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At least 163 records · Page 9

Impacts of Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicles in the United States, 2010 - 2017

This report examines the sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States from 2010 to 2017, exploring vehicle sales, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, and battery production, among other factors. Over 750,000 PEVs have been sold, driving nearly 16 billion miles on electricity, thereby reducing gasoline consumption by 0.1% in 2016 and 600 million gallons cumulatively through 2017, while using over 5 terawatt-hours of electricity. Over 23 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity has been placed in vehicles, and 98% of this is still on the road, assuming typical scrappage rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

California CO 2 Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (C2SAFE): Final Technical Report

The California CO 2 Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (C2SAFE) project conducted a preliminary study into the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage complex located in California’s Southern San Joaquin Valley (SSJV). The work represents the first phase of a multi-phased development approach outlined by the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Carbon Storage Assurance and Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) program meant to develop carbon storage sites capable of permanently storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 , or greater, injected over a typical facility life of 20 to 30 years. This report represents the culmination of work performed under C2SAFE and outlines a phased implementation plan for large-scale, industrial carbon capture and permanent storage in California’s SSJV. The report is meant to be a standalone document and as such provides high-level summaries of all tasks of the project, but is also meant to complement the other three topical reports issued by the project – reports referenced herein. The study considered multiple scenarios including an east-side storage facility, a west-side storage facility, and potential multi-site storage facilities. The east-side storage facility is to be located at Clean Energy Systems, Inc.’s Kimberlina Power Plant, or nearby, and the west-side facility will be located at the California Resources Corporation’s (CRC’s) Elk Hills oil field. The majority of carbon emissions are planned to be captured from existing sources and transported to the selected and verified storage site(s). Capture from the single closest source to the eastern storage facility and the sources within the Elk Hills field would meet the CarbonSAFE storage goal of 50 million tonnes. The study has shown there is sufficient storage capacity to meet this requirement and more; thus, capture from any of the numerous additional large nearby sources would substantially leverage the CarbonSAFE investment. A comparison of preliminary CO 2 capture, transportation, and storage costs to economic value and incentives in the state shows current market conditions make it economically feasible to develop large-scale industrial storage sites in California’s SSJV. The business case for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in California’s SSJV appears economically viable today for large CO 2 point sources involved in the production of transportation fuels, such as oilfield cogeneration units and steam boilers. The overall levelized CCS cost is estimated at roughly 125 per tonne of CO 2 , which includes CO 2 amine-solvent post-combustion capture, transportation, and storage. The levelized CO 2 capture cost is based on today’s technology, with no future cost reduction factored in for technology improvement. The sum of the value of incentives and revenue from California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits (discounted roughly 20% from their current transaction value), sale of California cap-and-trade emission allowances, and Section 45Q tax credits—either for saline storage or the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) credit plus CO 2 sales revenue—is about 165/tonne-CO 2 . The economic viability of CCS for Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plants in the SSJV is more site-specific. A plant providing power solely to the electric grid, if it added CCS, should be eligible for Section 45Q tax credits and could sell its excess cap-and-trade emission allowances, but it would not generate LCFS credits. Using the cost and incentive values detailed in this report, it would not be economical for such a plant to add CCS today, barring other considerations. An NGCC plant within an oilfield (e.g., CRC Elk Hills and NRG Sunrise) that provides power to the oilfield as well as to the grid should receive “partial credit” in terms of generating LCFS credits if it added CCS (pro-rated for the fraction of power going to the oilfield). Such a plant should also be eligible for Section 45Q tax credits and garner revenue from selling its excess cap-and-trade emission allowances. Using the cost and incentive values described in this report, the economic viability of adding CCS today would depend on the relative fractions of electricity supplied to the oilfield and the grid. As the value of cap-and-trade emission allowances grows over time (either by market forces or the escalating floor price), the relative fraction of power needing to remain in the oilfield to achieve “breakeven” would diminish. At some point, even plants providing all their power to the grid would be candidates for economical CCS application. The C2SAFE team has proposed to expand upon the knowledge gained during this study by conducting a detailed feasibility assessment under a follow-on phase of the program, Phase II – Feasibility. This would include detailed data collection at the two sites, analysis, reporting, stakeholder outreach, and risk mitigation activities to support the development of a commercial carbon storage complex in the SSJV.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015-2030)

