Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Microgravity Analogues of Herpes Virus Pathogenicity: Human Cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and Varicella Zoster (VZV) Infectivity in Human Tissue Like Assemblies (TLAs)

The old adage we are our own worst enemies may perhaps be the most profound statement ever made when applied to man s desire for extraterrestrial exploration and habitation of Space. Consider the immune system protects the integrity of the entire human physiology and is comprised of two basic elements the adaptive or circulating and the innate immune system. Failure of the components of the adaptive system leads to venerability of the innate system from opportunistic microbes; viral, bacteria, and fungal, which surround us, are transported on our skin, and commonly inhabit the human physiology as normal and imunosuppressed parasites. The fine balance which is maintained for the preponderance of our normal lives, save immune disorders and disease, is deregulated in microgravity. Thus analogue systems to study these potential Risks are essential for our progress in conquering Space exploration and habitation. In this study we employed two known physiological target tissues in which the reactivation of hCMV and VZV occurs, human neural and lung systems created for the study and interaction of these herpes viruses independently and simultaneously on the innate immune system. Normal human neural and lung tissue analogues called tissue like assemblies (TLAs) were infected with low MOIs of approximately 2 x 10(exp -5) pfu hCMV or VZV and established active but prolonged low grade infections which spanned .7-1.5 months in length. These infections were characterized by the ability to continuously produce each of the viruses without expiration of the host cultures. Verification and quantification of viral replication was confirmed via RT_PCR, IHC, and confocal spectral analyses of the respective essential viral genomes. All host TLAs maintained the ability to actively proliferate throughout the entire duration of the experiments as is analogous to normal in vivo physiological conditions. These data represent a significant advance in the ability to study the triggering mechanisms which surround Herpes vial reactivation and proliferation. Additionally, prolonged replication of these viruses will allow the tracking of viral genomic shift.

Goodwin, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Microgravity Investigation of Crew Reactions in 0-G (MICRO-G)

There is a need for a human factors, technology-based bioastronautics research effort to develop an integrated system that reduces risk and provides scientific knowledge of astronaut-induced loads and motions during long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS), which will lead to appropriate countermeasures. The primary objectives of the Microgravity Investigation of Crew Reactions in 0-G (MICRO-GI research effort are to quantify astronaut adaptation and movement as well as to model motor strategies for differing gravity environments. The overall goal of this research program is to improve astronaut performance and efficiency through the use of rigorous quantitative dynamic analysis, simulation and experimentation. The MICRO-G research effort provides a modular, kinetic and kinematic capability for the ISS. The collection and evaluation of kinematics (whole-body motion) and dynamics (reacting forces and torques) of astronauts within the ISS will allow for quantification of human motion and performance in weightlessness, gathering fundamental human factors information for design, scientific investigation in the field of dynamics and motor control, technological assessment of microgravity disturbances, and the design of miniaturized, real-time space systems. The proposed research effort builds on a strong foundation of successful microgravity experiments, namely, the EDLS (Enhanced Dynamics Load Sensors) flown aboard the Russian Mir space station (19961998) and the DLS (Dynamic Load Sensors) flown on Space Shuttle Mission STS-62. In addition, previously funded NASA ground-based research into sensor technology development and development of algorithms to produce three-dimensional (3-0) kinematics from video images have come to fruition and these efforts culminate in the proposed collaborative MICRO-G flight experiment. The required technology and hardware capitalize on previous sensor design, fabrication, and testing and can be flight qualified for a fraction of the cost of an initial spaceflight experiment. Four dynamic load sensors/restraints are envisioned for measurement of astronaut forces and torques. Two standard ISS video cameras record typical astronaut operations and prescribed IVA motions for 3-D kinematics. Forces and kinematics are combined for dynamic analysis of astronaut motion, exploiting the results of the detailed dynamic modeling effort for the quantitative verification of astronaut IVA performance, induced-loads, and adaptive control strategies for crewmember whole-body motion in microgravity. This comprehensive effort, provides an enhanced human factors approach based on physics-based modeling to identify adaptive performance during long-duration spaceflight, which is critically important for astronaut training as well as providing a spaceflight database to drive countermeasure design.

