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151 records · Page 9

Apparent dust size discrepancy in aerosol reanalysis in north African dust after long-range transport

North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of water, diet, and temperature on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in fin spines of juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus

Analysis of microchemistry in fish fin spines offers a non-lethal approach to address key questions relating to spatial patterns and habitat use of fish. Reconstruction of life history is based on chemical changes within calcified structures with an underlying assumption of elemental incorporation relative to environmental concentration. However, information is limited on the relative influence of water and diet concentrations of elements to corresponding concentrations within fin spines. Strontium (Sr) is commonly used in trace element studies because of its predictable changes within watersheds, with recent applications showing utility of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr for greater spatial resolution. Therefore, this study evaluated the influence of water and diet 87 Sr/ 86 Sr on pectoral fin spines of Atlantic Sturgeon A. oxyrinchus oxyrinchus in controlled laboratory experiments. In the first experiment, fish were exposed to a control, water spiked with 0.10 mg/L of 87 Sr or diet spiked with 0.25 µg/g or 0.50 µg/g of 87 Sr in replicated tanks for 12 weeks. In a second experiment, to determine the time duration required to occupy a different environment for fin spine chemistry to change, fish were maintained in water- or diet-spiked treatments for 1, 2, 3, or 6 weeks. Additionally, to determine if temperature has an influence on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in fin spines, fish were held at 15 and 25°C for 12 weeks. Fin spines were analyzed using laser ablation multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-MC-ICP-MS), and water and diet samples were analyzed using solution based ICP-MS. Results from Experiment 1 indicate water is the primary contributor and diet a secondary contributor of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in pectoral fin spines of Atlantic Sturgeon. Results from Experiment 2 indicate fin spine 87 Sr/ 86 Sr can be influenced by water after 1 week and diet after 12 weeks. Additionally, although sample size was limited (n=3), water temperature did not have an effect on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr fin spine chemistry. In conclusion, these results provide guidance for interpretation of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in pectoral fin spines of sturgeon and indicate usefulness of the technique for retrospectively estimating movement and habitat use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental impacts of dam reservoir filling in the East Amazon

Mitigating the environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric dams is a worldwide challenge. The aquatic ecosystem is the most impacted during the reservoir filling phase, yet biogeochemical dynamics at this stage are not well-studied. Here we evaluate water quality and hydraulic parameters in the Araguari River (Amapá/Brazil) during the filling of the Ferreira Gomes Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (UHEFG). Five field campaigns were performed from July 2014 to August 2015 across nine sample sites within the reservoir (P1, P2, …P9) and only one downstream (P10). The following key variables were monitored: Trophic State Index (TSI), Total Coliforms (TC), E. coli (EC) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), along with physical and chemical variables (Temperature, Suspended Solids, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity, Turbidity, Color, pH, DO, Al3+, NH4+, Cl-, Mg1+, Ca2+, total Phosphorous, NH3, NO3-, and SO42). Besides that, hydraulic-operational variables were also investigated: inflows (Qa), outflows (Qd), and variation in reservoir volume (Vol%). Multiple Regression Analyses showed that the key parameters were both significantly influenced by physio-chemical and hydraulic variables (0.46=R2adj=0.99, p<0.05). The DO showed significant spatial variation, being influenced by the turbulence from the Coaracy Nunes dam (UHECN) upstream and the UHEFG dam downstream. The Vol% influenced the TSI, which ranged from oligotrophic to hypertrophic and eventually stabilized at mesotrophic. The levels of TSI, TC, and Chl-a decreased and the level of E. coli increased (p<0.05) as a function of Vol%. A Cluster Analysis showed the formation of three spatial groups - two inside the reservoir and one downstream (P10). This suggests that in the rainy season or transition season, the hydraulic residence time in the reservoir is very low (16 = thr = 36 h) when hydrodynamic processes are dominant. In the dry season (thr ˜ 1 month), biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes occur at similar time scales to the nutrient and microbial abundance. These results confirm the hypothesis that the filling phase has significant impacts on the key parameters of the water quality (p<0.05). We conclude that the filling phase of the UHEFG reservoir generated significant environmental impacts, which have repercussions even retrospectively.