This report describes the approach and results associated with projecting vehicle attributes for future light-duty vehicle classes and powertrains, from year 2015 to 2030. The focus is the California light-duty vehicle market and the projected attributes include fuel economy, acceleration, driving range (total and all-electric), and manufacturer suggested retail price from year 2015 to year 2030. Attributes are weighted by California vehicle sales, which are projected using a historically validated consumer choice model - the Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) - integrated with a modeling framework that simulates vehicle fuel economy, cost, and acceleration performance while optimizing vehicle components - the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator model (FASTSim). Both models were developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and have been adapted to represent the future California light-duty vehicle market for the present report. The analysis includes several scenarios pertaining to electricity and, essentially, electric vehicle demand in California, as established by the Energy Commission. Results suggest that implementation of certain policies, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, impacts vehicle attribute projections. The results also show that standards and policy targets are not exclusively met by changes in vehicle attributes, but also through shifts in market demand and sales for certain vehicle powertrains.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Incentivizing Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: A Review of Global Policies and Markets

This report summarizes current government policies that seek to increase deployment of light-duty, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States, Europe, and China. The paper also describes recent PEV market trends in these three regions. By comparing combinations of PEV policies and trends of PEV sales in different regions at national and subnational levels, the authors make several observations and draw general conclusions, using supporting examples for the findings. One finding, consistent with earlier studies, is that multiple, complementary PEV incentives and deployment policies are generally more effective in increasing adoption of PEVs within a given market than single policie s. In most regions, financial incentives, especially point -of -sale incentives, are effective in increasing adoption, particularly when generous and combined with other supporting polices, such as increasing charging station availability, which contributes to ease of use. The authors also observed differences in policies and market trends between regions. In Europe, where taxes on vehicles are high, tax credits provide strong incentives for PEV adoption, whereas in several Chinese cities, where restrictions on vehicle registration or use are imposed, relaxation of restrictions on PEVs effectively promote PEV adoption. In addition, governments are replacing some policies based on technical specifications (e.g., battery capacity) with policies based on performance metrics (e.g., vehicle range and electricity consumption rate per distance).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Extreme Temperature Sample Environment for Materials Research Using Neutron Scattering

Extreme temperatures and non-equilibrium materials are both central to Department of Energy’s (DOE) mission of addressing grand challenges in emerging energy and advanced materials technologies. The goal of this project is to develop and perfect a system for studying materials in extreme and non-equilibrium conditions using neutron scattering. Neutron scattering has many advantages in the study of materials structure including the ability to use isotopic substitution to determine partial structure factors. When used at a pulsed neutron source, the potential for event-based detection can enable a stroboscopic technique to interrogate very short lived metastable states in supercooled liquids. The work performed in this Phase I project included: (i) literature reviews and discussions with beamline scientists to establish key requirements for the instrument, (ii) laboratory-based research at Materials Development, Inc. (MDI) to test design concepts, modify control software and model designs, (iii) feasibility experiments and measurements on a prototype sample at the Spallation Neutron Source, and (iv) analysis of the results and design of the proposed Phase II instrument. The results of the work show that the proposed approach is viable and provides a strong basis for the Phase II instrument design and Phase III commercialization. MDI participated in the DOE Commercialization Assistance Program with the Larta Institute (Larta) to accelerate commercial sales of the instruments. The market research identified a served available market of ~13M including sales to beamlines, university research laboratories, and industrial glass and materials businesses. Over the ca. 10 year product life cycle, MDI expects to sell instruments with a cumulative net present value profit of approximately 5M.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Proposed Methodology for Assessing Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. What factors go into assessing available drawdowns? Determining the number of drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. Ideally, it is desired to keep this value greater than 1.0, which is in line with most industry design standards and should ensure cavern integrity and prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0, or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern volumes casused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is presented in this report.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Unpacking the Disconnect Between Wholesale and Retail Electric Rates [PowerPoint]