Newman, Dava↗
DOE OSTI2026

Work With Us to Advance Cybersecurity for the Current and Future Grid

The energy sector is undergoing rapid change. Advanced technologies and controls, digitally connected devices, and a mix of generation sources offer increased energy reliability and security, reduced energy costs, and enhanced grid operations. But they can also carry physical and cybersecurity risks that are not yet fully understood. With deep expertise in advanced energy technologies, the National Laboratory of the Rockies is examining the cybersecurity implications of evolving systems and developing cutting-edge tools, novel approaches, and innovative research capabilities to address sector-wide challenges. Together with our partners, we are working to achieve a more secure, defensible, and reliable grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Single-Cell Analysis of Yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) Using Hydrogel Encapsulation

Space radiation poses a major health risk to astronauts. To fulfill NASA’s mission of exploration beyond Earth, the biological effects of Galactic Cosmic Radiation and gamma radiation must be investigated to elucidate cellular damage mechanisms and inform countermeasure protocols to safely bring humans beyond Earth’s magnetosphere. Budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) are commonly used in experiments as a model organism for studying the effects of radiation on eukaryotes. Radiobiology of yeast at the single cell level is poorly understood, yet crucial for informing models to aid in the design and interpretation of experiments. We are using a novel method of microencapsulation in hydrogel particles (PicoShells) to enable analysis of the distribution of radiation-induced damage among yeast cells at the single-cell level, in high throughput. Here we describe the development of methods for culturing, visualization, and quantification of encapsulated yeast. The encapsulated yeast are cultured in Yeast extract-Peptone-Dextrose (YPD) medium, fixed in formaldehyde or ethanol, and stained with DAPI or propidium iodide, then visualized using microscopy or enumerated using flow cytometry, with the aim of developing a protocol to enumerate the distribution of viable cells in each PicoShell. This will allow us to quantify how different forms of radiation can generate different distributions of damage across a population of cells, ultimately providing insight into the biological effects of space-relevant ionizing radiation.

yeast↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning for Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Storm Events

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lunar Dust Mitigation: A Guide and Reference: First Edition (2021)

On the surface of the Moon, lunar dust specifically presents unique challenges to operations long-term due to regolith particles’ ubiquitous presence in the lunar environment, potential to electrostatically charge and possible chemical reactivity. Whether to avoid exposure, try to remove or simply to tolerate lunar dust infiltrating a system becomes a complex question involving length of required service life, dust effects and critical risks, mass and complexity trades for the entire system. This publication provides a snapshot of advice from topical experts for specific areas of concern to systems targeted for deployment on the lunar surface. Following introductory overview commentary, dust mitigation approaches appropriate to the lunar surface are first addressed for typically static structures such as optical surfaces, radiators, and other thermal control surfaces, followed by regolith exposure concerns for communications equipment and non-optical sensors. The broad topic of mechanisms and mechanical assemblies is broken down to address relevant component level concerns, such as for bearings and for seals. “Soft goods” components of space suits (fabric) specific concerns are discussed, followed finally by brief coverage of human health issues and concerns, though the emphasis of this publication remains with components directly exposed to the harsh lunar surface environment. A description of some lunar surface hazard details, in particular characteristics of lunar surface dust, follows in Appendix A, and more detailed explanations of quantification issues for particulates are in Appendix B. The simple inertial removal of particles from a surface is discussed in Appendix C, followed by a summary of terrestrial best practices for dust mitigation recommended within select industries in Appendix D. The aggregated bibliography of references, while extensive and very useful, should not be construed to be exhaustive and can serve as a constructive start.

dust↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wire-break Ignition Testing of Materials for Spacesuit Fire Hazard Control

