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At least 163 records · Page 9

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud-atmosphere impacts on the central Arctic surface energy budget (Final Report)

This project investigated how clouds and atmosphere-sea ice interactions shape the central Arctic surface energy budget using observations from the MOSAiC expedition and coordinated model experiments. Analyses focused on three themes. First, a new method applied to thermistor string data revealed that snow thermal conductivity is systematically higher than assumed in most models, strongly influencing conductive heat flux and sea ice growth, especially under clear skies. Second, a full annual cycle of surface energy budget observations, combined with detailed cloud microphysical retrievals, demonstrated how cloud regimes regulate radiative, turbulent, and conductive fluxes, driving seasonal contrasts in sea ice energy balance: in winter, radiative forcing elicits strong turbulent and conductive responses, while in summer excess energy is primarily partitioned into surface melt. Third, these observations were used to evaluate and improve regional and global forecast models. While some models captured key Arctic cloud-radiation states, most exhibited persistent deficiencies in representing liquid-containing clouds, snow-on-sea-ice processes, and flux responses to radiative forcing. Together, these results provide unprecedented benchmarks for understanding coupled Arctic processes, improve parameterizations of snow, sea ice, and cloud interactions, and highlight critical pathways by which atmospheric variability drives sea ice change in a rapidly evolving Arctic system. Lastly, the project was a resounding success, resulting in 38 peer-reviewed publications and dozens of presentations, while also supporting an early career scientist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FLARE: field line analysis and reconstruction for 3D boundary plasma modeling

The FLARE code is a magnetic mesh generator that is integrated within a suite of tools for the analysis of the magnetic geometry in toroidal fusion devices. A magnetic mesh is constructed from field line segments and permits fast reconstruction of field lines in 3D boundary plasma codes such as EMC3-EIRENE. Both intrinsically non-axisymmetric configurations (stellarators) and those with symmetry breaking perturbations of an axisymmetric equilibrium (tokamaks) are supported. The code itself is written in Modern Fortran with MPI support for parallel computing, and it incorporates object-oriented programming for the definition of the magnetic field and the material surface geometry. Extended derived types for a number of different magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and plasma response models are implemented. The core element of FLARE is a field line tracer with adaptive step-size control, and this is integrated into tools for the construction of Poincaré maps and invariant manifolds of X-points. A collection of high-level procedures that generate output files for visualization is build on top of that. The analysis modules are build with Python frontends that facilitate customization of tasks and/or scripting of parameter scans.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Practical CO2—WAG Field Operational Designs Using Hybrid Numerical-Machine-Learning Approaches

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO2-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Response of extreme precipitation to uniform surface warming in quasi-global aquaplanet simulations at high resolution

Projections of precipitation extremes in simulations with global climate models are very uncertain in the tropics, in part because of the use of parameterizations of deep convection and model deficiencies in simulating convective organization. Here, we analyse precipitation extremes in high-resolution simulations that are run without a convective parameterization on a quasi-global aquaplanet. The frequency distributions of precipitation rates and precipitation cluster sizes in the tropics of a control simulation are similar to the observed distributions. In response to climate warming, 3 h precipitation extremes increase at rates of up to 9 % K - 1 in the tropics because of a combination of positive thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The dynamic contribution at different latitudes is connected to the vertical structure of warming using a moist static stability. When the precipitation rates are first averaged to a daily timescale and coarse-grained to a typical global climate-model resolution prior to calculating the precipitation extremes, the response of the precipitation extremes to warming becomes more similar to what was found previously in coarse-resolution aquaplanet studies. However, the simulations studied here do not exhibit the high rates of increase of tropical precipitation extremes found in projections with some global climate models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Targeting a cell surface vitamin D receptor on tumor-associated macrophages in triple-negative breast cancer

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive tumor with limited treatment options and poor prognosis. We applied the in vivo phage display technology to isolate peptides homing to the immunosuppressive cellular microenvironment of TNBC as a strategy for non-malignant target discovery. We identified a cyclic peptide (CSSTRESAC) that specifically binds to a vitamin D receptor, protein disulfide-isomerase A3 (PDIA3) expressed on the cell surface of tumor-associated macrophages (TAM), and targets breast cancer in syngeneic TNBC, non-TNBC xenograft, and transgenic mouse models. Systemic administration of CSSTRESAC to TNBC-bearing mice shifted the cytokine profile toward an antitumor immune response and delayed tumor growth. Moreover, CSSTRESAC enabled ligand-directed theranostic delivery to tumors and a mathematical model confirmed our experimental findings. Finally, in silico analysis showed PDIA3-expressing TAM in TNBC patients. This work uncovers a functional interplay between a cell surface vitamin D receptor in TAM and antitumor immune response that could be therapeutically exploited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Confronting the water potential information gap

Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land-surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. Here, we end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a road map for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the ‘potential’ to substantially reduce conceptual and modelling uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding Reaction Networks through Controlled Approach to Equilibrium Experiments Using Transient Methods

We report a combined experimental/theoretical approach to studying heterogeneous gas/solid catalytic processes using low-pressure pulse response experiments achieving a controlled approach to equilibrium that combined with quantum mechanics (QM)-based computational analysis provides information needed to reconstruct the role of the different surface reaction steps. We demonstrate this approach using model catalysts for ammonia synthesis/decomposition. Polycrystalline iron and cobalt are studied via low-pressure TAP (temporal analysis of products) pulse response, with the results interpreted through reaction free energies calculated using QM on Fe-BCC(110), Fe-BCC(111), and Co-FCC(111) facets. In TAP experiments, simultaneous pulsing of ammonia and deuterium creates a condition where the participation of reactants and products can be distinguished in both forward and reverse reaction steps. This establishes a balance between competitive reactions for D* surface species that is used to observe the influence of steps leading to nitrogen formation as the nitrogen product remains far from equilibrium. Here, the approach to equilibrium is further controlled by introducing delay timing between NH 3 and D 2 which allows time for surface reactions to evolve before being driven in the reverse direction from the gas phase. The resulting isotopic product distributions for NH 2 D, NHD 2 , and HD at different temperatures and delay times and NH 3 /D 2 pulsing order reveal the role of the N 2 formation barrier in controlling the surface concentration of NH x * species, as well as providing information on the surface lifetimes of key reaction intermediates. Conclusions derived for monometallic materials are used to interpret experimental results on a more complex and active CoFe bimetallic catalyst.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The surface stress of biomedical silicones is a stimulant of cellular response

Silicones are commonly used for lubrication of syringes, encapsulation of medical devices, and fabrication of surgical implants. While silicones are generally viewed as relatively inert to the cellular milieu, they can mediate a variety of inflammatory responses and other deleterious effects, but the mechanisms underlying the bioactivity of silicones remain unresolved. Here, we report that silicone liquids and gels have high surface stresses that can strongly resist deformation at cellular length scales. Biomedical silicones, including syringe lubricants and fillings from FDA-approved breast implants, readily adsorb matrix proteins and activate canonical rigidity sensing pathways through their surface stresses. In 3D culture models, liquid silicone droplets support robust cellular adhesion and the formation of multinucleated monocyte-derived cell masses that recapitulate phenotypic aspects of granuloma formation in the foreign body response. Together, our findings implicate surface stress as a cellular stimulant that should be considered in application of silicones for biomedical purposes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RCEMIP‐ACI: Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Aerosol‐cloud interactions are a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. This study presents findings from a model intercomparison project examining the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate in convection‐permitting radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. Specifically, 11 different modeling teams conducted RCE simulations under varying aerosol concentrations, domain configurations, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We analyze the response of domain‐mean cloud and radiative properties to imposed aerosol concentrations across different SSTs. Additionally, we explore the potential impact of aerosols on convective aggregation and large‐scale circulation in large‐domain simulations. The results reveal that the cloud and radiative responses to aerosols vary substantially across models. However, a common trend across models, SSTs, and domain configurations is that increased aerosol loading tends to suppress warm rain formation, enhance cloud water content in the mid‐troposphere, and consequently increase mid‐tropospheric humidity and upper‐tropospheric temperature, thereby impacting static stability. The warming of the upper troposphere can be attributed to reduced lateral entrainment effects due to the higher environmental humidity in the mid‐troposphere. However, models do not agree on aerosol impacts on convective updraft velocity based on the preliminary examination of high‐percentiles of vertical velocity at a single mid‐troposheric layer (500 hPa). In large‐domain simulations, where convection tends to self‐organize, aerosol loading does not consistently influence self‐organization but tends to reduce the intensity of large‐scale circulation forming between convective clusters and dry regions. This reduction in circulation intensity can be explained by the increase in static stability due to the upper tropospheric warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Interactive Effects of Manganese Bioavailability, Nitrogen Deposition, and Warming on Soil Carbon Storage