The 2017 DOE Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability noted a disconnect between falling wholesale electricity prices and flat or rising retail investor-owned utility (IOU) electricity prices between 2008 and 2016. This analysis sought to assess recent trends in utility costs, retail sales, and/or retail rates vis-à-vis wholesale market prices in order to help explain this disconnect. Using FERC Form 1 and ICE Power Indices data, Berkeley Lab researchers developed key annual metrics between 2007 and 2016 at a regional level for five of the seven NERC regions: Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO), Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), and Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). The analyses of these metrics enabled Berkeley Lab researchers to arrive at the following conclusions: Retail and wholesale rates were increasingly disconnected across all included NERC regions; Reductions in wholesale electricity market prices happened concurrently with reductions in IOU fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, but sizable regional differences in the degree of FPP cost reductions existed; Reductions in IOU FPP costs were offset in part by increases in non-fuel operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, but modest regional differences in the degree of these cost impacts existed; Reductions in IOU FPP costs were also offset in part by increases in capital expenditures, but regional differences in the magnitude and type of investments existed; and, Reductions in retail sales tended to mitigate the effect on retail rates from reductions in total utility costs, but regional differences existed that were sometimes counterintuitive and suggest the value in a more detailed analysis of utility costs vis-à-vis general rate case filings and decisions to better understand retail rate changes over time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2020 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report includes an update to the baseline drawdowns for each cavern, and provides an initial assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns

02 PETROLEUM↗

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

2019 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Determining the number of drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. Ideally, it is desired to keep this value greater than 1.0, which is in line with most industry design standards and should ensure cavern integrity and prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern volumes caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report includes an update to the baseline drawdowns for each cavern, and provides an initial assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns

02 PETROLEUM↗

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2021 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPRs ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar - to - diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the caverns drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns .

02 PETROLEUM↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain for E-Drive Vehicles in the United States: 2010–2020

Understanding the battery supply chain is particularly important for the strategic planning and development of a battery recycling infrastructure to secure critical materials supply and enable a circular economy. Argonne has been tracking plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the United States (U.S.) by make and model since December 2010, when the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf were first sold in the U.S. Building on detailed monthly sales data, this report summarizes the manufacturing and production locations of lithium-ion (Li-ion, or LIB) battery cells and packs by make and model for PEVs sold in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020. It also summarizes the annual and cumulative Li-ion battery capacity installed in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) sold in the U.S. Overall, there are about 20 different battery cell and pack manufacturers, which are currently supplying about 20 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of batteries annually for the U.S. PEV market. Panasonic and LG Chem are the largest cell suppliers to the U.S. market. Beyond the U.S, South Korea and Japan are major countries supplying PEV batteries to the U.S. market.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Interpolation data transfer between the models before and after a partial drawdown leach in BH

It has been recognized that as cavern operations become more frequent due to oil sales, field conditions may arise which require a faster turnaround time of analysis to address potential cavern impacts. This letter describes attempts to implement a strategy of transferring an intermediate solution of a Big Hill (BH) geomechanical model from a previous finite element mesh with a specified cavern geometry, to a new mesh with a new cavern geometry created by leaching from an oil sale operation.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Quantifying the Tangible Value of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