The input design constraints applied to the extravehicular activity (EVA) spacesuit pose a significant challenge for mitigation of fire hazards. To minimize fatigue and increase comfort of the crewmember operating the suit, the suit pressure is lowered below sea level conditions with typical EVA suit designs operating with 4.3 psia (29.7 kPa). With the lowered operating pressures and the use of closed-loop life support, the suit requires elevated concentrations of oxygen, typically >95%. At these oxygen concentrations, nearly the entirety of the suit internal materials are flammable. This leaves one remaining possible control leg of the fire triangle: ignition sources. Since the Gemini and Apollo programs, this has been a risk that has undergone constant reassessment, with a focus on improved mitigation. After the Apollo I fire, an arc ignition method was developed and used to quantify ignition thresholds for in-suit materials resulting in a current limit for powered in-suit devices applied to all subsequent suit designs. After the discovery of a frayed spacesuit biomed cable on STS-113 during the Shuttle Program, the previous arcing method was repeated with additional methods developed to extend the testing further. One of those methods was wire-break ignition testing, in which the current in a single strand of wire was progressively increased, preheating the material in proximity with a resultant break and the application of a reasonably repeatable arc to ignite the material, all while exposed in the selected environment. This method was used to test a suite of spacesuit materials providing relative performance with respect to ignition with this configuration for application of energy. This paper discusses extension of the current data set to address recent material additions, lowering of energy test levels for quantification of materials too low to measure in previous testing, as well as future plans to improve this method.

Colin Campbell↗
DOE OSTI2026

Risk-Aware Measurement Synchronization and Recovery for DSSE With Heterogeneous Data Sources

Power distribution systems are increasingly integrating heterogeneous sensors with varying data reporting rates and types, which pose challenges to achieving observability at the desired temporal resolution of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Multisensor failures caused by extreme events exacerbate these issues, introducing substantial uncertainties into DSSE. This article proposes a novel solution to these challenges by ensuring high-resolution system observability despite heterogeneous data sources and multisensor failures. First, a deep learning architecture combining long short-term memory (LSTM) and graph convolutional network (GCN) is employed to synchronize meters with different reporting rates, aiming to achieve system observability. A random-walk-model-based approach is introduced to generate pseudo-measurements while properly characterizing their uncertainties under multisensor failures. Finally, a disaster-risk-informed observability metric (RiOM) is defined to quantify the uncertainty associated with state estimation results. The proposed framework offers deeper insights into the system observability on the fly compared with conventional analysis. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated on an IEEE standard test case and a large-scale real-world distribution feeder in mid-Minnesota in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cobalt-Doped Tungsten Oxide Nanoparticles for Electrochemical Sensing and Detection of a Penicillin Antibiotic: Amoxicillin

A sensitive electrochemical sensor for the determination of antibacterial amoxicillin (AMXL) in pharmaceutical dosage and environmental samples was developed, since its residues were found in water, food, and biological samples to pose adverse health risks such as immune–allergic reactions and antimicrobial resistance. WO 3 -based sensors are reported to provide higher sensitivity, selectivity, and stability during the electrochemical reaction. Considering this, Co-doped WO 3 nanostructures were synthesized by the hydrothermal method yielding a mixture of nanoparticle and nanorod structures and applied to the assay of AMXL. Extensive characterizations were carried out by SEM, XRD, TEM, and XPS analysis that confirm the monoclinic crystal structure with a uniform Co distribution in the WO 3 lattice. The optimum doping amount of Co in the lattice is found to be 1.80 at %. The electrochemical performance of the Co-WO 3 /carbon paste electrode (CPE) was evaluated for the determination of AMXL under optimum conditions using cyclic voltammetry, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, and square wave voltammetry. The Co-WO 3 /CPE showed two linear detection ranges at 0.01–0.1 μM with the linear regression I pa = 3.73 [AMXL] + 0.77 with R 2 = 0.96 and at 0.1 to 30.0 μM with the linear regression I pa = 3.76 [AMXL] + 0.69 with R 2 = 0.95. The limit of detection was 9.1 nM (SNR = 3), and the limit of quantification was 30.6 nM (SNR = 10). The sensitivities for lower and higher concentration ranges were 63.22 and 63.73 μA μM –1 cm –2 , respectively. Furthermore, Co-WO 3 /CPE showed high selectivity and anti-interference capabilities. In conclusion, the sensing and disposable Co-WO 3 /CPE sensor showed a great potential for AMXL analysis in spiked soil, water, and Amoxil tablet samples with desirable percentage recovery.

