both temporally and spatially. Therefore, there has been a strong regional effort to bring together data from all the countries in the Caucasus, to digitize and standardize paper-based data from the Soviet era, and to re-examine magnitude and location calculations. The earthquake catalogue resulting from this effort forms the basis for a reliable seismic hazard assessment. Recognizing these needs, the U.S. Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2015 to engage and train local scientists in the Caucasus to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, and to improve and harmonize the regional earthquake catalogue. In 2016, the project scope was expanded to include the modernization of seismic hazard assessments. To this end, a series of workshops were held in Georgia, the first one of which presented an overview of PSHA and its components to various participants from the universities and other research organizations in the region. This kick-off workshop was followed by numerous hands-on training workshops in 2017 and 2018, covering all aspects of PSHA. In addition to their training goals, the workshops brought together existing and new information relevant to PSHA studies in the region, providing a platform for local scientists/engineers and experts from other parts of the world to interact, cooperate and discuss various pieces of the PSHA input. This report outlines the aspects of the earthquake catalogue development and PSHA project that were specifically undertaken to form the basis for the building code update in Georgia. Georgia straddles the Greater Caucasus and Lesser Caucasus Fold and Thrust belts, where the convergent tectonic setting generates significant earthquake activity. To the east of the country, evidence indicates the possibility of a remnant subducting slab that causes earthquakes deeper than 40km. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. To this end, six regional workshops were organized in total over a three-year period of time, with participation from the United States, Canada and Hungary as well as countries in the Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. The workshops served multiple purposes such as training, data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linear Seismic Source Equivalents in 3D Nonlinear Models: Effects of Embedded Small-Scale, Near-Source Structures

Gaining a proper understanding of how Earth structure and other near-source properties affect estimates of explosion yield is important to the nonproliferation mission. The yields of explosion sources are often based on seismic moment or waveform amplitudes. Quantifying how the seismic waveforms or estimates of the source characteristics derived from those waveforms are influenced by natural or man-made structures within the near-source region, where the wavefield behaves nonlinearly, is required to understand the full range of uncertainty in those yield estimates. We simulate tamped chemical explosions using a nonlinear, shock physics code and couple the ground motions beyond the elastic radius to a linear elastic, full waveform seismic simulation algorithm through 3D media. In order to isolate the effects of simple small-scale 3D structures on the seismic wavefield and linear seismic source estimates, we embed spheres and cylinders close to the fully- tamped source location within an otherwise homogenous half-space. The 3 m diameters spheres, given their small size compared to the predominate wavelengths investigated, not surprisingly are virtually invisible with only negligible perturbations to the far-field waveforms and resultant seismic source time functions. Similarly, the 11 m diameter basalt sphere has a larger, but still relatively minor impact on the wavefield. However, the 11 m diameter air-filled sphere has the largest impact on both waveforms and the estimated seismic moment of any of the investigated cases with a reduction of ~25% compared to the tamped moment. This significant reduction is likely due in large part to the cavity collapsing from the shock instead of being solely due to diffraction effects . Although the cylinders have the same diameters as the 3 m spheres, their length of interaction with the wavefield produces noticeable changes to the seismic waveforms and estimated source terms with reductions in the peak seismic moment on the order of 10%. Both the cylinders and 11 m diameter spheres generate strong shear waves that appear to emanate from body force sources.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