Manganese (Mn) is a redox–active micronutrient that has been shown to accelerate plant litter decomposition; however, the effect of Mn–promoted decomposition on soil C storage is unclear. We present a novel biogeochemical model simulating how Mn bioavailability influences soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a soil profile (<50 cm) within a temperate forest. In our model, foliar Mn increased in response to increasing soluble Mn released through Mn–oxide (birnessite) dissolution in mineral soil layers. The ensuing Mn enrichment in leaf litter redistributed Mn to the surface forest floor layer, promoted enzymatic oxidation of lignin, and decreased SOC stocks. Total SOC loss was partially mitigated by accumulation of lignin–oxidation products as mineral–associated organic C. We also explored how Mn–driven changes to C storage interacted with effects of N deposition and warming. Nitrogen enrichment inhibited Mn–dependent lignin degradation, increasing SOC stocks and weakening their dependence on Mn bioavailability. Warming stimulated decomposition and reduced C stocks but was less effective at low Mn bioavailability. Our model results suggest that SOC stocks are sensitive to Mn bioavailability because increased plant uptake redistributes Mn to surface soils where it can enhance litter decomposition. Finally, based on our simulations, we predict that Mn becomes limiting to litter decomposition where Mn is poorly soluble. Depletion of bioavailable Mn or other cofactors that are critical to decomposition could limit the response of organic C stocks to warming over time, but quantitative projections of the role of Mn bioavailability in regulating decomposition requires additional measurements to constrain model uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrating Arctic Plant Functional Types in a Land Surface Model Using Above‐ and Belowground Field Observations

Abstract Accurate simulations of high‐latitude ecosystems are critical for confident Earth system model (ESM) projections of carbon cycle feedbacks to global climate change. Land surface model components of ESMs, including the E3SM Land Model (ELM), simulate vegetation growth and ecosystem responses to changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by grouping heterogeneous vegetation into like sets of plant functional types (PFTs). Many such models represent high‐latitude vegetation using only two PFTs (shrub and grass), thereby missing the diversity of vegetation growth forms and functional traits in the Arctic. Here, we use field observations of biomass and leaf traits across a gradient of plant communities on the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska to replace the original ELM configuration for the first time with nine Arctic‐specific PFTs. The newly developed PFTs include: (1) nonvascular mosses and lichens, (2) deciduous and evergreen shrubs of various height classes, including an alder PFT, (3) graminoids, and (4) forbs. Improvements relative to the original model configuration included greater belowground biomass allocation, persistent fine roots and rhizomes of nonwoody plants, and better representation of variability in total plant biomass across sites with varying plant communities and depth to bedrock. Simulations through 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario and constant PFT fractional areas showed alder‐dominated plant communities gaining more biomass and lichen‐dominated communities gaining less biomass compared to default PFTs. Our results highlight how representing the diversity of arctic vegetation and confronting models with measurements from varied plant communities improves the representation of arctic vegetation in terrestrial ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO 2

Persistent precipitation deficits are among the most impactful consequences of global warming. Here we focus on changes in the annual number of dry days (NDD) and in the annual maximum length of dry spells due to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 . We use atmosphere-only simulations to decompose the projected changes into additive contributions. A fast adjustment leads to a global increase in NDD despite notable regional exceptions (e.g., South Asia and Sahel). The effect of the uniform component of the surface ocean warming is model-dependent but shapes the regional distribution of the NDD response in each model. Finally, the ocean warming pattern also contributes to large uncertainties, likely through contrasting changes in large-scale circulation. Our results thus highlight the complexity of the NDD response, with policy-relevant practical implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Rainfall on Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. While the winds associated with TCs tend to enhance mixing in the upper-ocean, the freshwater input from rain can stratify the water column and limit mixing. However, the extent to which the stabilizing effect of rainfall can compete with wind-induced mixing, and to what degree it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remains unknown. Here we show, using a suite of observations, that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them. Additionally, when compared to storms with low rain rates, the ocean surface under TCs with high rain rates freshens significantly and cools less. High-resolution climate model simulations and idealized experiments with an ocean mixed layer model support these results and reveal that oceanic mixing processes are primarily responsible for the reduced cooling under TCs, with a lesser role for surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dispersion of modified fumed silica in elastomeric nanocomposites

In polymer nanocomposites, surface modification of silica aggregates can shield Coulombic interactions that inhibit agglomeration and formation of a network of agglomerates. Surface modification is usually achieved with silane coupling agents although carbon-coating during pyrolytic silica production is also possible. Pyrogenic silica with varying surface carbon contents were dispersed in styrene-butadiene (SBR) rubber to explore the impact on hierarchical dispersion, the emergence of meso-scale structures, and the rheological response. Pristine pyrogenic silica aggregates at concentrations above a critical value (related to the Debye screening length) display correlated meso-scale structures and poor filler network formation in rubber nanocomposites due to the presence of silanol groups on the surface. Here, in the present study, flame synthesized silica with sufficient surface carbon monolayers can mitigate the charge repulsion thereby impacting network structural emergence. The impact of the surface carbon on the van der Waals enthalpic attraction, a * , is determined. The van der Waals model for polymer nanocomposites is drawn through an analogy between thermal energy, k B T, and the accumulated strain, γ. The rheological response of the emergent meso-scale structures depends on the surface density of both carbon and silanol groups.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