Shanbhag, Mahesh M. [KLE Technological University,↗
NASA NTRS2018

Differences in Pre and Post Vascular Patterning of Retinas from ISS Crew Members and HDT Subjects by VESGEN Analysis

Accelerated research by NASA [1] has investigated the significant risks for visual and ocular impairments Spaceflight Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome /Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (SANS/VIIP) incurred by microgravity spaceflight, especially long-duration missions. Our study investigates the role of blood vessels in the incidence and etiology of SANS/VIIP within the retinas of Astronaut crewmembers pre-and post-flight to the International Space Station (ISS) by NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN). The response of retinal vessels in crewmembers to microgravity was compared to that of retinal vessels to Head-Down Tilt (HDT) in subjects undergoing 70-Day Bed Rest. The study tests the proposed hypothesis that cephalad fluid shifts missions, resulting in ocular and visual impairments, are necessarily mediated in part by retinal blood vessels, and are therefore accompanied by significant remodeling of retinal vasculature.Vascular patterns in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects extracted from 30° infrared (IR) Heidelberg Spectralis® images collected pre/postflight and pre/post HDTBR, respectively, were analyzed by VESGEN (patent pending). a mature, automated software developed as a research discovery tool for progressive vascular diseases in the retina and other tissues [2]. The weighted, multi-parametric VESGEN analysis generates maps of branching arterial and venous trees and quantification by parameters such as the fractal dimension (Df, a modern measure of vascular space-filling capacity), vessel diameters, and densities of vessel length and number classified into specific branching generations by vascular physiological branching rules [2,3]. The retrospective study approved by NASA’s Institutional Review Board included six HDT subjects (NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit [FARU] Campaign 11; for example, [4]) and eight ISS crewmembers monitored by routine occupational surveillance who provided their study consents to NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH). For the initial blinded VESGEN phase, ophthalmic retinal images were masked as to subject identity and pre- and post-status. In the second unblinded phase, VESGEN results were analyzed according to the pre- and post-status of left and right retinas matched to each subject. To complete our study, vascular results will be subjected to NASA biostatistical analysis and correlated with other ophthalmic and medical findings. Preliminary results for changes in the pre- to post-status of vascular patterning in the retinas of crewmembers and HDT subjects are strikingly opposite. By Df and other vascular branching measures, the space-filling capacity of arterial and venous trees decreased in a substantial subset of crewmembers (11/16 retinas). In contrast, vascular densities increased in a substantial subset of HDT subjects by the same parameters (6/10 retinas, currently excluding one anomalous subject). To conclude the study, biostatistical and medical analyses will be of critical importance for investigating the validity of these vascular findings. Vascular densities appeared to decrease in the retinas of crewmembers following ISS Missions, and increase in subjects after HDT. The vascular increases and decreases most likely derive primarily from limits of resolution to the ophthalmic imaging that does not capture the smallest vessels, rather than from vessel growth or atrophy. Differences in arterial and venous response to cephalad fluid shifts induced by ISS and HDT may have resulted from a long-duration conditioning phenomenon (for example, 6-month ISS missions compared to 70-day HDT), or the presence of gravity in HDT compared to microgravity onboard the ISS. To conclude our study, the biostatistical and medical analyses will be of critical importance for investigating the validity and significance of the VESGEN findings.