Amazon, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, extreme event,↗

Opportunities to Implement Solutions to Achieve Remedial Action Objectives in Consideration of Stakeholder Interests - 20365

A case study in the implementation of a soils excavation and removal project conducted at a Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Maywood Superfund Site (FMSS) vicinity property; an active commercial business, in a densely populated area, with significant operational, technical and, logistical constraints that were expected to limit areas that could be remediated. The United States Army Corps of Engineers-led (USACE) team successfully navigated complex overlapping stakeholder interests to achieve a more efficient and complete removal of contaminated soils and debris while minimizing unnecessary excess costs to the Government. This paper centers on FUSRAP activities at the FMSS vicinity property located at 149-151 Maywood Avenue, Maywood, Bergen County, New Jersey. For most of its FUSRAP history, this ∼109,000 square meter (27-acre) property housed a now-demolished ∼26,000 square meter (6.5-acre) warehouse operated by Sears Logistics Services, a unit of the Sears Roebuck Company (Figure 2). Sears ended its property lease and vacated the warehouse in December 2016. Given that long history and for the purposes of this paper, the property will be referred to as the 'Sears property' or simply 'the property.' The Sears property is approximately 109,000 square meters (27-acres) and is currently zoned for commercial use. The property is bound to the north and northwest by 100 West Hunter Avenue (the Stepan Company), to the northeast by 205 Maywood Avenue, to the east by Maywood Avenue, to the south by 23 West Howcroft Road, and to the west by businesses on NJ Route 17 and the NJ Route 17 roadway. Until December 2016, the property housed a warehouse and distribution center operated by Sears Logistical Services. On-site structures were demolished by the property owner in 2017. The warehouse covered the north section of the property along the Stepan Company property line. A railroad spur from the adjacent property now known as the Maywood Interim Storage Site (MISS) ended at the northeast corner of the warehouse. Wetlands were located east of the warehouse; the rest of the property was covered with paved parking lots and grassed areas. During remediation at the property, opportunities frequently arose where the project team was able to coordinate effectively with stakeholders to sequence remediation activities to facilitate removal of otherwise inaccessible soils and identify opportunities for materials reuse when supported by residual radiological and chemical levels. Some specific opportunities include: - remediating individual truck loading dock bays to maintain tenant operations; - working along a busy highway and in a utility corridor containing a 30-inch high pressure gas main; - remediating Lodi Brook and associated wetlands requiring bypass pumping and other diversionary structures to maintain local community stormwater drainage; - protecting during remediation and supporting access to facilitate tenant/owner maintenance of critical fire protection and water supply system service lines buried in contaminated soils and necessary for safe warehouse operations; and - coordinating with stakeholders to ensure non-radiological contaminants of concern for the site (unaffiliated with FUSRAP) were addressed by the responsible party in a manner that maximized benefit to all parties while supporting an efficient overall site remediation program. Once the property was vacant and the warehouse structure and radiologically non-impacted above-grade structures were demolished, the project identified an opportunity to significantly reduce the volume of waste associated with the foundation of the former warehouse, a foundation suspected of being partially constructed in radiologically contaminated soils. The project developed and implemented supplemental radiological verification survey and sampling strategies based on radiological cross-contamination risk potential with process flow-charts and screening-level based decision points; a program that classified saw-cut sections of concrete based on observed residual surface radioactivity conditions using a combination of gamma sensitive sodium-iodide scans and beta sensitive Geiger-Muller direct measurements. The proposed approach was reviewed with stakeholders with feedback, including consideration of applicable State of New Jersey Site Remediation Program criteria and guidance before implementation. Once classified, additional sampling was performed at frequencies driven by screening. The sampling methods, stockpile sampling frequencies, criteria and, approach to data evaluation were developed in consideration of existing site cleanup standards, regional background ranges, State of New Jersey radiological remediation program guidance, and specific stakeholder input With the property remediation and survey efforts nearly completed, it is relevant to examine retrospectively the objectives, assumptions and limitations in the remedial design (i.e., what was planned) versus what was able to be accomplished through effective teaming. Benefits to other environmental remediation site programs include better understanding of how to work effectively with stakeholders to achieve win-win outcomes, and approaches to site remediation, waste minimization and materials reuse that were successful in their overall outcomes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