The lack of an extensive public recharging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Because charging infrastructure is likely to be underutilized during the early stages of market development, it is difficult for decision makers to decide how much to invest in public charging stations. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure to current and potential future owners of PEVs is essential for estimating the benefits of charging stations to current PEV owners and for predicting the impact on future PEV sales. This paper estimates consumers’ willingness to pay for public charging infrastructure in the context of utility maximization. The objective is to provide a method for valuing charging infrastructure that can inform investment decisions and be used in forecasting models to predict the impacts on future PEV sales. A basic theory of the tangible value of charging infrastructure is developed as a function of PEV type, range, recharging time and existing infrastructure. Existing simulation studies provide functional relationships that quantify the ability of charging infrastructure to enable additional miles of electrified travel. The enabled travel functions are used to predict impact of infrastructure deployment on incremental electrified travel for 1) plug-in hybrids and 2) intra-regional and 3) inter-regional travel by all-electric vehicles. The willingness to pay for increased electrified miles is derived from the willingness to pay for increased electric driving range, based on econometric studies of plug-in vehicle choice. The result is a set of three functions that can be used to calculate the marginal willingness-to-pay for public charging infrastructure as a function of vehicle attributes, existing charging infrastructure, energy prices and annual vehicle travel.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2022 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of a vailable drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the s tructural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite - element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Thermodynamically Stable, Plasmonic Transition Metal Oxide Nanoparticle Solar Selective Absorbers towards 95% Optical-to-Thermal Conversion Efficiency at 750 °C

Generation 3 (Gen) concentrating solar power (CSP) systems requires a high operation temperature ≥750°C to increase the power-cycle efficiency towards ≥50%. However, such a high operation temperature poses a notable challenge to high temperature materials. On the receiver side, a critical challenge is the lack of solar selective absorbers that demonstrate both high optical-to-thermal energy conversion efficiency η therm approaching 95% and long-term thermal stability at >750°C in air. Existing solar absorbers either have limited η therm ≤89% or deteriorate significantly within 500 h at 750°C; some of these also require costly vacuum deposition for stringent thickness control. Therefore, it is highly desirable to simultaneously achieve η therm ~95% AND high thermal stability at 750°C for future generations of CSP receivers. This project has investigated and developed low-cost, highly scalable spray-coated transition metal oxide nanoparticle (NP) pigmented solar selective coatings on various types of Inconel alloy tube sections that are thermodynamically stable at 750-800°C in air, maintaining η therm >94.3%(93.2%) under a solar concentration ratio of C=1000 after 60 simulated day-night cycles at 750ºC (800ºC) (1 cycle=12 h at 750 or 800°C and 12h ramping down to 25°C). We have also coated up to 48 inches long receiver tubes for preliminary solar testing under Norwich Technology’s parabolic trough systems, demonstrating notably improved performance in solar heating compared to benchmark Pyromark 2500 coatings. Two key innovations have been developed in this project: (1) We achieved an unprecedented high thermal efficiency >94% by optimizing the d-band optical absorption spectra of transition metal ions, engineering their valences and stoichiometry; (2) We were able to maintain or even slightly increase the efficiency when operating at 750°C in air by engineering the interdiffusion of transition metal ions between the coating and the Inconel substrate to our advantage. Featuring high-temperature solar spectral selectivity and thermodynamic stability in air, as well as low-cost, highly scalable solution-chemical synthesis and spray coating techniques, this innovation in solar selective absorber technology alone accounts for nearly 40% of the targeted reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from the receiver, thermal energy storage, and operation & maintenance combined by 2030, as proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy. For a 110 MWe CSP power plant, this LCOE reduction from the solar selective coating alone transfers to ~$\$ $1.9 M increase in annual profit based on a sales price of 10¢/kWh (or an annual sale of $50 M/year). The high solar absorptance (~98%) NP pigment materials developed in this project are equally applicable to volumetric receivers either as a coating or as bigger ceramic microspheres after sintering, potentially benefiting Gen3 falling particle CSP technologies. All these contributions facilitate the larger scale deployment of CSP systems with energy storage capability to address the intermittency issue of solar energy towards dispatchable solar electricity, bridging the temporal gap between peak solar electricity production and peak electricity consumption. The collaboration with Norwich Technologies and Brayton Energy in this project will also facilitate the future commercialization of this new solar selective coating technology developed in this SIPS project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