Murray, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
NASA NTRS2019

Predicting Cancer Risk from Ionizing Radiation

The ability to predict cancer risk associated with exposure to low doses of high-LET ionizing radiation (IR) remains a challenge. Epidemiological methods lack the sensitivity and power to provide detailed risk estimates for cancer and ignore individual variance in IR sensitivity. We have hypothesized that DNA repair capacity can be used as a marker to evaluate and differentiate individual radiation sensitivity. More specifically, this work is based on the concept that the combined time-dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) of p53-binding protein 1 (53BP1) following low-LET exposure contains sufficient information to infer sensitivity to any other LET. Our hypothesis was tested in 15 different mouse strains as well as in primary human immune cells. We first approached individual ionizing radiation sensitivity in a mouse model by culturing primary skin fibroblasts extracted from 76 mice of 15 different genetic backgrounds and exposing them to HZE particles and X-rays. This work is one of the most extensive studies on the kinetics and possible genetic underpinnings of radiation-induced DNA damage and repair. Our results is in agreement with a DNA repair model we previously postulated, where nearby DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in the nucleus are brought together for more efficient repair, leading to RIF clustering. Such mechanism was evidenced by a specific dose and LET dependence of RIF numbers. Briefly, RIF quantification after low-LET X-ray exposure showed an asymptotic saturation for doses between 1 Gy and 4 Gy 4 hours post-irradiation across all 15 strains. The clustering of DSB across all strains also led to more RIF/Gy for lower LET (X-ray and 350 MeV/n Ar) than for higher LET (600 MeV/n Fe) 4 hours post-exposure. Considering the fact that the number of DSB/Gy should be independent of LET, our data suggest there are more DSB in individual RIF as the LET increases. RIF numbers for 24 and 48 hours post-exposure led to the inverse trend, with more remaining RIF/Gy for higher LET (by 600 MeV/n Fe). This result suggests cells have more difficulty resolving RIF from higher LET as they the number DSB/RIF increases. Note that for most conditions, the variance of RIF/Gy was small within individual animals of the same strain and large between strains, suggesting a strong genetics component. Furthermore, we present our preliminary data from an ongoing study on human genetic associations with IR sensitivity. To address the human variability in responses to HZE particle irradiation in a maximally comprehensive manner, we are in the process of collecting and isolating primary blood mononuclear cells from 768 healthy subjects of European descent, 18-75 years of age, 50/50 male/female distribution. We have analyzed 53BP1+ RIF formation as well as oxidative stress and cell death in primary cells from 192 subjects in response to the same HZE particles as used in mice: 600 MeV/n Fe, 350 MeV/n Ar and 350 MeV/n Si, 1.1 and 3 particles/100m2, 4 and 24 hours after irradiation. We will next complete the quantification of HZE particle-induced DNA and cellular damage in the remaining subjects and compare it to their responses to low-LET irradiation. Finally, we will perform GWAS analysis to identify human genomic associations with IR sensitivity and potential targets for biomarker development.

High-LET radiation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Piloted Well Clear Performance Evaluation of Detect and Avoid Systems with Suggestive Guidance

Regulations to establish operational and performance requirements for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being developed by a consortium of government, industry and academic institutions (RTCA, 2013). Those requirements will apply to the new detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems and other equipment necessary to integrate UAS with the United States (U.S) National Airspace System (NAS) and will be determined according to their contribution to the overall safety case. That safety case requires demonstration that DAA-equipped UAS collectively operating in the NAS meet an airspace safety threshold (AST). Several key gaps must be closed in order to link equipment requirements to an airspace safety case. Foremost among these is calculation of the systems risk ratio, the degree to which a particular system mitigates violation of an aircraft separation standard (FAA, 2013). The risk ratio of a DAA system, in combination with risk ratios of other collision mitigation mechanisms, will determine the overall safety of the airspace measured in terms of the number of collisions per flight hour. It is not known what the effectiveness is of a pilot-in-the-loop DAA system or even what parameters of the DAA system most improve the pilots ability to maintain separation. The relationship between the DAA system design and the overall effectiveness of the DAA system that includes the pilot, expressed as a risk ratio, must be determined before DAA operational and performance requirements can be finalized. Much research has been devoted to integrating UAS into non-segregated airspace (Dalamagkidis, 2009, Ostwald, 2007, Gillian, 2012, Hesselink, 2011, Santiago, 2015, Rorie 2015 and 2016). Several traffic displays intended for use as part of a DAA system have gone through human-in-the-loop simulation and flight-testing. Most of these evaluations were part of development programs to produce a deployable system, so it is unclear how to generalize particular aspects of those designs to general requirements for future traffic displays (Calhoun, 2014). Other displays have undergone testing to collect data that may generalize to new displays, but have not been evaluated in the context of the development of an overall safety case for UAS equipped with DAA systems in the NAS (Bell, 2012). Other research efforts focus on DAA surveillance performance and separation standards. Together with this work, they are expected to facilitate validation of the airspace safety case (Park, 2014 and Johnson, 2015). The contribution of the present work is to quantify the effectiveness of the pilot-automation system to remain well clear as a function of display features and surveillance sensor error. This quantification will help enable selection of a minimum set of DAA design features that meets the AST, a set that may not be unique for all UAS platforms. A second objective is to collect and analyze pilot performance parameters that will improve the modeling of overall DAA system performance in non-human-in-the-loop simulations. Simulating the DAA-equipped UAS in such batch experiments will allow investigation of a much larger number of encounters than is possible in human simulations. This capability is necessary to demonstrate that a particular set of DAA requirements meets the AST under all foreseeable operational conditions.

detect and avoid↗